Beyond the Box Episode 8: The Red Sea & the domino effect of disruptions
Summary
TLDR视频中讨论了近期红海和亚丁湾地区的地缘政治紧张局势,这些紧张局势导致了严重的安全问题,并暂时中断了连接印度洋和地中海的战略通道。自去年12月以来,胡塞武装和也门开始攻击商船,声称这是对哈马斯在对抗以色列战争中的支持。自那时以来,超过一打船只被导弹击中或成为攻击目标,导致该区域的航行暂时停止,数百艘集装箱船被迫改道。国际货币基金组织表示,今年通过该区域的集装箱船数量下降了30%。全球海洋分析公司senetta的首席分析师Peter S指出,地缘政治正在红海展现出其真实面目,目标是集装箱航运,导致汽车工业、零售商以及像法国轮胎制造商米其林这样的公司因运输时间延长和货物缺乏而关闭部分生产线。全球托运人和贸易公司面临的连锁反应是显而易见的,例如,绕过红海和苏伊士运河,通过好望角的亚洲至北欧贸易路线可能会增加大约一百万美元的额外成本。此外,宜家在去年圣诞节前一周就宣布,顾客可能无法在货架上找到他们通常能找到的所有产品。MK公司的船只在12月30日晚上遭到不明物体的袭击,随后在12月31日又发生了两次袭击,其中一次是四艘小船快速接近并与之交火。MK公司在危机管理中采取了立即行动,确保船员安全,并重新建立了通过红海的航行。公司强调,员工的安全和保障是危机期间的首要任务。视频最后强调,保障全球和海运供应链的安全对于世界互联的未来至关重要。
Takeaways
- 🚢 2023年12月,胡塞武装和也门开始攻击商船,声称这是支持哈马斯对抗以色列战争的标志,导致超过12艘船只被击中或被导弹瞄准。
- 🌐 红海和亚丁湾的地缘政治紧张局势导致了严重的安全问题,并暂时中断了印度洋和地中海之间的战略联系。
- 📉 根据国际货币基金组织的数据,今年通过该区域的集装箱船数量下降了30%。
- 🚚 由于运输时间延长,汽车工业和零售商受到严重影响,例如法国轮胎制造商米其林因运输时间延长和货物缺乏而关闭了一些装配线。
- 💰 由于绕道而行,运费自去年12月中旬以来上涨了200%以上,绕行好望角可能增加大约一百万美元的额外成本。
- 🛒 宜家在危机开始一周后就表示,顾客可能无法在货架上找到他们通常能找到的所有产品,预示着产品短缺和成本上升。
- 🛡️ MK公司在危机管理中强调,安全和员工安全是首要任务,并且迅速部署变化以最小化对客户的影响。
- 🔥 MK公司在红海地区的船只遭到攻击时,船员采取了紧急危机管理措施,包括在船上的安全屋避难和执行规避机动。
- 🛳️ 船运公司面临重大运营挑战,而客户则需要支付更高的费用,同时他们的货物被延迟。
- 🌍 全球供应链受到各种危机的冲击,导致商店货架空置和运费飙升,需要通过韧性和灵活性来应对。
- 🛣️ 替代路线的依赖表明了结构性问题,需要通过可行和可扩展的解决方案来解决,例如新的海上路线或多式联运替代方案。
Q & A
在红海和亚丁湾发生的攻击事件对航运业有哪些影响?
-红海和亚丁湾的攻击事件导致了严重的安全问题,暂时中断了印度洋和地中海之间的战略联系。超过一打的商船被击中或被导弹瞄准,导致数百艘集装箱船、散货船和油轮被迫改道,集装箱船通过该区域的数量下降了30%。
为什么说这次危机对全球供应链产生了连锁反应?
-由于红海和亚丁湾的紧张局势,航运时间变长,影响了汽车工业和零售商,导致装配线关闭和货物短缺。例如,法国轮胎制造商米其林因运输时间过长和货物缺乏而关闭了一些装配线。
航运公司如何应对红海和亚丁湾的危机?
-航运公司需要削减从亚洲最远部分到欧洲最北部分的服务,以弥补失去的时间。受影响最严重的是远东到地中海的航线,自去年12月中旬以来,运费上涨了200%以上。
绕过红海和苏伊士运河,选择好望角路线会带来哪些成本?
-绕过红海和苏伊士运河,选择好望角路线会使运输成本增加大约一百万美元,这仅仅是由于运输时间的延长,还不包括其他因素。
IKEA在这次危机中受到了哪些影响?
-IKEA表示,由于这次危机,顾客可能无法在他们的货架上找到通常能找到的所有产品,这仅仅是危机开始一周后的情况。
为什么说保护全球和海上供应链至关重要?
-由于全球化,人们习惯了随时从任何地方获取商品。保护全球和海上供应链对于维护这种生活方式至关重要,因为任何中断都可能对全球经济产生巨大影响。
MK Hangu号船在遭到攻击时,船员是如何反应的?
-MK Hangu号船在遭到攻击时,船员采取了紧急危机管理措施,包括躲藏在船上的安全区域——堡垒,并由专业的安全人员进行应对。美国海军还派出了两架直升机进行拦截。
在危机中,如何平衡员工安全和客户需求?
-在危机中,MK公司将员工的安全和安保作为首要任务。同时,公司通过与客户保持沟通,迅速调整海洋网络,以最小化对运输时间的影响,减少不确定性。
为什么说供应链的脆弱性是一个需要关注的问题?
-供应链的脆弱性意味着任何中断都可能对全球经济产生连锁反应,导致商品和服务价格上涨,经济增长放缓,因此需要通过建立更有弹性和适应性的供应链来解决这一问题。
如何增强供应链的弹性和适应性?
-增强供应链的弹性和适应性可以通过多样化网络、投资基础设施、采用更灵活和敏捷的运营模式、持有一定水平的缓冲库存以及制定应对计划来实现。
这次危机对全球航运业和贸易有哪些长远影响?
-这次危机导致了运费上涨、货物短缺和运输延迟,这些影响可能会持续一段时间。同时,它也提醒了全球航运业和贸易需要建立更加强大和有弹性的供应链。
Outlines
🚢 海上危机:MK船只在红海遇袭
在红海和亚丁湾,由于地缘政治紧张局势,商业船只遭到攻击,导致严重的安全问题和物流中断。MK船只在这一区域遭遇攻击,船员作为平民,面对此类事件感到极度创伤。MK公司的Fleet Management and Technology负责人Leonardo Sanio讲述了这一事件,并强调了保障全球海运供应链的重要性。由于胡塞武装和也门对商船的攻击,红海和亚丁湾的航运被迫中断,导致数百艘货船被迫改道,影响了全球贸易。
🛑 MK船只遇袭的应对与管理
MK船只在红海遭到三次攻击,其中第三次攻击中,四艘小船快速接近MK船只并发生了交火。作为预防措施,船上配备了保安人员,他们与攻击者进行了交火,并得到了美国海军直升机的支援。Leonardo Sanio强调了船员的安全是公司危机管理的首要任务,并介绍了危机发生时公司采取的即时危机管理措施,包括确保船员安全、激活紧急避难所、执行规避机动等。此外,公司还重新规划了航线,以减少对客户的影响,并保持了与客户的沟通。
🌐 全球供应链的脆弱性与未来展望
MK公司的供应链洞察和趋势实践负责人Om Khan分析了全球供应链的脆弱性。她指出,近期的危机显示了一个模式,即触发事件导致货物流动中断,进而产生连锁反应,影响整个供应链网络。这些中断导致运输能力紧张、瓶颈、延误和成本上升,最终影响经济增长和通货膨胀。为了应对这些问题,需要通过多元化网络、投资基础设施、采用灵活和敏捷的运营模式、持有缓冲库存、使用多种运输方式等措施来增强供应链的韧性。Kyra和Morton在节目最后强调,保障全球海运供应链的安全对于我们相互联系的未来至关重要。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Skiffs
💡Merchant Mariners
💡Logistical challenges
💡Geopolitical tensions
💡Container vessels
💡Crisis management
💡Citadel
💡Evasive maneuvers
💡Supply chain resilience
💡Decarbonization efforts
💡Inflation
💡Product shortages
Highlights
四艘小型船只快速接近MK Kango号并与之交火,船员们经历了极其创伤性的事件。
红海和亚丁湾的地缘政治紧张局势导致了严重的安全问题,暂时中断了印度洋和地中海之间的战略联系。
自去年年底以来,胡塞武装和也门开始攻击商船,声称这是对哈马斯在以色列战争中的支持。
今年通过该区域的集装箱船数量下降了30%,国际货币基金组织表示。
地缘政治正在红海显现其影响力,目标是集装箱航运,导致汽车工业和零售商的连锁反应。
法国轮胎制造商米其林因运输时间延长和货物缺乏而关闭了一些生产线。
关闭红海和苏伊士运河对全球贸易和集装箱航运产生了重大影响。
航运公司需要削减从亚洲最远部分到欧洲最北部分的服务,以弥补失去的时间。
自去年12月中旬首次升级以来,远东至地中海的运费率上涨了200%以上。
绕行好望角而非通过苏伊士运河将增加大约一百万美元的燃料成本。
宜家在去年圣诞节前一周就表示,顾客可能无法在货架上找到他们通常能找到的所有产品。
长赐号货轮事件是全球公众和公民的分水岭时刻,因为他们已经习惯了全球化。
保护全球和海上供应链的重要性至关重要。
MK Hangu号在12月30日晚上遭到不明物体撞击,随后在12月31日又发生了两次攻击。
船上的安全专业人员与攻击者交火,美国海军部署了两架直升机拦截了攻击者。
在危机管理中,船员遵循了所有既定程序,大多数船员藏在船上的堡垒中。
船上的船员不是军事训练人员,这样的事件对他们来说极其创伤。
在危机中,员工的安全和保障是首要任务。
公司努力向客户通报情况,并迅速调整海洋网络以最小化影响。
全球供应链受到多次危机的冲击,导致商店货架空荡,运费飙升。
供应链中断的模式包括触发事件、供应链中断、运输能力紧张、成本上升和经济影响。
解决结构性问题需要通过可行和可扩展的解决方案,如新航线或多式联运选择。
依赖全球化和及时制造加剧了这些问题,公司需要通过弹性来解决这些问题。
组织需要采取更灵活和敏捷的运营模式,以快速适应这些变化的情况。
建议制定应对计划,重新安排货物运输或使用替代运输选项以管理中断。
红海的危机就像全球贸易齿轮中的一个扳手,不仅仅是地区紧张,还有对整个供应链的影响。
从这些挑战中学习对于构建更健壮和有弹性的供应链至关重要。
尽管运营是关键部分,但海员的安全仍然是首要任务。
Transcripts
[Music]
there were four Skiffs so four small
boats and they were approaching fast the
M Kango and eventually they engaged the
vessel in a fire exchange I remember
immediately trying to think what the
crew was going through we need to
remember that Merchant Mariners are
civilians
and therefore you know an event like
this is extremely
traumatic this is beyond the Box
integrated Logistics From the Inside
[Music]
Out hi and welcome back to beyond the
box I'm Kyra KCK and I'm Morton Butler
and you just heard the voice of Leonard
sanio head of Fleet Management and
Technology at MK and as you might have
guessed he was talking about an attack
on a MK ship in the Gulf of Aiden yes
the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aiden have
been at the center of logistical
challenges in the last few months
geopolitical tensions have led to
serious security issues and temporarily
disrupted this strategic link between
the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean
at the beginning of December last year
the hoodis and Yemen started attacking
commercial ships claiming it was a sign
of support for Hamas in the war against
Israel since then more than a dozen
ships have either been hit or targeted
by the missiles so sailing through the
area has been temporarily stopped and
hundreds of container vessels have been
rerouted along with bulk carriers and
tankers actually the number of container
vessels crossing the area is now down
30% this year according to the
international monetary fund to
understand what's at stake let's hear
from Peter S chief analyst at the global
ocean analytics company senetta I think
geopolitics is really showing its Oly
face in the Red Sea right now uh it's
targeting container shipping there are a
fair amount of KnockOn effects uh not
only of course due to the longer transit
times that we see right now very much
hitting uh Automotive Industries also
retailers uh we see assembly lines being
close down we see also most recently uh
the French Tire maker Michelin uh
closing down some assembly lines due to
the longer Transit signs and the lack of
cargo right uh so uh KnockOn effects for
Global shippers as well as Carri us and
trade forward us is of course that once
a main artery of global trade and
particularly also for container shipping
like I mean closing Red Sea and and SE
Canal has an impact on many other trades
not directly impacted so if we have a
standard Asia to North Europe trade Lane
that's uh that's two weeks short on
arrival into to Asia we are we're that
far into the crisis now what do carriers
do well they need to uh to to cut short
uh the services that may run from the
far far most part of Asia into the far
uh North part of Europe in order to make
up for the time lost those mostly
impacted like Far East to to
Mediterranean we've seen Freight rates
go up by more than 200% since the middle
of December when we got the first
escalation uh if you compare one classic
North Europe and Asia trade do a round
Voyage avoid uh Red Sea and SE canal and
go around the Cape of Good Hope that
would probably incur around a million
dollars just in fure cost due to the
longer transit times if we assume steady
speed and nothing else than that and of
course it's bad for the climate and it's
bad also for the bottom line I think
already before Christmas last year Ikea
went out saying that you may not find
all the products on our shelves that you
would uh normally find and that was only
one week into this crisis and and you
should expect more of this uh not only
uh shortage on products less to choose
from and of course also uh costs like
this must be pushed on depending on of
course the category of the goods in
question I think uh something like this
and the ever given was a watershed
moment for the general public and and
citizens of the world literally because
they have been accustomed to
globalization they have been getting
goods from everywhere at any given time
so one lesson for sure is the importance
of safeguarding global uh and Maritime
Supply chains is is Paramount
so to sum it up the crisis in the Red
Sea has restricted one of the M trade
arteries distorted the balance between
supply and demand and resulted in
surging Freight rates yeah and that's a
direct consequence of the crisis and I
think another thing worth discussing
from a carrier's point of view is what
does it look like when one of your
vessels is under attack so let's go back
to Leonardo sanio who's played a key
role in the management of this crisis
for Mk on the night of the 30th of
December MK hangu reported being hit by
an unknown object probably around an
hour afterwards a second attack was
attempted but this time the crew did not
report any object eventually landing on
on Deck Of The Vessel or hitting the
vessel and then you need to think of
fast forwarding a few hours later into
the uh 31st of December and that's when
a third attack was attempted and this
time with a different modus operandi in
fact there were four skips so four small
boats and they were approaching fast the
m kangu and eventually they engaged the
vessel in a fire exchange as one of the
precautions on board a vessel when we
decided to reestablish the passages
through the Red Sea we have established
that on board a vessel during the
transit you need to have security
professional so security guards who then
eventually engaged in the fire with with
a houi and uh very rapidly the the US
Navy deployed two helicopters and
eventually the helicopter intercepted
the uh skips I remember immediately
trying to think what the crew was going
through of course there was an immediate
relief knowing that they were safe and
accounted for in this kind of situations
uh we established what we call an
immediate crisis management it was led
by me together with a company security
officer and it was about really
establishing the situation on the vessel
and do anything in our position to
provide them with help we put in place a
number of procedures before
reestablishing the sailing through the
Red Sea area and they follow all of them
to the dot in fact the crew majority of
the crew hid themselves in what we call
a citadel which is a safer place in the
accommodation of the vessel where
there's opportunity for communication
and also isolation and only the
essential crew that is needed to steer
The Vessel was on the bridge uh the
master engaged in evasive maneuvers at
high speed and and all along activated
extremely professional that said we need
to remember that Merchant Mariners are
civilians they're not trained on any
type of military aspect and therefore
you know an event like this is extremely
traumatic and it is something that of
course I personally regret being in
charge of of of the fleet and and being
responsible for our seafare of course it
is something that I hope never
happened and that leaves another
important question how do you balance
the safety of your employees with the
needs of your customers in a situation
like
this being a a company that is Guided by
firm principles and values it was easy
for us to know from the get-go from the
moment we were collecting in the crisis
management team that Safety and Security
our employees was and was going to be
the priority number one throughout the
crisis the crisis is certainly something
that we did not want um we stand behind
a quality product we stand behind a
product that is known for its
reliability we want to be the best in
the market for this and clearly
introducing uncertainty and something
that impacts tremendously schedules of
the vessel transit times environment
also because of the emission additional
emissions that we will have both in
absolute and relative terms is something
that we really did not want for us the
work towards our customer has been first
and foremost to keep them informed and
then very rapidly deploy changes to our
ocean Network minimize the impact on
transit times to minimize the level of
uncertainty and this has been done in a
fantastic record time so I'm really
pleased to see the the the work that has
been put behind and uh um and in that
sense we are also able to provide more
line of sight having established these
contingencies in place and having
reworked our Network so now really the
work is about communicating what this
network is consistent of and how we're
going to basically limit the impact to
their needs during these difficult
times so on the one hand you have the
global shipping companies who are facing
significant operation
challenges and on the other hand the
customers having to foot a larger Bill
while their goods are being delayed at
the same time since the start of the
decade Global Supply chains have been
shaken by many different crises they've
resulted in empty shelves and stores and
surging Freight rates that's right we've
had the covid-19 pandemic who doesn't
remember that the Swiss Canal blockage
the Russia Ukraine war Panama Canal
drought I can just go on and on here for
days and now the crisis in the Red Sea
what a time to be alive yeah sounds so
ing when you think about it but though
they are different we all learn
something from each of these crises and
they follow a little bit of the same
pattern actually if you think about it
yeah and that's exactly why we spoke to
om Khan head of Supply chains insights
and Trends practice at MK she's a
thought leader in supply chain risk and
resilience and she explains exactly why
Supply chains seem so
fragile I believe we can observe a
pattern and an anatomy in all of these
recent crises to varying degrees what we
normally see is a trigger event and that
disrupts the flow of goods it creates
disruptions across an entire supply
network that can create capacity strain
it can create bottlenecks and that leads
to problems like shipping capacity that
then in turn leads to delays increased
costs which have a ripple effect across
all parts of the economy that leads to
increased prices for goods and for
services creates inflationary pressure
it reduces economic growth right now the
only alternative to the S is to re-root
around Africa
dependency on key routs does indicate
structural problems especially where
there's limited Alternatives that
restricts our flexibility we have to
address this through viable and scalable
Solutions now whether that is new sea
rout such as the North Sea rout uh in
Canada or multimodal Alternatives that
remains to be seen the heavy Reliance on
globalization and Just in Time
Manufacturing has exacerbated these
structural problems
when companies keep minimal inventory
and they rely only on timely deliveries
they're vulnerable to any sort of
disruption which is what we've been
seeing recently the way out of that is
through resilience and it's resilience
through a number of channels
diversifying network is absolutely
necessary to mitigate risk but it's also
necessary to invest in infrastructure to
accommodate the growing demands of
global trade and that's especially
important in growth economies and
regions for whom government and
corporate support will be crucial for
realizing their full potential
organizations need to adopt much more
flexibility and agile operating models
in order to adapt quickly to these
changing circumstances organizations
they could also consider holding some
higher levels of inventory buffer
inventory they could think about using
multiple Transportation modes to buffer
against uh disruptions I would also
recommend having contingency plans for
re-rooting shipments or using
alternative transportation options to
help manage disruptions the supply chain
disruptions that we're all facing they
have a huge impact to all of us it's not
just companies we are interconnected
through our supply chains we're Global
so therefore A disruption on one side of
the world can have a massive a ripple
effect to the other side of the world
it's a little bit like uh squeezing a
sausage and the disruption will burst
somewhere in that supply
chain and there you have it Morton the
crisis in the Red Sea is like a wrench
in the gears of global trade absolutely
Kyra it's not just about Regional
tensions this conflict it's about the
Ripple effects on our entire supply
chain and the KnockOn effects to Global
shippers carriers and trade forwarders
as American and petent pointed out true
and learning from these challenges is
crucial to building more robust and
resilient Supply chains for the future
exactly and while that is a key part of
operations the safety of seaf Faris
Remains the top priority as Leonardo
Sano mentioned so as we wrap up this
episode of Beyond The Box the lesson is
clear safeguarding Global and maritine
Supply chains is Paramount for the
world's interconnected future but as the
conflict starts to drag on people are
definitely wondering what does this mean
for a decarbonization efforts what does
this mean for inflation in the economy
what does this mean for product
shortages will we have to queue up for
toilet paper again who's a Negative
Nancy now for more uplifting yet
insightful discussions on the force
shaping our global trade landscape
subscribe to Beyond The Box on Spotify
Apple podcast or wherever you listen to
Beyond The Box until next time this is
Morton and Kyra signing
[Music]
off
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