97% Lie

Summary

The script argues against the notion of 97% scientific consensus on human-caused climate change. It contends this statistic derives from a flawed study, as only 1.6% of analyzed papers explicitly state humans cause over 50% of warming. The script maintains climate has always changed, irrespective of humans. It holds there has only been gradual warming since 1850, not the drastic rise activists warn of, and no increase in extreme weather events. It concludes most scientists agree warming is occurring, but there is incredible diversity of opinions on its causes and solutions, contrary to claims of overwhelming consensus.

Takeaways

• 🌍 The claim that 97% of scientists agree humans are the main cause of climate change is contested, with an assertion that only 1.6% agree.
• 🔍 A critique of John Cook's study is presented, suggesting it misrepresented scientific consensus on climate change by aggregating different categories of agreement.
• 📊 According to the critique, Cook's analysis involved a statistical manipulation that excluded a significant portion of studies, inflating the consensus to 97%.
• 📚 The script argues that a majority of the papers Cook analyzed did not explicitly comment on mankind's role in climate change.
• 🔬 It's suggested that only a small fraction of the studies explicitly support the view that human activity is a major contributor to global warming.
• 🌡️ The narrative acknowledges a slow, marginal warming trend since the 1850s but disputes the extent of human responsibility.
• 📉 The script challenges the notion of a dramatic increase in extreme weather events, claiming there is no significant rise in hurricanes, floods, or forest fires attributable to climate change.
• 🐾 Claims about a dangerous shortage of polar bears and other climate-related catastrophes are contested.
• 🌳 Historical climate variability is highlighted, with references to colder periods in the Early Middle Ages and warmer periods when vineyards thrived in Scotland.
• ❄️ The Little Ice Age is mentioned to argue that climate has always changed independently of human activities.

Q & A

What percentage of scientists did the tweet by Barack Obama claim agree that climate change is real, man-made, and dangerous?

Barack Obama's tweet claimed that 97% of scientists agree climate change is real, man-made, and dangerous.

Who published the paper in 2013 that aimed to demonstrate an overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change?

The paper was published in 2013 by John Cook, a controversial environmental activist who runs the alarmist website Skeptical Science.

What statistical trick did John Cook use regarding the papers that did not comment on man's role in climate change?

John Cook applied a statistical trick by leaving out the 67% of papers that did not comment on man's role in climate change. This caused the percentage of papers supporting man-made climate change to increase from 33% to 97%.

What percentage of studies actually supported the conclusion that mankind is responsible for a significant aspect of climate change?

Only 1.6% of the studies analyzed supported the conclusion that mankind is responsible for a significant aspect of climate change.

What evidence does the script provide against the claim that extreme weather events have increased due to climate change?

The script states there has been no increase in hurricanes, floods, or other forms of extreme weather events that could be attributed to climate change.

What natural climate variations over history are mentioned as evidence against man-made climate change?

The early Middle Ages being much colder than now, the medieval warm period when vineyards existed in Scotland, and the Little Ice Age from the 16th-17th centuries are mentioned as evidence of natural climate variation.

What trend in global temperatures does the script state exists since the 1850s?

The script states there has been a slow, marginal warming trend in global temperatures since the 1850s.

Why does the script argue it is illogical that 97% of scientists would agree man is mainly responsible for climate change?

Because the climate has always changed due to natural causes, irrespective of and independent from human activity.

What is the main conclusion regarding the claimed 97% consensus among scientists on climate change?

The claim that 97% of scientists agree man is mainly responsible for climate change is nonsense. At most, only 1.6% of studies supported that conclusion.

What does the script recommend regarding climate change policy?

The script states there is no need to panic and implies no drastic policy changes are warranted to address climate change.