Elon Musk: AI Will Change Everything
Summary
TLDRElon Musk shared his insights on the rapid advancement of AI and its profound impact on various sectors, particularly self-driving technology. He highlighted Tesla's progress in developing fully autonomous vehicles using AI and digital neural networks. Musk emphasized the exponential growth of AI compute, likening it to the biggest technology revolution ever witnessed. He discussed the potential challenges such as energy constraints and the need for robust infrastructure. Additionally, Musk teased exciting developments like Tesla's upcoming affordable electric vehicle and a new Roadster capable of achieving blistering acceleration.
Takeaways
- 👾 Elon Musk believes artificial intelligence (AI) will profoundly change the world, particularly with self-driving cars and the rapid advancement of AI compute power.
- 🚗 Tesla is close to achieving fully autonomous self-driving cars that use only cameras and neural networks, without lidar or radar.
- 🌐 The utility of passenger vehicles is expected to increase by a factor of 5 once they become autonomous, as they can be used more like taxis.
- ⚡ AI compute power is increasing at an unprecedented rate, doubling roughly every 6 months, which is driving demand for chips, transformers, and electricity.
- 🤖 Humanoid robots capable of performing almost any task a human can do, like Tesla's Optimus program, are on the horizon.
- 📈 AI is expected to dramatically increase productivity across all fields, from manual labor to supply chain logistics and customer service.
- 🔋 Tesla's next generation vehicle will be a lower-cost model focused on anticipating autonomy and self-driving capabilities.
- ⚡ Power demands are increasing, with vehicles moving from 12V to 48V systems to reduce copper usage and meet regulatory requirements.
- 🌐 Infrastructure development, like widespread charging networks, is crucial for the adoption of electric vehicles alongside technological advancements.
- 🚀 Despite the serious implications of AI, Musk believes it's important to have fun, with plans for high-performance Tesla models that can accelerate from 0-100 km/h in under 1 second.
Q & A
What is one of the most significant ways Elon Musk believes AI will change the world?
-Elon Musk believes AI will profoundly change the world primarily through self-driving technology, which will make cars fully autonomous.
Why is self-driving technology not as prevalent in Europe according to Elon Musk?
-Self-driving technology is not as prevalent in Europe because the focus has been on making it work in the US first, due to the added complexity of implementing it elsewhere in the world.
How does Elon Musk compare the operation of autonomous vehicles to human drivers?
-Elon Musk compares autonomous vehicles' operation to human drivers by noting that both use neural nets and visual inputs - humans use biological neural nets and eyes, while autonomous vehicles use digital neural nets and cameras.
What does Elon Musk imply about the necessity of creating an artificial general intelligence for self-driving cars?
-Elon Musk implies that in order to achieve fully autonomous self-driving cars, it's necessary to create a sort of 'baby artificial general intelligence' that can read, assess drivers and pedestrians' intentions, among other tasks.
What potential impact on vehicle utility does Elon Musk predict with autonomous cars?
-Elon Musk predicts that the utility of a passenger vehicle could increase by a factor of five, as autonomous cars might be used for up to 50 to 60 hours per week compared to the current average of 10 hours.
What does Elon Musk say about the pace of AI compute advancements?
-Elon Musk observes that AI compute is advancing at an unprecedented rate, with the capacity seemingly increasing by a factor of 10 every six months.
Why does Elon Musk mention Nvidia in the context of AI development?
-Elon Musk mentions Nvidia because it currently has the best neural net chips, which is a significant factor in the rapid advancement of AI, contributing to Nvidia's very high market cap.
What does Elon Musk predict will be a major future development in robotics?
-Elon Musk predicts the development of humanoid robots, capable of doing almost anything a human can do, as a major future development in robotics.
How does Elon Musk view the future of AI in terms of productivity and its impact on various fields?
-Elon Musk views AI as having a dramatic increase in productivity across all fields, from manual labor to supply chain logistics, facilitated by sophisticated chatbots and other AI technologies.
What does Elon Musk say about the future affordability and design of electric vehicles?
-Elon Musk mentions that Tesla's next generation vehicle will be lower cost and highly anticipates autonomy, aiming to make electric vehicles more affordable and accessible.
Outlines
🤖 The Impact of AI and Self-Driving Technology
Elon Musk discusses the significant changes AI and self-driving technology will bring in the next 5 to 10 years. He highlights Tesla's efforts in autonomous vehicles, particularly in the U.S., and the potential global impact of fully autonomous cars on vehicle utility and ownership models. Musk delves into the advancements in AI, notably in digital neural networks and the computational power driving these technologies, drawing parallels between human biological processes and AI systems. He predicts exponential growth in AI compute power, mentioning Nvidia's market valuation as an indicator of the sector's rapid expansion. The conversation also touches on the development of humanoid robots and the broader implications of AI in enhancing productivity across various sectors, emphasizing the importance of adapting infrastructure to keep pace with technological advancements.
🔋 Challenges and Predictions in AI and Energy Demand
Musk addresses the exponential growth in AI and its sustainability, pondering the eventual constraints on resources such as electricity and the necessary hardware to support AI's expansion. He humorously notes the irony of needing transformers to run AI transformers, predicting a future shortage in electricity supply due to the increased demand from AI and electric vehicles. Discussing the automotive industry, Musk talks about the transition to 48-volt systems in vehicles for efficiency and hints at the challenges of scaling infrastructure to meet the demands of electric vehicle charging and AI power consumption. The segment concludes with Musk's views on the automotive industry's future, including Tesla's move to 48-volt systems and the need for robust charging infrastructure.
🚗 Future Tesla Vehicles and Electric Mobility
Musk reveals Tesla's plans for a next-generation, lower-cost vehicle designed with autonomy in mind, reflecting on the human-like qualities of AI in driving. He teases the new Tesla Roadster's ability to accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in under one second, highlighting Tesla's commitment to fun and innovative vehicle features. The discussion also touches on the challenges of providing affordable electric vehicles in Europe and the importance of infrastructure in supporting the growth of electric mobility and AI. Musk expresses gratitude for the partnership and support in advancing Tesla's mission, emphasizing the synergy between technological innovation and supportive infrastructure in shaping the future of mobility.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Artificial Intelligence (AI)
💡Self-Driving Technology
💡Neural Networks
💡Autonomy
💡Productivity
💡AI Compute
💡Electric Vehicles (EVs)
💡Humanoid Robots
💡Infrastructure
💡Voltage Transformers
Highlights
Elon Musk discusses the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence computing power, increasing by a factor of 10 every 6 months, faster than any other technology he has seen.
Tesla is working on fully autonomous self-driving cars that can navigate without human intervention using only cameras and digital neural networks.
The utility of passenger vehicles is expected to increase by a factor of 5 once they become fully autonomous, as they can operate like taxis for longer hours.
AI is progressing rapidly in areas like online question-answering, essay writing, and image understanding.
Tesla's Optimus program is developing humanoid robots capable of doing almost anything a human can do.
Elon Musk believes we are on the edge of the biggest technology revolution ever, driven by AI advancements.
The rapid growth of AI computing power is leading to shortages in chips, voltage step-down transformers, and eventually electricity supply.
The automotive industry is expected to transition from the long-standing 12V architecture to 48V systems, reducing copper usage and enabling more powerful electrical systems.
Tesla's next-generation vehicle will be a lower-cost model focused on autonomous driving capabilities.
Elon Musk believes that as AI gets better, self-driving cars will feel smooth and intuitive, like a human is driving.
Tesla is working on a new Tesla Roadster that can accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in under 1 second, bringing fun and performance to electric vehicles.
There is a race between technology advancements and infrastructure development, with a need to ensure sufficient power generation and distribution for the growing demand from electric vehicles and AI computing.
Elon Musk acknowledges the need for affordable battery electric vehicles in Europe, where many consumers can only spend around €20,000-25,000 on a new car.
The rapid growth of AI and electric vehicles is creating a tremendous demand for electrical equipment and power generation infrastructure.
Elon Musk initially felt depressed about the potential impact of AI, but reconciled by embracing the opportunity to witness the 'AI apocalypse' rather than missing it.
Transcripts
welcome big hand to Elon
Musk thank you thanks oh how are you
good
fantastic we have we have had two we
have two days of AI and geni and
whatsoever but you look real my head is
very big in the screen added reality too
I suppose we haven't had so much talk
about AI in these two days so we need
your opinion what do you think about the
next 5 to 10 years on AI please give us
a you artificial insemination elligence
what do you think about
that but try try audience I say um yes
artificial intelligence is is is
certainly going to profoundly change the
world one of the most significant ways
is self-driving so we've been putting a
lot of effort into self-driving
technology for cars you you don't see it
quite as much in Europe because we we
first have to make it work in the US
before we increase the complexity of
trying to make it elsewhere in the world
but I think we're quite close to having
the car be fully autonomous so for
example like right now I could I'm in
Austin and if I went to drive say to the
airport the car could take me to the
airport with no interventions using and
all it's using are digital Neal Nets
other words artificial intelligence and
ceras so there's no liar radar nothing
and in fact if you think about how
humans drive cars humans are biological
neural Nets and we use eyes so it's eyes
and biological neur neets the analog is
digital the analog for digital is
cameras and digital neuron Nets this is
working remarkably well the it has been
quite difficult to do this because turns
out that in order to use in order for
this to work the car has to really be
quite fully intelligent really as as a
subset for example has to learn how to
read everything and and and how to
assess intention among drivers and
pedestrians so it's it's you're end up
creating sort of a baby artificial
general intelligence to solve this but
this will obviously be extremely
profound and obvious I'm talking about
Automotive here I'll get into the
broader question in a minute but the the
average use of a passenger vehicle is
only about 10 hours per week out of
hours the point at which it is
autonomous I think You' see probably a
third of the hours being used because it
would be like a taxi maybe my guess is
like 50 to 60 hours which means that the
utility of a passenger vehicle would
increase by uh a factor of five and this
is this is gigantic but we'll see so
that that's the one motive then there's
what people have think have certainly
experienced online where you can ask it
a question and ask for an essay or a
picture or to understand a picture and
that is progressing rapidly what what
I'm seeing in terms of AI compute is
I've never seen any technology Advance
faster than this the the artificial
intelligence compute coming online
appears to be increasing by a factor of
10 every 6 months like obviously that
cannot continue at at such a high rate
for forever or will exceed the mass of
the universe but I've never seen
anything like it and this is why you see
nvidia's market cap being so gigantic CU
they currently have the best neural net
chips I mean I think the didn't nvidia's
market cap exceed the GDP of Canada or
something increasingly anyway it was
quite high so yeah you know it may go
higher who knows chip Rush is bigger
than any Gold Rush that has ever existed
so and then there will also be robots
like humanoid humanoid robots not not
just sort industrial industrial robots
are of course familiar with you use
industrial robots we use industrial
robots everyone does but they're
programmed explicitly and they they
don't walk around but Tesla with for
example the Optimus program is making a
humanoid robot that is capable of doing
almost anything a human can do um I mean
I hope I just hope the the robots are
nice to us you know we hope so we hope
so too youon that the robots will be
nice to us and maybe let's say in this
regard because you are working on what
can we expect of let's say support which
is going to come maybe also a little bit
with regard to production because in the
BOS connected world we were also
discussing application of AI gen AI into
production in order to Bo productivity
maybe a couple of thoughts on this one
too well the plus side of AI is that I
think productivity will increase
dramatically so across every field
whether it be manual labor to supply
chain Logistics there's already a lot of
movement to use chatbots like
sophisticated chatbots for customer
service for example where they can
answer quite quite complex questions
already but I mean I think we really are
on the edge of probably the biggest
technology Revolution that has ever
existed you know there's supposedly sort
of a Chinese curse may you live in
interesting times Well we live in the
most interesting of times the most most
interesting and for for a while I was a
little bit it was making me bit a bit
depressed frankly cuz I was like well
will we be will they take over will we
be useless but then the way that I
reconciled myself to this question was
would I rather be alive to see AI
apocalypse or not I'm like I guess I'd
like to see this
uh you know that's a good thought going
to be boring that's a good thought
because you mentioned every six months
that's an exponential curve right
exponential curves are beautiful but
there's kind of a question where does it
ever end right do you see any end yet or
will it go on for 3 four five years like
this because then we talk 100 folds
right thousand folds of time yeah that's
why I said obviously yeah I mean you you
can't you can't grow at that rate
without quickly exceeding the mass of
the universe so clearly it's going to
hit some constraints the constraints
that AI compute and very predictable
I've actually predicted this over a year
ago so over a year ago the shortage was
chips neural net chips then I it was
very easy for predict that the next
shortage will be voltage step down
Transformers so it's you you've got to
feed the power to these things so if
you've got 100 to 300 Kilts coming out
of a utility and it's got to step all
the way down to you know6 volts that's a
lot of stepping down so now we're in
step down and this is my not that funny
joke which is that they need
Transformers to run Transformers cuz you
know the AI is like there's this thing
called a transformer in AI it's a it's a
neur a neural I don't know it's a
combination of sort of neural Nets and
they're running out of Transformers to
run Transformers then the next shortage
will be electricity so I think next year
you'll see the electricity that they
just can't find enough electricity run
all the chips I mean during the chip
crisis we certainly all did have many
contacts fortunately we were able to
master it together of course we all
would like uh to avoid a second chip
crisis but with regard to your to your
comment on on power demand we all know
today vehicles have 3 to 4 kilowatt
power Dem demand for the peripherals but
this is continuously going up and teslam
has recently launched the Cyber truck
which I believe is mostly coming with 48
volt do you see this as a let's say
further disruption of automotive
industry another technology change
within Automotive yeah I I think you
know the automotive industry has been
living with 12 volts for a very long
time a century roughly I think it
started off as six bolts and then they
needed a a more powerful starter motor
and then they doubled it to 12 volts
although it's it's actually more like
13.7 volts you're right absolutely yeah
and and the bus voltage actually varies
a lot for those since probably some
electrical engineers in the audience
like 12 volts is a very rough
approximation but it's it's it's really
it's really kind of a arbitrary low
voltage and if you look at say power
ethernet it's running at 50 volts or
roughly 48 volts and we set it at 4 48
volts because anything really above that
you start to run into regulatory
concerns and power ethernet is like I
said roughly at that level but the
advantage of obviously quadrupling the
voltage is that you can substantially
reduce how much copper or conductor is
used in the car so you can use very
small copper wires for you know it's
rough roughly a roughly a quarter not
exactly a quarter but roughly a quarter
as much as as much copper is needed for
48 volts as 412 so I think it's it's a
logical move that's that's really the
next step for the low voltage
architecture for the car I think
ultimately long-term War cars will be 48
it's it's interesting that many people
love electric vehicles and want to have
them but some are harmed by a missing
infrastructure that would be the same
actually as the other thing we will have
lots of chips ready but we will have had
the power to to operate them there's a
race between infrastructure and
Technology right now and uh you're also
certain technology may win which is a
problem because actually infrastructure
should win we should have all the
infrastructure we need is that correct
yeah are you talking about like sort of
charg infrastructure for cars and that
kind of thing well the the reason Tesa
developed the sort of global supercharge
network was specifically to address that
point and the point you're making which
is people need to be comfortable that
they can travel long distances and
charge their car wherever they go
unfortunately electricity is almost
everywhere and so it you know it's not
not all that rare unless you're really
far out in the countryside or something
so yeah you need the super need you need
the charging infrastructure and the
electricity to charge electric cars in
fact the the the simultaneous growth of
electric cars and AI both of which need
electricity both of which need voltage
Transformers actually I think is
creating a tremendous demand for
electrical equipment and for electrical
power generation maybe one more question
Elon with regard to new vehicle designs
coming to the market of course you
cannot share with us confidential
Secrets but but anyways what are the
things you believe let's say we will see
over the next years in the market and
maybe just a small comment in Europe we
see a shortage of affordable battery
electric vehicles in the offerings uh
because many people in Europe are only
able to spend like 20,000 25,000 for
their vehicles so so what are the new
vehicle types vehicle designs you you
are thinking about at Tesla well our
next Generation vehicle will be a a low
a lower cost vehicle also that is very
focused on a
like I said the we really are getting to
the point where the car can drive itself
well when you're in the in the US I
would recommend perhaps giving you know
trying out our car and see seeing how it
works it's remarkable you know as the AI
gets better and better it actually feels
quite humanlike in the way that it
drives it does things that you wouldn't
expect a computer to do it's it's not
like a robot dancing you know it's like
it feels smooth and and intuitive so our
next Generation vehicle which're quite
far along on is is very much
anticipating autonomy and then of course
we've got some fun things as well like
on our the new Tesla roads which will be
able to do 0 to 100 kilm in under 1
second great thank you very much you
know that's good we need that's good
news that's do some fun stuff too you
know that's the that's the that's the
dessert that's the cherry on the cake
but it's it's fun you're going to have
fun stuff too yeah right no that's very
good news because in the end there's a
lot of people here in the room that
still on the list to buy an electric
vehicle and you just announced something
which they probably want to buy so thank
you very much thank you very much and
thank you extremely for 15 years of
partnership and work together we're
inspired Always by your speed attitude
or graphicness and things come out thank
you very much T must all right and thank
you for your support very very much
appreciated
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