Haftaya Bakış / 12 Ağustos

Summary

The script discusses the turbulent week in American stock markets, highlighting the S&P 500's 4.05% rise and Nasdaq's 5.36% surge despite market volatility. It touches on the end of Japan's carry trade, the impact of the US service PMI and employment data, and the Federal Reserve's potential actions. Geopolitical tensions, including Iran-Israel conflicts and Russia's response to Ukraine's incursion, are also mentioned, emphasizing their potential market influence. The speaker shares their investment strategy, maintaining a 40% cash position amidst uncertainties.

Takeaways

• 📈 The U.S. stock market experienced a wild week but ended positively, with the S&P 500 showing a 4.05% increase and the NASDAQ a 5.36% rise.
• 📉 Despite the turmoil, small-cap stocks saw a slight decline of around -0.40%, and the Dow Jones experienced a -0.20% setback.
• 🔍 Looking at the one-month performance, the markets have not changed significantly, with a normal correction of around -4.37% in the S&P 500 since July 10th.
• 🌐 The discussion around the U.S. entering a recession was prevalent, but the speaker's tweets indicated that a recession has not yet arrived and is unlikely to happen this year.
• 🇯🇵 The Japan Carry trade issue ended on Tuesday as the Bank of Japan reassured markets, calming the volatility caused by speculation about interest rate hikes.
• 📊 The speaker anticipates that the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be important indicators for market movements in the coming week.
• 🛑 The speaker does not expect a significant change in the Federal Reserve's (FED) decisions based on the upcoming inflation data, hoping for no sudden interest rate cuts that could panic the markets.
• 💡 The speaker suggests that the inflation data is expected to be slightly above expectations but not alarmingly high, with a potential slight increase in core PCE inflation.
• 🛍 The retail sales data for the upcoming week is anticipated to be important for understanding the state of the economy and could cause market fluctuations.
• 📊 The speaker provides a detailed analysis of expected economic data, including PPI and CPI, and their potential impact on the markets.
• 💰 The speaker mentions maintaining a cash position of around 40%, indicating a cautious stance amidst the market's uncertainty.

Q & A

How did the American stock market perform last week despite the turmoil?

The American stock market experienced a turbulent week but ended positively. The S&P 500 rose by 4.05%, and the NASDAQ saw an even stronger climb of 5.36%.

What was the performance of small-cap stocks and the Dow Jones during the same period?

Small-cap stocks experienced a slight decline of around 0.40%, while the Dow Jones also saw a minor retreat of approximately 0.20%.

What has been the general trend of the stock market since July 10th according to the one-month performance?

Since July 10th, the stock market has seen a slight decline of around 4.37% in the S&P 500, which is considered a normal correction rather than an excessive adjustment.

What was the speaker's view on the possibility of a recession in the United States?

The speaker expressed in their tweets that they believe a recession has not yet arrived and is unlikely to occur this year, based on the positive service PMI data and other indicators.

What impact did the job data from Texas have on the employment figures?

The job data suggested that the deterioration was likely related to a temporary issue in Texas, indicating that the overall employment situation may not be as negative as it seems.

What was the outcome of the Japan Carry trade issue as of Tuesday?

The Japan Carry trade issue came to an end as the Bank of Japan reassured the markets and decided not to raise interest rates further, calming the markets down.

How did the volatility index (VIX) behave during the market turmoil?

The VIX, which measures market volatility, rose sharply during the market turmoil, reflecting increased concerns and uncertainty among investors.

What is the speaker's expectation for the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data?

The speaker expects the PPI to show a monthly increase of around 0.2% and the CPI to increase by the same amount, with higher expectations for the annual rates.

What factors might influence the PPI and CPI data according to the speaker?

Factors such as increased transportation costs due to attacks, container and shipping costs, as well as a decrease in oil prices, could influence the PPI and CPI data.

What is the speaker's view on the Federal Reserve's (FED) potential actions based on the upcoming data?

The speaker predicts that the FED is unlikely to call for an early meeting or make a sudden interest rate cut, as the current data does not warrant such a drastic measure.

What are some of the geopolitical risks mentioned in the script that could impact the markets?

Geopolitical risks mentioned include the Iran-Israel conflict, the situation in Ukraine with Russia, and the potential impact of these events on market volatility.