Supply Chain Congestion: Can This Mess Be Fixed?
Summary
TLDR在这段视频中,查尔斯·阿姆斯特朗,奥林顾问集团的创始合伙人,对当前全球供应链的混乱局面进行了深入分析。他将问题归结为三个主要方面:产能问题、约束问题和需求问题。2020年,由于疫情导致的亚洲生产中断、苏伊士运河阻塞等不可预见事件,供应链受到严重冲击。美国港口的拥堵和劳动力短缺进一步加剧了这一问题。阿姆斯特朗预测,除非避免类似苏伊士运河阻塞这样的重大事件,否则明年的情况可能会与今年相似。他建议,作为托运人,应重视与承运人的关系,提高预测准确性,考虑战略性地避开高峰期,并准备好支付额外费用以确保货物运输。
Takeaways
- 🌐 **全球供应链问题**:当前全球供应链面临的问题可以归结为三个方面:运力问题、限制问题和需求问题。
- 📈 **问题成因**:全球供应链的问题并非一夜间形成,而是由于过去几年中的一系列计划外事件累积而成,如COVID-19导致的亚洲生产中断。
- 🚢 **苏伊士运河事件**:2020年苏伊士运河的堵塞事件对供应链造成了“鞭击效应”,进一步加剧了物流的紧张。
- 🌊 **港口拥堵**:美国港口的拥堵问题,如洛杉矶和长滩港口外排队的船只数量高达70艘,凸显了港口空间和劳动力不足的问题。
- ⏱️ **船只等待时间**:船只可能需要在港口外等待长达21天,这相当于从亚洲到美国的整个航程时间,导致运力进一步减少。
- 🚧 **基础设施限制**:港口的基础设施限制,包括集装箱的装卸、地面处理能力、排水系统等,限制了供应链的效率。
- 💰 **成本上升**:由于运力不足,航运公司可能会收取高峰季节附加费或额外费用,这需要企业在预算中考虑。
- 📊 **需求预测**:良好的需求预测和帮助航运公司提高资产利用率对于获得更多运力至关重要。
- 🔄 **战略规划**:企业可能需要重新评估其供应链策略,包括避免高峰季节的策略性规划,以及提前规划以应对未来的挑战。
- ⏳ **长期挑战**:预计明年的情况可能会重复今年的问题,除非有重大的改进或解决方案出现。
- 🤝 **合作关系**:与航运公司建立良好的合作关系,理解并优化供应链管理,对于应对当前的供应链挑战至关重要。
Q & A
全球供应链目前面临的主要问题是什么?
-全球供应链目前面临的主要问题是产能问题、约束问题和需求问题。这些问题在全球范围内普遍存在。
2020年全球供应链出现问题的原因是什么?
-2020年,由于COVID-19疫情导致亚洲生产中断,随后产生了牛鞭效应。此外,苏伊士运河的堵塞事件进一步加剧了供应链的紧张。
为什么会出现船舶在美国港口外排队等待的情况?
-船舶在美国港口外排队等待是因为港口没有足够的能力处理大量的货物,包括缺乏地面存放集装箱的空间、基础设施不足、劳动力短缺以及国内运输能力有限。
目前洛杉矶和长滩港口外有多少艘船只等待进港?
-根据对话内容,目前有70艘船只在洛杉矶和长滩港口外等待。
船只等待进港对全球供应链有何影响?
-船只长时间等待进港意味着它们的运输周期延长,减少了能够及时返回亚洲装载下一批货物的船只数量,从而减少了供应链的总体容量。
为什么港口的货物处理能力会如此紧张?
-港口的货物处理能力紧张主要是因为缺乏处理和存放集装箱的基础设施,以及缺乏劳动力和分发中心,国内运输也难以满足高峰期的需求。
未来一年全球供应链的状况会有所改善吗?
-根据对话内容,预计明年的状况可能会重复今年的情况,除非避免了类似苏伊士运河堵塞和疫情这样的不可预见事件。
在当前的供应链状况下,托运人应该如何应对?
-托运人应该了解并建立良好的承运人关系,提高预测准确性以帮助承运人提高资产利用率,考虑战略性地避开高峰期,并且准备好支付额外的旺季附加费或溢价。
为什么说当前的供应链问题是‘等待发生的一个问题’?
-这是因为在多个不可预见的事件发生之前,供应链已经存在容量和需求的问题,这些问题只是需要一些触发因素,如疫情和苏伊士运河事件,来加剧并显现出来。
库存水平低和需求高是如何影响供应链的?
-库存水平低意味着供应链需要补充库存以满足市场需求,而高需求则导致供应链压力增大,尤其是在运输、港口处理能力和集装箱供应等方面。
对话中提到的‘牛鞭效应’是什么?
-‘牛鞭效应’是指当供应链的一个环节出现需求波动时,这种波动会沿着供应链向上游放大,导致上游环节面临更大的需求波动和库存波动。
Outlines
😀 全球供应链现状解析
本段落中,主持人Bob与嘉宾Charlie Armstrong讨论了当前全球供应链面临的困境。Charlie将问题归结为三个主要方面:产能问题、限制问题和需求问题。他提到,这些问题并非一夜间形成,而是由于2020年一系列不可预见的事件,如疫情导致的亚洲生产中断,以及苏伊士运河堵塞等,造成了供应链的紧张。此外,港口的拥堵和处理能力的不足进一步加剧了供应链的问题。Charlie还提到,目前大约有70艘船只在美国洛杉矶和长滩港口外等待,这不仅增加了交货的延迟,也减少了可用的运输能力。
😉 应对全球供应链挑战的策略
在第二段落中,Charlie为应对全球供应链的挑战提出了几点建议。首先,他强调了与航运公司保持良好关系的重要性,并建议通过准确预测帮助航运公司提高资产利用率,以获取更多的运输能力。其次,他建议企业重新审视自己的需求和交货时间,可能需要战略性地避开高峰期。最后,他提醒企业要有支付额外费用的准备,因为在运输能力紧张的情况下,可能需要支付高峰季节附加费或溢价以确保货物运输。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡全球供应链
💡容量问题
💡限制问题
💡需求问题
💡意外事件
💡供应商关系
💡港口运力
💡船运时间
💡旺季附加费
💡预测与调整
Highlights
全球供应链面临混乱,存在产能问题、约束问题和需求问题。
2020年的一系列不可预见事件,如COVID-19导致亚洲生产中断,引发了供应链的牛鞭效应。
苏伊士运河事件进一步加剧了供应链的紧张,导致运输网络中的资产失衡。
港口的吞吐量不足,无法应对激增的货物量,导致了持续的供应链瓶颈。
美国港口的拥堵导致船只长时间等待,减少了运输网络的可用运力。
港口的基础设施、劳动力和国内运输能力无法满足高峰期的需求,导致需求在其他区域溢出。
供应链的现有运力因需求增长而不再有效,需要重新评估和调整。
预计明年(2023年)的供应链状况将与今年(2022年)相似,除非没有类似的不可预见事件发生。
库存水平仍然较低,供应链正在努力追赶,导致人为需求的增加。
为了避免高峰期的拥堵,可能需要重新考虑和调整产品的交付时间。
预计在晚春或更晚些时候,供应链的需求才能得到缓解。
货运商需要理解并建立良好的承运人关系,以提高资产利用率。
精准的预测和帮助承运人提高资产周转率,可能有助于获得更多的运力。
可能需要支付额外的高峰季节附加费或溢价,以确保货物能够顺利运输。
供应链的改善需要时间,可能需要等到下一个非高峰期才能看到显著的缓解。
货运商需要在预算中考虑可能的额外费用,以应对供应链的不确定性。
查理·阿姆斯特朗(Charlie Armstrong)提供了对当前供应链状况的深刻见解和实用的建议。
Transcripts
[Music]
it's a mess out there in global supply
chains what is going on
explanations from my guest today charles
armstrong he is founding partner with
orion advisors group hello charlie hey
how you doing bob thanks for joining me
so
answer that question for me would you
please what the heck is going on
well we're talking about the global
supply chain you know i
boil it down bob into we've got three
things we've got a capacity problem
we've got a constraint problem we got a
demand problem
on a global basis
that's that's what we're dealing with
okay it's uh pretty tough how did we
come to this state of affairs
well we didn't get here overnight
we've had a global supply chain and
we've had some capacity constraints in
the past you know typically there was
around the the peak season the fall
season everybody knew it was going to
happen
um
but in 2020 right we had a series of
unplanned events we had covet which shut
down
the production out of asia and then that
created you know kind of a bullwhip
effect once it started to come back up
then the steamship lines were moving the
product to the us we ended up with a
backlog in the u.s about the time we
thought we got through that constraint
the suez canal came around we threw
another
bull whip effect into the into the
network
start to stabilize we came back coved
shut down yang tien
now those are just three examples of
unplanned
unplanned constraints which had residual
impacts on the steamship lines as they
got assets in the u.s and they were out
of balance
and as that went through the process
then the ports
right you know we had a situation where
all of that surge went to the ports and
the ports didn't have the capacity
and so this process just continued on a
rolling basis to the point where these
series of constraints of ports
throughput
and the unplanned events
sort of created it took a utilization
problem to the next level it's a problem
waiting to happen all it needed was a
few more little elements to uh but if i
if i see 65 ships uh birthed offshore of
the ports of la and long beach and i say
oh well the problem is that there's not
enough
space in the ports and not enough labor
in the ports and that's why i have a
feeling i'm oversimplifying the
situation am i not
the number's 70 today by the way okay
i'm sorry 70. so what's a 70 mean well
it's 70 vessels that are not docking
more importantly than that is that 70
vessels that may sit out there for 21
days
that 21 days is equivalent to the entire
trip from asia
which means now not only do we have
vessels with extended lead times in 21
days but we just took capacity out of
the network again because those vessels
will not get back to asia in time
to pick up their next trip
now back to your point so we're so at
the port why are the vessels sitting in
the water they're sitting because not so
much because the cranes can take the
containers off
but there's capacity to ground the ocean
containers
the infrastructure the the drainage
process the the digestion the lack of
labor and distribution centers the
domestic transportation
can't absorb
that demand that peak it's sort of like
you squeeze a balloon the air pops up
someplace and so that one constraint
creates demand in another area and it
can't be absorbed so that's it's again
this goes back to demand
capacity
and constraints and then the uh
the building effect of how existing
capacity is no longer
uh effective right because we lost it
through the utilization demand for ships
demand for port space demand for chassis
demand for containers trailers the whole
thing it's all one big package right
correct yeah so okay
uh
is this gonna happen next year is is
this a long-term thing when are we gonna
see some relief
well
i think the reality of it is is next
year's going to be repeated this year oh
boy that's that's a great thing to hear
well
it's the reality uh
the truth of the matter is is that the
only thing that's going to be different
between
this year and next year
is the unplanned
if we don't have the suez canal we don't
have yang tien we don't have coved
we won't have that
something else well but there could be
something else but it was but if we
don't have those three events which we
haven't had for
what probably the last decade three in a
row
then what we just have to deal with is
the fact that we have this capacity
demand situation inventories are still
low
we're still playing catch up
so we have an artificial demand
that has to be absorbed and that won't
get absorbed until
late spring depending on who you talk to
and right behind late spring comes fall
and it comes the same time every year
here comes another peak season so what's
the fix charlie
well i think if if i'm a shipper i have
to understand those things
understand that
carrier relationships are going to be
critical
the carriers care about asset
utilization so great forecasting helping
them turn their assets will hopefully
get you access to more capacity because
they got to maintain their utilization
secondly i think i take a look at my
demand you know i just mentioned fall
comes the same time every year
if we think next year is going to be a
repeat of this year
plus or minus another suez canal
maybe you need to take a look at your
lead times maybe you need to try and
avoid
those peak periods strategically for a
year
and then the other thing is i think you
need to be prepared to pay some premiums
you know the reality of it is is we're
going to be short on capacity
and that capacity if you want to move
you're going to have to probably pay a
peak season surcharge or a premium to
get onto the vessel so you need to build
that into your budget
charlie i want to thank you so much for
your insights your honest evaluation and
some suggestions as to how this terrible
situation might fix itself at some point
thanks for being with me today bob great
to see you again i've been speaking with
charlie armstrong of orion advisors
group thank you very much for watching
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