Why Is This Stock On FIRE?! | SMCI Stock Analysis
Summary
TLDRスーパーマイクロコンピューター株式会社の株価は1年間で77%上昇しましたが、偉大な投資家の一人であるハワード・マークスは約1年前にそれを売却しました。この動画では、そのような驚異的な成長の原因と、その評価が正当化されているか、また投資からまだ利益を得ることができるかどうかを探ります。同社の主な強みは、高度にカスタマイズ可能でエネルギー効率の高い製品を提供できることにあり、その最近の結果が価格の高騰を説明しています。しかし、短期的な結果だけに焦点を当てることは投資ではなく投機になりがちです。長期的な視点を持ってこの企業を評価し、現在の高い株価が投資のチャンスを提供しているかどうかを検討します。
Takeaways
- 📈 スーパーマイクロコンピューター株は1年で77%上昇した。
- 🔍 ハワード・マークスのようなトップ投資家も、この株を1年前に売却した。
- 💼 会社はサーバーとストレージソリューションを開発・製造し、カスタマイズとエネルギー効率の高い製品を提供。
- 📊 短期成績は売上が103%、純利益が68%、現金が64.7%増加、負債が17.3%減少。
- 📉 長期投資では10年前に$1,000投資すると、約$4,530の価値がある。
- 👥 経営陣は会社の約14.9%を保有しているが、最近多くの株を売却している。
- 💸 投資された資本のリターンは平均99.6%で、10%以上が望ましい。
- 📈 純利益率は業界平均の4.7%を上回る7.8%。
- 🚫 配当は支払われておらず、成長に集中している。
- 💰 価格収益率(PE比率)は57.8で、市場価値は高い。
- 🤔 現在の株価は高評価であり、将来的に他の買い時があるかもしれないが、今は適切な時期ではない。
Q & A
What has driven the huge increase in Super Micro's stock price over the past year?
-Super Micro has shown exceptional financial results over the past year, with revenue up 103% year-over-year, net income up 68%, and cash up 64.7% in just 6 months. The company is growing rapidly.
Is Super Micro's current stock valuation justified?
-The valuation seems extremely high, with a current P/E ratio around 58. Even the most optimistic DCF analysis with generous growth estimates suggests the stock is significantly overvalued.
What are some positives for Super Micro as a long-term investment?
-Positives include good insider ownership, strong revenue growth and cash flow growth over the past decade, high profit margins compared to the industry average, and a reasonably strong balance sheet.
What are the potential concerns for Super Micro as an investment?
-Concerns include the volatile free cash flows historically, lack of dividends, dilution of shareholders in the past decade from issuing 19% more shares, and the very high current valuation.
Did Howard Marx make a mistake by selling his Super Micro shares a year ago?
-In hindsight yes, as he missed out on huge gains over the past year. However, the valuation a year ago was likely much more reasonable, so it's hard to fault the decision.
What is the forecast for growth in the overall data storage market?
-The predicted growth rate for the global data storage market is 17.8% per year.
What were the revenue and EPS 10-year CAGR for Super Micro?
-The 10-year revenue CAGR was 19.9% and the EPS CAGR was 37.3%.
What should investors be cautious about when assessing Super Micro's past growth?
-The high historical growth rates may not be sustainable long-term, and the cash flows have been quite volatile historically, so past growth can be misleading.
What approach was used to value Super Micro stock?
-A discounted cash flow analysis was done using historical 5-year average free cash flows, with low/medium/high growth scenario assumptions.
When might Super Micro stock be at a better valuation to invest in?
-If growth slows and the valuation (P/E) compresses in the future, perhaps into the 10-15x range, it likely would provide a better long-term entry point.
Outlines
📈スーパーマイクロの株価上昇とその分析
スーパーマイクロコンピューター株が1年で77%上昇し、著名な投資家ハワード・マークスが売却してからの成長を見て、この上昇の理由とその正当性を検討。スーパーマイクロはサーバーとストレージソリューションを開発・製造し、カスタマイズ可能でエネルギー効率の高い製品を提供することが強み。最近の業績では、売上高が前年比103%増、純利益が68%増、現金が半年で64.7%増、債務が17.3%減と著しく好調。しかし、短期的な成果に注目すれば投資ではなく投機になるため、長期的な視点からこの投資の可能性を評価。過去10年間での投資収益率、経営陣の保有株比率、インサイダー取引の動向、スーパー投資家の関与状況、投資された資本のリターン、純利益率、株式の買い戻し、負債状況、収益の新たな成長、フリーキャッシュフローの成長などを分析して、この企業の現在の評価と投資のタイミングについて考察する。
💡スーパーマイクロの将来性と投資戦略
スーパーマイクロの将来性を評価するため、割引キャッシュフローモデルを使用し、次の10年間の成長を予測する三つのシナリオ(低、中、高)を設定。フリーキャッシュフローの不安定さを考慮し、5年平均を基準にして評価。各シナリオの内在価値を算出し、30%の安全マージンを適用して公正価値を求める。しかし、現在の株価はこれらの評価を大幅に上回っており、投資には適さないと判断。2023年初頭の株価は公正価値に近かったが、現在のPE比率とフリーキャッシュフローの不安定さを鑑みると、将来的に再び投資機会があるかもしれないが、現時点では待つべき時と分析。スーパーマイクロが優れた企業であることは確かだが、適切な投資タイミングを見極めることの重要性を強調。
🔍投資機会の選択と忍耐の重要性
投資における機会選択の重要性を強調し、ウォーレン・バフェットの「全てのボールに振る必要はない」という言葉を引用して、正しいと信じる機会にのみ焦点を当てるべきであると説く。スーパーマイクロコンピューターの分析を終え、同様にテクノロジー分野で優れた企業であるTSMCの分析に興味がある視聴者に向けて次の動画を予告。投資は時として忍耐が必要であり、市場の非合理性に巻き込まれずに冷静な判断を下すことの大切さを伝える。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡株価
💡収益性
💡フリーキャッシュフロー
💡割安性
💡株式発行
💡負債減少
💡配当
💡インサイダー所有率
💡投資家の行動
💡割引現在価値(DCF)
Highlights
Super Micro Computer stock is up 77% in the past year despite a legendary investor selling
The company has seen 103% revenue growth and 68% net income growth recently
Insiders own 14.9% of the company showing strong alignment with shareholders
However, insiders have been selling a lot of shares recently
Return on invested capital is slightly below ideal at 9.6%
The company has a decent profit margin of 7.8%
19% more shares have been issued in the past 10 years, diluting investors
The company could pay off long-term debt in just over 1 year
Revenue has grown 19.9% annually over 10 years
Free cash flow grew 53.6% over 10 years but is volatile
EPS grew 37.3% annually over 10 years
The current P/E ratio is a very high 57.8
Even optimistic intrinsic value estimates are far below the current price
The stock seems overvalued currently but could present opportunities in future
It's not the right time to invest for me, but I may be wrong
Transcripts
super micro computer incorporated stock
is up by
77% in one year and Howard Marx who is
one of the greatest investors ever sold
it almost exactly a year ago well
nobody's
perfect so let's try to understand what
caused such an incredible growth is such
a valuation Justified and can we still
make money on this investment
super micro computer incorporated
develops and manufactures server and
Storage Solutions its main advantage is
the ability to offer highly customizable
and energy efficient products and its
recent results can give us a first
Glimpse at why the price went
Skyhigh revenue is up by
103% year-over-year net income is up by
68% cash is up by
64.7% in half a year and debt went down
by
17.3% in the same time so shortterm
results are absolutely beautiful but if
we concentrate on the short term we are
rather speculating and not investing so
let's take a look at the big
picture if you were to invest $1,000
into this company 10 years ago you could
buy around 46 shares and now they would
be worth close to
$4,530
35% in 10
years well not bad it's actually pretty
good
pretty pretty
[Music]
good individual Insider that is a check
14.9% of the company is owned by
individual insiders and we would like to
see this number over 2% so that is some
great news the management has its skin
in the game and so it will take good
care of the company and of the
shareholders and are individual insiders
buying that is an X they are selling a
lot of shares in the recent year
especially in the last 3 months mons
when the price gained another
190% and do super investors own this
company that is an X Howard Marx and Lee
einsley used to own this company but
einsley sold his shares at the end of
2021 and Howard Marx did the same a year
later so Isley was too early for sure
and Marx probably made a nice profit but
nothing close to what it would be if he
just waited another year well it just
shows that it is never
[Music]
easy return on invested Capital that is
an X at
99.6% 10year medium returns and we want
to see this number higher than 10% so it
is just a little bit lower than our
expectations not bad but not great
either and what do we know about net
profit margin it is a check at
7.8% and the industry average is around
4.7 so a decent margin and now let's
take a look at share buyback it is an X
in the last 10 years they issued 19%
extra shares so they are diluting
long-term investors but maybe it's not
such a bad idea if a company believes
that its stock is very expensive and it
needs money for growth then issuing new
shares can be a cheaper way of getting
cash than for example getting into debt
so what is the situation with debt it is
a check it would take just over one year
to pay the long-term debt with a 5-year
average free cash flow so that is a nice
result Revenue New Growth that is a
check at
19.9% 10-year compound annual growth
rate and we would like to see this
number higher than 10% so such growth is
impressive and free cash flow growth
that is a check at
53.6% in the last 10 years that is great
but it does not tell the full story
super micro computer incorporated has
actually a very volatile history of its
free cash flow so this growth may look
great now but in one year's time it can
be negative again and earnings per share
growth that is a check at
37.3% in the last 10 years and also here
we would like to see it higher than 10%
so even though they are issuing new
shares this growth is
exceptional
super micro computer incorporated is not
paying any dividends at the moment and
looking at its incredible growth it
makes sense they are concentrating on
expansion and paying dividends would
just slow them
down price to earnings ratio is
57.8 let me repeat that price to
earnings ratio is
57.8 and I know Nvidia has a PE of 95
right now but the fact that other
companies are expensive does not make
this company cheap just a little bit
less expensive than other expensive
companies you know what I mean but let's
value it using a discounted cash flow
formula for that we will have to
estimate its growth for the next 10 10
years and we will make three scenarios
low medium and a high one and we will
use a 5year average free cash flow and
not the recent one because like I said
before the history of free cash flow of
this company is really unstable so
taking an average should give us a more
realistic picture of the company so in
the low scenario we will estimate a
growth of 18% for the first 5 years and
then
15% in the medium
22% and then 20% and in the high
scenario 30% and then 25% growth so the
low scenario is close to the predicted
global data storage market growth of
17.8% per year medium is predicting that
super micro computer will grow much
faster than the average and the high one
is a scenario in which we are much
closer to the average growth of this
company in the last few years it's very
hard to sustain such momentum but
definitely not impossible so with such
estimates the intrinsic value in the low
scenario is
$60 in the medium
$78 and in the high scenario
$118 but we have to always apply a
margin of safety to those prices I use a
30% one but you can use any percentage
that makes you feel comfortable and with
such a margin we get in the low scenario
$42 in the medium
$54 and in the high one
$83 and the current price is around
$740 so it is all in the red and it is a
meaningful difference
so it is very expensive but just at the
beginning of
2023 the price was around $83 so
basically that is the highest scenario
with the margin of safety so it was
around its fair value now we are paying
for expected growth but with a PE ratio
of almost
58 is just absurd to pay $58 for $1 of
earnings I don't see it and at the
beginning of 2023 it had a PE ratio of
nine so a great deal and now it is just
too late but looking at how unstable its
free cash flow is there may be other
opportunities to buy this company in the
future and it is a very good company
Financial Health growth it's all good
but we have to be patient and just wait
for the right time to invest is it now I
don't think so but maybe I'm wrong what
I know for sure is that it is not the
right time for me I go to our patreon
page look at our stock ranking and see
much better Investments there good
companies that are just way way cheaper
does it mean Super Micro computer won't
go up of course not markets can stay
irrational for a very long time but it
does not mean that we have to
participate in this Behavior as Warren
Buffett once said we do not have to
swing at every
opportunity just the one that we believe
is right for us if you enjoyed this
video you may be interested in my
analysis of tsmc another great company
in the technology sector
thank you so much for watching and see
you in the next
[Music]
one
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