10 Overvalued Players You Must Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts (2024)

Summary

In this fantasy football analysis, the speaker identifies seven players to avoid in drafts due to their current Average Draft Position (ADP), including Devonte Adams and Stefon Diggs. The discussion covers concerns like team changes, age, injuries, and quarterback situations, suggesting that these factors could negatively impact the players' performances. The speaker emphasizes the importance of value in drafting and offers alternative options for a more strategic approach.

Takeaways

• 🏈 Devonte Adams is being drafted too early in fantasy football, with his current ADP being top 20 while the speaker ranks him 32nd overall.
• 😟 The Raiders' quarterback situation is a concern for Adams' fantasy value, with no significant improvement during the offseason.
• 👎 The addition of Brock Bowers, a tight end, could lead to more target competition for Adams, potentially decreasing his value.
• 😓 Austin Eckler's move to the Washington Commanders and his age might reduce his fantasy output, especially with a new mobile quarterback.
• 🚫 The Commanders' offensive strategy under Cliff Kingsberry might not favor Eckler, who is known for his receiving skills.
• 📉 Keenan Allen's change to the Chicago Bears and the presence of other strong receivers could decrease his target share and fantasy production.
• 🤔 The draft of a top wide receiver like Marvin Harrison Jr. could impact Trey McBride's target volume and touchdown opportunities with the Cardinals.
• ⚡ Stefon Diggs' age and the presence of other talented receivers on his new team might affect his fantasy performance negatively.
• 🔋 CJ Stroud's lack of rushing upside and the potential struggles of the Texans' offensive line could limit his fantasy quarterback value.
• ❌ T.J. Hockenson's recovery from a serious knee injury and the uncertainty at the quarterback position for the Minnesota Vikings make him a risky pick.

Q & A

Why does the speaker believe Devonte Adams should not be drafted as a top 20 player in fantasy football?

The speaker believes Devonte Adams should not be drafted as a top 20 player because he is ranked as the 32nd overall player on the fantasy blueprint, and drafting him as the 17th overall player, as is currently happening, could ruin an entire draft strategy due to the significant difference in ranking.

What was the main issue for Devonte Adams during the offseason according to the transcript?

The main issue for Devonte Adams during the offseason was that the Raiders did not improve their quarterback position and instead drafted Brock Bowers, a tight end, which increased target competition for Adams, potentially worsening his fantasy value.

What are the concerns regarding the Raiders' quarterback situation for Devonte Adams?

The concerns are that the Raiders' quarterback situation is not strong, with Aiden O'Connor, a second-year player who had a poor rookie year, and Garner Mchu, who ranks low in quarterback efficiency and has a history of interceptable passes.

How does Antonio Pierce's coaching philosophy impact Devonte Adams' potential fantasy performance?

Antonio Pierce's coaching philosophy favors running the ball in all situations, even when trailing, which could limit the pass rate and, consequently, the target opportunities for Devonte Adams, negatively impacting his fantasy performance.

Why does the speaker think Austin Ekeler is being drafted too early?

The speaker thinks Austin Ekeler is being drafted too early because his new team, the Washington Commanders, may not use him in a workhorse role, and his production has declined with age and changing team dynamics.

What are the potential issues with drafting Keenan Allen in his current ADP?

The potential issues with drafting Keenan Allen in his current ADP include his aging status, a change of teams with new coaching staff, and increased competition for targets with the addition of new players like Romad Dunbar.

Why might Trey McBride's target share decrease in the upcoming season?

Trey McBride's target share might decrease due to the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr., a top pick in the NFL draft, who is expected to draw significant targets, as well as the return of healthy teammates like Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson.

What concerns does the speaker have about Stefon Diggs' role in the Texans' offense?

The speaker is concerned that Stefon Diggs might have to move into the slot, which could result in him coming off the field in certain situations and not earning as many targets, especially with the presence of young, talented receivers like Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

Why is the speaker skeptical about drafting CJ Stroud as a top-five quarterback?

The speaker is skeptical about drafting CJ Stroud as a top-five quarterback because he lacks rushing upside, which could limit his overall fantasy points, and there are concerns about the Texans' offensive line and pass rate.

What are the reasons for the speaker's low ranking of T.J. Hockenson in the current fantasy football draft?

The speaker ranks T.J. Hockenson low due to his multi-ligament knee injury late in the previous season, which might cause him to miss a significant part of the new season, and the change in the Vikings' quarterback situation, which could affect his target share and production.

Outlines

00:00

🏈 Devonte Adams: Overvalued in Fantasy Drafts

The first paragraph discusses the overvaluation of wide receiver Davante Adams in fantasy football drafts. Despite being a top-20 pick, the speaker believes Adams should be ranked lower, at 32nd overall, due to his current quarterback situation with the Raiders and the addition of tight end Brock Bowers, which increases target competition. The Raiders' draft strategy and Adams's past performance with different quarterbacks are analyzed, suggesting that his early draft position could negatively impact a fantasy team's overall strategy.

05:00

📉 Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen: Changing Teams and Diminishing Value

The second paragraph addresses the potential pitfalls of drafting Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen too early. Ekeler, moving to the Washington Commanders, may not receive the same workload as before, given his age and the team's investment in him. Keenan Allen, now with the Chicago Bears, faces uncertainty due to a new team and coaching staff, as well as increased competition for targets with the drafting of new talent. Both players are considered to be going in drafts earlier than the speaker would recommend, based on their expected roles and team dynamics.

10:01

💪 Trey McBride: High Draft Position Despite Target Competition

In the third paragraph, the speaker questions the wisdom of drafting tight end Trey McBride in the fourth round, given his breakout performance in only 10 games last season. The addition of Harrison Jr., a top draft pick, to the Cardinals' roster is expected to increase target competition, potentially limiting McBride's opportunities. The speaker suggests that other tight ends, such as Dalton Schultz and Evan Engram, may offer better value at later positions in the draft.

15:02

🤔 Stefon Diggs and C.J. Strad: Overhyped Fantasy Picks

The fourth paragraph delves into the potential overvaluation of wide receiver Stefon Diggs and quarterback C.J. Strad in fantasy drafts. Diggs, despite being a solid player, is expected to face stiff competition for targets on his new team, which could affect his fantasy output. Strad, while having had a good rookie season, is drafted as a top-five quarterback, ahead of more mobile quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson and Kyler Murray, who the speaker believes have higher ceilings. Concerns about the Texans' offensive line and the potential for a more run-heavy approach are also raised.

❌ T.J. Hockenson: Risky Draft Pick Following Injury

The final paragraph warns against drafting tight end T.J. Hockenson, who suffered a significant knee injury late last season. The injury's severity and timing raise concerns about his ability to recover in time for the new season, and the change in his team's quarterback situation from Kirk Cousins to a less proven combination could affect his target share and production. The speaker places Hockenson much lower in their rankings than the current consensus, suggesting that other tight ends offer better value at later draft positions.

Keywords

💡Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football is a game where participants create virtual teams of real NFL players and earn points based on their real-life performance. It is central to the video's theme, which discusses player values and draft strategies. The script mentions avoiding certain players in fantasy drafts based on their current average draft positions (ADPs) and potential risks or downsides.

💡ADP (Average Draft Position)

ADP refers to the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. It is a crucial concept in the video, as the speaker advises against drafting specific players at their current ADPs, believing them to be overvalued or risky choices.

💡Devonte Adams

Devonte Adams is a professional American football player mentioned in the script as an example of a player who is being drafted too early in fantasy leagues according to the speaker's analysis. His current draft position is contrasted with the speaker's personal ranking, indicating a discrepancy in perceived value.

💡Quarterback Situation

The term 'quarterback situation' refers to the quality and performance of a team's quarterbacks, which significantly impacts the value of wide receivers in fantasy football. In the script, the lack of improvement at the quarterback position for the Raiders is cited as a reason to avoid drafting Devonte Adams.

💡Target Competition

Target competition describes the level of contention for passes among offensive players, particularly relevant for wide receivers and tight ends. The script uses this concept to explain how new player acquisitions can affect the fantasy value of existing players by reducing their share of targets.

💡Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler is a running back who changed teams, going from the Chargers to the Washington Commanders. His new situation and contract details are discussed in the script, with the speaker arguing that his ADP is too high given his age, past performance, and the team's offensive strategy.

💡Multi-Ligament Injury

A multi-ligament injury involves damage to multiple ligaments in the knee, which is a severe and complex injury for athletes. T.J. Hockenson's injury is highlighted in the script as a significant factor that could affect his fantasy value and draft position due to the expected recovery time.

💡Rookie Quarterback

A rookie quarterback is a player in their first year in the NFL. The script discusses the challenges and uncertainties of drafting players who rely on rookie quarterbacks for their fantasy value, as their performance can be unpredictable and they may not spread the ball as expected.

💡Efficiency

In the context of the script, efficiency refers to a player's ability to produce fantasy points relative to the number of opportunities they receive. Quarterback efficiency and wide receiver efficiency are mentioned as important metrics for evaluating a player's potential contribution to a fantasy team.

💡Red Zone

The Red Zone in American football is the area on the field close to the opponent's goal line, typically the last 20 yards. The script mentions the Red Zone in relation to a quarterback's performance and how it can affect the fantasy value of tight ends and other offensive players.

💡RB (Running Back)

RB stands for running back, a position in American football responsible for carrying the ball during running plays. The script discusses the value of running backs in fantasy football, particularly in relation to Austin Ekeler's situation and the potential for other running backs to outperform him.

Highlights

Devonte Adams is overvalued in fantasy football drafts, being picked as a top 20 player while the speaker ranks him 32nd overall.

The Raiders' quarterback situation is a significant concern for Adams' fantasy value, with no significant improvement during the offseason.

The selection of tight end Brock Bowers in the draft increases target competition for Adams, potentially reducing his value.

Austin Ekeler's move to the Washington Commanders and his age could diminish his fantasy output compared to previous seasons.

Ekeler's guaranteed contract money suggests he won't be the workhorse back, impacting his fantasy draft position.

Keenan Allen's change to the Chicago Bears and the presence of other strong receivers could reduce his target share.

Trey McBride's breakout season might not be sustainable with increased competition for targets on the Cardinals.

Stefon Diggs' age and the presence of other talented receivers on his new team make his current ADP questionable.

CJ Stroud's current draft position as a top-five quarterback is debated, considering his lack of rushing upside.

T.J. Hockenson's recovery from a serious knee injury and the change in quarterback could significantly impact his fantasy value.

The speaker offers a fantasy blueprint tool to help with drafting strategies, including risk-free access if the user doesn't make the playoffs.

The importance of considering a player's situation, team dynamics, and injury history when evaluating their fantasy football draft value is emphasized.

The quarterback play and offensive schemes are critical in determining a wide receiver's fantasy success.

The addition of new players through the draft or free agency can significantly alter a player's fantasy landscape.

Aging players and their physical condition should be considered, especially after serious injuries like ACL tears.

The market's perception of a player's value might not align with a detailed analysis of their situation and potential.

Transcripts

today we are discussing seven players

that I believe you must avoid in fantasy

football based on where they're

currently going in drafts right now and

this one hurts to say but I think

Devonte Adams belongs on that list

because he's currently going as a top 20

player and again it might sound crazy to

say this but that is wrong because as

you could see at the top of the fantasy

blueprint right here I currently have

Adams as my 32nd overall player he goes

as the 17th overall player that's a 15

spot difference and you just can't be

taking these types of players that early

in drafts it'll ruin your entire draft

and there's a lot that goes into this

and let's start to break it down Adams

might have been the biggest loser this

entire off season out of any player for

Fantasy because the Raiders were

basically the only team that really

didn't get an improvement at the

quarterback position in the entire NFL

you can see right here this was the NFL

draft and there's a ton of quarterbacks

taken the first three picks were

quarterbacks and if you just keep

scrolling another quarterback at pick

number eight and Michael penck JJ

McCarthy at 10 and Bo Nicks at number 12

these six quarterbacks are all taken

before the Raiders pick at pick 13 so

they couldn't get one of these guys that

maybe one of these rookies improves the

quarterback position for them and

instead they got brought Bowers out of

Georgia a tight end who is one of the

best tight ends if not the best tight

end we've ever seen in college football

and what he does is bring even more

Target competition to the receiver room

so if anything just this first round

pick in not being a quarterback and

actually being Brock Bowers hurts

Devonte Adams it actually got worse for

him not better as a lot of people

expected maybe it would get better with

a quarterback so now this leaves Devonte

in a pretty crappy spot because the

quarterback situation is not great it

wasn't great last year now Jimmy G is

even gone here's what we're currently

working with in the Raiders quarterback

room Aiden okono a second-year player

who did not have a good rookie year he's

coming back and then they signed Garner

mchi to a 2-year deal didn't give him a

ton of guaranteed money he ranks like

30th in quarterback guaranteed money so

like this is a terrible situation now

Adams did actually averaged 15.8 points

per game and 11.2 targets per game with

Aiden okono last year and those are

solid numbers but he is also a solid

wide receiver he basically had the same

production with Jimmy G it's not like

Aiden oconnell was fueling Devonte Adams

performances if anything he was harming

them because as you can see right here

on player profiler aen oono in

quarterback efficiency his yards per

10th ranked 27th amongst all

quarterbacks then you scroll down to his

accuracy his true completion percentage

was 24th and this got even worse when he

was targeting balls downfield 20 plus

yards and under pressure and then

there's mchu who was kind of productive

in the Colts offense last year but

basically it was because of the way it

was coached by Shane siken they gave him

easy completions but despite that mchu

was still 25th in quarterback efficiency

and through the fourth most

interceptable passes and then another

knock against Devonte Adams is his coach

Antonio pierce his philosophy is to run

the ball a couple of times at postgame

press conferences last year he was like

visibly upset when his running back

didn't get 20 plus carries and across

the N9 games with Antonio Pierce as the

interm head coach last year the Raiders

ranked 20th in neutral pass rate and

even when they were trailing by seven or

more they still ranked in the bottom 10

in pass rate all that basically

translates to Antonio Pierce loves to

run the ball in all situations even if

they're trailing by over seven points

now as for the Target competition it's

basically going to be pretty similar

outside of Brock Bowers being added in

you're going to get jacobe Myers who was

pretty quietly a successful wide

receiver last year in this offense he

was averaging nearly seven targets per

game and was one of the most consistent

producers on a weekly basis for Fantasy

more specifically Myers had at least 11

fantasy points in 63% of his games

that's up there with like some of the

tops in the league in terms of

consistency and then we don't even have

to get into the fact that he is an aging

receiver at 31 so Devonte Adams right

now going as the 17th overall player I

just think it's way too soon it's one to

two rounds earlier all these guys who

currently go after him I would just much

rather have in drafts you have guys like

Derk Henry and a couple of other pieces

if we were to scroll up definitely guys

like Malik neighbors Chris will get into

some of these pieces now let's move from

the wide receiver position and talk

about a running back who you've all

loved in fantasy for years I'm sure and

that takes us back to the fantasy

blueprint at the top here we're going to

talk about Austin Eckler Who currently

goes as the 91st overall player in round

eight I am 21 spots later I think he

goes two rounds way too early and now if

you don't know and you're not familiar

or caught up ackler is no longer a

charger he's now on the Washington

commanders he signed a two-year deal

with them this offseason and more

specifically that two-year deal it's

worth about $8 million but if you scroll

over to the guaranteed money just $4

million guaranteed across two years

that's $2 million per year which is like

a little bit better than your average

backup money which I bring this up

because this indicates that Eckler's not

going to be put in any work type role

and that probably makes sense based on

what we saw last year he's now 29 years

old and last year he averages 3.3 yards

per carry that was 62nd in the NFL which

is not great at all and there's a lot of

things that went into this Eckler was

hurt to start the season his offensive

line was hurt during parts of the Year

Justin Herbert his quarterback was hurt

as well but there was still a

significant drop in production when he

was healthy and you could see right here

a big piece was just the drop in

everything his reception's going from

107 or even 70 the year before that to

just 51 that's a massive drop and

honestly we might not even see 51 this

year based on the offense that he's in

because now he has a mobile rookie

quarterback and Jaden Daniels and those

types of guys will take off and run

instead of checking it down and also

Austin Eckler might not see 13 carries

per game this year because he's not

going to be the starter in my opinion in

Washington and then another thing to

bring up is that Cliff kingsberry is the

new offensive coordinator for Washington

and if we scroll down here as a coach in

the NFL he spent four seasons with the

Arizona Cardinals 2019 to 2022 a lot of

people know him in college as a guy who

passed the ball a lot the air rate

offense but in the NFL he actually ranks

below average in pass rate he's more so

running compared to the other teams in

the league and for a guy in Eckler who's

known for paying off in the receiving

department and scoring touchdowns this

mobile quarterback and now an offensive

coordinator who doesn't really pass the

ball a lot to his running backs these

things are some concerns and not only

does kingsberry not Target running backs

in the receiving game neither did jayen

Daniels last year in college these are

the running backs last year for Daniels

the leading Target earner in college was

15 targets 10 targets if you add these

all up he only targeted his running

backs 8% of the time which is well below

the college average and like I said I

don't believe he's going to be the

starting running back this year I think

that's going to be Brian Robinson

profiles out more like a Workhorse back

average over 14 opportunities per game

last year and it was actually pretty

good he was top 10 in yards created per

touch in 2023 so I prefer to just pass

on Austin Eckler when I'm looking at him

in the eighth round right now there's a

ton of guys I'd rather have before him

as I scroll up here you can see all of

these names basically every single

person above here I would rather have

James Conor lad makoni Calvin Ridley

Christian Watson these are guys who are

going in the same range as allus Eckler

especially Christian Watson I'd rather

have now let's move back to the wide

receiver position we're talking about

another beloved veteran and it is the

former charger Keenan Allen again if

you're not familiar he is no longer on

the charger and this one actually hurts

because I always love Keenan Allen he's

been one of the most reliable receivers

in the NFL but as you can see in the

fantasy blueprint his ADP his average

draft position is 50th he's a top 50

player overall this year he's my 67th

overall player so I'm 17 spots behind

the market one to two rounds early in my

opinion is how Keenan Allen goes too

early and it seems crazy to say this

because just a year ago even though he

was 31 and an aging receiver he was

still highly productive I mean the dude

had 150 targets last year despite

missing like three to four games and his

11 and a half targets per game as you

can see right here on Player Pro

profiler led the entire NFL but it

wasn't just the volume that was crazy he

was also efficient ranking 11th in wide

receiver efficiency and second in the

entire NFL and first stre Target chair

which is pretty predictive of your

future success this dude Keenan Allen

was and always has been a stud so what

is the issue well he's changing teams

he's now in the Chicago bearers and as

an aging veteran changing teams this

could be a concern are you going to be

used in the right ways do the team does

the team have any emotional or other

connections to you to want to put you in

there over some other guys and not only

is it a new team but it's a new team

with a brand new coaching staff and an

offensive coordinator coming in now that

offensive coordinator is Shane Waldren

he comes over from Seattle he spent time

with the Rams as well but as you can see

from Seattle from 2021 to 2023 it was

the offensive coordinator each of the

past two seasons he's ranked top 10 in

neutral pass rat so this guy does like

to throw the ball when the game is close

so in theory this team should throw the

ball more this year and their offseason

moves have kind of proved that they

drafted the first overall pick

quarterback Caleb Williams they traded

for Kean and Allen himself and then they

drafted a top 10 wide receiver pick in

romad dunza but this last point is where

the issue comes in or at least starts to

come in for Keenan Allen when we talk

about romad dun and adun is the type of

prospect the top 10 overall pick Elite

athlete overall producer in college this

is the type a guy who gets on the field

right away as a rookie with that draft

capital and produces and if you're not

familiar he spent time at Washington

Four Seasons there and last year he had

his massive season of over 1,500 total

yards and the guy just won everywhere at

the line of scrimmage downfield and

after the catch and I think that adun is

going to play an outside receiver role

for Chicago soon if not right away for

the team and if that's the case he might

take snaps away from Keenan Allen and in

fantasy drafts so doing actually goes 38

picks later but it doesn't just stop at

a dunesday because DJ Moore is also

there who's been on this team and last

year he had a career year with over

1,300 total yards despite playing with

an inaccurate quarterback in Justin

fields and Moore is definitely going to

start he's going to play on the outside

so if ad dun actually can get some

outside receiver snaps then you get

Keenan Allen coming off the field which

just means less overall Targets in

production maybe that happens maybe it

doesn't but if I just scroll up to the

guys I'd rather have in this range give

me Terry McClaren all day over Keenan

Allen and I can scroll up even more guys

like Amari Cooper I want over Keenan Al

definitely tanked out these guys are

going after him currently even Christian

Kirk all right now let's discuss our

first tight end of this video and hey if

you're finding this video helpful so far

make sure you're subscribed to the

channel just double check now this

brings us to the Cardinals tight end

Trey McBride who had one of the better

seasons of all the tight ends in the NFL

last year and he basically did it in

just 10 games now right now Trey McBride

goes as the 43rd overall player he's

taken often in the fourth round of

drafts and in my opinion that is too

early I have him as my 55th overall

player he goes about round a little bit

more than around early in my opinion and

let's discuss this like I said he B

basically broke out in just 10 games

last year because he really didn't get

on the field seeing a lot more snaps at

least like over 70% until week eight and

then right away almost instantly in week

eight the guy breaks out over 25 fantasy

points look at this 10 receptions 95

yards a touchdown 14 targets a massive

14 targets he was the dude and from this

point on according to ROV VI's game log

tracker right here his final 10 games of

the year basically averag 15 fantasy

points per game eight and a half targets

per game he was easily one of the best

tight ends in all of fantasy during the

stretch now all of this is great but it

lacks context because during that time

Maris Brown was hurt and he was really

just competing with guys like Greg dorch

and Michael Wilson for targets and this

allowed McBride to slide in as the

number one option in this offense and

finish as the 42nd overall player during

those final 10 games which is solid

that's basically where he's going right

now in drafts and you can see that right

here he goes as the 46th overall player

so this is basically saying okay he'll

just continue his production from the

final 10 games last year but how can

that be the case if he now has much more

difficult Target competition because

with a top five pick in the NFL draft

Yeah top five pick not just a first

round pick the Cardinal selected

Harrison JR out of Ohio State one of the

best prospects in honestly the past 10

to 20 years to come out at the wide

receiver position I mean this dude is

being compared closely to guys like

Julio Jones and CD lamb when they were

prospects coming out of college and we

obviously know how their careers have

gone and did go now this is what Marvin

Harrison did in college his final two

years was at Ohio State a tough program

tough competition over 12200 yards each

year you can see in 2022 and 2023 had 14

touchdowns each year and he was doing

this while competing against a nuer

future number one receiver in in the NFL

or first round pick I should say and

amuka the dude is a legit threat the

second he steps on the football field

and yeah that's going to be an upgrade

in Target competition compared to what

Trey McBride was dealing with last year

but it doesn't stop there and now that

I'm thinking about it I think I

butchered aba's name so before you get

the Twitter fingers in the comments I

apologize for that because now he has to

compete with Marvin Harrison also those

two guys from last year Greg dor and

Michael Wilson but then there's Z Jones

which might not seem like a lot but when

you're adding this type of depth

receiver Z Jones who went healthy over

the past few years and seasons has been

a quality intermediate to downfield

receiver I think this is an upgrade from

a guy like Rond Del Moore who was with

the team last year so it means even more

tough competition for Trey McBride now

there is one key area where I can see

pretty obviously that McBride could pay

off this fourth round price tag and

that's the touchdowns Department in his

NFL career through two seasons just four

total touchdowns three last year one the

year before that if he could have like a

10 touchdown season well of course then

he could pay off this price tag but we

could say that with almost anyone and it

becomes more difficult to Envision that

when you have Kyler Murray out there

this was Kyler Murray last year just 13

Red Zone carries but he did this in just

eight games so he was seeing over one

Red Zone carry per game that's going to

hurt your tight ends upside in the red

zone now in my opinion right now there's

just no way that I could be drafted Trey

McBride as like the 43rd 44th overall

player I mean right now I would just

rather wait and get Dalton concade 10

picks later or wait even later than that

and you can scroll all the way down here

and start seeing some other tight ends

like Evan Ingram goes way later scroll

even more and you can wait on Jake

Ferguson like four to five rounds later

so maybe some guys I've brought up so

far in this video have made you upset

and I think this next guy might be the

guy who makes you the most upset in the

entire video and if it's not Stefon digs

it'll definitely be the next guy I'm

talking about so again those Twitter

fingers the comment fingers just hear me

out before we go all crazy because right

now Stefan digs goes as the 28th overall

player in drafts he's often taken in the

second or the early third round and

that's just way too early in my opinion

he's my 48th overall player I'm never

getting this guy I'm 20 rounds later

than ADP in the fantasy blueprint which

you can get down below if you want you

can get it for a risk-free offer right

now basically any single person can get

it absolutely risk- free we'll talk more

about it later but if you were to scroll

through here right now people are taking

Stefon Diggs after all these guys who go

after him Mike Evans Travis Kelce Derk

Henry Jaylen Wadd is a crazy one to me

and so was Devon Smith and DK mcaf I

mean this is all crazy now here's what

we know about he was traded to this team

he's on a one-year deal so he's

basically a rental as this team tries to

maximize the window that they have with

CJ st's rookie contract it makes sense

now that's all fair but it's just pretty

surprising to me to see that Nico

Collins goes in drafts as like the 20th

receiver Stefon digs like the 27th a lot

of drafts you'll see him go as a top 24

guys so he's pretty close to Nico

Collins which means that some people

believe that there's a decent chance

Diggs is the number one receiver on this

team but not just that it's not just

that he'll be the number one receiver it

could be but it's enough to be a second

round pick or third round pick worthy

I'm skeptical because Diggs is turning

31 this year after coming off one of the

more or the poorer Seasons or one of the

poorer Seasons let's get that together s

of his career and now some people might

say oh because of the fact that they had

an offensive coordinator change

mid-season I actually believe this

mattered some but he still was seeing

accurate targets the seventh most

accurate target rating in the league

Stefan digs had from won Josh Allen now

the big thing that you could probably

turn to and get away from is just the

way that they were using him once they

got rid of Ken dorsy and hired their new

offensive coordinator and that's the way

they used him right here his average

depth of Target how far downfield his

average Target went was just 10 yards

downfield 15 9th in the NFL so he wasn't

seeing as many deep targets as usual or

maybe not deep targets but just as many

like 10 to 15 yard targets but here's

the thing I don't think that's changing

now that he's going to be 31 especially

entering this offense because that deep

target range is just absolutely

dominated and held by Nico colins who

was the best wide receiver in the NFL

last year on targets of 15 or more yards

and nicoo ended his season last year

ranking second in wide receiver

efficiency sixth in yards after the

catch and seventh in fantasy points per

game and now he's entering his age 25

season the prime of his career is this

team's clear Alpha but that's not all

that digs is going to deal with because

then you also have tank Dell out there

who also won on the outside for the

large majority of last season he was an

outside receiver believe it or not even

though he's smaller 70% of the time and

he ranked 12th in average Target

distance and 14th in yards per out run

and that average Target distance being

top 12 in the NFL means that he was

seeing downfield Targets on the outside

so I think that there's a world where

Stefon Diggs has to move into the slot

in this offense and if that's the case

when there's only two wide receivers on

the field Diggs is going to come off the

field in certain situations and just not

be able to earn more targets now that

might seem like the extreme downside

case but I do think it's realistic when

you look at these other two guys in this

offense are like 25 and 22 years old the

Aging a wide receiver versus these young

guys who were just top 20 receivers in

fantasy and efficiency last year then

there's also this concern I have right

here this is part of the fantasy Blue

Print it's all the team changes from the

NFL draft from key free agent additions

and subtractions it's the offensive line

for the Texans look at the subtractions

right here this offensive line kind of

just got by last year was banged up and

then they lose three pieces in Michael

deer Josh Jones and George F and they

only replace it with a rookie in the NFL

draft Blake fiser and then a late round

rookie larius Henderson so really this

offensive line in my opinion is kind of

suspect and not for nothing maybe this

leads to them running the ball More Than

People expect they did sign Joe Mixon in

free agency this team ranked 17th in

pass rate last year so they weren't

throwing the ball all around the field

like people think I don't know I'm just

spitballing here but based on his

current ADP and all the factors that we

just talked about I'm really not in on a

on Stefon Diggs unless he drops now this

next player if Stefan Diggs didn't do it

for you I think that this quarterback is

going to be the guy that everybody goes

hey how dare you Salin is outside my

door wav their fist it's the guy we just

talked about a little bit it's CJ stad

the Houston Texans quarterback and

here's the deal he's obviously great he

had a great rookie season I don't doubt

it he never turned the ball over he

looked comfortable and efficient but

here's the thing stad currently goes

right now as the quarterback five in

drafts yes a top five quarterback he's

going ahead of Anthony Richardson about

five to 10 picks ahead of Anthony

Richardson right now you can scroll down

here and you can see Kyler Murray he's

going 20 picks ahead of Kyler Murray I

bring these names up because I think

these guys have a high ceiling and can

easily out R him I think Anthony

Richardson definitely can I think he has

quarterback one upside based on his

Mobility he's coming off the shoulder

surgery but he was throwing after four

months he has a great coach in Shane St

and I think that's a guy I'd rather have

than CJ stra and then similar things

could be said for Kyler Murray as well

because here's the thing CJ stra doesn't

have the rushing upside he's mobile but

he doesn't use it he average just 11

rushing yards per game last year ranking

31st amongst all quarterbacks 167 yards

ranked just 21st so even though he has

the upgrades with Stephon digs joining

the team and replacing no Brown in the

starting rotation and Joe Mixon now in

the back field he's going to need like a

40 plus touch down season if he's

actually going to finish top five around

these mobile quarterbacks maybe 40 plus

is a bit aggressive but you get my point

there and then there's also the

offensive line concerns that can come

into play this year that I don't think

anybody's talking about so rather than

taking CJ strad as the 48th overall

player I'm 30 spots later on him why not

just wait a little bit you can scroll

down get Anthony Richardson a round

later you could scroll down a whole lot

more and that's where Kyler Murray

becomes available two to two and a half

rounds later for a guy who I think has a

higher ceiling than CJ strap now before

we get into the guy who I think is the

number one most avoid in all fantasy

football as of right now I do have to

let you know about the beautiful fantasy

blueprint and look I'm not going to take

up a lot of your time you'll get a link

in the description below or you can scan

the QR code and it'll take you to this

page you click get access and what does

it take you to some options to get the

fantasy blueprint absolutely risk-free

based on where you're located these two

main options and there's what this one

down here just in case those first two

don't work for you and I say it's

risk-free because if you don't make your

fantasy playoffs I just refund this

small payment the one time payment of

like 10 bucks or whatever it is no

questions ask you get it back RIS free

and I'm going to help you all season

long not just for your draft but weeks 1

through 18 I'll be sending you tools

every single day Waiver Wires rankings

for that week projections all this to

help you win your leag so you can check

out that fantasy blueprint down below

now to talk about our final player of

the video he's on the screen right now

he's a tight end can you pick which one

he is well I'll let you know it's this

guy right here TJ hackinson is one of

the worst picks as of right now in my

opinion in all of fantasy football and

it might seem crazy to see that T.J

hawson goes as the 138th overall player

right now he's like a 10th round pick

11th round pick and why is the reason

for this well you might have forgot he

tore his ACL but not only did he tear

his ACL he tore it in week 16 last year

which is late in the season and it was a

m multi- ligament injury it was both the

ACL and MCL which naturally takes more

than the average 9 to 10 months to

recover from it might take up to an

entire 12 months which obviously that

brings in some worries because he tore

it in week 16 if it took near 12 months

which again is probably not likely but

it could happen he might miss the entire

season more realistically he'll probably

start the year in the pup miss four to

six plus weeks so that's already not

great that's like best case scenario why

draft this guy and then there's the

second bad news if you look at ROV is

here is quarterback's no longer Kirt

cousins and with kurk cousins in 24

games in his career he averages 12.8

points more than the other games of his

entire career and 7.7 targets per game

he doesn't have this guy now instead he

has this combination of quarterbacks

rookie JJ McCarthy and Sam darnold who

as of right now Sam Dar is the starting

quarterback in OTAs and maybe that's

where he's going to start the year which

is not the best there's also the concern

that rookie quarterbacks rarely sustain

two weapons I know CJ stra did it last

year but it's pretty rare and I'm pretty

sure the $140 million wide receiver

Justin Jefferson is going to be the guy

who is the number one option on this

team so now you might be thinking s

isn't this already baked into his price

as like a 10th or an 11th round pick and

my answer to that would be absolutely

not I think according to my fantasy

blueprint he's a 14th or 15th round pick

he's my 168th overall player I'm 58

spots lower than consensus the most I am

on any other player because here's the

deal right now look at all of the guys

that he is currently going before you

can see all these guys after him I

definitely want Tyler Lockett instead

you look look at the exact same position

you can scroll down and it's rounds

later why not just get Pat Fruth two to

three rounds later why not just wait

even longer than that you can keep

scrolling and scrolling and scrolling

and finding another tight end in this

range like Jawan Johnson you could wait

lit literally six to seven rounds and

get Jawan Johnson who I think is

actually going to at least play half the

season or more generally speaking I

don't like drafting guys coming off of a

multi- ligament knee injury especially

when it was in week 16 and he's a

somewhat older player not old but older

I say generally speaking because

sometimes the ADP accounts for it but in

this situation it definitely does not so

beautiful people we made it through it

these are the seven players that please

please stop drafting them at least as of

right now at their current ADP we do not

hate players we just don't like their

adps now if you want to see some of the

players that you must draft this season

while I'll put those two videos right

here early on these are the must draff

running backs and wide receivers that I

believe based on their current adps in

fantasy football