Ekspor Dan Impor Menjadi Penentu Apakah Indonesia Baik-Baik Saja? - BUSINESS TALK (Bag 1)

Summary

The transcript discusses Indonesia's trade balance, highlighting a shift from a deficit in 2011 to a surplus in 2025, accompanied by economic challenges like recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. It addresses the growing trend of trade protectionism, particularly against Indonesia's key exports like nickel and palm oil, and the country's transformation into a producer of high-tech industrial goods. The conversation emphasizes the importance of multilateral trade agreements and Indonesia's efforts to maintain its export momentum despite global economic uncertainty and protectionist pressures.

Takeaways

• 😀 Indonesia's trade balance is a crucial indicator of the country's economic health, with exports and imports playing a major role in determining economic stability.
• 😀 In 2011, Indonesia faced a trade deficit of 3.2 billion USD, where imports exceeded exports, while by 2025, the situation reversed, resulting in a surplus of 21.7 billion USD.
• 😀 Despite achieving a trade surplus, Indonesia experienced an economic recession with two consecutive quarters of negative growth, largely due to pandemic-related restrictions and business disruptions.
• 😀 A significant target for 2021 was a 6.3% growth in non-oil and gas exports, reflecting efforts to boost domestic production and employment opportunities.
• 😀 Indonesia is confronting rising protectionism, with trade barriers being implemented by countries like the European Union and the Philippines targeting Indonesia’s nickel and automotive exports.
• 😀 Indonesia's dependence on imported commodities such as soybeans and beef, especially from Australia, continues to pose challenges in the trade balance and supply chain stability.
• 😀 The Indonesian government aims to position the country as a leader in exporting processed goods and high-tech products, signaling a transition from raw material exports to value-added exports.
• 😀 The ongoing global trade protectionism is linked to the economic slowdown caused by COVID-19, which has disrupted production, distribution, and demand across many sectors.
• 😀 The Minister of Trade emphasized that the challenges Indonesia faces in global trade are not unique and are part of a broader global trend towards protectionism.
• 😀 The United States, under the Biden administration, is expected to return to multilateral trade forums, offering hope for more structured and equitable international trade negotiations, which could benefit countries like Indonesia.

Q & A

What is the significance of the trade balance for Indonesia's economy?

The trade balance is a key indicator of Indonesia's economic health, as it reflects the balance between exports and imports. A surplus suggests a positive economic outlook, while a deficit may indicate economic challenges.

How did Indonesia's trade balance shift from 2011 to 2025?

In 2011, Indonesia experienced a trade deficit of $3.2 billion USD, where imports exceeded exports. By 2025, the trade balance shifted dramatically to a surplus of $21.7 billion USD, reflecting a positive change in the country's economic standing.

Why was Indonesia's trade surplus in 2025 not entirely reassuring for the economy?

Despite the trade surplus, Indonesia faced an economic recession in 2025, with two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This was due to the economic impact of COVID-19 restrictions, leading to reduced imports and limited business activities.

What role does export play in Indonesia's domestic economy?

Exports play a crucial role in Indonesia's economy as they drive domestic production, support job creation, and contribute to economic recovery. The government's target was to grow non-oil and gas exports by 6.3% in 2021.

What challenges does Indonesia face in terms of trade protectionism?

Indonesia is facing increasing trade protectionism, particularly regarding exports like nickel and palm oil. The European Union has strongly opposed Indonesia's nickel export policies, while the Philippines has raised concerns about the country's automotive exports.

How does the global economic slowdown contribute to trade protectionism?

The global economic slowdown, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, has led to reduced demand for goods and disrupted supply chains. In response, countries have turned to protectionism to safeguard their economies, which has made international trade more challenging.

What is Indonesia's approach to overcoming trade protectionism?

Indonesia is focusing on transforming its economy by shifting from being a raw material exporter to a producer of semi-processed and high-tech industrial goods. This strategy aims to increase competitiveness and reduce vulnerability to trade barriers.

How does Indonesia handle trade disputes and international trade agreements?

Indonesia faces challenges in trade disputes, such as the dispute over palm oil and nickel, which are essential to its exports. The government is working on reinforcing multilateral agreements to ensure clarity and fairness in global trade practices.

What is the impact of protectionist measures by major trading partners like the US?

Protectionist measures by major trading partners, such as the United States, can lead to trade disruptions and reduced market access for Indonesian exports. The US has recently blocked certain trade dispute mechanisms, adding uncertainty to global trade.

How is Indonesia benefiting from trade facilitation measures despite global trade tensions?

Indonesia continues to benefit from trade facilitation measures, such as the extension of trade preferences with major partners like the US. These measures help maintain competitive export conditions despite challenges faced by other countries in the region, like Thailand and India.