BITCOIN NÃO CONSEGUE SUBIR: 58K! E AGORA? - Análise Técnica/Sentimento

Investidor Moderno

2 Sept 202407:49

Summary

TLDRIn this video, the host discusses the recent weak performance of Bitcoin after the monthly close, noting it as an interesting development with significant liquidity captured. Despite a poor weekly close, the host sees a consolidation period with potential for a bullish breakout. They highlight the importance of the $57,000 support level and suggest it as a good entry point for accumulation. The sentiment indicators, including the historically low CVD, signal a bullish divergence, hinting at a significant price increase ahead. The host encourages viewers to accumulate assets at current prices, anticipating a strong market rebound.

Takeaways

📈 The speaker believes Bitcoin is currently weak but sees potential for a breakout upwards, suggesting it's a good time for accumulation.
📉 The monthly close for Bitcoin was the worst since January 2024, but the speaker interprets it as an interesting close that captured liquidity.
🔍 The speaker discusses the weekly chart, indicating a poor close but sees it as a sign of consolidation rather than a bearish trend.
💡 The speaker highlights a significant 'shadow' on the chart, suggesting it represents a large amount of selling at the low point in August, which could be an opportunity.
📊 The speaker notes that the long short rate is still high, indicating that a move above $60,000 could be a positive sign for Bitcoin's short-term trend.
📉 The speaker points out that the market is in a consolidation phase and suggests that a break above $65,000 could lead to a rapid increase in price.
📈 The speaker is optimistic about the potential for a significant upward movement in Bitcoin's price, based on the current market patterns and indicators.
📊 The speaker discusses the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator, which is at a historical low, suggesting a bullish divergence and a good sign for accumulation.
💰 The speaker mentions that there has been significant selling in the market, but the open interest and long short rate need to change for a better short-term outlook.
🌐 The speaker briefly touches on the impact of the US holiday on the market and the potential for the Bitcoin price to react once the markets open.

Q & A

What was the main objective of the video?
-The main objective of the video was to update the situation of Bitcoin, showing what the speaker hopes for in the next hours and days, and discussing their current strategy.
How did the speaker describe the monthly close of Bitcoin?
-The speaker described the monthly close of Bitcoin as interesting, despite it being the worst close in price since January 2024, as it left a significant shadow indicating a large amount of selling at the bottom.
What is the speaker's opinion on the current Bitcoin situation?
-The speaker believes that the current situation is a consolidation phase and that Bitcoin is likely to break upwards soon, considering the continuation pattern of the uptrend.
What is the significance of the shadow left by the monthly close?
-The shadow left by the monthly close signifies a period of despair where most people sold at the bottom, which according to the speaker, indicates a potential area for accumulation.
What does the speaker suggest about the weekly chart of Bitcoin?
-The speaker suggests that the weekly chart shows a poor close, engulfing the previous week's gains, indicating a consolidation phase rather than a sustained uptrend.
What is the speaker's view on the short-term price action of Bitcoin?
-The speaker views the short-term price action as a consolidation with a slight bearish bias, but believes that any drops are opportunities for accumulation.
What is the speaker's stance on the current sentiment indicators?
-The speaker considers the current sentiment indicators, particularly the low CVD, as a bullish divergence, suggesting that the market is setting up for a significant upward movement.
What historical comparison does the speaker make to support their bullish view?
-The speaker compares the current market conditions to the period between March and October 2023, highlighting the increased selling volume without a corresponding drop in price as a sign of accumulation.
What advice does the speaker give regarding accumulation opportunities?
-The speaker advises that the current market conditions present a great opportunity for accumulation, especially as the market consolidates and the CVD continues to drop.
What does the speaker suggest about the institutional orders in the market?
-The speaker notes that there are not many institutional orders, with some significant ones around the $57,000 to $58,000 range, suggesting that these levels could be potential accumulation points.
What is the speaker's outlook for the upcoming week in the markets?
-The speaker anticipates that the upcoming week could be positive, with the potential for the S&P 500 to reach new all-time highs, and advises to watch for the Dollar Index and Bitcoin's reaction to it.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Bitcoin's Monthly Close and Market Analysis

The speaker begins by addressing the Bitcoin investors, noting that the cryptocurrency has closed weakly after a monthly settlement. The focus is on updating the situation and sharing the speaker's strategy for the upcoming hours and days. The discussion includes a review of Bitcoin's monthly close, which is considered interesting despite being the worst price close since January 2024. The speaker highlights a significant 'shadow' created by a large sell-off in August, which is seen as an area where most people sold in desperation. The analysis continues with a look at the weekly and daily charts, with an emphasis on technical analysis and sentiment indicators. The speaker suggests that the current market conditions present a great opportunity for accumulation, especially below the $65,000 mark. The video also mentions a new 'gem' cryptocurrency that has been added to the speaker's investment program, which has seen a significant drop from its highs a few months ago, indicating a good buying opportunity.

05:03

📈 Potential for Bitcoin's Short-Term Breakout

In the second paragraph, the speaker delves into the short-term outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting that the market is in a consolidation phase with a bias towards the downside. However, the speaker believes that the current consolidation is a precursor to a potential breakout upwards. The discussion points to a need for Bitcoin to pass the $60,000 mark again as a positive sign for a short-term upward pivot. The speaker also mentions that the long short rate is still relatively high, indicating that there might be more selling pressure. The speaker advises patience, suggesting that the current market conditions are favorable for long-term accumulation rather than short-term trading. The summary ends with a mention of the speaker's social media, inviting viewers to engage with questions and feedback.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer Bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. In the video, the speaker discusses the current state of Bitcoin's price and market behavior, indicating that it is a central theme as the speaker is providing an analysis and update on its performance.

💡Liquidity

Liquidity in financial markets refers to the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without affecting its price. The script mentions capturing liquidity, suggesting that during a particular market event, there was a significant volume of Bitcoin being traded, which the speaker interprets as a sign of market activity and potential for future price movements.

💡Consolidation

In technical analysis, consolidation refers to a period of price movement where an asset's price is fluctuating within a certain range, indicating indecision in the market. The speaker mentions that Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase, suggesting that after a period of significant price movement, the market is now stable and possibly preparing for the next significant price movement.

💡Accumulation

Accumulation in the context of trading refers to the process where investors buy an asset over time, especially when the price is low, with the expectation that the price will rise in the future. The speaker suggests that the current market conditions present an opportunity for accumulation, implying that now might be a good time to buy Bitcoin before its price increases.

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a method used in finance to forecast the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. The speaker conducts a technical analysis of Bitcoin, examining various time frames and indicators to predict future price movements and to form a strategy.

💡Sentiment

Market sentiment refers to the overall attitude or tone of investors toward a particular asset, which can influence trading decisions. The speaker discusses sentiment indicators, suggesting that the current market sentiment might be overly bearish, which could be a contrarian indicator that the market is due for a bullish turn.

💡Long Short Ratio

The long short ratio is a measure of the relative amount of long positions versus short positions in a market. A high ratio indicates more long positions, which might suggest a bullish sentiment. The speaker mentions the long short ratio, indicating it is still high, which could imply that despite recent selling, there is still a significant number of investors holding long positions.

💡Institutional Orders

Institutional orders refer to large trades placed by institutions, such as banks or hedge funds, which can significantly impact the market. The speaker notes the presence of institutional orders at certain price levels, suggesting that these levels might act as support or resistance and could influence future price movements.

💡Dollar Strength

Dollar strength refers to the value of the US dollar relative to other currencies. The speaker mentions the strength of the dollar, which can affect the price of Bitcoin and other assets because a strong dollar can make Bitcoin more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially impacting demand.

💡Market Holidays

Market holidays are days when financial markets are closed for trading due to public holidays or special observances. The speaker refers to a holiday in the United States, which could affect trading volumes and liquidity in the Bitcoin market, as well as in other financial markets.

💡Continuation Pattern

A continuation pattern in technical analysis is a chart pattern that suggests the current trend will continue. The speaker mentions a pattern of continuation, indicating that the current trend in Bitcoin's price is expected to persist, which is a key part of the speaker's analysis and prediction for future price action.

Highlights

Bitcoin remains weak after the monthly close.

The speaker aims to update the situation and share their strategy for the next hours and days.

The monthly close is considered interesting despite being the worst since January 2024.

A large shadow was left below, indicating a significant sell-off on August 45th, a day of despair.

The weekly close is poor, engulfing the previous week's gains.

The market is in consolidation, with a short-term uptrend attempt that failed to hold above 62k.

The speaker believes the market is in a continuation pattern of an uptrend, suggesting an imminent breakout upwards.

Opportunities for buying may still exist, especially if the price doesn't surpass 65k.

The speaker highlights a significant short-term support level around 57k.

Altcoins are in a buy-one situation, and the speaker suggests accumulating them.

A new gem is added to the members' portfolio, which has dropped significantly from its highs.

The sentiment indicators show a historical low in the CVD, which is a bullish divergence signal.

The speaker compares the current situation to the period between March and October 2023, noting a significant difference in sell-off volumes.

The long short rate is still high, indicating that the market is not yet ready for a short-term uptrend.

Institutional orders are sparse, with significant buying interest around 57k-59k.

The speaker anticipates a positive week ahead for the markets, possibly breaking new highs.

The US dollar continues to rise, which could impact the Bitcoin market if it starts to fall.

The speaker concludes by emphasizing the current market as a comfortable situation for accumulation.

The speaker encourages patience, suggesting that a significant bull run is on the horizon.