Warning Signs: S&P 500 Plummet Ahead
Summary
TLDRインベストメント業界のベテランであるJeff Hugeが、手堅いチャート分析をベースに、現在の市場の過熱状況とそれに伴うリスクについて警鐘を鳴らしています。投資家の楽観的な姿勢、業績見通しの過剰な楽観主義、株式市場の過小評価、AI株のへゲモニー、内部者売りの増加などの指標を紹介し、市場の調整局面が間近に迫っていることを示唆しています。伝統的な引波理論に基づき、今週末の発表が最後の上昇の引き金になる可能性も指摘しつつ、その後の長期的な下落基調に注意を促しています。
Takeaways
- 🗓️ ニュースレターが3月2日(土曜日)に発行される
- 📈 ニューヨーク証券取引所の composite 指数と新高・新低の比率に乖離が見られている
- 🤖 AIにより 7つのビッグテック企業が大きく高騰している
- 📊 過去のデータを見ると、ウォール街の予測は実際の実績を上回ることが多い
- 🌎 7大テック企業の時価総額が中国の株式市場を上回っている
- 😀 投資家センチメントが極端な高水準にある
- 🔮 波動理論解析により、市場が頂点に近づいている可能性がある
- 🏢 経営幹部の大量売却も頂点に近づいている兆候である
- 💰 流動性の低下が今後の金融危機のきっかけとなる可能性がある
- 📚 今後の投資判断の参考にするため、ニュースレターの購読を勧める
Q & A
何を通してジェフ・ヒューゲが今回のプレゼンテーションで言及しているのでしょうか?
-ジェフ・ヒューゲは、様々なチャートや指標を分析しながら、マクロ経済や市場の動向についてディスカッションしています。特に、株式市場の割高感、投資家センチメントの極端な楽観ムード、アナリストによるEPSの過剰予想など、警告すべき点を指摘しています。
ジェフ・ヒューゲは市場のトップをいつ付けると予想していますか?
-ヒューゲは、S&P500の2月23日の最高値5111がトップを示していると考えています。または、もう一段の上昇があって、そこでトップを付けるかもしれない、と述べています。現在の4920を下回れば、トップ入れのサインになるとしています。
ヒューゲはどのような投資家のアンケートや指標を参照していますか?
-Investor's Intelligenceアドバイザー調査、ネームエクスポージャーインデックス、CNN fear & greedインデックス、Consensus Incなど、投資家センチメントを示す様々な調査結果を参照し、現在の楽観的なムードを示しています。
ジェフ・ヒューゲは、アナリストのEPS予想についてどのような意見を示していますか?
-ヒューゲは、ウォール街のアナリストの予想がたいてい過剰に楽観的であることを示したデータから、2024年と2025年のS&P500 EPSがコンセンサス予想よりも19%程度低い194ドルと220ドルになる可能性があると指摘しています。
ヒューゲが言及する「MAG 7」とは何でしょうか?
-MAG 7とはマイクロソフト、アップル、Nvidia、Google、アマゾン、Meta、テスラという7大テック株のことを指します。ヒューゲは、これらの企業の時価総額がこれだけ巨大になり、指数の大きな部分を占めるようになったことに警鐘を鳴らしています。
ジェフ・ヒューゲの投資家向け情報サービスについて教えてください。
-ヒューゲはJW Investment Partnersの最高投資責任者で、Alpha Insightsファウンダーです。月額のsubstack投資ニュースレター「Huge Insights」を発行しており、有料会員には週次のトレードアイデア、マーケットコメンタリー、その他のコンテンツも提供しています。
エリオットウェーブ理論の観点からヒューゲはどのように市場をみているでしょうか?
-ヒューゲは、エリオットウェーブ理論に従ってカウントを行い、現在の上昇はサイクルウェーブ5、スーパーサイクルウェーブ3の終盤に当たると考えています。今後は5つのドミノ的なギャップをすべて埋めるように下落が続き、マルチイヤー、あるいは10年に渡る大規模な調整局面に入るとみています。
ヒューゲはどのような経済見通しを示していますか?
-ヒューゲは2024年にアメリカ経済が景気後退に陥り、グローバル不況が起きる可能性が高いと予想しています。そして、金融危機が起こる可能性も指摘しており、そのトリガーとなる要因の一つが市場の流動性の問題となると警告しています。
ヒューゲはNYSE総合指数の上昇ラインと下降ラインにおける一致性の欠如に言及していますが、これは何を意味していますか?
-ヒューゲは、NYSE総合指数では新高値を記録したものの、構成銘柄の上昇ラインと下降ラインの比率が新高値には到達していないことを指摘しています。これは価格行動とブレッド指標の乖離を意味し、従来から重要な市場トレンドの転換を予兆するものとされています。
ジェフ・ヒューゲが市場環境に対し指摘する主な警告点は何ですか?
-ヒューゲが指摘する主な警告点は、1)株式市場の過度の高値、2)投資家センチメントの極端な楽観ムード、3)アナリスト予想の過剰な楽観性、4)MAG7等の巨大テック株への高度な集中リスク、5)市場の流動性の脆弱性などがあげられます。これらを総合的に考慮すると、ヒューゲは現在の市場環境をリスクが高いと判断しているようです。
Outlines
😀 ビデオ紹介とニュースレター登録の勧誘
ホストのジェフ・ヒューズが視聴者を歓迎し、この日がウェデンズデーの2月28日であることを伝えています。彼はJW投資パートナーの投資責任者であり、アルファインサイトの創設者でもあります。今回のプレゼンテーションは「デイリー5」と呼ばれ、投資家にとって重要な上位5つのチャートを解説するものです。今週はボーナスのチャートもあるので最後まで見続けてほしいと述べています。また、3月2日の来週土曜日に、月刊ニュースレター「ヒューインサイト」の次号を発行することを告知しています。このニュースレターは毎月第1土曜日に無料で配信されており、サブスタックのウェブサイト(hughinsights.substack.com)から直接メールボックスに受け取ることができます。さらに、月額$12.50の有料サービスについても紹介しており、より詳細で実践的な情報が含まれることを説明しています。
🤔 コンセンサスの予測は常に間違っている
このチャートは、1980年から2016年にかけての期間を対象としたY Dennyリサーチによる研究結果を示しています。そこでは、ウォールストリート・コンセンサスの年間S&P500営業利益予測値と実際の結果を比較しています。研究によれば、36年間を通してコンセンサス予測は100%の割合で間違っており、78%の時間で平均19%以上オーバーエスティメートしていたことが明らかになりました。残りの22%の時間では平均6.7%の割合でアンダーエスティメートしていました。今年と来年のS&P500営業利益予測はそれぞれ240ドルと272ドルですが、過去の傾向から見ると194ドルと220ドルの方が現実的な予想値になると考えられます。実際、過去3年間の営業利益は218ドルから220ドルの間でほとんど成長しておらず、もしコンセンサス予測が過去と同様に楽観的過ぎた場合、5年連続で営業利益が横ばいになる可能性があります。
❓ S&P 500の予想12ヶ月PERは27.9倍
S&P 500の予想12ヶ月PERは27.9倍と極めて高い水準にあります。これは、2000年のドットコム・バブルのピーク時に記録された25倍を上回っています。大手100銘柄で構成される上位100銘柄だけを見ても、その時価純資産倍率は27.9倍となっています。このグループの株式は、S&P 500の時価総額の71.8%、営業利益の50%以上を占めているため、市場を代表する指標と考えられます。現在の高い株価は、企業の実際の収益成長ではなく投資家の強気なセンチメントが主な要因となっていることを示唆しており、引き続き警戒が必要です。詳細な分析データはニュースレターの有料版でご覧いただけます。
🤩 テク株7社の時価総額は中国市場を超える
マイクロソフト、アップル、NVIDIA、グーグル、アマゾン、メタ、テスラの7大テクノロジー企業(「The Magnificent 7」)の合計時価総額が、世界第2位の株式市場である中国を上回っています。この7社だけで世界の時価総額の13.1%を占め、3位の日本(6.2%)の2倍にのぼります。マイクロソフトだけでも75%のG20諸国の時価総額を超えており、これらの企業の利益は広範な世界の株式市場に匹敵するほど高くなっています。しかし、この利益の多くは景気循環に左右されやすい広告収入に依存しているため、予想される2024年の経済減速で大きな影響を受ける可能性があります。テク株への過度の集中は前例のない水準にあり、市場リスクが高まっていると言えます。
🚨 強気な投資家心理が極端な水準に
投資家の強気姿勢を示す各種調査の結果が、再び極端な水準に達しています。最新のインベスターズ・インテリジェンス調査では、ブル(強気)のアドバイザー比率が77.5%に上り、7月の高値を上回りました。NSAの上昇率も極端な水準にあり、これらの調査結果は、12月以降何度か指摘してきたCNNの恐怖と強欲指数や名古露インデックスなどの動向と符合しています。一方で、インサイダー売却比率は過去最高の4.5倍にも達し、ベゾス、ダイアモンド、ザッカーバーグらが大量の株式を売却しました。こうした強気な投資家心理と記録的なインサイダー売却は対照的であり、市場の警戒感を高めています。
📈 ウェーブ分析でS&P 500のトップを予測
エリオット波動理論に基づく分析では、2022年10月13日の低値から5波動の大きな上昇局面(プライマリー波5)が進行しています。この動きは2024年2月23日の高値5,111ドルで終わる可能性があり、その後は長期の下落トレンドに入ると予想されます。最近の高値形成後の調整局面は、ブレッドの減速を示唆しており、トップを示す証拠となっています。一方、別の見方としては更なる上昇の可能性も残されています。明日発表されるPCEデータが予想以上に強気であれば、最後の上げ足が入る可能性もあります。しかし、4,920ドルを下抜けた場合、トップの形成を確信できるでしょう。その後は一連のギャップフィルを経て、10月13日の3,583ドルのレベルまで下落する可能性が高いと考えられています。
👋 アウトロと連絡先情報
ホストのジェフ・ヒューズが、プレゼンテーションを締めくくりました。視聴者に対してウェブサイト(www.jwinvestment.com)、Twitterアカウント(@Alpha Insights)、ニュースレターのサブスクリプション(huginsights.substack.com)をチェックするよう呼びかけています。今後もよいトレーディングを心から願っていると述べました。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡投資
💡株価収益率 (PER)
💡内部者売買
💡投資アドバイザーのバイアス
💡エリオット波動理論
💡NASDAQコンポジット指数
💡コンセンサス予測
💡AI関連テクノロジー企業
💡アナリストのセンチメント
💡ギャップ
Highlights
The advanced/decline line for the NYSE composite index has failed to confirm the new highs in the index, which has historically preceded important market reversals.
There is a double negative divergence developing in the ratio of new 52-week highs to new 52-week lows, which is also concerning.
A study shows that the Wall Street consensus forecast for S&P 500 operating earnings has been wrong 100% of the time from 1980 to 2016, typically overestimating earnings by an average of 19%.
The top 100 stocks in the S&P 500, which account for 71.8% of the index's market cap, are currently trading at an index-weighted forward 12-month price-earnings multiple of 27.9x, exceeding the valuation at the peak of the dot-com bubble.
The combined market capitalization of the seven mega-cap tech stocks (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla) exceeds the size of China's stock market and is about double the size of Japan's stock market.
There is an unprecedented overconcentration of the market in these mega-cap tech stocks, rivaling the dot-com bubble era and the 'Nifty Fifty' in the 1970s.
Investor sentiment has hit another bullish extreme, with the Investors Intelligence survey showing a net bullish advisor reading of 77.5%, exceeding the levels seen before the 27% market decline in 2022.
There is a stark contrast between the recent bullish extremes in investor sentiment and the record insider selling seen this year, including from Jeff Bezos, Jamie Dimon, and Mark Zuckerberg.
The Elliott Wave count suggests that the S&P 500 may have topped at 5,111 on February 23rd, completing a five-wave sequence that could mark the end of a supercycle degree third wave.
There is a dramatic fading in breadth, with fewer S&P 500 issues trading above their 50-day moving average, which confirms the negative divergence in the NYSE advance/decline line.
The current move could be a final minor wave five within the larger intermediate wave five, or there could be one more push higher to complete minute wave five and the entire sequence.
The market could see a breakdown
Transcripts
hello and welcome everybody today is
Wednesday February 28th I'm Jeff huge
Chief investment officer at JW
Investment Partners and the founder of
alpha insights and this is your daily
five as most of you will know the daily
five is the show where we go through our
top five charts that are top of mind
this week uh we actually have a couple
bonus charts so stick around to see the
end uh before we begin um I just want to
give a quick heads up that we will be
publishing uh the next issue of huge
insights the big picture on Saturday
March 2nd that's uh this coming Saturday
for those of you who uh are not familiar
with our investment newsletter uh this
is a publication that comes out every um
uh the first Saturday of every month and
uh of course it's free to subscribe uh
to the newsletter via substack you can
find it at huge insights. sub stack.com
uh have it delivered directly to your
inbox um typically we do publish
following the uh the monthly NFP report
um we we've uh entitled the newsletter
affectionately huge insights the big
picture because in this newsletter we
try and address a number of key macro
factors that are affecting both the
economy and the markets um and you know
a lot of people who read our work uh you
know they like the ideas they're looking
for a way to put this to work and and we
get a lot of inquiries hey Jeff you know
how can we take your Insight and and put
this to uh to work in our portfolio and
so you know for those who want a little
bit more we also have an option to
upgrade to paid for as little as 1250 a
month this actually includes a much
deeper more granular look at our Market
forecast and our positioning
recommendations in addition to uh some
additional content that wouldn't
normally be available in the free
portion of the newsletter paid
subscribers also receive our weekly
Alpha insights idea generator lab
publication this is part of our
institutional package uh that we make
available to newsletter subscribers as
well it actually details our top
actionable trade idea each week and
provides an up dated look at some Market
commentary uh and that goes out every
Wednesday afternoon um and in addition
to that we do also provide access uh
periodically to interim bulletins that
we publish when we've got something to
say in between our regularly scheduled
Publications and some uh special video
content as well so there's a lot there
uh for 1250 a month for those who are
interested in a little bit more let's
get started chart number one takes a
look at the Advan decline line and uh
you know notes the Divergence that has
developed here this chart is actually
taking a look at the NYSE Composite
Index on the top frame this is a broad
Market proxy it contains some 2200
issues uh it includes a vast array of
both primary and secondary stocks closed
in funds preferred stocks and also about
48rs um the index actually posted a new
all-time high on February 23rd along
with the major averages and uh you know
the only thing that really has caught
our eye here is that despite that fact
the advanced decline line for nysse
Common Stocks only uh actually made its
high back on February 15 and and has
failed to confirm the new high-end price
in the index now you know famously when
this pretty well-known bread indicator
fails to confirm price action in the
broad Market it has historically
preceded uh important Market trend
reversals and and that's something that
we are concerned about right now and
we'll dig a little deeper into that as
we go through the deck uh but I also
wanted to point out also importantly uh
there is a double negative Divergence
now uh developing uh in the ratio of new
52- we highs to New 52 we lows that's
the bottom frame here and as you could
see you know that topped in uh I think
Janu or actually late January then again
around the the uh 15th of February and
now we're making another lower high so
that's that's a double negative
Divergence there here with the uh NY
Advanced decline line Common Stocks only
we've got a lower high as well that
negative Divergence is not confirming
the new highs in price and and this is a
concern because of course um these sorts
of negative divergences tend to be a
warning signal let's move on to chart
number
two chart number two is a is a study uh
this was conducted by y Denny research a
number of years ago it actually takes a
look at data from
1980 through 2016 and we've entitled the
um the chart the consensus forecast is
wrong why do we say that well um you
know the chart illustrates the
percentage change in the Wall Street uh
consensus Force annual forecast for S&P
op EPS uh and and really what it's doing
it's looking at the forecast to the
actual result it's about a 25mon period
of time uh and it looks at a 36-year
period from uh 1980 through 2016 the
reason that we say the consensus
forecast is wrong is because 100% of the
time the study shows uh that the top-
down consensus forecast has been wrong
okay looking back over that 36 years now
the consensus actually overestimated S&P
Opera earnings 78% of the time and by an
average of uh greater than
19% uh and so um you know the consensus
is is really been a very very optimistic
uh cohort if you will now uh they have
also underestimated S&P operating
earnings uh periodically but only about
22% of the time and only by an average
of just
6.7% and so you know according to S&P
Global which is our data source for um
uh the current consensus S&P op estimate
um the street is looking for 2024 and
2025 S&P operating earnings of 240 and
272 well based on the history uh that
this this group of forecasters which is
you know uh you know dozens of Wall
Street economists and strategists um and
just using history as our guide the
actual results could just as likely
prove to be
$194 this year and 220 for next year now
that's very much in line uh kind of with
what we're thinking for this year we've
actually got a published estimate of
187 and so if the consensus uh estimate
is wrong by
19% uh and overestimating you know we
could easily see 194 and you know
perhaps even worse um the interesting
thing is that earnings have been
basically flat for the past last three
years 2021 2022 and 2023 have all come
in kind of in this 218 to 220 range
effectively no growth for that period of
time uh and you know if in fact these
consensus forecasts are overly
optimistic as they typically have been
in the past um then it's quite possible
we could see five consecutive years of
flat earnings we'll have to see um stay
tuned on that one but I just want to
kind of give you a sense
of of what this um you know process is
is like over time let's look at chart
number three
27.9
times what is the forward 12-month PE
Alex uh taking a little bit of a uh you
know a tilt toward Jeopardy here or
tipping our hat toward Jeopardy um a lot
of people would look at this number and
go what are you talking about Jeff uh I
haven't heard anybody on financial uh uh
you know tele Vision talking about a
27.9 PE for the market well you know
let's just take a look at what we have
here um the S&P 500 in our view is
excessively valued right now and
excessive valuation is not a catalyst by
any means but it is a warning and what
it means is uh that an aggregate
investor sentiment is what's been
driving the price of stocks higher not
the fundamental earnings growth of the
companies that make up the stock market
so you know based upon consensus
bottomup estimates for calendar year
2024 in other words the next 12 months
uh and using data that we've acquired
from eleg data and analytics this is
what used to be refini uh and this uh
data is through last Friday's close uh
February 23rd we actually updated a
study of the forward 12 Monon price
earnings multiple that we've done for
the top 100 stocks in the S&P 500 um why
the top 100 stocks well they
collectively account for for 71.8% of
the market cap of The Benchmark index so
um you know uh that is a large
proportion of uh the the market cap of
The Benchmark uh really concentrated in
just 100 stocks and you know I I I don't
know the exact number but uh it's well
over 50% of the earnings uh for the S&P
500 are derived from those top 100
stocks I've actually read uh one point
in time it was upwards of
83% of S&P operating earnings came from
that cohort of stocks but that's a
moving Target we never know exactly how
much it it changes quarter to quarter
but you know something well above 50% so
this is a group of stocks that we must
pay attention to and and what the study
concludes is that the largest and most
influential 100 stocks in the US Equity
Market are currently trading at an index
weighted forward 12mon price earnings
multiple of 27 .9 times now that is a
high valuation the valuation multiple
actually exceeds that which attended the
peak of the.com bubble back in March of
2000 when the uh S&P 500 traded at an
index rated forward PE multiple of just
about 25 times based on the then
prevailing bottom-up consensus forward
12-month earnings estimates at the time
um but as all will know those estimates
turned out to be completely unfounded
and uh you know those earnings never
came to fruition uh in the year 2000 and
the stock market ultimately lost roughly
50% of its value over the subsequent two
and a half years um we have a u detailed
Excel spreadsheet uh that uh you know um
goes into the granularity of how we
arrive at this number and subscribers to
our newsletter will be able to access
this data uh in the newsletter on
Saturday so uh if you're not a
subscriber sign up and you'll be able to
take a deeper look at that as well um
chart number four you know there's been
a lot of discussion about the mag 7 The
Magnificent 7 this is a cohort of uh of
AI stocks institutional Darlings if you
will it includes Microsoft and Apple
Nvidia Google Amazon meta and Tesla
although you know a few of these names
are kind of losing their luster Tesla
Tesla's down some 20% a year to date
Apple was down as much as 5% on Friday
when we ran the numbers and uh if I'm
not mistaken Google was even down a
percent or so uh and Microsoft is just
barely positive uh Nvidia has been the
big winner this year of 60 plus percent
meta right behind it around 35 or so
Amazon's not been bad uh I think up
around 13 or 14 or 15% last time I
looked and so you know these have kind
of been the the drivers of uh
performance this year but you know the
prospect of a new paradigm driven by
artificial intelligence has really
captivated the minds of investors and um
you know it's it's led to a level of
Market concentration in these Mega cap
tech stocks that really Rivals uh that
of the doc uh bubble era or or even the
nifty50 back in the 1970s and that's why
we entitled this Slide the mag 7 versus
the world and uh what we've done is
we've kind of highlighted here with this
red circle you know these are the US
seven stocks that we're talking about
here and and according to this research
which was compiled by Deutsche Bank uh
the combined market cap of the so-called
magnificent 7 uh exceeds uh that of the
second largest uh stock market in the
world China so here's the US Stock
Market here's the China stock market the
second largest in the world and the mag
7 are actually larger uh by a
significant margin okay uh and uh it's
actually double the size of the third
Market you know we're at 13.1% of total
World Market Cap Japan is 6.2% that's
the third largest market in the in the
world so um you know one of these stocks
in fact uh Microsoft which is the
largest company in the world or in the
US right now uh and uh that that stock
alone is now larger than
75% of the G20 country stocks and so um
I think the real Point here is that the
overc
concentration uh of the market in these
stocks is really uh frankly
unprecedented uh the extent to which
they they Dominate and and one could
argue uh that the profits of these
companies uh now exceed you know a a
wide swath of global stock markets right
there the profits are highly
concentrated as well uh but you know
much of that profit comes from
advertising dollars and advertising
dollars is a highly cyclical business
and uh we believe that if we do see uh
an economic downturn in 2024 which is
our forecast uh we could see uh much of
that advertising Revenue come under
pressure and that would immediately uh
you know attack that that profitability
factor uh that the mag 7 has so so
proudly worn for some time now um so
another concern to just kind of keep in
mind as we take a look at what the
markets are up to uh in the next few
slides here slide number five I just
want to hit again uh investor sentiment
now you know we've been talking about
investor sentiment for sometime uh you
know uh we started to get some pretty um
incredible readings uh in December and
we've been highlighting those in in
these presentations and others that
we've been making publicly as well as in
our uh newsletters and institutional
research service but the point here is
that stenovate has again hit another
bullish extreme for the second time this
month the investors intelligence survey
of advisor saw a new bullish extreme now
net bullish advisors uh this is the
Bulls divided by the Bulls Plus the
Bears came in at 77 a half perc right up
here okay um that's the dark black line
is the survey line and so we can see
that you know it is now exceeding the
July highs by a pretty wide margin and
and recall that you know back in July uh
we we topped here uh in the S&P 500 with
that high uh level of bullishness by
advisers and that preceded an 11%
decline over the subsequent three months
in the S&P 500 um you know if we were to
set the Wayback machine to say December
of 2021 it's not shown in this chart uh
but actually this level uh now exceeds
uh that uh level that preceded a 27%
decline in the S&P over the subsequent
nine months from uh January 2022 through
October of 2022 and so um it's quite
concerning to be uh to be fair U now the
investors intelligence survey really
just complements uh the results that
we've been discussing over you know
these past several weeks and months uh
surveys that we've talked about include
the name exposure Index this is a index
of of professional investors that you
know basically indicate the extent to
which they are net long equities and and
that has really been hovering up in the
uh you know 90s percent it got it got as
high as 102% in late December and has
come down and actually made a lower high
so we're seeing a negative Divergence
there the fear in greed index the CNN
fear and greed index we've talked about
quite a bit as well that's been hovering
in extreme greed territory off and on
for the last two months here since late
December through late February I think
yesterday it closed out at
78% it topped in late December I think
December 26th at uh 80% has yet to make
a new high so again slightly diverging
negatively even as the major averages
make new highs and then also we've been
talking about another survey consensus
Inc which posted its highest level level
uh really uh since the bare Market began
in uh January of 2022 recently and and
so you know that's just to name a few
there are many others uh you know the
vix is fear gauge as well and that you
know shows a lot of complacency hovering
down in the you know low to mid- teens
recently and so you know the real issue
here is that these recent bullish
extremes exhibited by all of these
surveys kind of represent a stark
contrast when we consider consider it in
the context of the record Insider
selling that we've seen this year most
recently Jeff Bezos Jamie Diamond and
Mark Zuckerberg sold n billion dollar
worth of stock these are three guys that
rarely ever sell stock uh it's been
years since Jamie Diamond has sold stock
and uh for him to sell stock is is
potentially uh you know an indication
that maybe maybe he doesn't think the
Market's got much higher to go uh you
know maybe um Zuckerberg Bezos who knows
the reasons that they're uh they're
selling stack maybe Bezos wants to
launch another rocket into space Maybe
Zuckerberg uh you know has a new project
that he wants to work on we don't know
the reasons there's lots of reasons uh
that these guys sell uh but you know
there's only one reason that they buy
and that's that they think the Stock's
going higher and I don't see a lot of
Insider buying right now in fact The
Insider sell transaction ratio hit an
all-time record Extreme earlier this
year at4 5 to1 uh that was in late
January and and that was kind of a
shocking figure you know I think we
talked about it in one of our
presentations recently so um let's jump
to our first bonus chart here um bonus
chart number one really takes a look at
um the S&P 500 and our Elliot wave count
dating back to October 13 of 2022 uh
where we started we labeled this uh
primary wave for that's a primary wave
for loow so this entire channel here is
primary wave five and and we've counted
it at you know kind of an exhaustive
level we've got you know one two three
four five that's intermediate wave one
we can count five waves up we get
intermediate wave one that topped on uh
December 13th uh then it was followed by
an
ABC flat corrective wave form to get
intermediate wave to that bottomed on uh
Actually March 13th uh last year we got
a very Torrid rally here uh into July
all will remember we got a big breakout
I think right around here when uh Nvidia
first told us about their new AI chip
and and how great things were going but
you know all we were able to do is count
one two three four five waves up to
complete intermediate wave three on July
27th and that was followed by an
ABC zigzag corrective wave form to end
intermediate wave four on October 27th
since that time uh we've seen kind of
this exhaustive move here uh this first
initial fora here we thought was topping
here um but we were wrong that was just
minor wave one up the pullback counts
best as minor wave two we get another
five wve move to the upside here and
that counts best as minor wave three and
what's Happening Here is we're now uh
you know testing this trend line this
trend line is the trend line that
connects um uh primary wave four to
intermediate wave four and then we take
the parallel of that trend line and
attach it to uh the the intermediate
wave three high on July 27th and that's
where this comes from and what we've
seen is we've penetrated that and then
moved back below it in three waves a b c
we're counting this uh as as minor wave
four which which means that this last
most recent move up is very likely minor
wave five to complete uh intermediate
wave five which would then complete
primary wave five cycle wave five and by
extension if we're correct super cycle
wave three uh we believe that the market
may have topped at S&P 5111 on uh
February 23rd that was last Thursday's
intraday high now we've seen a little
bit of a pullback but not enough to give
confidence in that count uh one thing
that does give us confidence is this
dramatic uh you know fading in breadth
okay what we're looking at here is the
uh S&P 500 uh issues that are trading
above their 50-day moving average and
that actually peaked in early January
and from that early January High we've
seen nothing but lower highs emerge as
the market has pushed to its new
all-time highs this negative Divergence
in breath kind of confirms the negative
Divergence in the nysse Common Stocks
only ad line that we talked about at the
outset of this discussion and and gives
us a lot of reason to believe that the
market is really just running on fumes
at this point let's take a look at bonus
chart number two uh what we've done here
is we're just really going to take a
look we're going to magnify this this
last move up this this minor wave um
should say intermediate wave five uh and
we're going to take a look at the
subdivisions of that a little bit more
closely so starting from that um uh
October 27th low here we count one two
three four five to complete minor wave
one up minor wave two down one two three
four five and we saw some sub dividing
here one two 3 four five as well to
complete minor wave three now we think
think this is an ABC to complete minor
wave four and this pushup could be minor
wave five to end the entire uh Series
right uh to to top the market at five
degrees of trend at least five degrees
of trend now where we could be wrong is
that uh it's possible minor wave four
ended here okay and if minor wave four
ended here as as per the alternate uh
count line then this is probably uh
minute wave one this is probably minute
wave two this would be minute wave three
minute wave four and we have one more
push higher uh to complete minute wave
five and that would then end minor wave
five intermediate wave five primary wave
five cycle wave five and by extension
super cycle wave three if our counts
correct again we show a serious momentum
Divergence from the beginning of this
rally to where we topped most recently
and and of course as the markets pushed
up even further
uh momentum is really kind of flagged
here and so you know at the end of the
day we think the the best way to
consider uh where we are in the market
is one of these two counts we either
topped Thursday at S&P 5111 or we're
going to top with one more push higher
now what could cause that well there's
some additional economic data coming out
this week uh we will get the uh the pce
data the core pce number is expected to
be a little hotter than uh you know it
has been in recent uh uh months uh
that'll be reported tomorrow morning
let's say we get a little bit better um
uh showing from the pce that could be
what it takes to push things up and to
top in in kind of what I would call the
final kind of uh throwover and and what
we're really looking for I guess to
determine whether or not we've actually
topped is we want to see uh if we push
to a little bit higher high a break down
below about
4920 okay this this prior low right over
here and if we could take that out on a
daily closing basis uh sustainably right
uh and even from current levels we may
you know get a worse number tomorrow
from the PC and it just accelerates
things lower right U we'll have to wait
and see but a break below
4920 would be the initial evidence to
suggest that top is in uh it takes this
little throw over here that we've been
talking about and brings us back into
the channel and and finally you know we
we've marked all of these open chart
gaps okay so they begin at 4981 4907
4802 we think once we break
4920 these should start to fall like
dominoes we'll start to see uh the
market close all of these open chart
gaps all the way down here to 3583 the
open chart Gap that dates all the way
back to uh October 13 um our view is
that this top is going to prove to be a
durable top and that the market should
have uh should begin what we believe
will be a multi-year if not decad long
supercycle degree uh corrective waveform
uh which should coincide with you know a
US recession and Global recession and
and a potential financial crisis uh and
uh we're going to talk about where we
think that financial crisis is emanating
from uh in the newsletter one of the
areas that think uh will will be uh a
clear driver of it is the uh the lack of
liquidity and a lot of people look at
the
Chicago uh fed's uh Financial conditions
index to determine the level of stress
in the financial system but we've found
a couple of cracks that are starting to
develop and we think liquidity is about
a mile wide and inch deep right now and
uh we think that could be what really is
the problem uh for Equity markets going
forward so with that I would like to uh
just uh offer up uh my contact
information if anybody wants to follow
up you can always check out our website
at
www.jw investment.com send us a note if
you like uh you can also follow us on
Twitter at Alpha insights and of course
check out our newsletter on substack
it's huge insights. substack do.com
thanks a lot for watching today and best
of luck
Trading
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