The dollar is in a secular bear market

Gary Savage
8 Sept 202407:26

Summary

TLDRThe speaker analyzes currency trends, suggesting the US dollar has ended a 14-year bull market and is entering a bear market. They anticipate a short-term rally in the dollar but believe long-term trends indicate a downward trajectory influenced by the Euro and Yen's strength. The Euro appears to be starting a new bull market, while the Yen is in a long-term rally, both of which could push the dollar lower. Gold, which recently broke above resistance, may continue to rise if the dollar weakens further.

Takeaways

  • 📉 The speaker believes the US dollar has completed a 14-year secular bull market and has started a bear market since late 2022.
  • 📈 Gold began a rally in July, breaking above the resistance zone and has been in a sideways consolidation since then, with a potential breakout expected soon.
  • 🤔 Contrarians, including the speaker, anticipate a dollar rally from the current support zone, marked by pivot points and the 200-week moving average.
  • 💶 The Euro, which makes up the largest portion of the dollar index, is suspected to have completed a secular bear market bottom in 2022, possibly starting a new secular bull market.
  • 💹 The speaker suggests that if the Euro breaks through the 200-week moving average, the dollar will likely continue to decline.
  • 💴 The Japanese Yen is thought to have completed a 12-year secular bear market and is starting a new long-term bull market, which would also push the dollar lower.
  • 📊 The speaker expects the Yen's intermediate cycle to rally for at least 15 weeks, suggesting the dollar should drop if the Yen continues to rally.
  • 📈 The Euro might be starting a new daily cycle rally, which, if confirmed, would push the dollar lower as it makes another higher high.
  • 📉 The speaker notes a potential daily cycle bottom for the dollar, but if the Euro and Yen are in an advancing phase, the dollar may not form a double bottom and will continue to decline.
  • 🏆 Gold is currently in a daily cycle low but could consolidate instead of correcting sharply, with a potential breakout above the 2550 resistance zone if the dollar continues to decline.

Q & A

  • What is the speaker's view on the secular bull market for the US dollar?

    -The speaker believes that the US dollar has completed a secular bull market that lasted about 14 years and has started a bear market.

  • When did the speaker indicate the US dollar started its bear market move?

    -The speaker suggests that the US dollar started its bear market move around the beginning of July.

  • What is the significance of the 2450 resistance zone mentioned in the context of gold?

    -The 2450 resistance zone is significant because gold broke out above it, which the speaker sees as a sign of a rally in gold prices.

  • What is the speaker's expectation for gold's price movement in the short term?

    -The speaker anticipates that gold might be moving down into a daily cycle low but could consolidate instead of correcting sharply if the dollar continues to decline.

  • Why does the speaker think the dollar might not rally as expected?

    -The speaker believes the dollar might not rally as expected because the Euro and the Yen, which make up a significant part of the dollar index, appear to be starting new secular bull markets.

  • What is the speaker's view on the Euro's role in the US dollar's future movement?

    -The speaker is convinced that the Euro has completed a secular bear market bottom and is starting a new secular bull market, which would push the dollar lower.

  • What is the significance of the 200-week moving average for the speaker in analyzing the dollar?

    -The 200-week moving average is significant as it is a support level for the dollar, and the speaker is watching to see if it will break convincingly to the downside.

  • What does the speaker suggest about the Yen's market trend?

    -The speaker suggests that the Yen has completed a 12-year secular bear market and is starting a new long-term bull market rally, which would also push the dollar lower.

  • What is the speaker's expectation for the intermediate cycle in the Yen?

    -The speaker expects the intermediate cycle in the Yen to rally for at least 15 weeks or more, indicating that the Yen should continue to rally for many more weeks.

  • How does the speaker interpret the current daily cycle bottom in the dollar?

    -The speaker interprets the current daily cycle bottom in the dollar as potentially not forming a double bottom, but rather as a continuation of the dollar's downward trend if the Euro and the Yen continue to rally.

  • What is the speaker's long-term outlook for the US dollar?

    -The speaker's long-term outlook for the US dollar is bearish, suggesting that the dollar's rally he is looking for may not materialize for a while, and the dollar could continue to decline.

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Dollar TrendsGold RallyCurrency AnalysisEuro MarketYen Bull MarketMarket ForecastInvestment InsightsEconomic OutlookFinancial StrategySecular Market
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