Bitcoin, is it time to sell? What the data says about May

Summary

The video script discusses the 'Sell in May and go away' strategy in the context of Bitcoin trading. The speaker reviews historical data to forecast future market trends, comparing bear and bull market years. They analyze various factors like the halving event, market sentiment, and search trends to assess the current state of Bitcoin. The speaker also explores the possibility of a price rally in the second half of the year, suggesting that despite the hype and volatility, the market might see higher prices by October. They caution against extreme predictions and emphasize the importance of flexibility and data-driven decision-making in trading.

Takeaways

• 📈 The 'Sell in May and Go Away' strategy suggests closing positions in May and returning to the market in October, with a historical hit rate of 69% for Bitcoin.
• 📊 Excluding bear market years, the strategy has a 90% hit rate, indicating it could be effective in non-bear market conditions.
• 🤔 The speaker is skeptical about the strategy for the next 6 months, suggesting that the second half of the year might see higher prices than current levels.
• 📉 Bitcoin has experienced a downtrend recently, with the price dropping but still within a trading range, indicating a potential for recovery.
• 📅 Historical data shows that May has a 54% chance of a positive return, and 60% when excluding bearish years.
• 🔍 Google Trends data indicates a decrease in public interest in Bitcoin, which the speaker views as a positive sign for the bull market.
• 📉 The Fear & Greed index has been dropping, suggesting the market is less euphoric and potentially due for a sentiment reset.
• 📈 The speaker anticipates that if the current trading range persists, Bitcoin could break out to new highs in the latter half of 2024 or early 2025.
• 🚫 The speaker advises against labeling the current cycle as 'left' or 'right' translated, emphasizing the importance of market flexibility.
• 💰 A potential price target for Bitcoin is suggested to be between $100,000 to $150,000, with the caveat of how the market reacts to these resistance levels.
• ⏳ The speaker plans to reassess the market situation towards the end of 2024 or early 2025, depending on how conditions evolve.

Q & A

What is the 'Sell in May and Go Away' strategy in the context of the video?

The 'Sell in May and Go Away' strategy is a trading strategy that suggests investors close their positions in May and stay away from the market until October. The idea is to buy back in on October 31st (Halloween) to benefit from the 'Halloween effect,' which historically has shown the market running up into Christmas, creating a 'Christmas rally.'

What does the video suggest about the Bitcoin market's performance in the short term?

The video suggests that in the short term, Bitcoin has been trading sideways between $60k and $70k and does not expect new all-time highs to be reached soon. It indicates that the market has not collapsed but has been consolidating.

What was the general sentiment around Bitcoin in March, as discussed in the video?

In March, there was extreme hype and greed, with many influencers predicting Bitcoin to reach $100,000 before the halving event. However, the video's analysis suggests that the market did not continue to rise as expected and instead experienced a collapse in sentiment and price.

What is the significance of the halving event in the Bitcoin cycle according to the video?

The halving event is significant as it is a predetermined event that reduces the reward for mining new blocks by 50%. The video discusses how the market leading up to the halving was hyped, but the event itself was a non-event in terms of its immediate impact on the market timing.

What does the video suggest about the potential future price target for Bitcoin?

The video suggests a reasonable price target for Bitcoin could be between $100,000 to $150,000, with the caveat that the market's response to these resistance levels will be crucial. It also mentions that a million-dollar Bitcoin is not expected in this cycle.

How does the video use Google Trends data in its analysis?

The video uses Google Trends data to gauge interest in Bitcoin. It notes that peak interest on Google Trends often precedes market peaks and that a decline in search interest can indicate a cooling off of the market, which can be healthy for a bull market.

What is the 'Halloween effect' mentioned in the video?

The 'Halloween effect' is a term used to describe a historical pattern in the stock market where the market tends to perform better during the 'Halloween' period (from October 31st to the end of the year) than during the 'summer' period (from May to October).

What is the hit rate for the 'Sell in May and Go Away' strategy in the entire history of Bitcoin?

The hit rate for the 'Sell in May and Go Away' strategy in the entire history of Bitcoin is 69%. If the bear market years are excluded, the hit rate improves to 90%.

What does the video suggest about the potential market behavior in the second half of the year?

The video suggests that the second half of the year could see higher prices than the current level, assuming the market does not enter a bear market. It indicates that if the market opens in May around $62,000 or $63,000, it is likely to be higher by October based on historical data.

How does the video discuss the fear and greed index in relation to the Bitcoin market?

The video discusses the fear and greed index, noting that there has been a lack of extreme fear in the current bull market, which is unusual. It suggests that if the market sentiment were to drop into a fearful zone, it could reset the market sentiment overall.

What is the video's stance on the 'Hurst Cycle' and its relevance to Bitcoin?

The video dismisses the 'Hurst Cycle' as not being particularly useful for Bitcoin analysis, suggesting that it's better to focus on observable market data and trends rather than relying on such theoretical cycles.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Bitcoin Sell in May and Go Away Strategy Analysis

The speaker discusses the 'Sell in May and Go Away' strategy in relation to Bitcoin, examining its historical performance over monthly, six-monthly, and annual periods. They compare these findings with both bear and bull market years in the Bitcoin cycle, specifically focusing on the 4E cycle. The analysis includes a review of past predictions and market reactions, including the failed expectation of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before the halving event. The speaker also touches on the current market situation, noting the sideways trading range between $60k and $70k and the potential for a continued downtrend.

05:01

🎃 Halloween Effect and Market Trends

The video script explains the concept of the 'Halloween Effect,' which suggests that the market tends to rise from late October through Christmas. The speaker reviews the historical data to show that buying back into Bitcoin on October 31st could be a profitable strategy, especially considering the potential for a market rally later in the year due to factors like elections and increased money supply. They also discuss the use of Google Trends as an indicator of market interest and the importance of analyzing past market behavior to forecast future trends.

10:04

📉 Analyzing Bitcoin's Past Performance and Future Predictions

The speaker delves into the historical performance of Bitcoin, focusing on the patterns of rallies and downturns. They discuss the potential for a market recovery after a significant move and the possibility of another downturn that may not be as severe as some expect. The analysis includes a review of past market swings, the fear and greed index, and the importance of being flexible in one's investment strategy. The speaker also considers the impact of external events, such as banking crises, on market behavior.

15:05

📊 Monthly Analysis and the 'Sell in May' Strategy

The video script presents an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's monthly performance, highlighting the 'Sell in May' strategy's historical success rates. The speaker provides statistics on the likelihood of a green month in May and the potential outcomes based on the performance of the previous month. They also discuss the importance of monitoring the market's behavior rather than relying solely on calendar-based strategies. The analysis includes a look at the four-year cycle and the potential for Bitcoin to push higher in the next leg of the market.

20:07

🔮 Projecting Bitcoin's Future Price Targets

The speaker offers a speculative analysis of Bitcoin's future price targets, using the total range of the previous bull market as a reference. They discuss the possibility of the market reaching $80,000 to $150,000, with the caveat that these are rough estimates and the actual market performance could vary. The speaker emphasizes the importance of monitoring how the market reacts to these price levels and suggests that reaching these targets could signal a time to consider selling positions. They also provide a broader perspective on the market's potential trajectory into 2024 and 2025, encouraging viewers to stay flexible and responsive to market signals.

Keywords

💡Sell in May and Go Away

This is a trading strategy that suggests investors close their positions in May and stay away from the market until October. It is based on the historical observation that the stock market tends to perform poorly during these months. In the video, the presenter discusses the strategy's applicability to Bitcoin, noting that it has a 69% success rate historically and a 90% success rate when excluding bear market years.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates on a peer-to-peer network known as the blockchain. It is the primary focus of the video, where the presenter analyzes its historical price movements, market sentiment, and potential future trends. The script discusses Bitcoin's performance in relation to various market indicators and cycles.

💡All-Time High

The all-time high refers to the highest price that an asset, in this case Bitcoin, has ever reached. The video mentions several occasions where Bitcoin approached or reached new all-time highs, which are pivotal moments that influence investor sentiment and market analysis.

💡Fear and Greed Index

The Fear and Greed Index is a measure of market sentiment that looks at various factors to assess the overall mood of the market. It is used in the video to highlight how the sentiment around Bitcoin has shifted from extreme greed to more neutral or fearful positions, which can influence trading strategies and market expectations.

💡Halving Event

The halving event refers to the mechanism in Bitcoin's protocol where the reward for mining new blocks is cut in half approximately every four years. This reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, which can impact supply and demand dynamics. The video discusses the hype around the halving event and its effect on Bitcoin's price.

💡ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds)

ETFs are investment funds that are traded on stock exchanges, much like individual stocks. In the context of the video, ETFs are mentioned as a factor that could influence Bitcoin's price due to their role in providing investment exposure to the asset. The presenter discusses the hype around ETFs and their potential impact on market sentiment.

💡Google Trends

Google Trends is a tool that analyzes the popularity of search queries in Google's search engine over time. In the video, it is used to gauge public interest in Bitcoin, with the presenter noting that a decrease in search trends can indicate a cooling off of hype around the cryptocurrency.

💡Bull Market

A bull market is a financial market condition in which prices are rising or are expected to rise. The video discusses the characteristics of a bull market for Bitcoin, including sustained price increases and investor optimism, and contrasts this with bear market conditions.

💡Bear Market

A bear market is the opposite of a bull market, characterized by falling prices and negative investor sentiment. The video script uses the term to describe periods when Bitcoin's price is declining, and it analyzes the potential for a bear market to influence the 'Sell in May and Go Away' strategy.

💡Hurst Cycles

Hurst Cycles is a technical analysis tool used to identify trends and potential turning points in financial markets. The video references Hurst Cycles to discuss the potential for Bitcoin's price to follow certain patterns, which could help in predicting future market movements.

💡On-chain Analysis

On-chain analysis refers to the examination of blockchain data to derive insights about the cryptocurrency market. It is mentioned in the video as one of the factors that influenced expectations during Bitcoin's price movements, particularly leading up to the halving event.

Highlights

The video discusses the 'Sell in May and go away' strategy in relation to Bitcoin, analyzing its historical effectiveness.

Presenter reviews monthly, six-monthly, and annual data to understand Bitcoin's performance over time.

Comparison of Bitcoin's performance in bear and bull market years in terms of market cycles.

Mistakes in the market analysis regarding the 'harving' cycle are corrected, emphasizing the 4E cycle instead.

The current Bitcoin price is analyzed, noting a six-day downtrend and the potential for a sideways trading range.

Historical data is used to forecast future market behavior, with a focus on past peaks and market sentiment.

The influence of external events, such as ETFs and the 'harving', on market hype and subsequent corrections is discussed.

Google Trends data is utilized to gauge public interest in Bitcoin, which has decreased from its peak.

Fear and greed indices are reviewed to assess market sentiment, showing a drop from extreme greed to a more neutral stance.

The potential for a market rally followed by a downturn is considered, based on past weekly Bitcoin performance.

The 'Sell in May and go away' strategy is found to have a 69% success rate historically, and 90% excluding bear market years.

Data suggests that if Bitcoin's price is lower in May, it is likely to be higher by October, contradicting the 'Sell in May' strategy.

The video proposes a potential price target for Bitcoin of $100,000 to $150,000, with caution regarding market reactions at these levels.

The presenter advises flexibility in market positions and avoiding labeling the current cycle as 'left' or 'right' translated.

A macro analysis projects Bitcoin's all-time high potential based on the previous bull market's range.

The video concludes by suggesting that the second half of the year may present better opportunities for Bitcoin price increases.

The presenter expresses skepticism about the 'million-dollar Bitcoin' predictions for this cycle, advocating for a more conservative approach.

The video encourages viewers to make their own decisions about market strategies, rather than relying solely on historical patterns.

Transcripts

all right guys we're back with another

data fi video on bitcoin looking at the

possibility of a sell in may go away

strategy going to review the data on

this particular strategy going

specifically into the monthly the six

monthly and the annually and how that

has played out over the years comparing

that with the bare Market years and the

bull market years in terms of the

Bitcoin cycle and no not the harving

cycle forget that trash

we're looking at the 4E cycle left and

right so I got plenty to get through

with you today so make sure you do hit

that like And subscribe button hope you

had a fantastic weekend we are back

we're going to do more out on location

this week but today I need to be in the

office to get through the uh the data

here and check out the charts of course

you're doing a fantastic job thanks

again we are beating this YouTube

algorithm and YouTube audience who

reviews videos with warnings and

breakings and big titles so smash up the

likes let's go 4,000 likes today all

right let's kick it off guys the daily

chart here for

BTC basically 6 days down now we're

underneath the old or the current

all-time high for the last 46 days we're

coming into our 46th day uh when you see

this and I don't expect that to change

soon obviously soon could be a week two

weeks I don't think we're going to shoot

to new alltime highs if it was to happen

I don't think it' be that sustainable so

this is where we've come from these tops

this this is my take on reviewing

history studying the past to forecast

the future I've got plenty of receipts

going back to April and March at the

Peaks and you can see a lot of the

comments around that time when we were

at that peak in March

were having a go at my analysis

suggesting that the market had to

continue up in light of the harving and

all that sort of stuff and obvious VI ly

that hasn't been the case however we

still have not collapsed we're basically

been churning sideways between 60 and

70k so on the short-term review here uh

before we get into that data essentially

that was the peak there in around

mid-march where almost every single

influencer was looking at 100 Grand

before Haring because of the onchain

analysis because ETFs were buying

because harving was coming up because

you name it it had to keep doing what it

was doing and then

this collapsed well you know the whole

narrative collapsed and then it came

over to this point so I'm moving this

Arrow here and that was the idea

bitcoin's going to 100 Grand before the

harming you know as it started to rise

again they're all calling that the low

was in big channels talking about low

was in and the market was going to go

racing up to new highs again because

that's what it had done and it didn't

occur that was the lower top the

complacency bounce if you're familiar

with the Wall Street cheat sheet it fell

again tried to again and they came back

100 Grand before the Haring all this

sort of stuff that was early April but

that was the fake out so we got a fake

out we looked at that $725,000 level

specifically and Bitcoin faked out above

that and then came crashing down from

that point again taking out this next

low and so they basically cemented this

sideways trading range for Bitcoin

throughout the course of March and now

April and so April I mean we got 24

hours to go for the monthly close I

think we probably turn into a red month

I don't think there's too many people

that would say otherwise uh again just

looking at this this data here we're in

a red month we're down about

12% on the month and uh basically from

from that point we had the fake out

Market collapsed we had the harving

which was in the scheme of things a

non-event for the timing it was a lot of

hype leading into the event and

basically a month before it we got the

top so the 14th was the top and then the

20th so basically 5 weeks before the

harving is where the Peak Interest died

off then we had another 50% rejection

multiple times so that's what we're

looking at there and then there that was

a 50% roughly 67k 66 a2k and now we are

down from that rejection yet again just

like it rejected on the 15th of April so

now leads us to present day where we

currently sit on this

$63,000 level as as I talked about in

last week's videos was going to be a

critical area for Bitcoin because you

saw a lot of action take place in mid

April leading into that harving and now

we find ourselves way back down to that

level again so let's kick it off from

here before I get into my opinions on uh

my own analysis later in the video first

up what is this selling may go away

strategy it's a trading strategy which

recommends investors close their

positions in May and walk away from the

market until October and then you have

to specifically buy back the 31st of

October which is your Halloween day for

the us and that is your Halloween effect

which suggests from previous data that

the market runs up into Christmas which

gives you that Christmas rally so you've

got Thanksgiving and then you've got

Christmas and the market will run up

from that this year it might continue to

do that the data suggest the wood we've

got the election coming up and then more

and more money going into the system and

basically

that could happen later in the year but

let's just keep focusing on what we've

got so far where we've come from so that

we can try to forecast where we're going

with this so these were the posts there

if you want to check them out they're on

X link to that is in the video

description so you can check out all the

receipts the stuff that we've been

talking about from those Peaks the call

it nasty comments uh it got very hot and

heated at that Peak markets come down

from that point and things seem like

they have cooled off from there and

we've definitely now seen the cooling

off on the Google Trend words don't come

at me with the old no one's using Google

to search anymore AI

BS that's going to take a while to

change and Google is also using AI so

Google Trend words are still very very

helpful if you don't want to use them in

your own analysis go for God don't use

them but this has been very very helpful

and look at that Peak Interest came the

week before the alltime high and then

the alltime high week was just under

that top so you had a a lowering of

Interest Google Trends of course people

aren't searching Bitcoin as much and we

ran into that Peak at the top here so

this was Peak search term for Bitcoin

alltime High came the week after and now

basically the search term is absolutely

died off from here back down to 20 on

the reading here which is takes us back

to previous levels uh that we saw after

the ETF and then all through that grind

of 2023 of that 7mon accumulation range

it's not all bad news this is not bad

news at all okay it's fantastic for the

bull market because we are getting rid

of all the nonsense that came through at

the Peaks back in March back in early

March and also all the the nonsense that

came through just a hysteria not

necessarily nonsense of the fundamental

events of the ETFs but the hysteria you

need to get rid of that hysteria the

search term has died off it has gone

back to that same level of those periods

of the grind of 2023 and also some brief

periods through the ETF hype that's just

a fact that's not my opinion and you can

see the excitement has died off now the

I said it's not all bad news because

again just looking specifically at the

price chart we well the Bitcoin price is

still at the levels that it was when it

had extreme hype that was at the peaks

of the search term but the price is

still in that trading range so there's

still interest there's still holders out

there of course

but at least that um the major euphoric

interest has died off and I think we

will get that back that's my now now my

opinion just based on what we're seeing

with the uh support and resistance

levels coming in on the chart this is

the fear and greed chart it has been

dropping off you can see we had extreme

greed in late March or sorry early March

leading into that Peak and then the

greed died out look at the greed it was

still extreme but it was lower highs on

the extreme greed but higher highs on

the price chart what am I talking about

that there there's higher highs there's

lower highs this continued to die off uh

I've talked about this before being one

of the least feared bull markets we have

not well the the fear of the market has

not dropped back into extreme fear since

essentially the low of last cycle so we

there's just been no fear of this bull

market will it come probably but just

taking an objective look at the data the

fear and greed has not hit extreme fear

throughout this entire cycle uh except

for the low so basically the low point

there at the FTX collapse and then on

the channel That time a year and a half

ago whatever that bottom was I suggested

that that was the low because of the

rising um greed you know we leaving the

extreme fear and coming up into just

fear yet the price was going lower so

people were less fearful of the market

around these lows and as it started to

climb out you saw even less fear in the

market and more of a neutral stance as

you can see from the yellow and the

light green in the background here just

leading into that neutral stance as the

price continued to rise if we were to

see price come back down and still

remain at higher lows to all of this

movement then you might see a bit of a

shake out here on the market sentiment

that could drop it back into the the

fearful Zone which could reset the

market sentiment overall now looking at

the weekly here this is a 4 we red

period for Bitcoin this has signaled

rallies in the past and then another

move to the downside doesn't have to be

severe so the downside for the whole

movement was 20% in that 7mon grinding

another 22% the banking crisis non

crisis was

21% all I'm getting from this is even if

we were to see a rally there might be

another leg down but it might not be

extreme that um many are hoping for some

sort of extreme move below 40K the only

time that we can see that occur in 2023

was the banking crisis so you had an

extreme fearful event lots of people

bought up that low and then it broke out

and took out those tops without any sort

of pullback again so if we were to get

some sort of extreme cataclysmic event

maybe that could be the signal that we

won't see the market rally and then put

in a new low that could be the low

itself because you've got enough selling

pressure to uh clear out the market of

those Sellers and then start to climb

higher just like what happened in the

banking crisis Michael has covered it

pretty well on his channel as well you

can find that in the uh the video

description right here so that's my

brother doing more analysis on bitcoin

so looking at the swings themselves the

yellow line here the gain swing

indicator link to this top of the video

description you get a 3 sday trial so

after these long swings we've seen two

swings down in the case of 2021 we've

seen that six weeks down in the swing in

the case of 2019 into 2020 but remember

that was at the earlier stages of the

market that was basically from the low 6

months up and then 6 months down whereas

we are a long way from that low now

we've had that 12-month period already

and we're up at these high prices so if

we look back to the previous Cycles uh

after significant moves out there was

two red months down it was still within

a trading range in in 2016 into 2017 but

you only had that 2 months down before

the market was trying to recover new

fresh highs right in the first move out

you had three months up and then the

pause there roughly five months but in

terms of red well you had one reversed

came back down for the following month

and then green so we're just looking at

what a churn sideways looks like the

cycle before leading into that peak of

November again several months up then

there was a pause one red month still

within the trading range there so it was

about four months in the trading range

went on the next move into April there's

your April top and then again two red

months but nothing overly severe for the

time and then stayed within the trading

range and then worked its way out into

that final Peak so in the bull markets

barring this one here which led into

that Co collapse you can see anything

from about 1 to 2 months of red in a row

so this could be the final red and maybe

May you'd see some downside and then a

higher close so that's also a

possibility but at the time it might

feel like May is just it's all over and

it's only going to close red what we've

seen in the past one to two months on an

average would be your red periods coming

up so we've looked at the swings green

months in a row red months in a row

within a bull market after a swing and

also the turns so we got a so far a

March top and like we've covered for

previous years you've got Junes March

junees March April June so it seems like

a pretty typical period for uh the

market to turn in and then if we add

that to the correction one to two months

maybe we see the low in April maybe we

see the low in uh in May well it would

be typically doing what it's done in the

past one to two months down it would

churn sideways for another couple of

months and then start to work its way

higher obviously we don't have that data

for the next four months just trying to

understand what's happened in the past

and then continue to watch the signals

as they play out day to day week to week

to see if we do get those higher lows

forming now onto the monthly analysis

here just looking at what's happened in

the past May using every single month of

ma it's roughly 54% chance of a green

month if we take out the bearish years

so the bare years 22 184 2014 well then

it gives us a 60% chance of a green

month and if we just look at what's

happened with April's if April was red

May has been red and that was in 2015 in

2021 let's see what happens in 2024 of

course um if April was green well that

doesn't typically say that may has to

also be green you've got two occasions

there in 2023 and 2013 where April was

green and may was red so I think it's

important just to have to watch what the

chart is doing next I'm not paying as

much attention to the month-to-month as

opposed to say the six-monthly chart

here and also the swings themselves so

so the data for sell in may go away and

then buy back on the 31st of October has

a 69% hit rate for the entire history of

Bitcoin now if you take out the bare

Market years of 2014 2018 and 20122 an

even better hit rate 90% so if you get

out of those years every sort of four

years where the market is basically

straight down that would save you a lot

of heartache and the biggest losses

themselves 24 31 and 45% because the one

in 2011 was only uh 8% now if we look

forward the 12 months of May so may to

April you got a 69% hit rate if you just

to buy on the first and hold it until

the 30th of April next year 7 out of 10

times you're going to end up green so

it's probably not the best strategy to

do that for the 12 months especially if

it's a non bare Market year which I

don't think we're in one this year but

again you're going to have to decide

that for yourself that would lead you to

a 90% hit rate of green so a pretty

decent 12 months ahead from May through

to April of

20125 so it's saying that the prices

would be higher just looking at this

2021 was the obvious example that it it

wasn't so from May into April of 2022

the market was 35% lower so pretty big

hit there as for the 4year cycle low to

low not this harving cycle BS as soon as

you can scrap that from your your life I

think you're going to do a lot better

that's the stuff that the YouTube

Bitcoin crypto influencers talk about

scrap it from your life so low to low

because this can be used on any Market

you're looking at Hurst Cycles that's

what this is the left and the right

translated cycle now previously previous

cycle 2019 a lot thought the 19 was

going to be a left translated cycle

because it ran up so hard paused for a

long time Consolidated and then we went

into a right so we got a peak in the

second half of the four years that is

all that means right it was a strong

bull market Case Closed Market ran down

for 12 months and then here we are again

so again two months ago we saw a lot of

people suggesting that we're going to

see a left translated cycle this was

going to shoot to 100K 150k it might

have been over in March it might have

been over in ail and that was it but I

still don't think that that is the case

especially if we get this grinding

effect over the the next month maybe two

or three months from here just looking

at the previous Cycles you can see we

had five months five months five months

four months in a trading range there's

going to be a lot of emotions up and

down but by the time we break out of

those tops it could be June it could be

July it could be August and that would

then lead to the possibility of the

market running up into this next top

which could happen sometime late quarter

4 or sorry quarter 4 of 2024 or quarter

1 2025 we have to keep going with the

chart for all we know it could grind out

again and then keep pushing higher till

the end of 2025 so I personally would

not put a label on this to say that it

must be a left or it must be a right

because by the time you get to that

stage if conditions have changed it's

important to be able to be flexible and

get out of a position or be flexible and

remain with the trend as it continues

higher so that's a look at the uh the

4-year cycle there this grinding out at

the moment whether it lasts a month 3

months is looking like a very very

healthy thing for Bitcoin to then push

higher for this next leg to the upside

just looking at the breakouts of the 50%

levels here so we got the 50% of the

entire bare Market range once it breaks

out closes above that level in the past

we've seen approximately 13 months

whoops to the all-time high 12 months to

the alltime high 10 months to the

all-time high so what does that look

like from the breakout bar which was

February 10 months so using the shortest

period here that would take us out to

about December of 24 so that's where I'm

getting that end of 24 date from and if

we were to go something like 13 months

from the alltime high uh from that

breakout of the 50% to the all-time high

that'll take us to about March of 25 so

I'm keeping the options open there of

that period of quarter 4 to quarter 1

coming up um end of 24 or early 25 and

then reassessing to see where the

market's at if this thing is

ridiculously crazy like it was at the

peak here and everyone's thinking it's

going to go to 500k or something

ridiculous then maybe it would be time

for a bit of a a cool off and then you

would see whether the swings start to

break down that would be a very very big

signal that the masses have got it wrong

again and you're probably going to see

further downside in terms of prices uh

just want to have a quick look here

something fun to to play with looking at

the total range now so I'm not wetted to

this whatsoever we're looking at the

entire range of the previous bull market

projected off the current cycle low so

the current bare Market low of November

20120 50% was at 482k and we saw some

resistance there on the ETF news as the

market ran up into January there was a

pullback and now we've seing it break

through the 50% so this is what we do on

the shortterm basis but on a macro scale

here using yearly uh moves in the market

100% gets us to 81 A5 th000 so we're not

there yet we have to see how it hits and

what type of reaction there is at 81 or

does it slice through and then onto uh

one sorry 150% would take it out to

about

$114,000 now a doubling of the entire

move projected off this low at 15K would

take the market to about 147 so as a

Rough Guide something like 100 to

150k could be a reasonable price Target

but with a big disclaimer how is it

going to respond to those priced uh

resistance levels in the

$80,000 that is the disclaimer on these

moves to get to 100 to 150 I know it is

way under what a lot of people in in the

Bitcoin space look at but I like to keep

it a little bit more sensible and not go

off the deep end with million dollar

Bitcoin calls that could be many cycles

away I don't expect the million dollar

Bitcoin to be in this cycle and uh I'm

happy to be proven wrong of course I

think many people would be very happy to

be proven wrong if Bitcoin can get to a

million but that aside I'm interested to

see how it reacts to 80 grand sometime

later this year probably the second half

of the year and then how does it react

in that 100 to

150k and that's where it could start to

look to get out of more positions so the

end of this has been mostly my uh

thoughts on where the market would go

what I would do and what happens at

those points the the data specific stuff

we've covered there looking at the

monthly returns going across month and

uh sorry 6 month and 12 months and I

think I'm going to leave the uh altcoins

to the next video plenty of time to get

through this has has had some 50%

rejections here and of course the the

volume is still dying off but overall I

hope that has helped you for May May

hasn't given too many great big signals

that it's going to be the month that

Bitcoin then pushes to a new Fresh

all-time high just based on what we can

see here however it doesn't seem like

the market is over and that this is a

good 6 months to sell in May and go away

just based on what we have seen in the

years that are not bare Market years and

essentially with the the price where

it's at with the rejection and the

potential consolidation lasting

potentially to 3 five months from the

peak of March that would suggest that

the period in the second half of the

year is probably going to be higher than

where it currently is right now so if

May opens it 62 or

63,000 what the data has suggested is

that we're probably going to be higher

than that come October when the rule

says to buy back for the Halloween

effect of course I could be wrong I'm

just running off the data here I'm not

willing to sell it all up and then come

back in

October the call is entirely up to you

even if we were to see a pullback that

to me would be the signal to be buying

up that dip and then running this thing

later into 24 for and potentially

hopefully into 2025 like And subscribe

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cheers again guys I'll see you the next

one take care and peace out