Para Ekonom Proyeksi Surplus Neraca Perdagangan Menyusut di April 2025 | KONTAN News

Summary

Indonesia's trade balance is expected to return to surplus in April 2025, though economists predict a shrinking surplus compared to March 2025. Exports are forecasted to grow annually but decrease monthly due to falling commodity prices, especially coal, CPO, and nickel. Imports are also expected to decline monthly due to weaker industrial activity and the post-Ramadan normalization. Despite easing US-China trade tensions, external pressures on Indonesia's exports persist, with tariffs still higher than before the trade war.

Takeaways

• 😀 Indonesia's trade balance is expected to return to surplus in April 2025.
• 😀 The surplus in Indonesia's trade balance is projected to decrease compared to March 2025's surplus of 4.33 billion USD.
• 😀 Exports in April 2025 are expected to grow 4.6% year-on-year but decline 11.8% month-on-month.
• 😀 The monthly decline in exports is attributed to a continued drop in commodity prices, especially for coal, CPO, and nickel.
• 😀 Imports are expected to grow 5.5% per metric ton but fall 5.8% compared to March 2025 due to the low base from the previous year.
• 😀 Weakening industrial activity and normalization of imports post-Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr are likely contributing factors to the monthly decline in imports.
• 😀 The trade balance surplus is expected to shrink in April 2025 due to a slowdown in both exports and imports, influenced by the long Eid al-Fitr holiday.
• 😀 Exports in April 2025 are anticipated to fall by 9.22% month-on-month, although still showing an annual growth of 7.60%.
• 😀 Imports are expected to contract by 4.83% month-on-month, with an annual growth of 6.57%.
• 😀 External pressures on Indonesian exports persist despite easing trade tensions between the US and China, as the lowered tariffs still remain higher than before the trade war.

Q & A

What is the projected trend for Indonesia's trade balance in April 2025?

Indonesia's trade balance is projected to return to surplus in April 2025, although the surplus is expected to shrink compared to March 2025.

How much was Indonesia's trade balance surplus in March 2025?

In March 2025, Indonesia's trade balance surplus was 4.33 billion US dollars.

What are the expected trends in Indonesia's exports for April 2025?

Indonesia's exports in April 2025 are expected to grow by 4.6% annually, but there is a monthly decline of 11.8% due to moderation in commodity prices, especially coal, CPO, and nickel.

What are the main factors contributing to the decline in exports for April 2025?

The decline in exports for April 2025 is mainly due to the moderation in commodity prices, particularly for coal, CPO, and nickel.

How are imports expected to perform in April 2025?

Imports in April 2025 are expected to grow by 5.5% per metric ton, but contract by 5.8% compared to the previous month, influenced by the low base factor from the previous year.

What factors are expected to drive down monthly imports in April 2025?

Weakening industrial activity and the normalization of imports after Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr are expected to be the main drivers for the decrease in monthly imports.

What impact did the Eid al-Fitr holiday have on export and import activities?

The Eid al-Fitr holiday led to a slowdown in both export and import activities, contributing to a reduction in trade volumes during April 2025.

What is the expected month-on-month change in Indonesia's exports in April 2025 according to Joshua Pardede?

Joshua Pardede predicts that Indonesia's exports will fall by 9.22% month-on-month in April 2025, although they will still show annual growth of 7.60%.

How are Indonesia's imports expected to perform in April 2025 compared to the previous year?

Indonesia's imports are expected to contract by 4.83% month-on-month in April 2025, with an annual growth of 6.57% year-on-year.

What external factor might influence Indonesia's export performance despite lower US tariffs on China?

Despite the lower US tariffs on Chinese products, Indonesia's exports still face external pressure, as the tariffs remain higher than pre-trade war levels, particularly impacting trade with China.