What might Hezbollah, Israel and Iran do next? | BBC News
Summary
TLDRThe assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has heightened tensions in the Middle East, potentially escalating to a broader conflict. Hezbollah, despite losses, vows to retaliate, posing a threat to Israel and Lebanon. Iran, also reeling from the loss, may incite its allied militias to action. Israel continues military operations against Hezbollah, with the possibility of a ground invasion into Lebanon. The situation is tense, with international implications and the potential to significantly alter the regional landscape.
Takeaways
- ⚔️ The Middle East is on the brink of a larger regional war due to the assassination of a key figure, which has escalated tensions.
- 💥 Hezbollah’s leadership has been decimated, and much of its infrastructure has been destroyed, but the group vows to continue fighting Israel.
- 🚀 Hezbollah still has a significant missile arsenal capable of reaching Tel Aviv, and there is internal pressure to use these before they are destroyed.
- 🇮🇱 Israel is pressing on with its military campaign against Hezbollah and may soon initiate a ground invasion into Lebanon to neutralize Hezbollah's missile threat.
- 🇮🇷 Iran has been significantly affected by the assassination and is expected to coordinate a response through its network of allied militias across the region.
- 🧭 Iran is likely to calibrate its response to avoid triggering a war it cannot win while still seeking to avenge the blow to its influence and prestige.
- 🔗 Hezbollah remains a formidable force in Lebanon despite its losses, with political, military, and social influence that extends deep into the country.
- 👥 Public sentiment in Israel is strongly supportive of the campaign against Hezbollah, with celebrations following the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader.
- ⚠️ A potential Israeli ground invasion into Lebanon comes with risks, as past experiences have led to heavy casualties and difficulties withdrawing.
- 🏥 Lebanon is facing a humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands displaced and hospitals under severe pressure amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes.
Q & A
What is the potential consequence of the assassination discussed in the transcript?
-The assassination could bring the Middle East closer to a much wider and more damaging regional war, though it's not inevitable.
How has Hezbollah been impacted by recent events?
-Hezbollah's command structure has been decapitated, its communications sabotaged, and many of its weapons destroyed, but it still has a large missile arsenal and has vowed to continue fighting Israel.
What is the current status of Hezbollah’s missile capabilities?
-Hezbollah still has a large arsenal of missiles, many of which can reach Tel Aviv. However, there is internal pressure to use them soon before they are destroyed.
What risks could arise from an Israeli response to Hezbollah's missile attacks?
-If Hezbollah launches a mass missile attack, Israel's response could cause significant damage to Lebanon or even escalate to Iran.
How is Iran affected by this assassination and what is its potential course of action?
-Iran is deeply affected, as the assassination is a blow to both Hezbollah and Iran itself. Iran may ask its allied militias in the region to step up attacks on Israel and US bases but is likely to calibrate its response to avoid triggering a war it cannot win.
What is Israel's current military strategy in response to Hezbollah?
-Israel is continuing its military campaign against Hezbollah and is not considering a ceasefire. It aims to press on until the missile threat is removed, and an Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon seems likely.
What is the mood in Beirut following the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader?
-The mood in Beirut and across Lebanon is tense and anxious, as people wait to see how Hezbollah will respond. Despite political divisions, Hezbollah remains a powerful political and social force in Lebanon.
How is Hezbollah regarded within Lebanon versus outside Lebanon?
-In Lebanon, Hezbollah is viewed as more than just a militia—it is a political party with parliamentary representation and a large social organization. However, it is classified as a terrorist organization by the US, UK, and other Western countries.
How is the Israeli public reacting to the potential for a ground invasion of Lebanon?
-The Israeli public seems more united in support of the war against Hezbollah compared to the war in Gaza. However, there are risks, as previous ground invasions in 2006 led to heavy casualties for Israel.
What role does the US political landscape play in Israel's decision-making during this conflict?
-The US political backdrop, including the upcoming election, could influence Israel’s actions. While President Biden has been supportive of Israel, there is an acknowledgment in Israel that Prime Minister Netanyahu might prefer Donald Trump as the next US president.
Outlines
⚠️ Rising Tensions in the Middle East Post-Assassination
This paragraph discusses the potential regional consequences following the assassination of a key figure. It explores how the event brings the Middle East closer to a broader regional war, while highlighting Hezbollah's decapitated leadership, disrupted communication, and remaining missile arsenal. Iran, a close ally of Hezbollah, is in mourning and preparing for potential retaliation. Israel is determined to continue its military campaign, particularly against Hezbollah's missile threat, with the possibility of ground troops entering Lebanon. The focus is on how each player—Hezbollah, Iran, and Israel—might react to avoid or escalate the conflict.
😟 Lebanon’s Anxious Wait and Hezbollah's Power Struggle
Here, the reporter describes the mood in Lebanon, where anxiety looms over Hezbollah's next move. Despite being labeled a terrorist group by the West, Hezbollah holds significant political and social power in Lebanon. Its leadership has been decimated by Israeli airstrikes, yet it remains a formidable force with thousands of rockets and experienced fighters. The population fears that Israel’s campaign could extend into a ground invasion of southern Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, which could lead to an extended conflict.
🇮🇱 Israeli Public Sentiment on the War Against Hezbollah
This paragraph outlines the general unity among Israelis regarding their support for the military campaign against Hezbollah, contrasting with more divided opinions on the Gaza conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu enjoys considerable public backing for continuing the pressure on Hezbollah, especially after the killing of its leader. However, a potential ground invasion poses risks, as seen in the 2006 war, but analysts suggest it may be necessary to fully dismantle Hezbollah’s power.
💥 Hezbollah’s Defiance Amid Weakening Strength
Despite suffering heavy losses from Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah remains defiant. Its leadership, communication network, and infrastructure have been severely damaged, but it still possesses significant military capabilities. The situation has displaced hundreds of thousands of Lebanese citizens, with at least a thousand people killed. The Lebanese Prime Minister warned of an increasingly dangerous situation as resources are stretched thin. The possibility of an Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon looms, further complicating the already dire situation.
🇺🇸 US Influence and Israeli Actions Amid Political Change
This paragraph delves into how the shifting political landscape in the US might influence Israel’s actions. As the US election nears, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu likely favors Donald Trump’s potential return to power, given Trump’s strong support for Israel. However, current US President Biden has consistently pressured Israel to negotiate ceasefires, particularly concerning Gaza and Hezbollah, but with little effect. Israel continues to prioritize its military goals over international calls for restraint, seeing it as necessary to protect its citizens.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Hezbollah
💡Hassan Nasrallah
💡Iran
💡Israel
💡Regional War
💡Missiles
💡Ground Invasion
💡Political Support
💡U.S. Election
💡Displacement
Highlights
The assassination has brought the Middle East closer to a wider and more damaging regional war.
Hezbollah’s command structure has been decapitated, its communications sabotaged, and many of its weapons destroyed.
Despite being weakened, Hezbollah still possesses a large missile arsenal capable of reaching Tel Aviv.
Iran, facing a significant blow from the assassination, may consider retaliatory actions but is likely to avoid triggering a full-scale war.
Israel is determined to press on with its military campaign against Hezbollah to remove the missile threat.
There is a high probability that Israeli ground troops will enter Lebanon to target Hezbollah's remaining missiles.
Lebanon is anxious, awaiting Hezbollah’s response to the assassination, with the country under significant stress from recent Israeli airstrikes.
Hezbollah, though considered a terrorist organization by the West, holds political and social influence within Lebanon.
Israelis appear united in supporting the campaign against Hezbollah, more so than for the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Israel feels that it currently has the upper hand against Hezbollah and is likely to continue applying pressure.
While Hezbollah has been significantly weakened by Israeli airstrikes, it remains a formidable force with experienced fighters and rocket capabilities.
Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have been displaced due to the Israeli attacks, and the humanitarian situation is worsening.
The Lebanese Prime Minister warned of a dangerous situation for Lebanon, with hospitals and shelters under pressure from the growing crisis.
The upcoming U.S. election may affect Israeli calculations, as Prime Minister Netanyahu would prefer support from a Trump presidency.
Despite pressure from the U.S. for a ceasefire, Israel continues its military campaign to protect its citizens, showing little sign of halting.
Transcripts
well a big question is how countries in
the Middle East Now respond to nesta's
death our security correspondent Frank
Gardner looks at what might happen
next this assassination has taken the
Middle East One Step Closer potentially
to a much wider and even more damaging
Regional War now it's not inevitable but
what happens next depends on several
factors firstly what will Hezbollah do
next its command structure has been
decapitated its Communications sabotaged
many of its weapons destroyed but it's
vowed to carry on fighting Israel and
its members obeying for Revenge it still
has a large arsenal of missiles many of
which can reach Tel Aviv there will be
pressure within its ranks to use these
soon before they get destroyed but if
they do in a Mass Attack then Israel's
response could wreak havoc on Lebanon or
even on Iran so what will Iran do this
assassination is as much of a blow to
Iran as it is to Hezbollah it's already
announced 5 days of mour and rallies
across the country have taken place it's
already taken precautions hiding away
its leader Ayatollah Kay in case he too
is assassinated hardliners will also be
pushing for a response to this latest
humiliation by Israel Iran has a whole
galaxy of Allied militias around the
Middle East as well as has Bel they've
got the houthis in Yemen and armed
groups in Syria and Iraq Iran could ask
these to step up their attacks on both
Israel and US bases in the region but
whatever response Iran chooses it will
likely calibrate it to be just short of
triggering a war it cannot win and what
will Israel do next well the one thing
it's not doing is pausing for a
ceasefire it reckons it's got Hezbollah
on the back foot now so it'll want to
press on with its military campaign
until the threat of those missiles is
removed short of a Hezbollah surrender
and that's pretty unlikely it's almost
inevitable we could see this Israeli
ground troops going into Lebanon they've
been training for it this week their
priority will be to find and destroy
those remaining missiles many of which
are underground going in will be easy
but getting out could like Gaza take
months Frank Gardner well earlier we
were joined by our Middle East
correspondent Hugo Bacha in Beirut and
our correspondent John donison in
Jerusalem and I started by asking Hugo
about the mood on the ground in bayut
and what to expect in the coming
days yeah GA I think there is a a tense
anxious wait here in Beirut and also
across Lebanon I think people want to
see how Hezbollah is going to respond uh
you know no matter your political
affiliations here Hezbollah and Hass
asra are extremely powerful nazala for
30 years was the leader of a of a group
that is often described as a state
within the state here in Lebanon uh
obviously Hezbollah is considered a
terrorist organization by the UK by the
US many others in the west but here in
Lebanon it is much more than a militia
it is a political party has
representation in Parliament it is a
huge social organization as well with
significant support in Lebanon so it is
extremely influential extremely powerful
there was shock here yesterday when uh
the news was confirmed that Hassan
nazala had been killed by the Israeli
military and that huge Israeli air
strike that happened here on Friday so I
think people are waiting to see what
Hezbollah is going to do obviously you
know the leadership of Hezbollah has
been decimated uh Hezbollah has been
extremely you know weakened by almost
two weeks of intense Israeli air strike
so we still don't know how this response
is going to be we still don't know the
ability that Hezbollah has to organize a
response and carrying out carry out a
significant response but obviously
despite those attacks Hezbollah
continues to be a formidable force it
still has thousands of rockets including
you know missiles that can strike deep
inside Israel it has thousands of
Fighters who've been to Syria so you
know experienced Fighters and and the
concern here in Lebanon is that we're
seeing just the beginning of a wider
Israel campaign against Hezbollah an
offensive that uh seems likely to
include a ground incursion into Southern
Lebanon to destroy the infrastructure
that has been built by Hezbollah in the
South and push Fighters away from the
border and thank you for that John
donison in Jerusalem John can you give
us a sense of what the The Wider public
and political sentiment is on a possible
Grand Invasion obviously there's there's
different political views in Israel as
there is in any country but just give us
a sense at the moment of where you think
the public mood
is well I think Israelis are much more
united in their support for the war
against Hezbollah than they are say for
the war in Gaza where many Israelis feel
the government should be uh prioritizing
a ceasefire and hostage release deal I
think uh most Israelis uh welcome the
campaign against Hezbollah there was
celebration here in Israel Over the
death of Hassan nasala I saw some
footage uh yesterday from a beach in
elat in the south of Israel where the
Lifeguard announced the death of Hassan
Nala and a huge cheer went up on the
beach so I do think prime minister
Netanyahu has considerable support for
uh this campaign and there is absolutely
no indication that it is about to stop I
think Israel feels that it has the boot
on the throat of Hezbollah and it is
going to continue to apply the pressure
now as for a potential ground Invasion
well that comes with risks you'll
remember back in 2006 the last time
Hezbollah and Israel had a fullscale war
Israel went in with ground troops it was
eventually pushed back and a large
number of Israeli soldiers were killed
so there are risks but I think many
analysts believe that you cannot
dismantle hezb entirely without going in
with troops on the ground and Hugo in
terms of hezbollah's fighting strength
we've heard in the past about how
formidable it is and yet its leader is
has been taken out many of the top
commanders have been taken out the
communication systems have been um
obviously attacked in the last two weeks
what position is it in now to resist
against an Israeli ground Invasion if
that's what we are going to
see yeah so we've seen that has remained
defiant but it has been weakened it has
been you know damaged by two weeks of
intense Israeli attacks it's
Communications network has been
disrupted uh its its leadership has been
decimated uh its infrastructure has
taken a hit uh after extensive air
strikes here in Beirut targeting uh the
here you know Hezbollah bace here in
southern Beirut also uh in southern
Lebanon and in the Bear Valley which are
two strongholds here in Lebanon so we
still don't know you know how Hezbollah
and the capacity that Hezbollah has to
coordinate uh a response against these
Israeli attacks but I've got to say that
you know there's also the impact on on
the population here in Lebanon because
we've seen that uh hundreds of thousands
of people have been displaced because of
these Israeli attacks at least a
thousand people have been killed uh and
authorities are warning that you know
hospitals shelters uh that have been you
know housing those displaced residents
are under pressure and yesterday the
Prime Minister naib mikati warned that
Lebanon was facing a very dangerous
situation and John donison obviously
this comes all um against the backdrop
of a of a changing American political um
backdrop you know with with the with the
US election during about five weeks time
Joe Biden has been a staunch supporter
of uh the Israeli leadership Mr
Netanyahu this is all taking place
though as we look to November we don't
know what level of support will come for
Israel and what it does does that affect
at all do you think the calculation of
how the the government is acting and its
own
timeline I think it probably does I
think there is an acceptance here in
Israel that uh prime minister Netanyahu
would prefer it if the next president of
the United United States was Donald
Trump again because he thinks he has uh
better support for Israel and I but I
don't think we're going to see any uh
major shift in policy uh from the
Americans in the runup to the election
if we ended up with a carela Harris
presidency uh perhaps uh there could be
a shift in Direction but the truth of
the matter is that you know America led
by President Biden has been putting huge
pressure on Israel to try get a
ceasefire deal not only uh with
Hezbollah in Lebanon but for months now
uh in Gaza and all that pressure has led
to nothing and I think the truth is
Israel is doing what it thinks is
necessary to protect its citizens and no
one within the International Community
even the Americans Israel's staunchest
Ally can do anything to stop them
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