๐จ ืื ืืืคืื ืืื - ืืืจืืืื ืจืืืืช - ืืื ื ืงืจืืก ืืื ืืขืืจ?
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the potential market impact of an upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. The speaker, Mika from America, presents various scenarios, emphasizing the uncertainty of the market's reaction. They explore historical data, including past interest rate cuts and their effects on the S&P 500, to provide context. The conversation also touches on the current economic indicators, such as unemployment rates, and speculates on whether a recession is imminent. The script concludes with a focus on the significance of the September market, often considered a bellwether for the rest of the year, and the importance of being prepared for any market movement.
Takeaways
- ๐ฒ The speaker expresses uncertainty about the market's reaction to potential interest rate cuts this week.
- ๐ The script discusses historical data showing that interest rate cuts do not always correlate with market downturns; sometimes markets rise despite rate cuts.
- ๐ก The speaker suggests looking at past interest rates, market reactions, and economic indicators to predict future trends.
- ๐ฃ๏ธ Nick Timiraos, referred to as the 'Oracle of the Fed,' is mentioned for his influence on market expectations regarding interest rate decisions.
- ๐ค The script highlights the importance of considering whether the economy is in a recession or not, as this context greatly affects the market's response to interest rate changes.
- ๐ Historical comparisons are made between periods of interest rate cuts and market performance, with a focus on the S&P 500 index.
- ๐ The speaker points out that markets have historically risen after interest rate cuts, but emphasizes that past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
- ๐ The script discusses the potential impact of September on the market, noting that it's typically a volatile month and that the market's performance is not necessarily tied to interest rate decisions.
- ๐ The speaker mentions the role of technology and real-time information in allowing investors to react more quickly to market changes, including interest rate decisions.
- โณ The script concludes with a reminder that while predictions are made, the actual market reaction to interest rate cuts and other economic events can be unpredictable.
Q & A
What is the main concern regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision discussed in the script?
-The main concern is the uncertainty of how much the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates and the potential impact this decision will have on the market.
What does the speaker suggest we can do despite not knowing the future impact of interest rate cuts?
-The speaker suggests that we can look at data, history, and ask ourselves where we stand to compare the right things. We can also listen to experts like Nick Timiraos for insights.
What historical data does the speaker refer to when discussing past interest rate cuts?
-The speaker refers to historical interest rates of the Federal Reserve dating back to 1960, including periods before and after World War I and World War II, to analyze the effects of interest rate cuts.
What is the significance of the speaker mentioning the 'fear of missing out' (FOMO) in the context of the stock market?
-The speaker mentions FOMO to illustrate the psychological impact on investors who might rush to buy stocks in anticipation of interest rate cuts, potentially leading to short-term market fluctuations.
Why does the speaker compare the current situation to the year 2007 in terms of economic indicators?
-The speaker compares the current situation to 2007 because they are looking at similar economic indicators, such as unemployment rates and inflation, to predict potential market reactions to interest rate decisions.
What is the 'cme fed watch tool' mentioned in the script, and how does it relate to the discussion?
-The 'cme fed watch tool' is a resource that investors use to gauge expectations about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. It is mentioned to highlight how market participants form expectations based on available data.
Why does the speaker emphasize the importance of not confusing the timing of interest rate cuts with the historical performance of the stock market in September?
-The speaker emphasizes this because historical data shows that September can be a volatile month for the stock market regardless of interest rate decisions, and investors should not assume a direct correlation between the two.
What does the speaker suggest about the potential market reaction if the Federal Reserve were to cut interest rates by 50 basis points instead of 25?
-The speaker suggests that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it might be seen as a sign of concern, leading to a sell-off in the market, whereas a 25 basis point cut might be better received.
How does the speaker use historical unemployment rates to discuss the current economic situation?
-The speaker uses historical unemployment rates to argue that the current rate is not indicative of a recession, and thus, the Federal Reserve might not need to lower interest rates aggressively to combat unemployment.
What is the significance of the speaker mentioning the 'great financial crisis' of 2008 in the context of interest rate decisions?
-The speaker mentions the 'great financial crisis' of 2008 to highlight how extreme economic situations can lead to significant interest rate cuts and to compare the severity of the current situation to past crises.
Outlines
๐ Speculation on Interest Rate Cuts and Market Impact
The speaker begins by discussing the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, emphasizing that the market's reaction is unpredictable. They mention that while some fear a market crash, historical data shows mixed outcomes following rate cuts. The speaker also references Nik Timos, a noted Fed watcher, who suggests a possible 50 basis point rate cut, contrasting with market expectations of a 25 basis point reduction. The discussion highlights the importance of understanding historical trends and current economic data to make informed predictions about the market's direction.
๐ Historical Analysis of Interest Rates and Market Performance
This paragraph delves into a historical analysis of the Federal Reserve's interest rates since 1960, noting significant fluctuations and their correlation with economic events like world wars. The speaker points out that interest rates have been used as a tool to manage inflation and financial stability. They compare past market reactions to interest rate changes, using the S&P 500 index as a reference, to illustrate how the market has sometimes risen and other times fallen following rate adjustments. The summary underscores the complexity of predicting market movements based on interest rate decisions.
๐ Economic Indicators and Their Influence on Monetary Policy
The speaker examines various economic indicators such as unemployment rates and inflation to assess the health of the economy. They discuss how these indicators influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates. The paragraph highlights the importance of considering current economic conditions, such as whether the economy is in a recession, before drawing parallels with historical periods. The speaker also addresses the potential impact of delayed interest rate cuts on unemployment and the broader economy, emphasizing the need for a nuanced approach to economic analysis.
๐ Global Economic Factors and Their Role in Market Trends
This section explores the interplay between global economic factors and market trends. The speaker discusses the potential for a market downturn in September, often considered a challenging month for stocks, and how this might be influenced by global economic conditions and policy decisions. They also touch upon the role of technology and instant information in shaping market reactions, suggesting that the speed and accessibility of financial news can amplify market volatility. The summary stresses the need for investors to stay informed and adapt to rapidly changing economic landscapes.
๐ The Impact of Interest Rate Cuts on Market Volatility
The speaker speculates on the market's potential reaction to different magnitudes of interest rate cuts, questioning whether a larger cut would lead to increased market stability or volatility. They also consider the psychological impact of rate cuts on investor behavior, suggesting that market participants might overreact to significant policy changes. The paragraph includes a discussion on the market's performance during election years and the potential for increased uncertainty during such periods. The summary highlights the complex relationship between monetary policy, investor sentiment, and market dynamics.
๐ The Role of Technology in Shaping Financial Markets
In this paragraph, the speaker reflects on how technological advancements have transformed the way financial markets operate. They discuss the role of real-time data, trading platforms, and financial news in enabling investors to make quicker and more informed decisions. The speaker also addresses the potential for increased market volatility due to the speed at which information is disseminated and the ease with which investors can execute trades. The summary emphasizes the importance of staying adaptable and informed in an era where technology plays a pivotal role in shaping market trends.
Mindmap
Keywords
๐กInterest Rate
๐กFederal Reserve
๐กMarket Crash
๐กInflation
๐กRecession
๐กS&P 500
๐กUnemployment Rate
๐กBitcoin
๐กStock Market
๐กEconomic Indicators
๐กInvestment Strategy
Highlights
Discussion on the potential for an unexpected event this week leading to a Fed rate cut.
Uncertainty about the extent of the rate cut and its market impact.
Presentation of graphs showing the market's reaction to past rate cuts and the varied outcomes.
Emphasis on the importance of looking at data and history to predict future market movements.
Mention of listening to the market's signals and observing the opinions of financial experts like Nick Timiraos.
Analysis of the Fed's historical use of interest rates as a tool to manage inflation and economic issues.
Comparison of the current economic situation with historical data to understand the potential effects of a rate cut.
Discussion on the potential for a market crash and the implications of a rate cut on investor behavior.
Highlighting the difference between the market's reaction to rate cuts during periods of economic growth versus recession.
Statistical analysis of the market's performance after rate cuts, including short-term and long-term trends.
Insight into the Fed's decision-making process and the factors influencing their choice between a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut.
Discussion on the relationship between unemployment rates and the timing of rate cuts.
Predictions and speculations about the market's reaction to a potential rate cut in September.
Historical context provided on past September market performances and the potential for a downturn.
Analysis of the potential impact of the upcoming elections on the market and the Fed's decisions.
Recommendations for investors on how to prepare for the market's reaction to the Fed's rate decision.
Final thoughts on the importance of not panicking and staying informed during times of market uncertainty.
Transcripts
ืืืช ืื ืืงืจื ืืฉืื ืืจืื ืืฉืืืข ืื ืืงืจื ืืคื
ืขืืื ืืืืจืื ืจืืืืช ืจืง ืคื ืื ืื ื ืคื ืืชืืืื
ืืืขืื ืื ืื ื ืื ืืืืขืื ืืื ืืื ืืืจืื
ืืื ืื ื ืื ืืืืขืื ืืื ืื ืืฉืคืืข ืขื ืืฉืืง
ืื ื ืืืื ืืกืคืจ ืื ืืืืจืืืช ืืื ืืืจ ืืจืคืื
ืฉืืชื ืฉืืืชื ืื ืฉื ืืคืืื ืืืืื ืืืื ืืคืืื
ืืื ืืงืืืง ืืืื ืฉืืืืจ ืืฉืืง ืขืืื ืืงืจืืก ืื ื
ืืืื ืืืจืืืช ืืื ืืจืคืื ืฉืืจืืื ืฉืืืจืืช
ืจืืืืช ืื ืืฉืคืืขื ืืืืคื ืืื ืขืื ืืื ืื ื
ืืขืืงืจ ืื ืืืืขืื ืื ืืงืจื ืืขืชืื ืืื ืื
ืื ืื ื ืื ืืืืืื ืืขืฉืืช ืื ืื ื ืื ืืืืืื
ืืืกืชืื ืขื ืื ืชืื ืื ืืืกืชืื ืขื ืืืืกืืืจืื
ืืืฉืืื ืืช ืขืฆืื ื ืืืคื ืื ืื ื ื ืืฆืืื ืืื
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ื ืืฆืืื ืืืืชืื
ืืื ืื ืกืืื ืืืช ืื ืื ืื ื ืื ื ืืฆืืื
ืืืืชืื ืืืื ืื ืกืืื ืืืจืช ืืื ืืื ืืฉ
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ื ืกืชืื ืขื ืืจืืืืช ืืขืืจ ื ืกืชืื ืขื ืื ืคืืืืช
ื ืกืชืื ืขื ืืืงืืืืช ืฉืื ืื ืืฉืคืืข ืืืื ื ืกืชืื
ืขื ืื ืืืืจืื ืืืืชืจ ืืื ืื ื ืงืฉืื ืื ืืง ืื
ื ืงืฉืื ื ืจืื ืืช ื ืืง ืื ืืจืืก ืืืืืฉ
ืืคื ืฉืขืื ืืืชืจ ืืืืืจ ืืช ืืืฉ ืืกืืฃ ืืฉืืืข
ืืืืจ ืืืื ืืืื ืืืจืืื ื50 ื ืงืืืืช ืืกืืก
ืืื ืจืง ื-25 ื ืงืืืืช ืืกืืก ืื ืื ืืืื 25 ืื
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ืืืืืื ืืืืจืื ืจืืืืช ืื ืืงืจื ืืืื ืจืืืขื
ืื ืืงืจื ืืฉืืืข ืืืื ื ืชืืื ื ืืื ืืื ื ืืจืืืข
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ืืืืจืืช ืืจืืืืช ืืื ืืืืฉ ืืขืคื ืืืื ืื ืืื
ืืืืื ืงืืืื
[ืืืืืงื]
ืืชืืืืื ืฉืืื ืืืืื ืืื ืืขื ืืื ืื ืื ื ืืืื
ืืืืจืืงื ืืื ื ืืืื ืืื ืืช ืื ืื ืฉืงืืจื
ืืืฆื ืืฉื ื ืฉื ืืขืืื ืืฉืคื ืฉืจืง ืื ืื ื ืืืื ืื
ืืืจืืื ืื ืื ืฉืืชื ืจืืืื ืืื ืืขืชื ืืืื
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ืคืื ื ืกื ืื ืืชื
ืฆืจืืืื ืืืชืจืช ืืืชืจ ืืืื ืืกืจืืื ืืื ืื 50
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ื ืืฆืืื ืืฆืื ื ืืืืืืื ืืชื ืืชื ืืืจ ืืืื ืื
ืืืืืจืื ืืช ื ืืชืจ ืืื ืฉื ืงืจื cme fed watch
tool ืฉืื ืืขืฆื ืืืืืื ืืื ืกืื ืืืืื ืืื
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ืืืฆื ืืืืฉืงืืขืื ืืืืืืืื ืื ืืืืืืืื ืืขื
ืืืื ืืืจืืช ืจืืืืช ืื ืื ืืืืืืช ืืืืขืื ืื
ืืืืืืืื ืืืื ืืคื ืืืจืื ืจืืืืช ืื ืื ืงืจื
ื-24 ืฉืขืืช ืืืืจืื ืืช 36 ืืฉืืชื ืจืืืื ืืช
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ืืืคืืืืช ืืืจืืช ืจืืืืช ืืื ืืื ืืืืงื ืฉืืจืืช
ืืื ืืืช ืืฉืงืืขืื ืืืืืื ืืฆืคืืช ืืืืจืืช ืจืืืืช
ืืืฉืงืืขืื ืจืืื ืืืฉืืื ืฉืื ืืื ืืืืจืืช
ืจืืืืช ืืื ื ืืืคืืืื ืืชืืจื ืืืืจ ืืืืกืืืจืื
ืืจืื ืฉืื ืื ืชืืื ื ืืื ืืื 1970 ืืืชืจ ื50
ืืืืจืืืช ืืจืืืืช ืืืืื ืืืจืืืืช ืฉื 20% ื
snp 500 ืื ื ืงืืืืชื ืืช ืืืคืืื ืขื ืืืชืืื
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ืืืืืืจ ืื ืืกืืฃ ืืื ืื ืืืื ืฉืื ืขื ืืื ืื
ืืจืืื ื'ืจืื ืคืืื ืืืชืื ืฉื ื ืืง ืื ืืจืืก
ื ืืง ืื ืืจืืก ืืืืืจ ืขื ืืื ืจืืื ื ืืืืืฉ
ืืคื ื ืืง ืื ืืจืืก ืืขืื ืชืืืื ืืฉืืื ืืื
ืฉืืคื ืืืจืื ืจืง ื-25 ื ืงืืืืช ืืกืืก ืืื ื-50
ืืื ืฉืืื ืื ืืขืฉื ืคืจืื ื ืจื ืื ื ืืืืจืื
ืืืจืื ืืฉืจ ืืืง ืืืืืื ืืืงื ืืื ืชืืขื ืืกืืื
ืืช ืื ืืื ืชืืข ืืกืคืื ืืช ืื ืื ืืงืจื ืืืื
ืืืื ืชืืืง ืืช ืืฉืืง ืืจื ืืื ืื ืื ืฉืืืืื
ืืืื ืฉืืฉื ืืขืืืืช ืื ืื ืื ืฉืฉืื ื ืคื ืืช
ืืืฉืงื ืืจื ืืื ืื ืื ืฉืืขืื ืืช
ืืืืืงืืื ืืฉืขื ืืื ืืื ืืชื ืืืง ืืืงืืืื
ืืชื ืืืจ ืืืืขืื ืืืชืืื ืฉืืืื ืืืชืืื ืืฉืื
ืื
ืืืืืงืืื ืืืื ืกืืคืฉ ืืขื ืืื ืื ืืฉืืฉืื ืืขืฆื
ืืชืืื ืฉืื ืืืชื ืืืชืจ ืืืืื ืื ืืืฆืืจืฃ
ืืงืืืื ืืื ืง ืืืคืืข ืคื ืืชืืืืจ ืืื ืืืฆืืจืฃ
ืืืืขืช ืคืฉืื ืืคื ื ืืืื ืื ืืจืื ืขืืจืืื ืื
ืื ืืคืฉืจื ืืื ืฉืื ืืขืื ืื ืฉืื
ืืื ืื ืืืื ืืืจืืื 25 ืื
50 ืื ื ื ืืงื ืืจืื
ื ืืืจืืก ืื ืืื ืืืืจ ืืช ืืืืจ ืืื ืืืืช
ืืืืจืื ืื ืืืจืื ื ืืืืจืื ืืืื
ืืจืืข ืืื ืคืืืช ืืฉืืื ืืื ืืื ืจืืืื ืืืช ืืื
ืืคื ื ืืื ืืืชืจ ืืืืืื 50 ื ืงืืืืช
ืืกืืก ืฉืืื ืืืื ื ืืื ืืืื ืืงืืืช ืืกืจืืื ืื
ืืืืงืืื ืขื 60 ืื ืกืืื ืฉืืืืื ืืขืจืื ืฉืื
ืื ืฉืืืื ืืงืจืืช ืื ืืฉืืง ืขืืื ืื 5025 ืืื
ืื ืืฉืื ืืืื ืืชื ืืื
ืฉืืืืื ืืืื ื ืื ืืืืจื ืืืืกืืืจืื
ืื ืฉืืชื ืจืืืื ืคื ืื ืืจืืืืช ืฉื ืืคื ืืฉื ืช
1960 ืืคืืื ืืคื ื 50 ืืืฉืื ืืื ืื ืคื ืืช
ืืืืืช ืืขืืื ืืจืืฉืื ื ืืืืื ืื ืคื ืืช ืืคื ื
ืืืืืืช ืืขืืื ืืฉื ืืื ืืฉ ืื ืจืง
ื-1950 ืืืฉืื ืฉืืื ืื ืจืืืืช ืืคื ืคืขื
ืืืืืชื ืขื 20% ืืื ืืื ืืืืื ืืืจืืื 11%
99% 6% 65% 5% ืืฉืืื ืื ืื ืื ื ืขืืฉืื
ืืจืืืืช ืืืืื ืืื ืฉืืื ืืืืืชื ื-2007
ืืื ืื ืื ื ืฆืคืืืื ืืืชืืื ืืกืข ืฉื ืืืจืืช
ืจืืืืช ืืืจืืช ืจืืืืช ืืืจืืช ืจืืืืช ืืืจืืช
ืจืืืืช ืืืจืืช ืจืืืืช ืืื ืฉืืชื ืจืืืื ืื
ืืจืืืืช ืฉื
ืืคื ืื ืืื ื ืฉืืจืืืืช ืืคื ืืฉืชืืฉ ืืคื ืืื ืง
ืืืจืืื ืืืืจืืงืื ืืฉืชืืฉ ืืจืืืืช ืืืื ืืืขืืืช
ืืืืืจืื ืืจืื ืคืขืืื ืืื ืืืคื ืืืื ืคืืฆืื ืื
ืืืขืืืช ืืฉืงืืืช
ืืืจืืช ืื ืืืื ื ืืื ืื ืื ืขืฉื ืืขืืจ
ืืืฉืืื ืื ืืื ืื ื ืขื ืืช ื snp ื ืืื ืืื
ืื ืืฉืคืืข
ืืขืืจ ืืื ื ืขืื ืืช ื snp ื ืืืข ืืืื ืขืื ืจืืข
ืืืงืฉื ืฉืืื
ืื ืืชื ืืืืจืื ืืจืื ืืืื ืืจืคืื ืฉืืชืืจืื
ื ืคืืืืช ืฉื ื snp ืื ืคืืืืช ืฉืืชื ืืจืื ืคืขืืื
ืจืืืื ืื ืืืืื ืงืฆืจ ืืื ืื ืชืืื
โsnp ืืื ืฉืืชื ืจืืืื ืืฉื ืช 1956 ืืืืื ืขืืื
ืืืืื ืื ืื ืฉืืื ืืืฉืงืข ืืชื ืืืืจืื ืืช
ืืืืกืืืจืื ืืื ืืืื ื ืขืฉื ืจืืข ืืื
ืืื ืืฉื ืช
1989 ื-1989 ืืคื ืืื ืืจืืืืช 9.85 ืืื ืฉืขืื
ืื ืจืืื ืื ืื ื ืืจืืืืช ืฉื ืืื 525 ื5 ื 9.8
ืืจื ืื ืืืจื ื
2.9 ืื ืฉืืชื ืจืืืื ืคื ืืืื ืื ื ืื ืกื ืกื
ืืขืืืช ืืช ืื ืงืฆืช ืืืชืจ ืืืื ืจืง ืฉื ืืื ืื
ืืื ืื ืคืืืืช ืืืืก ืืืืชื ืฉืื ืฉืืื ื ืขืื ืืช
ืื ืืื ืจืง ืฉื ืืื ื ืกืืจ ืคื ืืช ืืืจืคืื ืฉืืื
ื ืื
ืืจืืืช
ืืืงืื ืืืืจืฃ ืื ืืชืืืฉืจ ืืื ืืื ืืฉื ื ืืืช
ืืืืจืช ืืืื ืื ืื ืืืื ืืื ื ืืชื ืจืืืื ืื ื
ืืืื ืืืื ืืช
ืฉื ืืื 985 ืืืจื ื29 ืืชื ืจืืืื ืฉืืฉืืง ืืจืืื
ืื ืืืื ืืืื ืืืืืช ืฉืืื ืคื ืชืืงืื ืื ืื
ืืืช ืืืืจืช ืืืื ืืืืืช ืืฉื ืช
1990 ืขื ืกืืฃ 90 ืืฉืืง ืืจื ื-20 ื ืืืจืืช
ืจืืืืช ืื ืืคืืืช ืชืืืืช ืืืจืืช ืจืืืืช ืืืจื
ืื ืืฉืืง ืืืืจ ืืืจื ืืืชื ืจืืืื all time
high ืื ืืืจื ืืืงืื ืืื ืืจืืืช ืืืื ืจืืืช
ืืืื ืจืืืช ืืืื ืืื ืฉื ืช 2000 ืืชืคืืฆืฆืืช
ืืืืื ืืฉืืง ืืืจื ืฉืืื ื
ืื ืืฉื ื
ืืืขืฆื ืืคื ืืืจืื ืจืืื ืกืืืื ืืฉืื ื ืืืชื
ืืืืืื ืืจืืืช ืืื ื ืืื ืฉืืืืืืื ืืื
ืืงืืงืืื ืื ืืืืชื ืื ืื ื ืืืงืฉื ื ื ืื ืื
ืื ืื ืืืืชื ืืงืืงื ืืื ืชืืื ืืืชื ืืงืื
ืืกืืจ ื ืจืื ืืืื ืืื ืื ืื
ืืืงืื ืืชืืืืื ืืืืจืื ืืฉืืง
ืงืืจืก ืืืืจื ื
47% ืื ืงืจื ื ืืื ืืืจ 2000
ืื ืืืจ 2001 ืืชืืืืื ืืืืจืื ืจืืืืช ืืฉืืง
ืงืืจืก ื 47% ืืชื ืืืืืื ืืจืืืช ืืืชื
ืคื ืืืจื ืฉืืื ืขืืฉื ืจืื ืฉื 5% ืืขืงืืืช
ืืืืืขื ืขื ืืืจืืช ืืจืืืืช ืืืช ืืืืจืช ืจืื 5%
ืงืจืืกื ืฉื
47% ืืืฆื ืืืืจ ืขื ืขืฆืื
ื-27 ืกืคืืืืจ 2007 ืืคื ืืชืืื ืืืืจืื ืจืืืืช
ืืฉืืง ืขืืื ื-5 ื ืืงืืจืก
ื-56
ื ืื ืื ืขื ืกืืื ืืืืจืื ืืชืืืฉืจืืช ืืื ืื ื
ืฉืื ืืืืชื
ื ืงืืื ืจืขื ืื 5%
ืงืจืืกื 40
50% ืืื ืืฉืืื ืืื ืื ืื ื ืืืืชื
ื ืงืืื ืืืื ื ืกืชืื ืื ืฉืืชื ืจืืืื ืคื ืื ืืจืฃ
ื unemployment
ืืืืื ืื ืื ื ื ืืฆืืื ืคื 4 ืฉืืืฉ ืืืืจื
ืืืืกืืืจืื ืื ืชืืชืื ืคื ืงื ืืื ืืคืฉืจ ืืืชืื
ืื ืื ืงื ืื ืืชื ืืืืืื ืขื ืืขืื ืื ืกืืช
ืืืืืื ืืชื ืืืืืื ืืจืืืช ืฉ ื-1950 ืืืืื
ืื ืื
ื ืืืื ืื
ื ืจืฉืื ืืืช ืืืืจืช
ืฉืืืื ืืืื ืืืืืช ืฉืืืืืื ืืืื ืจืฉืืื ื
4.2 ืืื ืื ืงืฉื ืืื ืืืจืืช ืจืืืืช ืืืื ืื
ืืชืงืืคื ืฉืื ืืื ืื ืืฉืืจืืช ืืื ืื ื ืื
ืืชืงืืคืช ืืฉืืจ ืืืืืื
ืืืืจืืงืืืช ืื ืืืืจื ืืคืืืข ืืืืืื ืืืคื
ืืืจืื ืืืืืจืช ืืื ืขืฉืืืื ืืืจืื ืืืืืื
ืืขืืืช ืืืกืืื ืืืคืืื ืฉืืืจืืช ืืืืืจ ืืื
ืืขืกืงืื ืืืจ ืืื ืืื ืงืฉื ืืืื ืฆืจืืืื ืืคืชืจ
ืืืช ืืืืจืช ืืืืื ืื ืืืืจืช ืื ื ืืฉ
ืืขืื ืื ืืืื ื ืฉืืื ืืื ืืขืืืืืช ืืคื ืืืชื
ืืืื ืืืชืื ืื ืืฉ ืืืชืื ืืืคืืืช ืืฉืืื ืืชืื
ืืืืืื ืจืฆื ืืื ืื ื ืขื ืื ืืืื ืืงืืืื
ืฉืืืข ืฉืขืืจ ืืื ื ืจืืข ืจืืฆื ืืื ืืืืจืชื ืขื ืื
ืคื ืื ืื ื ืจืืฆื ืจืืข ืืืืืืฉ ืฉืื ืืื ืืจืืข
ืฉืื ืคืจืืืจ ืฉืืฆืืืข ืขื ืื ืฉืืฉ ืืืชืื ืืืจืฆืืช
ืืืจืืช ืืฉ ืืขืชื ืืกืงืืืจ ืืชืขืกืืงื ืืขืชื ืื ืื
ืจืืื ื ืืืืื ืขืืชื ื4.3
ืืืืืจืื ืืชืืืงืจื ืืืื ืืื ืคืืฆืื ืื ืื ื ืืื
ืืื ืืื ืืจืืข ืฉืื ื ืชืื
ืืืคืืจื ืฉืืืืจ ืืกื ืืคืฉืื ืื ืืืื ืืฉ ืืชืื ืืฉ
ืื ืฉืื ืฉืืกืชืืืื ืขื ืืืฆื ืืืืืจืื ืื ืืฉืืฉ
ืืช ืืืฆื ืืื ืืขืื ืืื ืืืืฉืื ืืืื ืืืชืื
ืื ืืืื ืืืืืช ืืื ืืจืืข ืืื ืืชืื ืืื ื ืชืื
ืืฉืื ืืื ืื ืื ืื ื ืื ืืืืืื ืืืฉืืืช ืืืจืช
ืื ืื ืื ื ืื ืืื ืืชืื ืื ืื ื ืฆืจืืืื ืืืฉืืืช
ืื ืืชืงืืคืืช ืฉื ืืื ืืชืื ืื ืื ื ืื ืืืืืื
ืืืฉืืืช ืืช ืื ืืชืงืืคืืช ืฉื ืืชืื ืื ืื ืื
ืืืชื ืชืงืืคื
ืื ืืื ื ืฉืืื ืืฉ ืืคื ืืืชื ืืฉืืฉ ืืืชืื ืื
ืืคื ืืืชื ืืฉืืื ืืืชืื ืชืงืืคืืช ืฉืื ืืช
ืืืืืืื ืืืื 74 ืืคืจืื 80 ืืื ื 81 ืื ืืืจ
01 ืืกืคืืืืจ 07 ืืื ืืืชืื ืฉืืื ืื ืื ืืืจ 01
ืกืคืืืืจ 07 ื ืฉืืข ืืื ืืืืจ ื ืืื ืืชืจืกืงืืืืช
ืืืคื ืคื ืืืชื ืืฉืืื ืืืชืื ืื ืืืจ 71
ืืืงืืืืจ 84 87 89 95 ื-9
ืืคืขืืืื ืืืืจืื ืืช ืฉืืคื
ืืชื ืืืจืกื ื ืคืื ืืืืจื ื ืืื ื ืจืง ืืื ืื
ืจืืืื ืืืช ืื ืืคืขืืืื ืืืืจืื ืืช ืืืื ื
ืืืืชืื ืืขืืฉืื ืื ืื ื ืื ืืืืชืื
ืื ืงืื ืืืืื 74 ืืื ืืืชืื ืืคื ืืชื ืจืืืืช
ืื ื ื ืืืืชื ืืืืืืกื 74 ืืชื ืืืฉืืื ืฉืืืืจืื
ืฉืื ืืืขื ืขื ืื ืืืืจืื ืฉืื ืื ื ืืืืจืื
ืขืืฉืื ืชืืืจื ืืช ืื ืชืื ืืื ืื ื ืื ืืคืฉืจ
ืืขืฉืืช ืื
ืืขืฆื ืืฉืื ื ืืกืชืื ืขื ืื ืืชืงืืคืืช ืืืื ืื ื
ืืืื ืืืืื ืืื ืืืจ ืืื ืขืื ืฉื ืืื ืืคื ื
ืฉื ืคืชื ืคื ืืช
ืื ืชืื ืื
ืื ื ืื ื ืืืืฉืงืืขืื ืขืฆืื ืื ืืื ื ืืืฉืืช
ืืืืืข ืื ืืืขื ื ืืช ืื ืฉืื ืื ื ืืืืขืื ืืืื
ืื ืจืืื ื ืืช ืื ืฉืื ืื ื ืจืืืื ืืืื ืืืช
ืืืืจืช ืงืืืื ืืช ืืขืืืืืช ืืื ืฉืื ื ืคืืืืช
ืืขืืืืช ืืืื ืชืืื ื ืืกืืฃ ืืื ืื
ืจืืื ืื ืื ืื ืงืจื ืืฉื ืื ืืงืืืืืช ืืฉืืื
ืืืชืื ืืคื ื ืฉืืืข ืืืจื
ืืจืื ื ืืืืฉ ืืืจื ืขืืื ื ืงืฆืช ืืื ืงืจืกื ื
ืงืจืกื ื ืงืจืกื ื ืงืจืกื ื ืืืืืฆืข ื snp 500 ืื
ืืื ืืืืฆืข ืฉื ืื ืืฉื ืื ืืืื ืืจืฉ ืืืืจ ืืื
ืคืขืืื ืื ืืื ืืืืืฆืข ืืืื ืคืขืืื ืื ืื ืืื
ืืืืืฆืข ืืคืฉืจ ืืจืืืช ืฉืื r ืืื ืืืื ื ืืื
ืืืช ืืืืจืช ืฉืืื ืฉื ืื ืืืื ืืฉื ืื ืืืื
ืจืืื ื ืืช 01
ื7 ืืืื ื ืงืคืืฅ ืืื ืงืจื ืคื ืืชื ืืืื ืืื
ืืื ืืืชืื ืืคื ืื ืจืื ืืืค ืฉืื ืื ื ื ืืฆืืื
ืืจืืข ืืื ืื ืื ื ืืืืช ื ืืฆืืื ืคื ืืจืืข
ืืชืฉืืื ืืช ืขืฆืืื ืืื ืืฉ ืืืชืื ืืฉืืง ืืื
ืืฉ ืื ืชืงืืคืืช ืืืชืื ืืืคืืจ ืืื ืืกืืจ ืืื ืืฉ
5% ืขื 99% ืืืืืืื ืื ืืืื ืืื ืืฉ 4.4 ืขื
5.3 ืืืื ืืืืืช ืืืื ืืืืืช ืฉืื ืื ื ืฉื ืืื
ืืคื ื ืงืืืื ืืคืืจืื ืืืื ืืืืืช ืืื ืืืื
ืจืืข ืืื ืฉืื ื ืชืื ืฉ ืฆืืืข ืขื ืื ืืื ืืื
ืื ืื ื ื ืืืืจ ืืคื ืื ืฉืื ืืืงืื ืื ืืืชืืืืงื
ืืืืจืช ืืชืืืืงื ืืืืจืช ืฉืฉืืืข ืืืจื ืฉืืืข ืืืจื
ืืืจืืช ืืจืืืืช ืืจืืืืช 67% ืืืืงืจืื ืืื ืื
ืฉืืื ืื ืืืืฉ ืืืจื ืขืืืื ื
5.1 100% ืืืคืขืืื ืื ืืืืืฆืข ืฉืื ื ืืืช
ืืืืจืช 100% ืืืคืขืืื ืขืืื ื ืืืืืฆืข 5.1
ืฉืืืฉื ืืืืฉืื ืืืจื 100% ืืืคืขืืื ืขืืื ื
ืืืืืฆืข 99.7 ืืื ืื ืืืื ืืืืก ื snp
ืฉืืฉื ืืืืฉืื ืืืจื ืขืืื ื ื-14 ื ืืืืืฆืข
100% ืืืืงืจืื ืืื ืืืืฉืื
ืืืืืืื ืชืฉืขื ืืืืฉืื ืืืจื 16% 100%
ืืืืงืจืื ื-1 ื ืฉื ื ืืืจื 16.5% 100%
ืืืืงืจืื ืืืช
ืืืืจืช ืฉืืืืกืืืจืื
ืืจืื ืืืื ืชื ืืคื ืืื ืืื ืื ื ืื
ืืืืชืื ืื ืืืืกืืืจืื ืชืืืืจ ืขื ืขืฆืื
ืืืืฆืืขื ืืขืืจ ืืื ื ืืฆืืขืื ืขื ืืืฆืืข ืืขืชืื
ืืืืื 100% ืืืืงืจืื ืืฉืืง
ืขืื ืื ืืื ืืืฉืืฉ ืื 2001 ื-27 ืื ืืฉื ืื
ืฉืื ืื ื
ืืืืจืื ื ืืกืืช
ืงืจืืืื ืืื ืฉืืืืืื ืืื ืื ืืื ืืชืื
ืืื ืื ื ืื
ืืืืชืื ืืืืื ืืจืื ืืืื ืืื ืชืื ืื ืืืื
ืื ืื ื ื ืืืจ ืขืืืื ืืจืื ืืืชืจ ืืงืืืื
ืืืืกืืืื ืืคืืืก ืืืืื ื ืืืืื ืคื ืื ื ืืืื
ืืื ืืืืช ืืช ืืืืจืื ืฉืื ืืื ืฆืจืื ืืืืืจ
ืืืืขืช ืื ืื
ืขืืฉืื ืืื ืืื ื ืฆืื ืืกืคืืืืจ ืื ืืืืืจื ืืคื
ืื ืฉืืชื ืจืืืื ืคื ืืชื ืืืืจืื ืืขืฆืืื ืื
ืืฆืืืื ืืื ืกืืื ืื ืืืื ืืืืจ ืฉืื ืื ื
ืคื ืงืืื ืื ืื ืืื ืื ืฉืื ืฉืื ืื ื ืคื ืื
ืืืื ืืืืืช ืฉืื ืื ื ืคื ืืื ืื ื ืืืขื ืื
ืืืืข ืืื ืื ืื ืื ื ืคื ืื ืืื ืกืืื ื ืืื ืื
ืืื ืฉืื ืื ืืืืฉ ืกืคืืืืจ ืขืืืื ืืื ืืืืฉ ืื
ืืื ืฉืืื ืื ืขืืืื ืืืืจ ืืืืืช ืืจืืื
ืืืืืชื ืืืืืชื ืขืืืื ืขื ืืืฆืข ืืืืืฉ ืืฉืืืข
ืืื ืฉืื ืฆืคืื
ืืืจืืื ืื ื10 ืฉื ืื ืืืืจืื ืืช ืขื ืขืืฉืื
ืืืื ืชืืืืื ืืื ืขืืฉืื ืฉืืื ืื ืื ืชืืื ืืช
ืืืจืืื ืืขืื ืชืืช ืืืืช ืืืืืฉ ืกืคืืืืจ ืื ืื ื
ืื ืืืื ืืืื ืฉืืื ืชืืื ืืื
ืื ืืชื ืจืืื ืืืื ืืฉืืง ืงืจืก ืืขืงืืืช ืืื ืื
ืืฉืืง ืชืืงื ืืื ืฉืืื ืืืจื ืืื ืืชืงื ืืกืคืืืืจ
ืืจื ืืื ืขืื ืคืขื ืื ื ืืืืจ ืืืืกืงืืจื ืฉื
ืืงืืืื ืืชื ืืืืืื ืืจืืืช ืคื ืฉืื ืื ื ืืชืืื ื
ืืช ืกืคืืืืจ ืืจืื ืืืชืจ ื ืืื ืืืืืืฆืข ืืจืืื
ืืืช ืืืืจืช ืื ืืื ืืฉ ืื ื ืงื ืฉืืค ืืขืฉืืช
ืฉืื ืจืื ื ืกืืื ืืช ืืงืืฉืืค ืืื ืืืจ ืืืื ืฉืืฉื
ืงื ืฉืืค ืื ืืชืคืืก ืืืจื ืืช
ืืืืืฆืขืื ืืืงืื ืืื ื ืืืืจ ืืืจื ืืกืคืืืืจ
ืฆืคืื ืืืืืช ืชื ืืืชื ืืื ืงืฉืจ ืืฉืื ืืืจ
ืฉืืืืจืชื ืขืืฉืื ืื ืื ืื ืืืจืืืื
ืจืืืืช ืืื ืืืืชื ืื ื ืค ืกืคืืืืจ
ืืจืืขื ืืื ื ืืืืง ืืช ืื ืืืกืืืจืืช ืืืจืืขืช
ืืืืื ืืจืืฉืื ืื ืฉื ืกืคืืืืจ ื ืจืืื ืืื ืฉืื
ื ืจืืื ืืกืืืื ืฉื ืกืืื ืืืืืืื ืืช ืกืคืืืืจ
ืืื ืื ืืืื ืฉืืืฉ ืืชืื 10 ืืืช ืืืืจืช ืืฉ
ืื ื 30% ืกืืืื ืืกืืื ืืช ืกืคืืืืจ ืืจืืงืื ืืื
ืืฉืื ืฉืชืืขื ืืช ืื ืืื ืฉืื ืชืืืจื ืืื ืืืจืืช
ืืจืืืืช ืืืื ืกืคืืืืจ ืื ืื ืืงืจื ืืขืื ืฉื ืืื
ืชืจืื ืขืื ื ืชืื ืื ืืฉ ืกืืืื ืื ืกืืืจ ืฉืกืคืช
ืืกืชืืื
ืืืื ืืื ืื ืืฉืจ ืืืืจืืช ืืจืืืืช ืืืื
ืฉืืชืืื ื ืืืชืืชื ืืื ืฉืืชืืื ื ืืืชืืชื ืืคืฉืจ
ืืืืื ืฉืืชืืื ื ืืืชื ืืื ืฉืืชืืื ื ืืืื
ืืจืืืืช ืืืื ืืื ืืืื ืืื ืืคืฉืจื ืืื ืื
ืฆืจืื ืืืืจ ืืื ืืฉื ืืื ืืื ืื ืื ืืืืจ ืฉื ืจื
ื-40
ื ืืคืฉืจ ืืจืืืช ืืืื ื ืจื ืืืงืื ืืื ืื ื ืชืงืื
ืืื
ื ืจืื ืืฉื ืื ืฉื ืืืจืืืช ืจืืืืช
ืืื ื ืจืื ืืื ื ืจืื ืืืืฉ ืกืคืืืืจ ืฉืื ืื ืืื
ืืฉื ืื ืฉืืื ืกืืืื ืืฉื ืื ืฉืืื ืืชืืื ื ืืจืืขื
ืืืื ืืจืืขืื ืืกืคืืืืจ ืื ืืื ืจืง ืฉื ื ืืืช
ืืฉืืชืืืืื ืืืชื ืืจืืข ืืกืชืืืืช ืืืืืืช
ืืงืืฆืืจ ืกืคืืืืจ ืืืื ืืืืืช ืืจื ืืื ืื ืงืฉืจ
ืืืืื ืื ืงืืจื ืืฉืืจ ืืฉื ืื ืืขืื
ืืืชืื ืฉื ืชืงืืคืืช ืืืืื ืืืืื ืืชืืื ื ื
ืืื ืืฆื ืฉืกืคืช ืืืื ืืืืฉืืจ ืืืืื ืืคืืืช ืืื
ืฉื ืืืืืช ืืืืื ืืคืืืช ืืื ืฉืืกืืืืกืืืงื ืืจื
ืขื ืขืืฉืื ืืืช ืืืืจืช ืฆืจืื ืืืชืจืื ืื ืฆืจืื
ืืืชืืื ื ืืืฆื ืฉืื ืคื ืืชื ืจืืืื ืืช ื20
ืคืขืืื ืฉืกืคืช ืคืชื ืืื ืืจืืข ืืืฉืืื ืคืชื ืืื
ืืจืืข ืกืืืื ื ืืืืืื ืืช ืกืคืืืืจ ืืืช ืืืืจืช
ืชืชืืื ื ื ืืกืคืืืืจ ืืืื
ืืื ืืืื ืื ืืคืชืืื ืื ืจืง ืืืื ืืืื ื
ืืกืคืืืืจ ืฉืืืืชื ืื ื ืืขืจืืฅ ืืื ืื ืงืฉืจ
ืืืืจืืช ืจืืืืช ืืจืืช ืจืืืืช ืงืฉืืจื ืืื ืื
ืืืืืช ืืืืืช ืงืฉืืจื ืืืงืฉืจ ืืื ืืื
ืื ืืืืชื
ืืฆ'ื ืืฉืืืชื ืืืชื ืืืจืชื ืชืืืื ืืื ืคืขืืื
ืืืจืืื ืจืืืื ืืื ืืจืื ืื ื 1929 ื 1940
ื-150 -1970
ื-1970 ืืืจืืื ืืืื ืกืืค
ืคืฉ 1980 ืืื ืชืงืืคื ืฉื ืืืืงืจ ืืืืชื ืจืืืืช
ืืืืืชื ืืื ืคืืฆืื ืืืื ืืืื ืืืืื ืืื ืืื
ืืืื ืืขืืืช ืจืืืืช ืืืืจืกืืืืืช ืืื
ืืืืจืื 2001 ืืืืจื ื ืืื doc 2008 ืืื
great financial cris ืืงืืืื ื ืืช ืืงืื ืืื
ืืืจืชื ืชืืืื ืืฉ ืงืฉืจ ื unemployment ืืืืืื
ืืื ืืฉ ืงืฉืจ ืืื ืืื ืืื ืฉืจืืืชื ืืืชื ืืคื ื
ืื ืืืื ื ืืืืจ ืื ืืง
ืืืืืืก ื ืืง ืืืืืืก ืืจืืข ืืขืื ืืืื ืฉืืืื
ืืืื ืืืืืช ืฉืืืจืืื ื-50 ื ืงืืืืช ืืกืืก ืืื
ื-20 ื ืงืืืืช ืืกืืก ืืืช ืืืืจืช ืืืื ืืืื
ืืืืืช
ืื ืืืื ืืืื ืืืืืช ืฉืื ืฉื ืจืื ืคื ืื ืืจืืื
ืฉื 50 ื ืงืืืืช ืืกืืก ืืืื ืื ื ืืืืจ
ืืืื ืื ืืฉืืง ืืจืืข ืฆืจืื
ืืขืงื 25 ืืื 50 ืืฉืืง ืืจืืจ ืื ืฉืืืจืืื
ืจืืืืช ืขื ืื ืืื ืืืืื
ืืชืืืืจ ืฉืืื ืืื
25 ืื
50 ืืืื ืืฉืืืงื ืืช ืืืืจืื ืฉื ื50
ืืืื ืื ืืืจืืืื 50 ืืชืื ืขืืื ืฉื ืืฉืฉ ืื
ืืืืืจ ืืืชื ื ื 2007 -21 ืืฉืฉ ืืืจืืืื ืจืืืืช
ืืืืฅ ืืฉืืง ืืืื ืืืืืื ืชืืืจื ืชืืืจื ืชืืืจื
ืื ื ืื ืจืืฆื
ืืืชืขืกืง ืื ืืืจืืื 50 ืืืืืื ืื ืื ื ืืืจืืืื
50 ืคืฉืื ืื ืื ืื ื ืื ืจืืฆืื ืฉืฉืืง ืืชืขืกืืงื
ืืืืฉ
ืืื ืื ื ืื ืื ืกื ืืฉืืืง ืืช ืื ืืืฉื ืฉืื
ืฉืืืืง ืงืฉื ืงืฆืช ืืื ืื ืกื ืืฉืืืง ืืช ืื ืืืื
ืืฉืืง ืืงืื ืืช ืื ืื ืืืจืืื ื-25 ื ืงืืืืช
ืืกืืก ืืื ืืืื ื ืืืจ ืืช ื-50 ืืคืืืฉื ืืืื
ืืฉืืง ืืงืื ืืช ืื ืืจืื ืืืชืจ ืืื ืืืื ืื ื
ืื ืื ืื ืืืื ืื ื ืืชื ืืคื ืืืืจืื ื50
ื ืงืืืืช ืืกืืก ืืืืช ืื ืืคื ืจืืื ื ืชืื ืื ืืืื
ืืืืฅ ืืื ืืื ืืคื ืจืืื ื ืชืื ืื ืืืื ืืืืฅ
ืืื ืื ืืฉืืง ื
ืืืฅ ืื ืืื ืืฉืืง ืืืื ืื
ืืจืืืืช ื ืืืืจ ืืืจื
ืืคื ืื ืื ืื ื ืืฉื ื ืื ื ืืชื ืืืืช ืฉืืง ืืื
ื ืฆืืฆื ืขืืฉืื ืืช ืื ืืื ืืฉื ืช 2000 ืืืื
ืืฉื ืช
2007 ืฆืคื ืืืจืืืืช ืฉื ืืื
47 ื-56 ื ืื
ืื ืืื ืฉืืื
ื-2018 19
ืื ืฆืคื ืืืจืืื ืืืื ืฉื 5% ืื ืงืืืื ืื ืื
ืคืืืช
ืงืฉืืจ
ืืืงืื ืื ืื ืฉืื ื ืืคืขื ืืื ืืคืขื ืืขืื ืื ืื
ืฉืื ื ืืืืงื ืืืกืชืืืืช ืขื ืืฉื ืื
ืืืื ืื ื ืืกืคืจ ืืื ืื ื ืืจืื ืืื ืืช ืื ืื
ืืืจืฃ ืื ืฉืื ื
ืืคืขื ืื ืืฉ ืื ื
ืืื ืืจื ื ืื ืืฉ ืื ื tring ื ืื ืืฉ ืื ื
ืคืืืคืืจืืืช ืืกืืจ ืื ืืฉ ืื ื ืืืืืช ืืฉืื ืกืืค
ืืืก ืื
ืื ืื ื ืืืื ืงืจืืืื ืืื time high ืื
ืื ืื ื ืืืืืื ืืฉืื ืืืืฆืข
ื ืข 150 ืื 50 ืื ืื ืื ื ืืืืขืื ืืืกืชืื
ืืืจืคืื ืื ืืฉ ืื ื ืขืจืืฆื ืขืจืืฆืื ืคืื ื ืกืื
ืืื ื ืืืื ืืืืฉืื ืืื ืืกืืืืช ืฉืืคืขื ืื
ืฉืื ื 2000
ื ืืฉื ืช 2000 ืืืื ืืจื ื ืจืง ื ืื ืก ืขืื ืื ืืื
ืืกืคืืง ืืคืืืงืฆืืืช ื-27 ืืื ืืืจ ืืคืืืงืฆืืืช
ืืื ืืจืืืชื ืื ืจืื ืื ืืฉืชืืฉืชื ืืื ืืืืคืื
ืื ืืืื ืฉืืืืชื ืืคืืืงืฆืื ืืืืคืื ืืืื
ืืืืฉื ืืื ืื ืืืืืื ืืจื ืืืื ืคืื ื ืก
ืืืืืืื
ืืฉืืืจ ืืืช ืืืืจืช ืฉืื ืืืื ืืืืืช ื ืคืืื
ื ืืกืคืช ืฉื 48% ืื
56% ืื ื ืืืฉื
ืฉืื ืื ื ื ืจืื ืืช ืื ืืชืืื
ืืงืจืืช
ืืจืืข ืื ืื ื ืขืื ืื ืจืืืื ืืช ืื ืื ืืืืจ
ืฉืื ืื ืืงืจื ืชืจืื ืืื ืื ื ื ืืชื ืืื ืขืืฉืื
ืชืกืจืื ืืื ืืืืืืื c ืืกื ืื ืื ื ืืืืขืื
ืืืื ื
5641 ืืืื ืืื
ืงืืจืก ืืื ืื ืืืืช ืืืืข ืืช ืื ืื ื ืืืืข ืฉืืฉ
ืืืืฆืข 150 ืื ื ืืืืข ืฉื ืืขื ื ืื ืืื ื ืืืืข
ืฉืขืืื ื ืืื ื ืืืืข ืฉืืจื ื ื ืืฆื ืืืืจื
ืืื ืื ื ืฉืื
ืขืืืื ืืื ืื ืืื ืื ืื ื ืฉื ืชืงื ืื ืื ืืกืืจ
ืืืืจ ืืื ืื ืื ืื ืื ืื ืข ืฉื ืคืจืฅ ืืื ืืื ืคื
ืฉืื ืืืจ ืืจืืข ืฉืืืืจ ืืืื ืชืืืืจ ืืช
ืืืื ืื ืื ื
ืงืืจืกืื ืืืื ืืื ืื ื ืืื ืืืื ืืงืืืช ืกืจืืื
ืื ืฉืงืืจื ื-13 ืืกืคืืืืจ
ืื ืื ื ืคืืืช ืืืืื ืืกื ืื ืืืื ืื
ืื ืืืืจ ืฉืื ื ืชืืื ืืฉื ืืช ืืืืื ืืืื ื ื ืจืื
ืืช ืื ืื ืืข ืืช ืื ืืืื ืื ืืชื ืืืฉืฉืื ืฉืืื
ืืงืจืืก ืคืฉืื ืชืชืงืื ื ืืช ืืืคืืืงืฆืื ืขื ืืืืคืื
ืฉืืื ืคืฉืื ืชืขืื ืืืืืืื ืืขืจืืฅ ืืกืจืืื ืื
ืืืืืืื ืืงืืืื ืืื ืืงืื ืืืจ ืื ืืชื ืื
ืืืืขืื ืืงืจืื ืืจืคืื ืงืื ืืช ืืงืืจืก ืคืฉืื
ืืงืจืื
ืืจืคืื ืืื ืืืืืฅ ืืืื ืืฉืืื ืื ืกืจืืื ืื
ืืืืืฆืื ืฉืื ื ืื ืืืชื ืืืจ ืื ืืืื ืืงืจืืก ื
40 50
ื ืื ื ืื ืจืืื ืืช ืื ืืจืืข
ืื ืชืื ืื ืื ืืจืืื ืืช ืื ืืจืืข ืืื ืื ืืืืจ
ืฉืื ืื ืืงืจื ืื ืื ื ืืืืืจ ืกืคืืืืจ ืืื ืืืืฉ
ืืจืืข ืืฉ ืืืืจืืช ืื ืืืืขืื ืื ืื ืฉืื ืืืฉ
ืืืจืืช ืจืืืืช ืฉืืืืืืช ืืช ืืฉืืง ืืืืืื ืืืชื
ืื ืืฉืืง ืืื ืฉืืื ืื ืืืข ืืืืืช ืืจืืืืช ืื
ืื ืืืืื ืื ืืื ืื ืืืืข ืืชืงื ืื ืื ืื ื
ืืฉื ืช ืืืืจืืช ืืืจืืืื ืจืืืืช ืืงืื ืฆืืขื
ืืชืืคื 10 ืขื ืฉื ืขื 10 ืืืจ ืขืื ืฉื ืืื ืื
ืืื ืืืจ ืืืืื ื ืืคืฉืจ ืืช ืกืืคืืจ ืืฉืืง ืขืืื
ืืงืจืืก ืืกืคืจ ืืื ืืื ืืขืื ืืื ืชืืืก ืืื ืื ื
ืื ืื ื ืคืืืช ืืืืื ืืกื ืื ืืืื ืื ืืื
ืฉืกืืคืจื ืฉืืฉืืง ืขืืื ืืงืจืืก ืืกืคืจืื ืืืชื ืืืจ
ืฉื ื ืฉื ืชืืื ืฉืืืฉ ืื ืืืืชืื ืืืจ ืฉืืืฉ ืฉื ืื
ืื ืื ื ืขืืฉืื ืืกืฃ ืืจ ืฉืืืฉ ืฉื ืื ืืขืื ืฉืื ื
ืืื ืืคื ืกืื ืฉืื ื ืืืื ืืื ืืื ืื ืชืฉืืื ืืช
ืขืฆืืื ืืื ืืชื ืืงืฉืืืื ืืืื ืฉืจืง ืืคืืืืื
ืื ืืืื ืฉืืืื ืฉืืื ืืื ืื ืื ืฉืฆืคืื
ืชืชืืื ื ื ืืืืื ืืฉืืจ ืืช ืืื ืืืืื ืืช ืืืจืืช
ืืจืืืืช ืืช ืืื ืื ืื ื ื ืืืื ืคื ืชืืฉืืื
ืืขืงืื ืืื ืชืงืืคื ืืืชืจ ืืจืชืงืช ืืืชืงืืคื
ืื ืืืืืช ืืืืืืช ืืืื ืืืืืื ืื ืื ื ืื
ืืกืืืืื ืืืขืช ืขืืื ืืืื ืฉืืื ืงืืจืืช ืื ื
ืืชื ืืืื ืืืืจืืงื ืชืืื ืจืื ืืงืืื ืฉืขืฉืืชื
ืืื ืกืืจ ืืืืืื
ืืชืืืจื ืื ืืืื ืงืจืืกื ืื ืื ื ื ืจืื ืืืชื
ืืจืื ืืคื ื ืขื ืืืืืื ืืื ืขื ืืืืื ืืื
ืืืืื
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