Bitcoin [BTC]: Crypto's Final Move. Time Is Running Out.

Summary

The video discusses crypto market patterns and trends, emphasizing the similarity in behavior across different market cycles. It reviews short-term and long-term trends, the macro cycle, and past market behaviors to predict future movements. The presenter analyzes market data, including the long-short ratio and liquidations, and discusses the impact of the US dollar on crypto assets. The video also covers the Elliot wave cycle and investor sentiment, suggesting we may be in the early stages of the final bullish wave before a significant bear market.

Takeaways

• 📈 Crypto markets tend to exhibit similar behavior across different cycles, with price magnitudes varying but human behavior remaining consistent, leading to repeating patterns.
• 📊 The presenter is not a financial advisor and emphasizes the importance of personal research and due diligence, reminding viewers that past performance is not indicative of future results.
• 💰 Market data such as the long-short ratio and liquidations are tracked to identify potential market tops or bottoms, with significant liquidations potentially signaling turning points.
• 🔄 An imbalance in the long-short ratio is observed, with longs at 51.2% and shorts at 48.7%, indicating a possible market consolidation area around $56,000 to $57,000.
• 📊 The 24-hour trading volume has seen a significant increase, which is generally a positive sign for market movement, but excessive volume could indicate temporary turning points.
• 📉 The US dollar's performance is inversely related to crypto assets, and its potential breakdown could be positive for assets priced in dollars, including cryptocurrencies.
• 📊 Bitcoin's price action on the 1-hour and 4-hour time frames shows an uptrend, with resistance levels and pivot points being key areas to watch for trend continuation or reversal.
• 🔄 The daily time frame for Bitcoin indicates a recovery, with the market breaking back into the strong territory of a correction range, suggesting a potential upturn in the weekly trend.
• 🌐 The macro market structure suggests that the current cycle may be in the early stages of the fifth and final leg of the bull market, which could be characterized by an extension rather than the typical third wave being the strongest.
• 🔮 Historical market cycles show a pattern of five-wave substructures, with the fifth wave potentially being the longest and strongest at the end of a macroeconomic cycle.
• 📚 The video offers a recap of previous bull market cycles to understand market behavior, suggesting that similar patterns of greed and fear are likely to recur in the current cycle.

Q & A

What is the main similarity in behavior across different market cycles in the cryptocurrency market?

The main similarity is that while the price and magnitude may vary, the behavior of people in the market tends to be much the same, leading to repeating patterns and market structures.

What is the significance of the long short ratio in market analysis?

The long short ratio is significant as it indicates the balance between long and short positions in the market. A balanced 50/50 ratio can be a signal for a potential market top or bottom, depending on who has been liquidated.

Why is the liquidation of long positions important to note in the market?

The liquidation of long positions, especially in large amounts, can indicate a turning point in the market. For instance, the liquidation of almost $1 billion in long positions can lead to a market reversal.

What does an imbalance in the long short ratio suggest about the market?

An imbalance in the long short ratio suggests that one side of the market is more dominant than the other. The market may be more likely to move in the direction of the dominant side until the ratio balances out.

What is the role of the 24-hour trading volume in market analysis?

The 24-hour trading volume is important as it indicates the liquidity and activity level of the market. A significant increase in volume can be a positive sign, especially when the market is breaking away from a certain price point.

How does the performance of the US dollar impact the cryptocurrency market?

The performance of the US dollar can have an inverse relationship with the cryptocurrency market. When the US dollar falls, it can be positive for assets priced in dollars, including cryptocurrencies, as it may lead to an increase in their value.

What is the significance of the US dollar's divergence from its previous peak in the context of Bitcoin?

The divergence indicates that while the US dollar is reaching lower highs, Bitcoin is reaching bottoms, suggesting an inverse relationship between the two. This can be a sign of potential market movements.

What does the speaker mean by 'trading with the trend' in the context of the cryptocurrency market?

'Trading with the trend' means following the direction of the market's movement, whether it's up or down, and making trading decisions based on the prevailing trend to maximize profits and minimize risks.

What is the Elliot wave cycle and how does it relate to market behavior?

The Elliot wave cycle is a theory that suggests that markets move in a series of five waves, with three waves in the direction of the trend and two against it. It helps in understanding market behavior by identifying patterns and potential turning points.

How does the speaker anticipate the fifth wave of the current cryptocurrency cycle to differ from previous cycles?

The speaker anticipates that the fifth wave will have an extension, making it the longest and strongest wave of the cycle, as opposed to the third wave being the most significant in previous cycles. This is due to the market nearing the end of a major macroeconomic cycle.

What does the speaker suggest will happen when the market reaches all-time high prices again?

The speaker suggests that when the market reaches all-time high prices again, those who bought in at the peak of wave three and held through the correction will become very vocal, potentially doubling down on their positions, leading to a peak amount of greed and over-leveraging in the market.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Market Behavior and Cycle Analysis

The video script discusses the consistent patterns in cryptocurrency market behavior across different cycles. It emphasizes the importance of understanding these patterns for predicting future market movements. The speaker reviews short-term and long-term trends, as well as macro cycles, highlighting how past behaviors can inform future expectations. Key metrics such as the long-short ratio and liquidations are analyzed to identify market tops or bottoms. The script also touches on the importance of doing one's own research and not relying solely on past performance for future predictions.

05:01

📊 Analyzing Market Indicators and Trends

This paragraph delves into specific market data tracking, including the long-short ratio and liquidations, to gauge market sentiment and potential turning points. The speaker notes the significance of the ratio balancing out and the impact of liquidations on market direction. The US dollar's role in influencing asset prices, including Bitcoin, is examined, with attention to potential short-term and long-term trends. The script also discusses the importance of trading with the trend and using various time frames to understand market dynamics, with a focus on the current bullish setup in the market.

10:02

🌐 Macro Market Structure and Elliot Wave Theory

The speaker explores the macro market structure through the lens of Elliot wave theory, suggesting that the market may be entering the fifth and final leg of the current bull market cycle. This paragraph discusses the potential for an extended wave five, which is typically the longest and strongest in commodity cycles. The script provides a historical perspective by comparing the current cycle with previous ones, noting the commonality of market participants' behavior at various stages. The speaker anticipates a bullish fifth wave driven by market participants who held through the recent correction, setting the stage for a potential peak in greed and over-leveraging as the cycle nears its end.

Keywords

💡Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency refers to digital or virtual currencies that use cryptography for security and operate independently of a central bank. In the video, the term is central to the discussion, as the speaker analyzes market behavior and trends related to cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin.

💡Market Cycle

A market cycle is a series of stages that a market goes through, typically from a period of growth to a period of decline, and then back to growth again. The video discusses how cryptocurrency behaves similarly in every market cycle, with patterns that can be identified and analyzed for future predictions.

💡Elliot Wave Cycle

The Elliot Wave Cycle is a technical analysis theory that suggests market prices move in specific patterns, often referred to as 'waves,' which can be identified and used to predict future market movements. The video references this theory to discuss the macro market structure and investor behavior.

💡Liquidations

In the context of trading, liquidations refer to the forced closure of a position when the market moves against the trader, depleting their margin. The script mentions liquidations as a market signal, indicating a potential turning point after significant long positions were liquidated.

💡Long Short Ratio

The long short ratio is a measure of the relative number of long positions to short positions in a market. The video discusses the significance of this ratio in predicting market movements, noting an imbalance that suggests market sentiment and potential consolidation areas.

💡Market Consolidation

Market consolidation refers to a period where the price of an asset moves within a certain range, typically following a significant price movement. The script identifies a price zone for potential market consolidation, which is an area of stability before the next market movement.

💡Fear and Greed

Fear and greed are emotional responses that can significantly impact market behavior. In the video, the speaker discusses how these emotions lead to repeating patterns in the market, with investors often buying in at peak greed and selling out of fear.

💡Macro Cycle

A macro cycle refers to a long-term trend or pattern in the market that can span several years. The video suggests that the cryptocurrency market is in the final stages of a macro cycle, which could lead to a significant bear market.

💡Pivot Points

Pivot points are levels of support or resistance in technical analysis that can indicate potential turning points in the market. The script uses pivot points to discuss short-term and intermediate resistance levels for Bitcoin's price.

💡Trend Confluence

Trend confluence refers to a situation where multiple trend lines converge, indicating a potential change in market direction. The video mentions a trend confluence table and indicator, which provides trading signals based on the alignment of various trend lines.

💡Leverage

Leverage in trading refers to using borrowed capital to increase the potential return of an investment. The video warns of the dangers of over-leveraging, particularly at the peak of the market cycle, which can lead to significant losses if the market turns against the investor.

Highlights

Crypto markets exhibit similar behavior across different cycles, with price magnitude varying.

The video reviews short-term and higher time frame trends, as well as macro cycles and historical behavior patterns.

A disclaimer is given that the presenter is not a financial advisor, urging viewers to conduct their own research.

Market data such as the long-short ratio and liquidations are tracked to identify market tops or bottoms.

A significant liquidation of long positions can indicate a market turning point.

An imbalance in the long-short ratio is observed, with longs at 51.2% and shorts at 48.7%.

A 50/50 long-short ratio is anticipated as a potential market consolidation signal.

24-hour trading volume has increased significantly, indicating market activity.

The US dollar's short-term support is analyzed, with implications for asset pricing in dollars.

Divergence between the US dollar and Bitcoin is observed, suggesting an inverse relationship.

A potential breakdown in the US dollar is anticipated, which could positively impact assets priced in dollars.

Bitcoin's 1-hour time frame shows clear uptrends, with pivot points indicating short-term resistance.

The daily time frame indicates a break above 50% of the correction range, suggesting market strength.

The weekly trend has turned positive, breaking away from a downtrend, aligning with the monthly trend which has remained up.

Elliot wave cycle patterns are discussed, with a focus on the potential end of a macro correction and the start of the final leg of the bull market.

Historical market cycles are analyzed to understand typical market behavior at different stages.

The potential for an extended wave five in the current cycle is predicted, differing from typical Elliot wave patterns.

The video concludes with an invitation to join the TI Crypto community for further insights and trading strategies.

Transcripts

[Music]

crypto behaves very similarly in every

Market cycle the price and magnitude

does vary but how people behave is much

the same which leads to repeating

patterns and Market structure so in this

video here we will be reviewing the

shortterm and higher time frame Trends

as well as the macro cycle and how

people have behaved in those previous

Cycles to potentially give us a lead

into what is coming next before we dive

into the charts please remember that I'm

not a financial advisor so always do

your own due diligence and research and

past results are not indicative of

future performance okay before we dive

into the macro Market structure the

Elliot wave cycle and how people

typically behave we'll first take a look

at some of the market data that I do

track for you guys starting out with the

long short ratio and also the

liquidations so what we're looking at

here is the fact that we've not seen a

huge amount of shorts being liquidated

which is typically a good signal to

suggest a top or bottom is in the market

depending who's been getting wrecked now

like I pointed out for you guys a couple

of weeks ago we had almost $1 billion of

long being liquidated which can

typically lead to a turning point in the

market and that's what we've seen so far

and also if you do recall a few days

after that we saw almost a qu billion

dollars of Longs getting wrecked again

on a weekend session which is important

to note and of course the prices

continue to move away from that point

forward now what we're also starting to

see is a little bit of an imbalance in

the long short ratio Longs at around

51.2 4% long and around 48.7 6% short

now what I'm looking out for with this

ratio here is to see when it balances

out to a 50/50 ratio and then where the

price is sitting if you do recall from

last week as well we're looking at this

starting to stabilize the 50/50 ratio of

Longs versus shorts at around a price of

56 to $57,000 and that price zone is the

consolidation area that we're looking

out for to be that next stair step in

the market away from the bottom now at

the time it's unclear whether it's

accumulation or distribution but because

of the other factors at play to do with

the liquidations and also the fear

reentering the market it gave us a bit

of a lead to suggest that the market was

more likely going to be heading up from

that point forward so what I'm tracking

now with this long short ratio is for

this to come back to 5050 at least for a

few days as well and then to see where

price is sitting to give us that next

block of consolidation now what we're

also looking at here is the 24-hour

volume up around 56% a huge increase

which is a good thing as the market is

breaking away we just don't want to be

seeing excessive levels of volume which

can lead to at least some temporary

turning points in the market so of

course we're going to come back to the L

short ratio as well now for a quick look

at the US dollar before we jump into

Bitcoin and the macro cycle what we're

looking at here with the US dollar is

that we are seeing some short-term

support right around 1032 a little bit

above I have added this orange dotted

line which is an intermediate support

Zone which is just above the 50% level

from the peak on the 1st of May down to

the trough on the 28th of December there

so this is an inverse chart to what

we're looking at with assets price in

dollars if you do recall we had the

correction low in Bitcoin the first

correction from the alltime height down

into the 1st of May and that's lined up

with a peak in this chart here now what

we're looking at is in the US doar from

that point forward is the fact that

we've had a bit of Divergence here we've

had a lower high in the US dollar

peaking on the 28th of June if we have a

look at our Bitcoin chart here on the

daily time frame we saw a bottom on the

4th of July we also had a bottom on the

24th of July so while we're getting tops

in the US dollar we're getting Bottoms

in Bitcoin it's not going to line up

exact day for day but we are getting

that broader Trend in the market where

we see those inverse relationships so we

saw the US dollar start to fall and we

also did continue to see Bitcoin to fall

for a short period of time but because

the US dollar was also falling I do

believe it softened the blow at least a

little bit but what I'm looking out for

now in the US dollar is for a bigger

breakdown which would be very positive

for assets priced in dollars including

of course crypto and Bitcoin so we are

going to look out for a continuation

from this point forward but there may be

one more retest of that 105 level before

getting that breakdown so in terms of

some short-term plays perhaps we do see

price stabilized from here on the US

dollar and maybe a little bit of a test

higher which could also lead to the

price pausing in cryptocurrency and of

course Bitcoin as well as we have been

seeing a very nice strong Trend to the

upside now it doesn't it has to happen

it's just something I'm looking out for

to potentially slow down this little bit

of a pump up we've seen right now is

going to be one to watch but again I

don't think it's going to be the end of

this move up by any stretch it is just

something I'm tracking which would be a

little bit of a lead on those lower term

time frame Trends but in terms of the

bigger picture everything is lining up

here still for the US dollar to have a

larger breakdown which I've been

tracking now for around 18 months up now

to bitcoin on the 1hour time frame where

those lower term Trends are clearly up

there's green across the board on the

Tia G swing indicator so it is just a

matter of now following the trends up

until we start to see some breakdowns

and some Trend changes and the trend

Confluence start to break down which

we're not seeing yet so this is super

easy analysis just keep going with the

trend now these yellow lines are some

short-term pivot Points I'm tracking and

as you've seen over the recent session

we have seen some resistance around that

Pivot Point we've of course Broken

through with a continuation of the trend

and now we're just getting some

short-term resistance over the last

around hour and a half or so at that

next pivot point now if we do continue

up from here there are a couple of pivot

Points at around 66,000 to $665,000 just

in terms of some short-term levels but

again if the trends just continue up

from that point forward you just have to

keep going with those Trends it's very

simple stuff now in terms of

invalidation levels a little shortterm

area of invalidation of this uptrend

would be breaking back beneath this

previous Pivot Point at around $63,000

if we do see a breakdown from there and

some closes and lower highs we've

perhaps seen an intermediate top which

may hold for around 24 to 48 hours but

we're not there yet we are still

trending higher up now to the 4H hour

chart where we can clearly see we've

broken up to that next area of

resistance being around $65,000 a little

bit below you can't see it because

that's where my resistance card is at

the moment here but if you look left on

the chart you can see this orange line

coming in at around 65k which is an

intermediate level to be looking at for

some kind of resistance coming in and

this also lines up with a pivot point on

the hourly time frame so we are seeing

some short-term resistance but of course

it wouldn't take much for these Trends

to continue up to push us to that next

pivot point which comes in at around 666

on our 4H hour time frame you can

clearly see our Trends are up on our 4H

Hour 1 bar two bar and daily time frames

now if you are wondering about the trend

Confluence table and this white overlay

which gives me basically all of my

trading signals I'll leave a video at

the end of this video which goes through

how this indicator does work so stay

tuned for that but in terms of what

we're looking out for now on the 4H hour

chart it's much the same as the 1H hour

chart in terms of those pivot Points and

breakout zones up now to the Daily time

frame where we've just broken above 50%

from the entire correction range now

we've just seen the worst correction in

the bull market so far in terms of price

time and magnitude at - 27% from its

peak and this level here is the halfway

point from the peak down to the

correction low and what we're seeing now

is that the Market's broken back into

the strong territory of this tool here

just to keep it super simple in the top

half of this tool the Market's

relatively strong and in the bottom half

of the tool the Market's relatively weak

and it's great to see some price action

back in the strong half we just now want

to be seeing some closes and higher lows

which will likely be the signal to get

that Weekly Trend turning back up now in

the recent session we've also broken

away from that Weekly downtrend this was

red yesterday it's no longer red meaning

that Weekly downtrend is over our weekly

2ar trend is still down but this is of

course a step in the right direction to

break that two we down trend so things

are pointing in the right direction of

course with all those lower term time

frame Trends pointing up and we're also

starting to break some of those weekly

downtrends this weekly tuar trend is the

next one to break and our monthly trend

has remained up through this entire time

which is why it's just so important to

always trade with the trend know what

time frames you are tracking in the

market and of course it just can really

simplify things so since the bull market

got going and our monthly Trend turned

back up it has just been up through this

entire time so it really helps clear a

lot of the noise and hold in for those

major Trends now not too much more to

add here on the one Monday chart but if

you do want some early leads that maybe

we're seeing at least a shortterm top

look out for a break back beneath the

50% level and some close and low highs

because it would be suggesting the trend

is going to slow down a little bit which

may also line up with the US dollar

coming back to retest some levels if

that's what we're going to be seeing

over the next few days but all things

considered Trends are very strong we are

breaking significant levels let's just

see where the dust does settle including

where the long short ratio also does

start to balance out as well now we can

take a look at some of those macro time

frames with the weekly chart we are back

on top of that previous high before the

high from the previous cycle so it's a

bullish place to be we're yet to get

back to the previous cycle top coming in

at around $68,000 so that's the next

hurdle overhead to be getting on top of

but provider we can start to see some

weekly closes and higher lows above 60k

things are looking very good for this

macro cycle which gets me to this chart

here where we've been hunting for the

end of the correction and this final leg

up in the bull market now apart from one

little change of plan where we've been

looking at the correction since this

wave three top came about which we got

very close to on the channel so I hope

all of you guys were following along

since then what we've been looking out

for since then is the end of a macro

correction to get this Fifth and final

leg going in the bull market which will

likely lead to one of the worst bare

markets crypto has ever seen before

because we're getting to the end of a

major cycle which I won't be getting to

in this video but perhaps in an upcoming

video so stay tuned for that but now

that we're seeing signs that Wave 4 has

come to an end it does mean we're in the

very early stages of this Fifth and

final leg which will likely be broken up

into a five-wave substructure which

would mean we're now in Wave 1 which

means there's two other decent

corrections to come about before getting

to the end of the cycle but but of

course that's just using some typical

Market structure which is what the

markets typically do but nobody knows

nobody has a crystal ball and knows

definitively but we can look back to

previous Cycles to get a bit of an

insight into how people behave at

different stages so because of where

we're at in the cycle I wanted to do a

quick recap on the previous bull market

Cycles so we can see how the market did

behave in each stage so going back to

cycle two which I've called the early

adopter cycle I'm going to go through

this at pretty rapid Pace but the main

thing I want you guys to pay attention

to is just how the markets typically

break down into five-wave subst

structures which is what Elliot wave is

all about there's three waves with the

trend and two waves against the trend

and I've broken them down here with

different colors to color code the

substructures within the macro Trends

the yellow being the major Trend there

now what we've seen so far is that we've

been through four waves in the market if

my current wave count is accurate and so

far it's been looking pretty good which

would mean we have the fifth and final

leg to come but the difference between

previous cycles and where we are now is

that coming to the end of a

macroeconomic cycle what I'm expecting

is that wave five is going to have an

extension in this market as opposed to

wave three being the longest and

strongest wave which is typically what

we do see in Elliot wave so you can see

from cycle 2 and also cycle 3 wave three

was the longest and strongest but

because we are coming to the end of a

macro cycle I'm anticipating wave five

is going to be the longest and strongest

because that's also something that

happens in commodity Cycles as well and

you can go back and study previous

commodity Cycles to see how the fifth

wave is typically the longest and

strongest but in terms of Market

structure we get the same fear and greed

happening at each stage of the cycle and

even in the sub structures where people

get greedy at the same times and fearful

at the same times and I think that's

what we've just come through at the end

of wave four where a lot of people who

bought in at the peak of wave three when

there was a massive amount of greed took

place they didn't sell in this

correction despite showing some loss on

their position which really sets the

market up for a bullish fifth wave

because anybody who's held on through

this period here are going to feel like

Geniuses when the market takes off again

leading to the most likely doubling down

into the later stage we can see the same

thing take place in cycle 3 which I've

called the Main Street awareness cycle I

have made previous videos explaining the

naming of the cycles and what I believe

was taking place at each stage of the

cycle so I do go back and look at my

macro analysis playlist for that there

but in terms of what we're looking at

here in the current cycle compared to

previous cycles and how people behave I

do believe most people who are buying in

the peak greed in wave three held

through most of this period here and

then really started to double down on

the positions into the end of the cycle

which is what leads to that Allin nature

people getting themselves wrecked with

leverage and undoing the time that they

held those positions through one of the

most tricky times in the cycle at that

point and then ended up Holding On

Through the bare Market suffering

significant losses and then Panic

selling towards the end so I do think

we're seeing the same thing take place

now with a peak amount of greed in wave

three and most people still holding on

to their positions throughout this

correction which would mean if when we

get back into all-time high prices

everybody who's gone quiet that bought

this peak is going to become very loud

again saying how smart they were

thinking that they've got the markets

all worked out and they're going to buy

in more and more on the way up which

will likely lead to a peak amount of

greed and over leverage in the market

which which gets us to the top of the

cycle so again like I said earlier

nobody has a crystal ball but in terms

of Market behavior and Market

participants it is looking like this is

going to be playing out once again but

we will get signs that the market will

give us if this is breaking down and

things have changed which of course I'll

share with you guys on the channel if

and when the time comes so in terms of

how I'm seeing the market on the lower

term and higher time frame Trends as

well as the macro cycle and how I think

this is going to be playing out once

again that's what I've got for you in

today's market update if you want more

from us in TI crypto where we share how

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that's it for me today I hope you've

learned something in this video wishing

you more health wealth and happiness and

until next time I'll catch you then

[Music]