#Bitcoin Melting Faces & Pushing Far Higher
Summary
TLDRThe speaker discusses the current state of the cryptocurrency market, highlighting the unprecedented influx of capital and scarcity in the market. They mention Bitcoin's market cap surpassing silver and the prediction of it reaching $100,000. The importance of holding Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation is emphasized, and the potential for a banking crisis with the repayment of B TFP loans is discussed. The speaker also touches on the growth of Bitcoin in relation to other asset classes and the increasing interest from institutional investors.
Takeaways
- 📈 The cryptocurrency market is experiencing an unprecedented influx of capital amid unparalleled scarcity, potentially leading to a remarkable economic experiment in human history.
- 💹 Cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin, is seeing a significant increase in market cap and trading volume, with Bitcoin surpassing silver's market cap.
- 🔄 There is a notable shift in investment strategies, with traditional investors ('Boomers') beginning to enter the Bitcoin market following advice from investment advisors.
- 🚀 Optimism for Bitcoin's future is high, with predictions of it surpassing $100,000 and even reaching $200 trillion in market cap, challenging other asset classes like gold and risk assets.
- 🌐 Political considerations are influencing the crypto market, with public figures and policies affecting investor sentiment and market direction.
- 💰 The demand for Bitcoin is increasing, with even small miners receiving calls for Bitcoin and market makers scrambling for supply.
- 📊 Data analysis and models suggest a strong upward trend for Bitcoin, with predictions of reaching new all-time highs in the short term.
- 🛠️ Technical analysis, such as the Lila model and options trading data, indicate a bullish market with resistance levels and potential price targets.
- 🌪️ The fear and greed index is at 82, suggesting a cautious optimism in the market, though concerns arise when the index reaches the '90s.
- 🔋 Long-term holders of Bitcoin are not selling despite high profit levels, indicating a belief in further price increases and a scarcity of supply.
- 💸 The banking sector faces a potential repayment crisis with the need to return funds borrowed from the Federal Reserve's emergency lending facilities, which could impact the financial market and Bitcoin's role as a safe haven.
Q & A
What is the current market cap of the cryptocurrency market?
-The current market cap of the cryptocurrency market is 2.71 trillion dollars.
What is the significance of Bitcoin surpassing the market cap of silver?
-Bitcoin surpassing the market cap of silver, which has been in existence for over 5,000 years, is a significant milestone. It indicates the growing acceptance and value of Bitcoin as an asset class and its potential to disrupt traditional financial systems.
What does the speaker mean by 'pushing higher' in the context of the cryptocurrency market?
-The speaker is referring to the expectation that the value of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, will continue to increase significantly. This is based on the unprecedented amount of capital entering the market and the scarcity of the asset.
What is the speaker's prediction for Bitcoin's price by April 18th, 2024?
-The speaker predicts that Bitcoin's price could reach $105,000 by April 18th, 2024, based on the current growth rate and historical price cycles.
What is the significance of the term 'Fiat' in the context of this script?
-In this context, 'Fiat' refers to government-issued currency that is not backed by a physical commodity like gold or silver. The speaker suggests that Bitcoin offers an escape from the traditional financial system, which is based on Fiat currency.
What is the speaker's view on the role of Bitcoin in the current economic system?
-The speaker views Bitcoin as a lifeboat out of a system designed to collapse, referring to the traditional financial system based on Fiat currency. Bitcoin is seen as a hedge against the potential failure of this system.
What is the significance of the term 'HODL' in the script?
-HODL is a term used in the cryptocurrency community to encourage holding onto one's Bitcoin rather than selling it. The speaker uses this term to advise viewers to not take profits too early and to hold onto their Bitcoin for potential future gains.
What does the speaker suggest about the future of Bitcoin in relation to other asset classes?
-The speaker suggests that Bitcoin will increasingly eat into other asset classes, including gold and risk assets like the S&P 500, as it continues to grow in value and acceptance. This is due to its increasing scarcity and the influx of capital into the cryptocurrency market.
What is the significance of the term 'shorts' in the context of the script?
-In this context, 'shorts' refers to investors who are betting against the price of Bitcoin, expecting it to decrease. The speaker suggests that these investors will face losses as the price of Bitcoin continues to rise.
What is the speaker's view on the potential impact of a banking crisis on Bitcoin?
-The speaker believes that a banking crisis could actually lead to an increase in the value of Bitcoin. This is because Bitcoin is seen as a 'life raft' or safe haven asset during times of financial instability, as it was during the global financial crisis in 2023.
What does the speaker suggest about the state of Bitcoin mining?
-The speaker suggests that Bitcoin mining is currently weak due to high electricity costs and the current price of Bitcoin. Older mining rigs, in particular, are struggling to operate efficiently, and miners may need to shut down their operations if the price of Bitcoin does not increase significantly.
Outlines
📌 Introduction and Market Overview
The speaker begins by greeting the audience and discussing the current state of the cryptocurrency market. They mention the unprecedented capital influx into a market experiencing scarcity, and the potential for this to be a remarkable economic experiment. The speaker also touches on the current market capitalization of Bitcoin and the trading volume, highlighting the growth and excitement in the crypto space. They express gratitude to their moderators and Patreon supporters, and discuss Bitcoin's recent market cap surpassing that of silver, emphasizing the significance of this milestone.
🚀 Bitcoin's Price Trajectory and Market Demand
The speaker delves into the specifics of Bitcoin's price movement, discussing the high demand and limited supply in the market. They share an anecdote about a broker's advice to sell Bitcoin at $71,000-$71,500, indicating the urgency and scramble for Bitcoin among market makers. The speaker introduces a new volume analysis model predicting a significant increase in Bitcoin's price, driven by the influx of capital and the diminishing liquidity. They also discuss the behavior of different types of investors, such as scalpers and long-term holders, and how this affects the market dynamics.
💡 Bitcoin's Future and Political Implications
The speaker shares optimistic predictions about Bitcoin's future, citing a potential 200x increase in value. They discuss the political landscape and how certain candidates' stances on Bitcoin could affect its growth. The speaker emphasizes the importance of voting for pro-crypto politicians, especially in light of the potential threat from anti-crypto politicians. They also mention the entry of 'Boomer' money into the Bitcoin market, indicating a shift in the investor demographic and the growing mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin.
📈 Bitcoin's Impact on Traditional Asset Classes
The speaker explores how Bitcoin is disrupting traditional asset classes, with a focus on how it is drawing capital away from gold and risk assets like the S&P 500. They discuss the strategies of companies like MicroStrategy, which has seen its market cap skyrocket due to its Bitcoin investments. The speaker also talks about the potential for Bitcoin to 'eat into' other asset classes, leading to a significant shift in the global financial landscape. They highlight the importance of not selling Bitcoin too early and letting profits ride, given the asset's strong growth trajectory.
💸 Banking Crisis and Bitcoin's Role
The speaker addresses the looming banking crisis due to the repayment of loans from the Federal Reserve's emergency lending program. They predict that this crisis could lead to a surge in Bitcoin's price, as it has historically performed well during times of financial instability. The speaker also discusses the challenges faced by Bitcoin miners due to high electricity costs and the potential for a significant number of them to shut down if prices do not rise above a certain threshold. They conclude by discussing the ongoing short squeezes in the market and the importance of understanding market dynamics when trading Bitcoin.
📊 Analyzing Bitcoin's Growth and Market Indicators
The speaker presents various models and charts to analyze Bitcoin's growth and market indicators. They discuss the behavior of long-term holders, the Lila model predicting price resistance levels, and options analysis indicating heavy call options at $100,000. The speaker also examines Bitcoin's 4-year compound annual growth rate chart, suggesting that diminishing returns may no longer be a concern for Bitcoin investors. They conclude with a call to action for viewers to stay informed and engaged with the market, emphasizing the value of data-driven insights over speculation.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡Market Cap
💡ETFs
💡Scarcity
💡Fear and Greed Index
💡Cryptocurrency
💡Volume
💡Halving
💡Inflation
💡Short Selling
Highlights
The unprecedented amount of capital entering a market with unparalleled scarcity is a remarkable economic experiment in human history.
Crypto market capitalization reached 2.71 trillion, with a volume of 160 billion dollars.
Bitcoin has surpassed silver in market cap, a significant milestone considering silver's 5,000-year history.
Kathy Wood of ARK Invest has revised her Bitcoin target, predicting it will surpass $1 million well before 2030.
Bitcoin is being seen as a lifeboat out of a collapsing fiat system.
The market is experiencing a scramble for Bitcoin, with even small miners receiving calls from OTC desks looking for the asset.
Bitcoin's price discovery is in full swing, with new all-time highs being set frequently.
A simple model based on daily growth rates suggests Bitcoin could reach $105,000 by the end of March 2024.
Long-term holders are not selling, indicating a strong belief in Bitcoin's future and a limited supply.
MicroStrategy's market cap has grown from $1.2 billion to nearly $30 billion due to its Bitcoin investments.
Boomer money is entering the Bitcoin market, with investment advisors recommending their clients to invest.
The London Stock Exchange is accepting applications for Bitcoin ETNs, though they are currently only available for professional investors.
Bitcoin miners are facing challenges due to high electricity costs and the need for efficient mining operations.
There is a potential repayment crisis for banks due to the large amount of debt coming due in April.
Bitcoin tends to rise during crises, as seen in the last banking crisis, serving as a safe haven asset.
Short interest in Bitcoin continues to build, setting the stage for more short squeezes and price increases.
The Bitcoin 4-year CAGR chart suggests a strong growth rate and the potential for diminishing returns to become a thing of the past.
Transcripts
hello everybody thank you all for coming
it's Monday it's my second time here on
the internet we had DCA this morning
which is a good show but there's still
so much to talk about I was thinking of
names for this video and I want to just
call it wow or melting faces or whatever
but it's bizarre because it's almost too
predictable what's happening right now
so we'll try keep it down and again
share more data got a new model which
might terrify some but again I like to
try find ways of backing into exactly
what's going on and again for the first
time in history we are seeing an
unprecedented amount of capital entering
into a market with unparalleled scarcity
okay that's the story that's been the
thesis since 2017 but now it's really
playing out and this could be the most
remarkable
economic experiment ever in the history
of mankind and we are the beneficiaries
because we are in early so well done
everybody happy Monday crypto is now
2.71
trillion the volume 160 $60 billion
dollar and
that's that's a Sunday Sunday today's
Monday but the day do not end for today
yesterday we did 160 billion and I say
weekends is when it pumps and it did
just that exactly why that's happening
fear and greed is 82 which is fine when
it starts getting into the '90s you get
a little bit concerned but now we're
going to talk about pushing higher and
again thank you as well to the mods in
the chat I see you all there and
everybody for coming and make sure I
didn't miss anybody
dfia Paul Freel IMA Shelly and everybody
else this far back as I can read so
let's jump in and thank you all for
coming thank you as well to everybody in
patreon as well we have a new one here
from the team may read this Nomad 247
says your patreon is choca block full of
data and worth every penny thanks Nomad
yes I'm very active in patreon I thought
about doing a survey of am I posting too
much and then I said
well you can always mute it if it's too
much but there's just so much to share
right now it's a crazy time and of
course this is the Bitcoin on playlist
everybody uh for those who just want
Bitcoin on content now you have it and
these are very popular having clock 37
days 37 days and guess what just
happened Bitcoin flipped
silver that is huge we said that would
happen this year it's just happening a
little bit earlier than expected market
cap of silver $ 1. 386 trillion and Sil
Silver's been around for 5,000 years
like gold maybe even longer and uh you
can see gold just smoked it and next in
the box is Google to be slayed
rightfully
so they need to fix their AI anyhow
let's talk about some more both exciting
and almost terrifying news so Kathy Wood
had a $1 million Bitcoin Target for 2030
for the longest time he just revised
that
Target in what way well they're coming
out with a new model a new Bitcoin model
but now AR invest Cathy wood recently
declare that Bitcoin will surpass the
million dooll mark well before
2030 I'll repeat that well before
2030 and that was her old timeline she
said the ETFs have changed everything
again we are seeing unprecedented money
flow into this
asset and there is nothing in the
cupboard the cupboard is bare however
that Nursery real goes I don't even
remember but you know what I'm talking
about let's talk about some other stuff
touching this this morning the escape
from Fiat from Gabor in case you missed
DCA but thank goodness for Bitcoin and
thank goodness I get the opportunity to
tell people about Bitcoin and create
things like whole coin is and stuff
Hello Piper thank you so much hope your
dad's doing better by the way but
bitcoin's second greatest achievement is
offering a Lifeboat out of a system
that's designed to collapse that is Fiat
ladies and gentlemen it will melt away
it's guaranteed only it's melting at a
more accelerated Pace uh so be careful
if you hold a big bag of Fiat and I know
people I even have good friends that are
sitting on massive amounts of Fiat for
years and years and years and doing
nothing with it sitting in a checking
account at a bank earning nothing
depleting by a massive amount uh and
this is the piece that I want to bring
your attention to this is from Fred
Kruger do Krueger on Twitter the it's
kind of a joke it's a meme joke but in
the old days this is is how it worked
the offer is
$71,000 $71,500 on 1,000 coins that's
the best I can do as your broker I
advise you to take it right now okay
there are so many bids bids or offers
for an asset asks or what people want to
get for it there's so much bid coming in
literally the market makers are
scrambling I think I covered it in
yesterday in the Q&A that that the
miners even tiny little obscure miners
are getting call from R random OTC
desks got any Bitcoin got any Bitcoin
we're getting really nervous here we
don't have any we need it literally
soon people will be able to sit there on
something like coinbase and place a
limit sell order at a massive number
it'll probably get filled but I advise
you it's too early to even think about
selling or think about taking profit
there's nothing but hardness on the
horizon and money flow is increasing
I'll also prove that in a minute right
now actually not even in a minute right
now as you know I analyze volumes I
analyze data I build models and I've got
a new volume analysis model this is just
back of the napkin cot I ran through the
machine so far this is before iBot was
even finished today and I reckon they at
least will get to 70 million of volume
that's 70 million multipli by
41.12956
whatever $3 billion of that a certain
percentage converts and I built a formul
around it that means the input into
Black Rock ibit Trust alone today will
be
$59.25 per normally to the downside by
the way so it's actually higher that
means Black Rock need 8,000 Bitcoin
tonight they need 8,000
Bitcoin can be on the phone hey uh you
got 8,000 Bitcoin to sell me and it's
not just them it's everybody else and
and also when you analyze the uh ETF
flow news as well you'll see here very
carefully that the Fidelity volume is
higher than gbtc which is normally the
opposite case that means it's going to
be a low dumpage day for gbtc and a good
day for Fidelity the Fidelity buyers
convert at a much higher rate than the
ibit guys the ibit tend to scalp a lot
the Fidelity people kind of set it and
forget it money goes in buys Bitcoin
there's no scalping on Fidelity so
that's another interesting thing and
more good news let's look at some
rainbows here this is the rainbow chart
the power law all you need to know is we
are still very very early we typically
go up to the red and we're not even in
the green yet per the power law which I
am working on a Model that looks at an
amalgamation of power law history m metf
law metast law squared or kind of our
bullish metf version and uh we'll
compare them all together and see where
we come up with but that'll be fun but
either way it's crazy again crazy we
have diminishing liquid Supply and ever
increasing Demand on a daily
basis where do we go at the having
that's the question that's the question
I get from you all 100 times and people
say why why why you keep making these
price prediction model for the having is
because you ask for them and I do what
the audience wants everybody so the
question is what will the price be on
April 18th 2024 we don't know but we got
a pretty good idea first of all we hit
another new all-time high today we hit
72764 bucks it's 72,300 taking a little
little 300 400 Buck breather as we speak
but that's another new alltime high I'm
sick of even counting the new alltime
highs we are deep into price Discovery
right now and there'll come a time when
again they won't be able to find Bitcoin
for sale uh it's going to be fascinating
and I did make my prediction which
caused a lot of consternation as well I
did say mathematically if history
repeats we'll be at 999,000 in40 days
and that was 3 or 4 days ago the
question is can we get there let's have
a look I built another new model exactly
for this and
unfortunately if history repeats based
on my history I looked at from historic
Cycles this model is now wrong it's
actually too low the new model is even
higher but the new model only takes into
account what happened so far this year
okay the actual percentage return so far
this year on a daily basis very crude
and simple model but I'm always playing
around with numbers so the having Target
my original having Target is 99k the
price now at the time was
72764 the growth required to get to
99,000 is
36% okay that's considering where we've
come from so far from the bottom this
year we're up 84% the average growth of
Bitcoin per day is
1.2%
1.2% goes up a day there's some stocks
that don't do that in a year this is how
much Bitcoin goes up in a day we have 37
days left to the having given the
year-to-date rate of 1.2% that'll
increase the price by
44.4% which will take us to
$105,000 I know it sounds crazy
everybody by the way thank you for the
likes every time there's a like it I see
a little love heart pop up and thank you
C man and be mgee you're back good to
see you 105,000 it sounds
crazy but this is sandbagged okay and I
was called out on Twitter by this person
this is Florida so good from Glenn
Morris USA measuring from Bitcoin
from the March 7th liftoff of $44,500
using james' underlying assumptions we
get to
$124,000 at the're having and uh thank
you so much Mr hammer and I know I knew
this I didn't want to get too bullish or
get people too excited or give them fomo
that's not a good emotion to have but
Glenn Morris Florida is so good is
correct this model is technically
sandbagged I'm going back to this the
money flow is
increasing and the assets getting harder
and I'll show you as well in a minute
that the long-term holders aren't even
selling so it's
it's it's the most spectacular exciting
setup we've ever had in the history of
any asset on the planet so well done
everybody for being here um so thank you
for that now let's go a little bit
further as I shared this this morning in
DCA this is from
Thomas he believes there's a 200x in the
future of Bitcoin so again everybody
don't get queued in the markets you got
a little bit of Bitcoin you hold it you
hold it don't give it to anybody you
hold it it's only $1.3 trillion market
cap and Thomas believes it can go to
$200 trillion okay that'll smoke gold at
14 trillion but gold is already being
smoked by the Bitcoin ETFs they're
basically doing in 60 days what took
gold three years to get to that's how
fast this thing is moving and another
and I'm not political in any way but
there's a good thing here too is a
presidential candidate guy called Trump
he's been talking very favorably about
Bitcoin on the TV the whole time okay
and he would not take it away from
people okay that's good thing is he will
no longer threaten the Bitcoin world but
there is a side of the political
spectrum that is very anti- crypto Shad
out and I blocked some of the rudess on
this little meme but uh and I always say
the internet's very cruel I know when
you're public figure you're on the
receiving end of it but they are really
laying into Senator Warren hardt because
crypto does not like people who are
anti- crypto and this guy is playing a
clever card because there's at least 40
to 60 million people that are voters in
the US that own crypto if you threaten
to take it away You're toast your
political career is dead and I hope do
anybody here
Massachusetts I hope you know who Warren
is and I hope I you know how important
your vote is and I don't care if
somebody's left or right but if they're
anti- crypto I do care because it is the
life raft that we started this whole
story with that people need if you are
denied the life raft by somebody like
this you need to get them out of office
okay not political harsh words I know
but I'm get a bit passionate about that
stuff and in more happy news the Boomer
money is entering the fry Boomers
are now beginning to buy Bitcoin
because they they're being told by their
investment advisers the investment
advisers took 60 to 90 days to get
comfortable with this is it real is it
going to go up whatever now the
investment advisors are foming in to
bitcoin and they're telling the Boomers
with $95 trillion hey get a little bit
of this get a little bit of this
insurance just in case and after looking
at the performance it's crazy also the
world knows this this is the debt spiral
and this is from the government the CB
Congressional budget office CBO and they
normally sandbag like hell they don't
tell you the true story okay the debt
projection is going to the Moon if this
is a stock you would want to buy it but
if it's a
Fiat backed by debt you want to shed the
Fiat you want to ARB away from it as
quickly as you possibly can and that's
what other people are doing in the world
very cleverly and another great news too
as well shout out to everybody in the UK
we have a lot of followers here from the
UK I think it's my second biggest
audience on the planet but uh good sort
of good news the London Stock Exchange
is accepting apps for Bitcoin etns ex
exchange traded notes that's going to
happen as well real soon in April
probably now the sad thing is the etns
are only for professional investors
they're not for retail investors again
there's more exclusionary regime in the
world and I think it's awful uh you know
shielding retail investors from massive
gainers is Criminal hopefully the UK
will revise their way and put pressure
on whatever your local representative is
to fix that as well so the banks in the
UK will not
be as negative
towards retail getting into it now
speaking of
Investments and I know by the way there
and I know firsthand because we get the
receipts here we've created definitely
way over a, micr strategy millionaires
in the computer probably an awful lot
more because a lot of people know not to
talk about what's happening but
literally thousands of micr strategy
millionaires have been minted in the
last 12 months in this community so
really proud to everybody for listening
to me explaining how markets work and
not listening to the fud out there about
what micro strategy is in simple terms
it's a call option it's a leverage call
option on the future Bitcoin that's why
I went all in on the thing like a crazy
man but hey it really paid off now
Michael sailor came out today he's on
CNBC and he said it's going to basically
Bitcoin is going to eat gold and divert
capital from risk assets and ETFs like
the S&P 500 that's what the Spy is it's
the S&P 500 ETF he's now telling
people not only is it going to suck the
life out of gold but also one of the
biggest ETF the biggest ETF in the world
is the S&P 500 spy it's going to suck
that too and people are going to
diversify that whole 6040 portfolio I
spoke about 60% equities 40% bonds Bond
piece is gone so that 40% has has to
find a home and now the equity Market's
threatened by this it's crazy and this
goes back to the very beginning as well
you see everything in the story is
interrelated I think it was Thomas talks
about how Bitcoin could 200x because
it's going to eat into all the other
asset classes all of them the 900
trillion which is which will soon be a
quadrillion will be eaten into by
Bitcoin but there's
more micro strategy bought again they
borrowed they borrowed $800 million and
they found another $21.7 million and
they borrowed $800 million at 0.65%
until the year
2030 and they bought 12,000
Bitcoin that
T Black Rock are going to have to buy
8,000 today these guys bought 12,000
last week from the issuance of the
convertible note to getting the cash in
to buying it they did it in days because
Michael sailor knows you cannot wait you
can't sit there and say I'll do it next
week no problem no no no no no no no
because every day you wait the price
goes higher and it's killing people it's
killing the shorts and the people that
aren't on the train so bear that in mind
and Michael saor knows that better than
anybody and this is a beautiful little
chart of micro strategy market cap and
how it has benefited from Bitcoin from
the year 2001 to today okay we had the
huge Spike late 2020 I was in that trade
but but the trade now has gone even more
crazy and people don't understand how is
micro strategy nearly $30
billion the day they bought Bitcoin for
the first time in August 2019 or 2020 I
can't remember all the years of 2020 I
think it was I could August 2020 yes yes
it was CU I started the channel about
three months later on that exact trade
Madness but um see I'm getting all my
years confused that's how fast time is
going that's why there's such a sense of
urgency for everybody to get on the
train but literally the market cap of
micro strategy at the time was $1.2
billion now it's nearly 30 that's insane
today it went up another 200 bucks it's
Madness and because Michael sailor is
very ruthlessly competitive he wanted to
get back on top of Black Rock who will
be has to buy 8,000 Bitcoin today and
here you see how much Black Rock have
versus micro strategy and micro strategy
is
205,000 Black Rock is about 200,000
which will be 28,000 by the end of the
day if my math is correct we'll find out
tomorrow on the analysis too and the
reason I talk so so much about micro
strategy and have done for the last
three years is because for many of you
out there it was your only onramp
Bitcoin your only one you couldn't buy a
Bitcoin in your retirement accounts Etc
but you could buy a micro strategy and
that's what's minted so many
millionaires in the community and
Bitcoin Munger says micr is going to
$3,000 extrapolate that what he's
basically saying is Bitcoin is going to
double from here okay don't sell too
early not Financial advice
I know people have PTSD and they just
want to take profits oh I made so much
money I'm going to take a bit off the
table let it ride let your winners ride
okay very important now as I always say
too this btfp is going to cause a
problem this is a and and trust me it
does lead back to bitcoin I'll explain
in a second but there is this huge
repayment crisis that's going to happen
with the banks in the US and probably
similar structures in other countries
around the world banks have borrowed
from the B btfp have to pay I think it's
nearly $100 billion by the 4th of April
and that is a significant amount of
repayments in 3 weeks and this comes at
a time when finding liquidity is already
challenging the deposits in these banks
are non-existent and it highlights by
the difficulty NYCB faced basically
going almost to zero in a very short
wind of time how will they pay back this
hundred billion doar it's very
unlikely and this situation is
compounded by the fact that Banks cannot
simply default on these loans without
triggering cross default Clauses and a
big banking crisis making the situation
very precarious out there shout out to
Joe canori who has the reserve
constraint in this chart for the btfp
the Regional Community small commercial
medium-sized commercial Banks all depend
on it and they've got to repay 100
billion bucks in 3
weeks now people say oh that's going to
be a banking crisis and that's going to
kill bitcoin price but you know what
Bitcoin loves a crisis remember what
happened to the last banking crisis in
March of 2023 Bitcoin went up and people
realized as I started the story with
it's the life raft so for those who are
shorting Bitcoin because of the banking
crisis that's about to hit study
history Bitcoin goes up in a crisis it's
built for a crisis it was given birth to
because of the global financial crisis
and people still can't put that together
in their heads oh God and I try every
day but I can only get through to so
many people I've given up trying to
reach everybody now Bitcoin miners are
weak everybody's asking why are the
Bitcoin miners we what's going on well
this is a beautiful chart from blockware
Solutions and here it shows you focus
your eyes on the pink uh your average
electricity cost somewhere between 6 and
9 cents if you're in California you're
probably paying 30 cents a kilowatt hour
therefore there's no miners in
California but these are the shut off
prices compared to the Bitcoin price so
for example we are now at that pink
level for the s19 J Pro which used to be
state-of-the-art rig if your electricity
costs 9 cents I'll repeat this if your
electricity costs 9 cents you got to
turn off that state-of-the-art rig from
last year off because you can't mine
efficiently and effectively
so just just to explain it as well if
you have just 8 cents per kilowatt
electricity rate your s19 J Pro your
break even price of Bitcoin is 645 this
by the way this is after the having so
in 35 days 37 Days your s19 XP is 50,400
your S21 is
41,000 the
miners as I've been stressing with the
three types of rigs on the right hand
side are the ones that will make the
most after the having okay if the price
stays here at 70,000 half the miners are
going to hit the wall that's just a fact
that's what I've been saying for a long
time as well so that's why the miners
are weak because the market is worried
about the miners not making it
fortunately for them though the price is
above exactly that magical
$70,000 but if you have old Rigs and you
got 9 cents electricity you're going to
need a big bit coin price of
$270,000 with an
S9 okay think about that now uh the
shorts continue to short Bitcoin uh this
again from Bitcoin Munger the beatings
will continue till all the shorts go
broke and they keep coming in and they
keep doubling down trying to make back
the money that they've lost shorting
Bitcoin and they don't understand the
math behind it short starting to build
up again at
$73,000 we are 500 bucks from that level
600 bucks and therefore we will see more
squeezes this week Tick Tock and that's
the good thing actually because when
they get wrecked the ETFs get their bags
filled and the price goes up so I just
feel bad for the people that don't know
what they're doing but what are you
going to do let's look at three little
charts and then it's a wrap everybody
thank you so much for coming I don't
even know how many people are watching
we got 8,000 people watching live woohoo
you guys are hungry so let's look at
three charts real fast I'll let you go
first of all shout out to OCC on chain
college and uh basically this is the nle
uh what this basically talks about is
you can see bitcoin's most convicted
long-term holders they are still holding
even though they are holding at
unrealized profit levels that usually
occur you know we're we're we're occur
like at the cycle Peak this is happening
way before but the good news is they're
not selling so this this tells you two
things one again the supply is scarce
and two we have a lot higher to go
everybody do not take profits here I'm
I'm giving you all the data points that
tell you not to take profits in addition
let's look at the Lila model what I call
layer in layer out model what's
interesting about this coincidentally or
I don't know if it's a coincidence or
not but guess what is at
$105,000 that's level seven on the model
we are currently heading towards level
six 6 which is
76,000 typically at these levels there's
some resistance we could just blow
through it like we did with level six
probably will but there could be a
little stickiness at 76,000 if we do
blow through we're going straight to the
next level which should be
105,000 and what is familiar with that
number 105,000 let's go
back that's 105,000 and that 105,000
that I put together there was sandbagged
it could be 124 if you assume the
history since March and ignore the first
two months of the year so more exciting
stuff and in addition options analysis I
have to shout out to these DB but
options
Traders all year for the last year and a
half I've been sharing exactly where
they're playing month by month by month
they've been so spot on their target
however was too low for the having they
were all fooing into $70,000 strike
price
now they've moved them out to
$100,000 another point of Confluence the
highest bar is at$ 100,000 for these
options Traders heavy heavy loads 65% of
the contracts are call options which is
bullish and whatever there some people
with shorts that around 40,000 50,000
it's not going to happen not going to
get filled but that's okay a market
needs both players a market needs people
who don't know what they're doing with
people who know what they're doing
and The Winner Takes most like is the
Way of the World um so this is exciting
so this is the third or fourth point of
Confluence now with 100,000 by the
having the options positions final chart
as well shout out to JVS James V
Stratton I think he's on vacation right
now is interesting what this is is a
Bitcoin 4-year kager which is comound
annual growth rate chart and what's
interesting is he said alltime High by
having boom smash that beaten done
diminishing return cycle we'll see
pretty soon if that's going to happen
now what this chart represents is the
black line is the Bitcoin price and uh
the Gold Line is the fouryear compound
annual growth rate and the Gold Line
you'll notice as well is down the
question is will it go up will we break
records if that's the case that means
diminishing returns will be a thing of
the past and the most recent data points
in this chart show again a sharp
increase in kager way before the having
suggesting that the growth rate of
Bitcoin has been particularly strong and
we have a long way to go for the kager
as we go forward every more
excitement again using data
not
astrology actual numbers that prove the
point anyway the point is we're going
far higher ladies and gentlemen be safe
as there have a good time thank you for
the support hit the like And subscribe
to the Bitcoin only playlist if you like
this type of content no shell No Frill
just data every 60 seconds people always
ask what's KPM means knowledge per
minute my standard is to give you new
knowledge every 60 seconds thank you all
for coming thank you to the mods in the
chat thank you for every everybody who
came and I'll see you all tomorrow
bye-bye
[Music]
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