Ukraine’s First-Ever ATACMS Strike in Russia, Explained | WSJ

Summary

Ukraine's use of long-range NATO missiles, including the ATACMS system, represents a major escalation in the ongoing conflict with Russia. The attack on a Russian ammunition depot, located 75 miles from the Ukrainian border, highlights Kyiv's expanding military capabilities after receiving U.S. approval. This strategic shift aims to pressure Russia by targeting vital military assets deep within its territory. While this move could intensify the war, it also forms part of a broader strategy to force peace negotiations. The geopolitical implications are compounded by the involvement of North Korean forces and the potential shift in U.S. policy with the upcoming presidential election.

Takeaways

• 😀 Ukraine used long-range missiles, provided by the US, to strike a Russian ammunition storage facility near Karachev, marking the first such use of NATO-made arms in the conflict.
• 😀 The missile attack occurred 75 miles from the Ukrainian border and was a significant escalation, as warned by the Kremlin.
• 😀 President Biden gave Ukraine the green light in November to use Western-made long-range weapons, like ATACMS, after months of Ukrainian pleas for greater military support.
• 😀 ATACMS missiles, capable of striking targets up to 190 miles away, could open the door for other powerful weapons like Storm Shadow missiles, which also have a range of about 155 miles.
• 😀 Storm Shadow missiles have been used to target Russian command bunkers, naval headquarters, and ammunition dumps, as well as destroy key bridges in Crimea.
• 😀 Prior to this, Western allies were hesitant to let Ukraine strike deeper into Russia, fearing escalation, but Biden’s decision changed the rules after North Korean troops joined the Russian forces.
• 😀 As the war enters its third year, Russia continues to pressure Ukraine, and Ukraine faces severe economic challenges, exacerbated by Russia’s attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure heading into the winter.
• 😀 The Institute for the Study of War reports that hundreds of Russian military assets are now within Ukraine’s missile strike range, increasing the risk for Russia's strategic positions.
• 😀 Ukraine has also been using long-range drones to target Russian military assets deep inside Russia, including an attack on a major arsenal located nearly 300 miles from the border.
• 😀 Analysts suggest that Ukraine's ability to strike deeper into Russia could force Moscow to seek peace, but there’s no guarantee this will end the war, as Russia continues to press on with its territorial goals.

Q & A

What new weapon system did Ukraine use to strike targets inside Russia?

Ukraine used the ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System), a long-range missile system provided by the U.S., to strike a Russian ammunition storage facility near the city of Karachev.

What is the range of the ATACMS missile system?

The ATACMS missile system has a range of up to 190 miles, allowing Ukraine to target Russian military assets deep inside Russian territory.

How has Russia reacted to Ukraine using long-range missiles on its territory?

Russia has warned that allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range Western weapons crosses a 'red line,' signaling potential escalation in the conflict.

Why did the U.S. initially hesitate to provide long-range weapons to Ukraine?

The U.S. and its allies initially hesitated to provide long-range weapons to Ukraine out of concern that it could lead to a broader escalation of the war, particularly by directly targeting Russian territory.

What prompted the U.S. to change its stance and allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles?

The U.S. decision was influenced by the involvement of North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces, prompting the U.S. to provide Ukraine with more advanced weapons to help counter Russia's military advances.

What other Western weapons could be used by Ukraine, now that long-range missile restrictions have been lifted?

With the removal of restrictions, Ukraine could potentially use other long-range weapons such as British/French Storm Shadow missiles or SCALP missiles, which have a range of up to 155 miles.

How do Storm Shadow missiles compare to ATACMS in terms of range and usage?

Storm Shadow missiles have a range of around 155 miles, slightly shorter than the ATACMS system. They have already been used to target Russian command bunkers, naval headquarters in Crimea, ammunition dumps, and bridges.

What strategic advantage does Ukraine gain by using long-range missiles against Russian military assets?

By using long-range missiles, Ukraine can target valuable Russian military infrastructure, forcing Russia to relocate key assets such as ammunition dumps, command centers, and military units, thereby weakening Russia's overall military capability.

What role does the U.S. presidential election play in the timing of these weapon deliveries to Ukraine?

The U.S. decision to provide long-range missiles appears to be part of a broader strategy to support Ukraine before the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Analysts suggest that President Biden's administration is moving to secure Ukraine's position before a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy if a new administration, such as a potential Trump presidency, were to take office.

Has Ukraine been using other methods to strike Russian targets before receiving long-range missiles?

Yes, before receiving long-range missiles, Ukraine had been utilizing long-range drone programs to strike Russian military targets, including an attack on an arsenal nearly 300 miles from the Ukrainian border.