Elon Musk Predicts AGI, Self-driving, Unlimited Energy, Robots Coming SOON

Summary

Elon Musk discusses the exponential growth of AI compute power, predicting full self-driving capabilities soon. He notes massive productivity increases from AI across industries, transforming jobs rather than eliminating them. Musk highlights the ensuing hardware shortages, from AI chips to electricity, estimating AI compute doubles every 6 months. Despite techno-optimism about impending innovations like humanoid robots, Musk admits past angst about AI apocalypse risks, reasoning that he'd nonetheless prefer to witness the advent of advanced AI, come what may.

Takeaways

• 🚗 Elon Musk considera que la conducción autónoma total está muy cerca, lo que podría cambiar significativamente el uso de los vehículos.
• 📈 Musk nunca ha visto una tecnología avanzar tan rápidamente como la computación de IA, con una capacidad que aumenta diez veces cada seis meses.
• 💾 La rápida evolución de la IA está impulsada principalmente por los chips de Nvidia, lo que ha llevado a un aumento significativo en el valor de mercado de la compañía.
• 🔋 Se prevé una posible escasez de electricidad debido al enorme consumo energético necesario para alimentar la creciente infraestructura de computación de IA.
• 🤖 Tesla está desarrollando robots humanoides, como el programa Optimus, que podrían realizar casi cualquier tarea humana.
• 🌐 La IA incrementará drásticamente la productividad en todos los campos, desde el trabajo manual hasta la logística de la cadena de suministro.
• 🔍 Musk expresa preocupación por el futuro de la IA, cuestionando si eventualmente podría superar a la humanidad en inteligencia y dominio.
• 💡 La industria automotriz está evolucionando hacia sistemas de 48 voltios para mejorar la eficiencia y reducir el uso de cobre en los vehículos.
• ⚡ La demanda de transformadores de reducción de tensión está aumentando, ya que son cruciales para alimentar los chips de IA con la electricidad adecuada.
• 🔄 Musk sugiere que la revolución tecnológica de la IA es la más significativa que se pueda imaginar, posiblemente llevando a la humanidad a una nueva era.

Q & A

¿Cuándo cree Elon Musk que los coches serán totalmente autónomos?

Elon Musk dijo que los coches estarán muy cerca de ser totalmente autónomos, capaces de llevarlo al aeropuerto sin ninguna intervención humana, usando solo redes neuronales digitales.

¿Por qué los chips de IA están creciendo tan rápido en capacidad computacional?

Musk dijo que nunca había visto una tecnología avanzar más rápido. La capacidad computacional de los chips de IA parece estar aumentando en un factor de 10 cada 6 meses, aunque esto obviamente no puede continuar para siempre.

¿Cómo ayudará la IA a aumentar la productividad?

Musk dijo que la IA aumentará dramáticamente la productividad en todos los campos, desde el trabajo manual hasta la logística de la cadena de suministro. Los bots de chat sofisticados ya pueden responder preguntas complejas para el servicio al cliente.

¿Ve Elon Musk un posible apocalipsis de la IA?

Sí. Dijo que le había deprimido el pensar que la IA podría tomar el control y hacernos obsoletos. Pero al final decidió que prefería estar vivo para presenciar un posible apocalipsis de IA.

¿Cuál cree Musk que será la próxima escasez para alimentar la IA?

Predijo que después de los chips y transformadores reductores de voltaje, lo siguiente será la electricidad. No habrá suficiente para alimentar todos los chips de IA en 2025.

¿Cómo cambiará la IA la industria automotriz?

La conducción autónoma aumentará drásticamente la utilidad de los vehículos. En lugar del 10% de uso actual, sería más como 50-60% al funcionar como robotaxis. Esto es un cambio sísmico.

¿Está Musk preocupado por cómo los humanos tratan a los robots?

Sí. Dijo medio en broma que espera que los robots sean amables con nosotros. Pero se preocupa dado cómo a menudo maltratamos a los robots de demostración actuales.

¿Podría Tesla ayudar a evitar una escasez de electricidad para chips de IA?

Sí. Tesla se está convirtiendo en una gran empresa de energía además de autos. Su infraestructura de carga, baterías y paneles solares podría ayudar a alimentar la demanda de IA.

¿Ve Musk algún final a las mejoras exponenciales en IA?

No. Dijo que obviamente no puede continuar creciendo a este ritmo para siempre. Pero no dio señales de una ralentización cercana en su capacidad de cómputo.

En general, ¿es Musk optimista o pesimista sobre el futuro de la IA?

Tiene sentimientos encontrados, pero en general sigue siendo optimista. Dijo que estamos al borde de la mayor revolución tecnológica, y se siente emocionado de presenciarlo.

Outlines

00:00

😊 Elon habla sobre el coche autónomo completo

Elon dice que los coches autónomos completos están muy cerca. Explica que actualmente los coches sólo se usan alrededor del 10% del tiempo, pero cuando sean autónomos, se podrían usar como taxis, aumentando su utilidad por un factor de 5.

05:02

😮 La IA está creciendo rápidamente

Elon nunca ha visto una tecnología avanzar tan rápido como la capacidad informática de IA, que está creciendo 10 veces cada 6 meses. Predice que pronto habrá escasez de transformadores reductores de voltaje necesarios para alimentar los chips de IA.

10:02

😊 Beneficios de la IA, pero también riesgos

Elon dice que la productividad aumentará drásticamente gracias a la IA, pero le preocupa que la IA general pueda dominar a los humanos. Aun así, prefiere estar vivo para presenciarlo.

15:04

🔋 Posible escasez de electricidad

Debido a la enorme demanda de los chips de IA, Elon predice que pronto podría haber escasez de electricidad para alimentarlos. Esto beneficiaría a Tesla como gran proveedor de energía.

Keywords

💡inteligencia artificial

Elon Musk habla mucho sobre el rápido progreso de la inteligencia artificial y cómo va a transformar al mundo en varias maneras, especialmente con los coches autónomos. Por ejemplo, dice que los coches de Tesla ahora pueden conducir de forma completamente autónoma en ciertas situaciones usando redes neuronales digitales.

💡coches autónomos

Musk predice que los coches serán completamente autónomos muy pronto. Esto aumentará mucho la utilidad de los coches, ya que podrán conducir ellos mismos para hacer recados, por ejemplo.

💡escasez de chips

Ha habido una gran escasez de chips para IA recientemente. Musk predice que después habrá escasez de transformadores reductores de voltaje y luego de electricidad para alimentar todos los chips de IA.

💡progreso exponencial

Según Musk, la capacidad de computación de IA está creciendo a un ritmo exponencial, duplicándose cada 6 meses. Obviamente esto no puede continuar indefinidamente.

💡productividad

Musk dice que la IA aumentará la productividad en todos los campos, desde trabajo manual hasta logística.

💡robots

Musk habla sobre el desarrollo de robots humanoides avanzados, como el proyecto Optimus de Tesla. Espera que los robots sean amables con los humanos.

💡apocalipsis de IA

Aunque está entusiasmado con la IA, Musk ha expresado preocupaciones sobre un posible 'apocalipsis de IA' si se vuelve superinteligente y escapa de nuestro control.

💡revolución tecnológica

Musk dice que estamos al borde de la revolución tecnológica más grande que haya existido, impulsada por el rápido progreso de la IA.

💡conducción autónoma

Un tema central del video es la conducción autónoma. Musk predice que los coches de Tesla pronto podrán conducir de forma completamente autónoma de punto A a punto B sin intervención humana.

💡redes neuronales

Las redes neuronales son una tecnología clave que está impulsando los avances de la IA. Musk explica cómo los coches autónomos de Tesla usan redes neuronales para interpretar su entorno y conducir solos.

Highlights

Self-driving cars are extremely close to being fully autonomous

Self-driving technology will profoundly change the world

AI compute is advancing faster than any technology ever

Nvidia has become massively valuable due to its AI chips

There is an ongoing AI chip rush bigger than any gold rush

Tesla is developing humanoid robots capable of doing almost anything humans can

AI will massively boost productivity across every field

We are at the edge of the biggest technological revolution ever

AI growth cannot continue exponentially forever

The next shortage after chips will be electricity to power AI systems

Higher voltage systems will reduce copper needs in vehicles

AI risks depressing Musk, but he'd rather see the AI apocalypse than not

The AI chip rush is bigger than any past gold rush

Musk predicts a shortage of step-down transformers to power AI chips

Infrastructure must keep pace with exponential technological advances

Transcripts

welcome big hand to Elon

Musk thank you thank oh how are you good

fantastic we have we have had two we

have two days of AI and geni and

whatsoever but you look real my head is

very big in the screen added reality too

I suppose we have had so much talk about

AI in these two days so we need your

opinion what do you think about the next

5 to 10 years on AI please give us a

artificial insemination elligence what

do you think about that

okay but try try audience I say um yes

artificial intelligence is is is

certainly going to profoundly change the

world one of the most significant ways

is self-driving so we've been putting a

lot of effort into self-driving

technology for cars you you don't see it

quite as much in Europe because we we

first have to make it work in the US

before we increase the complexity of TR

of make it elsewhere in the world but I

think we're quite close to having the

car be fully autonomous so for example

like right now I could I'm in Austin and

if I went to drive say to the airport

the car could take me to the airport

with no interventions using and all it's

using are digital neural Nets other

words artificial intelligence and ceras

so there's no lar radar nothing and in

fact if you think about how humans drive

cars humans are biological neural Nets

and we use eyes so it's the eyes and

biological neur Nets the analog is

digital the analog for digital is

cameras and digital neural Nets this is

working remarkably well the it has been

quite difficult to do this because turns

out that in order to use in order for

this to work the car has to really be

quite fully intelligent really as as a

subset for example has to learn how to

read everything and and and how to

assess intention among drivers and

pedestrians so it's it's you're end up

creating sort of a baby artificial

general intelligence to solve this but

this will obviously be extremely

profound and OB I'm talking about

Automotive here I'll get into the

broader question in a minute but the the

average use of a passenger vehicle is

only about 10 hours per week out of

hours the point at which it is

autonomous I think You' see probably a

third of the hours being used because it

would be like a taxi maybe my guess is

like 50 to 60 hours which means that the

utility of a passenger vehicle would

increase by uh a factor of five and this

this is gigantic but we'll see so that

that's the one motive then there's what

people have think have certainly

experienced online where you can ask it

a question and ask for an essay or a

picture or to understand a picture and

that is progressing rapidly what what

I'm seeing in terms of AI compute is

I've never seen any technology Advance

faster than this the the artificial

intelligence compute coming online

appears to be increasing by a factor of

10 every 6 months like obviously that

cannot continue at at such a high rate

for for ever or or will exceed the mass

of the universe but I've never seen

anything like it and this is why you see

nvidia's market cap being so gigantic CU

they currently have the best neural net

chips I mean I think the didn't nvidia's

market cap exceed the GDP of Canada or

something recently anyway was quite high

so yeah you know it may go higher who

knows chip Rush is bigger than any Gold

Rush that has ever existed so and then

there will also be robots like humanoid

humanoid robots not not just sort

industrial industrial industrial robots

are of course familiar with you use

industrial robots we use industrial

robots everyone does but they're

programmed explicitly and they they

don't walk around but Tesla with for

example the Optimus program is making a

humanoid robot that is capable of doing

almost anything a human can do um I mean

I hope I just hope the the robots are

nice to us you know we hope so we hope

so too youon that the robots will be

nice to us and maybe let's say in this

regard because you are working on what

can we expect of let's say support which

is going to come maybe also a little bit

with regard to production because in the

BOS connected world we were also

discussing application of AI gen AI into

production in order to Bo productivity

maybe a couple of thoughts on this one

too well the plus side of AI is that I

think productivity will increase

dramatically so across every field

whether it be manual labor to supply

chain Logistics there's already a lot of

movement to use chatbots like

sophisticated chatbots for customer

service for example where they can

answer quite quite complex questions

already but I mean I think we really are

on the edge of probably the biggest

technology Revolution that has ever

existed you know there's supposedly at

sort of a Chinese curse may you live in

interesting times Well we live in the

most interesting of times the most most

interesting and for for a while I was a

little bit it was making me bit a bit

depressed frankly cuz I was like well

will we be will they take over will we

be useless but then the way that I

reconciled myself to this question was

would I rather be alive to see AI

apocalypse or not I'm like I guess I'd

like to see this

uh you know that's a good thought going

to be boring that's a good thought

because you mentioned every six months

that's an exponential curve right

exponential curves are beautiful but

there's kind of a question where does it

ever end right do you see any end yet or

will it go on for 3 four five years like

this because then we talk 100 folds

right thousand folds of time yeah that's

why I said obviously yeah I mean you you

can't you can't grow at that rate

without quickly exceeding the mass of

the universe so clearly it's going to

hit some constraints the constraints

that AI compute and very predictive I've

actually predicted this over a year ago

so over a year ago the shortage was

chips neural net chips then it was very

easy predict that the next shortage will

be voltage step down Transformers so

it's you you've got to feed the power to

these things so if you've got 100 to 300

Kilts coming out of a utility and it's

got to step all the way down to you know

6 volts that's a lot of stepping down so

now we're in step down and this is my

not that funny joke which is that they

need Transformers to run Transformers

cuz you know the AI is like there's this

thing called a transformer in AI it's a

it's a neur a neural I don't know it's a

combination of sort of neural Nets and

they're running out of Transformers to R

Transformers then the next shortage will

be electricity so I think next year

you'll see the electricity that they

just can't find enough electricity run

all the chips I mean during the chip

crisis we certainly all did have many

contacts fortunately we were able to

master it together of course we all

would like uh to avoid a second chip

crisis but with regard to your to your

comment on on power demand we all know

today vehicles have 3 uh to 4 KW power

demand for the peripherals but this is

continuously going up and Tesla has

recently launched the Cyber truck which

I believe is mostly coming with 48 volt

do you see this as a let's say further

disruption of automotive industry

another technology change within

Automotive yeah I I think you know the

automotive industry has been living with

12 volts for a very long time a century

roughly I think it it started off as six

bolts and then they needed a a more

powerful starter motor and then they

doubled it to 12 volts although it's

it's actually more like 13.7 volts

you're right absolutely yeah and and the

bus voltage actually varies a lot for

those since probably some electrical

engineers in the audience like 12 volts

is a very rough approximation but it's

it's it's really it's really kind of a

arbitrary low voltage and if you look at

say power ethernet it's running at 50

volts or roughly 48 volts and we set it

at 4 48 volts because anything really

above that you start to run into

regulatory concerns and power ethernet

is like I said roughly at that level but

the advantage of obviously quadrupling

the voltage is that you can

substantially reduce how much copper or

conductor is used in the car so you can

use very small copper wires for you know

it's aough roughly a roughly a quarter

not exactly a quarter but roughly a

quarter as much as as much copper is

needed for 48 volts as 412 so I think

it's it's a logical move that's that's

really the next step for the low voltage

architecture for the car I think

ultimately long-term War car will be 48

it's it's interesting that many people

love electric vehicles and want to have

them but some are harmed by a missing

infrastructure that would be the same

actually as the thing we will have lots

of chips ready but we will have had the

power to to operate them there's a race

between infrastructure and Technology

right now and uh you're also certain

technology may win which is a problem

because actually infrastructure should

win we should have all the

infrastructure we need is that correct

yeah so thank you very very much thank

you very much and thank you extremely

for 15 years of partnership and work

together we're inspired Always by your

speed attitude or greatness and things

come out thank you very much to Elon

Musk all right and thank you for your

support very very much appreciate so

what you just saw there is Elon Musk

being interviewed at Bosch connected

world and if you're not familiar Bosch

is a German engineering conglomerate

they are massive and so they were

interviewing Elon Musk about everything

from AI to electric vehicles and I cut

out some of the electric vehicle stuff

cuz it's not as related to artificial

intelligence but there was still tons to

talk about with AI let me go over a few

points so first Elon Musk said

self-driving full self-driving for

everybody is actually really close now

he has said this a lot and he's been

wrong a lot we've been at about 80% of

full self-driving for many years now but

that last 10 to 20% is where it really

gets difficult but I tend to be a techno

Optimist and I actually do think that

full self-driving on any road anywhere

in the world is actually closer than we

think and there are a lot of benefits of

that one that he pointed out is that

currently usage of vehicles is probably

about 10% of their actual life so you

drive to work you drive to the store you

park and then you go home and most of

the time about 90% of the time your

vehicle just sits there so all of a

sudden if the vehicles can drive

themselves they could potentially go run

errands for you they could potentially

be shared amongst multiple families in

your neighborhood so the implications

are really interesting to think about

with this combination of AI and

Automotive now what he also touched on

is that he has never seen a technology

be built this quickly and specifically

what he was talking about is AI compute

the roll out of infrastructure to power

AI models and of course most of that is

being powered by Nvidia chips and that's

also why they have doubled their revenue

quarter after quarter and now they are

the third largest company in the entire

world and they have a huge mode and one

interesting stat that he pointed out is

that compute coming online to power AI

models is increasing by a factor of 10

every 6 months that is insane to think

about obviously at a certain point we're

going to reach our needed capacity and

then we're going to build out past that

but I'm wondering if all of this

buildout is going to be a one-time

buildout or a continuous buildout and

that's going to really dictate how

successful these chip companies are in

the long run now I tend to think that

the Chip buildout is going to be

continuous because new chips are going

to come out new technologies are going

to be discovered if we move away from

the Transformers architecture at a

certain point which you know we probably

not for a while but those will need new

chips so as new tech is invented new

chips are going to be built to service

those specific Technologies and I love

what he said about the AI chip Rush

being bigger than the gold rush and he

also talked about AI robots and here's

the thing I'm super excited about robots

I've been making a lot of videos about

robots lately I had a prediction that

humanoid robots were going to be a big

thing in 2024 so I am very very bullish

on robots but he said he hopes robots

will be nice to us and he's saying that

a bit tongue and cheek but at the same

time I think he's a bit serious and we

know that he's afraid of AI in general

which I'll touch on in a minute but if

you've seen any of these robot demo

videos a lot of them are actually kind

of mean to the robot whether they're

kicking the robot and trying to figure

out if it can still stand after being

kicked pushed there's examples of

cleaning robots where somebody

continuously makes a dish dirty again

and again and the robot has to keep

cleaning it so there's a lot of these

examples where we're not being very nice

to robots and if they become come

sentient that is not going to reflect

well for us and he also said

productivity will increase drastically

because of AI and of course that is the

most obvious statement ever and I think

a lot of people are worried about their

jobs and they probably should be but I

think overall the productivity increases

from AI will be beneficial to humanity

and for all of these jobs lost I think

it's actually going to be jobs

transformed and new jobs created as it

has been with almost every other

previous technology and he ALS also said

we on the edge of the biggest

technological Revolution that he could

ever imagine so it's super exciting to

be here but he's also worried about AI

as I mentioned earlier he said we live

in the most interesting times and at

times that has made him quite depressed

because he thinks once AI reaches AGI

there is a chance no matter how small it

is that AGI takes over and becomes the

dominant quote unquote race and as he

said it made him depressed for a while

but the way way that he was able to

reconcile all of it is would he rather

be around during the AI apocalypse or

not and he said yeah I probably would be

so you know you never know exactly what

Elon is thinking but he has actually

said that exact thing multiple times in

the past in different interviews now I

personally don't think there's going to

be an AI apocalypse but of course who

can predict if you're creating life

essentially life that is vastly smarter

than you there is a chance that you are

not the top of the food chain anymore

and one interesting tidbit that I had

not actually thought about is okay right

now we have kind of a chip shortage and

chips are what power these AI models but

what powers the chips it's electricity

and he actually thinks there might be an

electricity shortage and he might be

saying that because of course Tesla is

becoming and kind of is a massive Energy

company based in electricity so there's

this chance where Tesla with their

supercharger network with their their

battery products with their Solar

Products become one of the biggest

energy companies in the world so they're

not even just an auto company at that

point and not only that he actually

talked about a specific Hardware product

that he thinks will have a shortage for

in the near future and that is step down

Transformers and I didn't actually know

what that was I had to look it up but

basically you're taking electricity from

the wall or from the line itself and

this is uh usually a massive amount of

electricity and to power these tips you

actually need to lower the voltage down

to a very small fraction of what is

coming in and that is called a Step Down

Transformer and he thinks we're going to

be running out of those soon so that's

super interesting I'm definitely going

to go research who builds step down

Transformers and this is not investment

advice of course but that's something

that I'm going to be looking into so I

thought that was a really interesting

interview some of which we've heard

before from Elon others I am hearing for

the first time if you enjoyed this video

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