ROI AFTER BITCOIN 2024 HALVING (I UNDERESTIMATED IT).

Digital Asset News
17 May 202422:23

Summary

TLDRIn this live stream, the host delves into Bitcoin's Return on Investment (ROI) after a recent surge, comparing it to previous cycles and highlighting the current cycle's performance. They discuss the potential for altcoin season, noting the significant 90-day ROI of top altcoins compared to Bitcoin. The host also touches on negative news, such as credit card and auto loan delinquencies, and the repeal of a bill discouraging banks from providing custodial services for digital assets. Despite these, they highlight positive developments, including Bitcoin ETFs' success, with institutional investors like JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley holding significant stakes, suggesting a bullish outlook for Bitcoin's future.

Takeaways

  • πŸ“ˆ The speaker discusses the recent performance of Bitcoin, highlighting a dip in ROI but still being ahead of schedule compared to previous cycles.
  • πŸŒ• The video script mentions a previous video where the speaker advised taking profits during a green day, sparking controversy among viewers who believed in continued upward momentum.
  • πŸ“Š The script references Ben's website for data on Bitcoin's ROI, showing that as of the date of the video, the ROI for cycle four was 1.01, compared to 7.38 in the previous cycle.
  • πŸ“‰ The speaker notes a trend of diminishing returns across Bitcoin investment cycles, with the first cycle in 2012 showing an ROI of 85.44, and the most recent cycle showing 1.01.
  • πŸš€ The script explores the concept of 'altcoin season', suggesting that if 75% of altcoins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, it may be too late to invest in altcoins as the opportunity may have passed.
  • πŸ“Š The speaker points out that three out of the top five cryptocurrencies with the highest 90-day ROI are meme coins, indicating a significant, albeit potentially volatile, interest in these types of assets.
  • πŸ“‰ The script mentions Chainlink's negative ROI over the last 90 days, but notes a recent partnership with JP Morgan and other financial institutions, suggesting potential for future growth.
  • πŸ—“οΈ The video discusses the historical best days for dollar-cost averaging (DCA) investments, suggesting certain days of the week may be more advantageous based on past price trends.
  • πŸ’³ The script addresses macroeconomic concerns, such as credit card debt and auto loan delinquencies, which have risen to concerning levels and could impact the financial landscape.
  • πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The video mentions a bill (SAB1 121) that discourages banks from providing custodial services for digital assets, which was repealed by the House and Senate, but may face a presidential veto.
  • πŸ“‰ JP Morgan's analysis predicts limited upside for Bitcoin's price in the near term due to lack of positive catalysts and disappearing retail impulse, but the speaker disagrees with this assessment.

Q & A

  • What is the main topic discussed in the video script?

    -The main topic discussed in the video script is the Return on Investment (ROI) for Bitcoin and altcoins, along with the current market trends and some macroeconomic factors affecting the financial landscape.

  • What is the current Bitcoin ROI according to the video?

    -According to the video, the current Bitcoin ROI for cycle four is at 1.01, indicating a 101% move from the halving price.

  • What was the ROI for the previous Bitcoin halving cycle?

    -The ROI for the previous Bitcoin halving cycle (cycle three) was 7.38, which took place from around May 11th or 12th of 2020 until the peak of that cycle.

  • What does the video suggest about taking profits in the cryptocurrency market?

    -The video suggests that while it's important to be aware of taking profits at certain points, it's also crucial to consider the long-term potential and not just focus on short-term gains.

  • What is the current status of altcoin performance compared to Bitcoin according to the Altcoin Season Index?

    -The Altcoin Season Index shows that 29% of the top 50 altcoins have a 90-day ROI greater than Bitcoin, suggesting that altcoins have been outperforming Bitcoin over the past 90 days.

  • What are some of the top-performing altcoins mentioned in the video?

    -Some of the top-performing altcoins mentioned in the video over the last 90 days include Pepe and Dog with Hat (meme coins), Weave, Fetch AI, and Near Protocol.

  • What does the video suggest about the timing of the altcoin season?

    -The video suggests that if 75% of altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over 90 days, it might be too late to consider it the beginning of the altcoin season, as the best opportunities might have already passed.

  • What recent development with Chainlink is mentioned in the video?

    -The video mentions that Chainlink completed a pilot project to accelerate fund tokenization with JP Morgan, Templeton, and BNY Mellon participating, which led to a significant price increase for Chainlink.

  • What macroeconomic factors are discussed in the video that could impact the financial market?

    -The video discusses the high levels of credit card debt and auto loans transitioning to delinquency, which could lead to defaults and potentially impact the financial market negatively.

  • What is the significance of the Bitcoin ETF inflows mentioned in the video?

    -The Bitcoin ETF inflows mentioned in the video indicate a shift in institutional sentiment towards Bitcoin, with significant inflows suggesting increased interest and investment from institutional players.

  • What does the video suggest about the future price of Bitcoin?

    -The video suggests that despite some negative headwinds, there is a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, with traders targeting a price of $74k in the near future due to institutional interest and positive market sentiment.

Outlines

00:00

πŸ“ˆ Bitcoin ROI Analysis and Market Cycles

The speaker begins by discussing the Return on Investment (ROI) for Bitcoin, referencing recent market movements and prior analysis suggesting profit-taking opportunities. They mention a video they made previously, which led to mixed reactions from the audience. The speaker emphasizes the importance of being aware of when to take profits, regardless of market sentiment. They reference Ben's website as a valuable resource for understanding Bitcoin's ROI across different market cycles. The speaker provides a historical perspective on Bitcoin's performance, comparing the current cycle (cycle four) with previous ones, and notes the diminishing returns over time. They also discuss the potential future trajectory of Bitcoin's price based on past market cycles.

05:02

πŸš€ Exploring Altcoin Season and Market Performance

The speaker shifts focus to altcoins, questioning whether the current market is experiencing an 'altcoin season'. They refer to the altcoin season index, which measures the performance of the top 50 altcoins against Bitcoin over a 90-day period. The speaker highlights several altcoins that have significantly outperformed Bitcoin, including meme coins like Pepe and Doge, as well as projects like Fetch AI and Chainlink. They discuss the implications of these outperformances and suggest that the opportunity for altcoin season may have already passed. The speaker also mentions Chainlink's recent collaboration with major financial institutions, which led to a significant price increase, emphasizing the importance of staying informed about project developments.

10:02

πŸ“Š Analyzing Market Trends and DCA Strategies

The speaker delves into dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategies, discussing the historical best days to perform DCA based on asset price trends. They reference data that suggests certain days of the week may be more advantageous for DCA due to lower average prices. The speaker also touches on macroeconomic factors, such as credit card debt and auto loan delinquencies, which could impact the broader economy and potentially the cryptocurrency market. They mention a repealed bill (SAB1 121) that would have required banks to keep digital assets on balance sheet, which could have been detrimental to the growth of the crypto industry. The speaker also discusses the potential for a pocket veto by the President, which could further impact the bill's fate.

15:04

πŸ“‰ Macroeconomic Concerns and Bitcoin Mining Costs

The speaker presents a more cautious view, discussing macroeconomic issues such as credit card debt delinquencies and auto loan defaults, which could signal economic instability. They suggest that these factors might lead to monetary policy changes like money printing or interest rate cuts. The speaker also addresses the potential impact of these macroeconomic trends on the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, they mention a decrease in Bitcoin mining costs due to the exit of inefficient miners, and JP Morgan's limited outlook on Bitcoin's short-term price potential due to perceived headwinds such as a lack of positive catalysts and fading retail interest.

20:06

πŸ’Ή Positive Outlook on Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Adoption

The speaker concludes on a positive note, highlighting the success of Bitcoin ETFs and the bullish sentiment they have generated. They discuss the significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a shift in institutional mindset and a growing interest in Bitcoin. The speaker also mentions the record number of holders reported in the first 13F season, which includes major financial institutions like JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley. They emphasize that despite potential market fluctuations, the overall trajectory of Bitcoin and the growing institutional adoption are promising signs for the future of cryptocurrency.

Mindmap

Keywords

πŸ’‘ROI (Return on Investment)

ROI refers to the ratio of net gain or loss from an investment relative to the original cost of the investment. In the video, the speaker discusses the ROI of Bitcoin, analyzing its performance over different investment cycles to understand its profitability. The script mentions various ROI figures, such as '7.38' and '1.01', to illustrate Bitcoin's historical and current performance.

πŸ’‘Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates without a central bank or single administrator. It is the first and most well-known cryptocurrency. The video's theme revolves around analyzing Bitcoin's investment performance over time, with the speaker discussing its ROI and market behavior, as well as its comparison with other cryptocurrencies or altcoins.

πŸ’‘Altcoin Season

Altcoin Season is a term used within the cryptocurrency community to describe a period when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) outperform Bitcoin in terms of returns. The script discusses whether the current market is experiencing an 'altcoin season', and the speaker uses the Altcoin Season Index to evaluate the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin.

πŸ’‘Meme Coins

Meme Coins are cryptocurrencies that are created as a joke or for fun, often associated with internet memes or trends. In the script, the speaker mentions that several top-performing cryptocurrencies over the last 90 days are 'meme coins', such as Pepe and Dogecoin, indicating their significant returns despite their lighthearted origins.

πŸ’‘Tokenization

Tokenization refers to the process of representing real-world assets in the form of digital tokens on a blockchain. The script discusses a pilot project involving Chainlink, JP Morgan, and other financial institutions to accelerate the tokenization of funds, which aims to standardize the process of disseminating net asset value data across blockchains.

πŸ’‘DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging)

DCA is an investment strategy where an investor consistently buys a fixed dollar amount of a particular investment, regardless of its price. In the video, the speaker mentions the historical best day to DCA for different assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, suggesting that certain days of the week may be more advantageous for this strategy.

πŸ’‘Delinquency

Delinquency in finance refers to the failure to make payments when due. The script mentions that a significant amount of credit card debt and auto loans have transitioned to delinquency, indicating a potential economic issue where individuals are unable to repay their debts, which could have broader implications for the financial market.

πŸ’‘Pocket Veto

A pocket veto occurs when a bill is not signed by the President of the United States within a certain time frame, effectively preventing it from becoming law. The script discusses the potential for a pocket veto regarding a bill (SAB1 121) that discourages banks from providing custodial services for digital assets.

πŸ’‘ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund)

An ETF is a type of investment fund and exchange-traded product, traded on stock exchanges much like individual stocks. The video discusses the performance of Bitcoin ETFs, highlighting their inflows and the number of institutional holders, indicating growing institutional interest and investment in Bitcoin.

πŸ’‘Headwinds

In finance, headwinds refer to factors that oppose a company's or an economy's growth. The script mentions that JP Morgan sees limited upside for Bitcoin's price due to 'headwinds', which they define as a lack of positive catalysts and disappearing retail impulse, suggesting challenges to Bitcoin's price growth.

Highlights

The live stream discusses the ROI (Return on Investment) for Bitcoin after recent market movements.

The presenter mentions that despite some criticism, it's important to consider taking profits at the right time.

The live stream references Ben's website as a source for finding data on Bitcoin's ROI.

The current Bitcoin ROI is compared to previous cycles, showing that we are ahead of schedule.

The presenter discusses the concept of 'altcoin season' and its implications for the cryptocurrency market.

Meme coins like Pepe and Dogecoin have significantly outperformed Bitcoin in the last 90 days.

The presenter warns that if over 75% of altcoins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, it might be too late to invest in altcoins.

Chainlink's recent partnership with JP Morgan and other financial institutions is highlighted as a significant development.

The presenter discusses the importance of staying informed about news and developments in cryptocurrency projects.

The historical best day to perform Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) for Bitcoin and Ethereum is analyzed.

The macroeconomic environment is discussed, with a focus on increasing credit card debt and delinquencies.

A bill (SAB1 121) that could have impacted banks' handling of digital assets is repealed, which may be a loss for the crypto community.

The possibility of a 'pocket veto' by the President on the bill is explained.

Bitcoin mining costs have dropped as inefficient miners exit the market.

JP Morgan's limited outlook for Bitcoin's price in the near term is critiqued by the presenter.

Bitcoin ETFs are reported to have seen significant inflows, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment.

Eric Balchunas, a senior analyst at Bloomberg, comments on the success of Bitcoin ETFs and the bullish outlook for the market.

Morgan Stanley discloses significant holdings in a US spot Bitcoin ETF, adding to the list of major institutions investing in Bitcoin.

Transcripts

play00:01

hello everybody Welcome to the Friday

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live stream there is a ton of stuff to

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go over so we just got to jump right in

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so we can dive through all these things

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so first of all of course like the

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thumbnail and title suggests we're going

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to take a look at the ROI Bitcoin Roi

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after having and in the last 48 72 hours

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or so I did a video where I talked about

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hey it's a green day today time to take

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some profits or time to cash out or time

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to you know take something off the table

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and when I did that video of course I

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got a lot of people going what are you

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uh idiot you shouldn't be taking any

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profits right now we're going to go up

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up to the moon and of course we talk

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about this it's not just about like

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going to the moon or whatnot and of

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course on the video we we take a look at

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the different indicators and know it

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wasn't a great time to take profits but

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we must always be aware that at some

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point we're GNA have to take things off

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the table and somebody put sent this to

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me they go rob don't forget about the uh

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Bitcoin Roi after having I go that's

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pretty interesting I had to take a look

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at that and of course the best place to

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find this is uh Ben's website as I

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totally steal everything from him but uh

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this one this is us right now this is

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cycle four return on investment and we

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can see that of course we just had our

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Bitcoin having about a month ago right

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April 20th coming up on uh what May 17th

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or so today so we can see that the ROI I

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took a little bit of a dip but here we

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are not too bad remember uh we're way

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ahead of schedule in my personal opinion

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as as opposed to like our previous

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havocs but when we take a look at this

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as far as like the and put things into

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context let's take a look at the last

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cycle look at that isn't that a isn't

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that crazy just to think

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about I mean it's just

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unbelievable hold on real

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[Music]

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quick how do

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[Music]

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I there we go

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[Music]

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Jonathan yet again calling

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me every single time all right sorry

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about that so we take a look here and

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we're going into cycle three and look at

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this this Roi and what this we're taking

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a look at is if the ROI value is two

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then Bitcoin has made 100% move from the

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having price right that's just where

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we're at and right now for the having

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cycle four we're at one point right now

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we're at one point 01 but look at this

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in the last cycle not too bad 7.38 and

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look how much time it

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took from the having which I want to say

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was around May 11th May 12th of 2020 all

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the way to the top and this is taking a

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look at if we're taking a look at uh see

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April let's take a look at November I

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like how Ben did this you can either go

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April or November because it was kind of

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like a double top I think Bitcoin max

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out on 63,000 then 67,000 we come over

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here 7.86 so again we got a long way to

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go but look at this this is what's

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interesting take a look at the the the

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cycle before that and we can see this is

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where it kind of gets a little bit

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jumbled let me take out cycle three take

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a look at cycle two look at this one

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this is a beauty this one we had it it

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went from

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2016 look at that July 11

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2016 to the

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ROI to jeez l 3.13 so there is a little

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bit of diminishing returns but again it

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was a long way to go after the having to

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the next one let me put back cycle three

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and now cycle one so here we go cycle

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one was a long time ago we're looking at

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2012 the very first having and then up

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it goes if we can zoom in real quick

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85.44 so yes there are diminishing

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returns but again the time frame the

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time frame we're at this is a very early

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to where're to where we are potentially

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going and then if we extrapolate

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that I always want to take a look at

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just you know where we could go there's

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another one called the bit Bitcoin

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Market cycle bottom Roi so with this

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one again we take a look at cycle five

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which was one we're at right now from

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the from the Bottom I want to say that

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was yeah November 2022 I think Bitcoin

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was around 177,000 correct me in the

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comment section and from that bottom

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17,000 to roughly was it yeah March 12th

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when we hit around 73 or something like

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that 4.5 pretty good but that's from the

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actual Market cycle bottom look at this

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one if we take the last cycle before

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look at these monstrous numbers 20

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Market cycle

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three 95 Market cycle two

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o disgusting

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417 I didn't want to show you this one

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ah 525 so again we can see that there is

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diminishing returns from the cycle

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bottom as well as the ROI and we can't

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really put that into perspective yet

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from the having to the top to the top so

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maybe we're over here but again only

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time will tell as we move forward so

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that takes care of the Bitcoin part

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which second can you know people are

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pretty keen on that but what about

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altcoins is this what they call altcoin

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season right now well there's a pretty

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good uh thing on on the website altcoin

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season index and we can see right

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here I like how how this one was put out

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the amount of the top 50

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altcoins that have a 90day return of

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investment greater than Bitcoin and this

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is just going back 90 days it's updated

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every single day and we can see if you

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want to say this is the altcoin season

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how it's defined on the site is you have

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to be

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75% of the

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altcoins have to be ahead of Bitcoin

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meaning they have to outperform bitcoin

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not just a couple of days not just a

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couple of weeks but 90 days moving

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forward and we can see that right now as

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it pertains Bitcoin Roi 29% over the

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last 90 days pretty good but look at the

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ones that have crushed it and we talked

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about this on NFA live yesterday the

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first two that have abolutely destroyed

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in the last 90 days are mem coins Pepe

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and dog with hat I know it pisses people

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off at some point unless they invested

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into it then all of a sudden they're

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fine with the meme coins but then the

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next part our weave which is essentially

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a dpin play for uh blockchain saving or

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uh file file saving uh within the

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blockchain fetch ai ai play ton coin

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which is through telegram then look at

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this the next one

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a meme coin so out of the top five three

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of those are meme coins and then near

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protocol look at that 142% Phantom all

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right

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Dogecoin again mcoin the first one

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render AI play Bitcoin cash crazy B&B

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and everybody's favorite I shouldn't say

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everybody's favorite but salana as good

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as it's been over 90 days it's only been

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up 54% but you've still outperformed

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Bitcoin but the thing I will say about

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this as far as like altcoins and where

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we're at when we're in altcoin season

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meaning that over 90 days they've

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outperformed Bitcoin what does that tell

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you it tells you that if you're on that

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side and you're like hey it's allcoin

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season because over 90 days they've

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outperformed Bitcoin it's too late you

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kind of miss your opportunity in my

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personal opinion I mean I could be wrong

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here but I don't want to be on the

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sidelines all the time now my portfolio

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is 75% Bitcoin but I'm not going to

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stand around

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and just say well maybe I could be wrong

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so far it's been okay for me since 2022

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dollar cost averaging but you never can

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tell and you never can tell when things

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are going to really pop off and you

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really never can tell what's going to

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happen in with altcoins because as good

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as things are I wanted to direct your

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attention to one one particular altcoin

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in

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this outing that we

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have chain link you notice one thing

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about chain link it's down 18%

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over last 90 days it's a negative Roi 90

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days negative why is that was there a

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hack did somebody come in and say hey

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we're g to change the

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whole the whole protocol we're g to make

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things totally different or we've been

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found out that we're actually a total

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scam no nothing's really it hasn't

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really happened at all but today there

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was a big pump and we're like wonder

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what happened this is what happened and

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this is why like you can never really

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understand like really what's going on

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behind the scenes with a lot of these

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projects and people will say well you

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know I believe in this I believe in that

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but really what it comes down to

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is is you gotta like what you see and

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you got to make sure that you're up on

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it on all the news what's happening

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because look at this one chain link

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completes a pilot to accelerate fund

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tokenization with JP Morgan Templeton

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bny melon participating let me say it

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again real world assets fund

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tokenization JP Morgan the largest bank

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largest bank in the United States I

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think it's the largest bank in the world

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timilon b&y melon one of the oldest

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Banks the United States I'm not sure

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it's the world they're participating in

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link gain 7% now I think it's over 10

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per. here's what happened the dtcc

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depository trust and Clearing

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Corporation world's largest security

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settlement system completed a pilot

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project with chain link and multiple us

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financial institutions help the aim is

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to help accelerate the tokenization of

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funds like we're always talking about

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real world assets tokenization the

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purpose of the project called smartnav

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was to establish a standardized process

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to bring and disseminate net asset value

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data of funds across virtually any

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private or public blockchains using

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chain link so again when we come back

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here and we're like oh well it's not

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allcoin season yet I think I think if

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you get there it's too late Now's the

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Time to actually do some things but

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that's just how I see things let me know

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what you think about that in the comment

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section and then also

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um I dollar crost average I don't know

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what you do I can't give you a financial

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advice not a financial

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adviser just some guy in front of a

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really nice green screen so there was

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this part that I I found interesting uh

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the historical best day to DCA and it's

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like everything that you ever want all

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the different assets that are out there

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and how he breaks it down is it's using

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the default 7day uh simple moving

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average a value of one on Sunday would

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indicate that the price on Sunday is on

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average 1% higher than the average price

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of the past seven days therefore the day

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that has the lowest value in the chart

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is the best day of the week the DCA so

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taking a look at percentages and it's

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saying

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that

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Bitcoin average extension

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1.3 so the the historical best data DCA

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is right there and then also there

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here's one on

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ethereum that we can see here average

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extension let me see make

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sure okay a value of one on Sunday would

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indicate the price on Sunday is on

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average 1% higher than the average of

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the price the seven days so on Sunday

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it's not a good day so you want to pick

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the low days obviously so ethereum could

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be Friday and there's a whole host of

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things I can't show them all to you but

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if you want to find that out there's a

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link in the description you can check

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out Ben's site so just thought it was

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interesting how that was all pulled

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together so I'm feeling pretty good

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about it but I can't give you everything

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that's great news I got to kind of rein

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everything back and give you some bad

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news so here you go uh defaults this is

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from the uh Kishi

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letter and apparently in the macro

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environment maybe you're feeling this as

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well nearly nine there's a huge amount

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of credit card debt and now it's as I

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was under the impression I thought it

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was right under a trillion now it's 1.12

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trillion nearly about we'll say 10%

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nearly 10% okay nearly 9% of the 1.12

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trillion credit card debt has

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transitioned to delinquency meaning

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people are not paying their credit cards

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that's very bad because it's not like

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they have super low interest rates this

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was a status that was reported in q1 of

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2024 and it's coming out recently that's

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100 billion of credit card debt all also

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8% I didn't know even know this 8% of

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the 1.62 trillion of auto loans

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transition to delinquency so again you

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got people not paying their credit cards

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and not paying their cars what happens

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next they go into default if they that

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happens people gets their cars picked up

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which is a really bad idea for everybody

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involved especially because no one's

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making money people can't get to work

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it's just a thing that I I see that uh

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could really snowball into something bad

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now we'll see how it all works out but

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uh this is why money Printing and

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probably rate cuts are on the horizon

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but I could be wrong so uh this is not

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positive but I had to bring it to your

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attention because if I give you

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everybody like the moon boy stuff and

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people go crazy so there's that part

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also here's another thing uh there was a

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bill that was shot down actually it was

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repealed and it went through House of

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Representatives here in the United

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States we had two Chambers House of

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Representatives then it goes to the

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Senate then it goes to the president

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United States to to either sign or

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veto and the bill sab1 121 which

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discourages banks from providing

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custodial services

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for digital

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assets and the reason why it was bad it

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required them to keep those assets on

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balance on balance versus off balance as

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a little refresher like I said in my the

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X poost when you have something off

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balance it means that assets are not

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reflected in the company's financial

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statements and are not used by the

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company to impact the company's ratios

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or leverage meaning they can't use it

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that was the problem with FTX and

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Celsius and void

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and bl is they held them on

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balance and that's what this law was

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repealed by the House of Representatives

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and by the Senate now the question

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is will it actually be vetoed because

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there was a letter that was put out by

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the president of United States saying I

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will veto this bill if it gets through

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the Senate so we'll see and Elanor trr

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fantastic reporter here she says that

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there's a thing called a pocket veto

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I've never heard of this in my life

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but this is actually what could happen I

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found this fascinating that they could

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do this

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stuff pocket

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veto which I've seemen to people mention

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is what happens next to sa

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121 from the time of Bill reaches his

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desk meaning has to go through House of

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Representatives Senate then to his desk

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president has 10 days excluding Sundays

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to either sign or veto it if he does

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nothing in Congress is in session the

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bill will pass into law without a

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signature but if he does nothing when

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Congress is not in session something

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called the pocket veto can occur because

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Congress is not in session to receive

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the sign of V this means the president

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can basically give his stamp of

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disapproval and pin the bill resolution

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on not becoming law and he can pin it on

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Congress and say ah they screwed

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up so what does that mean well Congress

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will be on break starting May 2 7th to

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June 3rd which could fall during that

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10-day window but even though Congress

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is scheduled be in recess they can still

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be in something called a proor session

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which will allow the house to receive

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Biden's either sign or vetto Bill and

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rent the so-called pocket vetto so don't

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be surprised if this gets shot down

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President Biden already said he was

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going to shoot it down and maybe he

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could do the pocket veto as elener comes

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out here so that's not great that's

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actually a loss for us be a win for

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Elizabeth Warren the ultimate crypto

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Karen but whatever so there we are

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democracy in

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action and then lastly as far as the

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negative news uh which I don't think is

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that bad Bitcoin mining cost drops the

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45k as inefficient miners exit and JP

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Morgan who was just revealed to have

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participated in the uh Bitcoin ETF the

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bank sees limited upside for the Bitcoin

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price in the near term due to a number

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of head I'm going to skip all this

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because it's kind of boring this is what

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their headwinds are they said look uh

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there's two headwinds which is pretty

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weak what they said lack of positive

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catalysts and disappearing retail

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impulse weak sauce so the thing is with

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this as far as positive Catalyst we

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actually laid these out in a video we

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did three or four days ago it's called

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the four Catalyst really comes down to

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the M2 money

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supply PR go bur it comes down to R cuts

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which at some Point's going to happen

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which we really talk about that we talk

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about the presidency which I don't

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really care who wins as long as we get

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out of the way because the market

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doesn't like volatility they don't like

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indecision so they just want to get it

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and then after that it'll probably do

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pretty well re reallocation of funds and

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then another one called

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13f and we'll get to that in a second so

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there's a link in description you can

play17:47

check that video out but it's basic

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stuff I mean JP Morgan can say it's

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negative I don't really find it negative

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okay so that's the negative

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part let's close this out out on a high

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note Bitcoin Traders are targeted 74k

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next week as a spot ETFs log four days

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of inflows if you don't know and the

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whole article is great but I'm not going

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to read it pretty much what they say is

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because there's so much inflows they the

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institutional mindset has shifted the

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sentiment has shifted and we're going to

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see 74,000 which would be an all-time

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high coming up next week and uh well

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they are right on that point we've had

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four days of inflows this is from he

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apollo. if you're not looking at the

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screen I can just show you just tell you

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that there are four positive days of

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Bitcoin ETF flows we're not at the

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all-time high for total net Flows at

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2176 I think we were beaten out over

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here around 220 yeah 22.3 on April 10th

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but we're pretty darn close and that

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means we have

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gone north of what happened on May 1

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when we had almost negative

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10,000 uh which was pretty bad but of

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course if we have institutions coming in

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that means more money's coming in

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everybody's happy so that's great on top

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of that there was another another chart

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for Bitcoin days in profit because we've

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been hovering around the all-time highs

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yeah we're a little bit low I I got you

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but if we take a look here April 24th oh

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it doesn't go through we're still pretty

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good as far as days and profit as

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opposed to a lot of the altcoins that

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are out there so I like to see that and

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then also Eric balunis says it perfectly

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and Eric senior Analyst at Bloomberg he

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says look you guys don't understand just

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how well the ETF actually did ibit

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Bitcoin ETF provider ended up with 414

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holders in the first 13f season the 13f

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of course when they actually have to

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file file with the SEC these

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institutions and say yeah we hold it and

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that's what's

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happening 414 holders in the first 13f

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season which is mind-boggling it blows

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away any record that's been out there so

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there's a lot of big players JP Morgan

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one of them who said we got to get in on

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this and they did it and now they have

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to file and now it's public and now

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we're like hey and it's just been coming

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out and we'll get to all those in a

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second even having 20 holders as a

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newborn is a BFD it's a big effing deal

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highly rare here's a look at how the

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Bitcoin ETFs compared to other ETFs

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launch in January and you can see it's

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almost laughable I mean

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look people have poo pooed Bitcoin

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forever they've talked about ETFs

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they've talked about the nonsense that

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is digital assets and now here we are

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it's one of the best performing ETFs of

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all time so I think that's pretty good

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also a bit why C CIO says Bitcoin ETFs

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are huge success and 13 FS make him

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incredibly bullish like we just talked

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about and to just to partner off that I

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just saw this today this was yesterday

play20:47

Morgan

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Stanley discloses the US spot Bitcoin

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ETF Holdings worth over a quarter of a

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billion dollars in filings not bad so

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because of that

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I had to add them to my

play21:02

list of the Bitcoin ETF reveal and as a

play21:06

as a reminder there's a link in the

play21:07

description and this is all

play21:10

the the high value interesting

play21:14

institutions that have gotten into this

play21:16

ETF Booth Bay 150 million Millennium

play21:19

management discloses two

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billion Pine Ridge advisors 205 million

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state of Wisconsin investment board not

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bad 100 million Switzerland Bank Bank of

play21:32

Montreal Bracebridge with 262 million JP

play21:36

Morgan

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Rothchild

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Millions ah rubric Capital 60 million

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and wills Fargo as well then of course

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now we have Morgan Stanley with 270

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million in filing so

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again I know I sound pretty bullish

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today but there's a good reason for that

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things are moving in the right direction

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I couldn't be happier does that mean

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that we're gonna go straight up yeah

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probably not but I tell you I tell you I

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still think we're in the right place at

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the right time and we're early don't let

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anybody tell you differently that's it

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for today so look I know it's a little

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bit long 22 minutes that's it for today

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so if you like today's video give it a

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thumbs up consider subscribing

play22:17

everything we talk about his time

play22:18

sensitive

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