Elecciones y economía 2026: riesgos, reformas y escenarios | Jorge González Izquierdo - Parte 2

Summary

In this interview with Dr. Jorge González Izquierdo, a renowned economist, the discussion centers around Peru's economic outlook for 2026. Dr. González highlights key structural bottlenecks such as poor education, infrastructure deficits, and government inefficiency, which hinder potential growth. He also touches on the impact of electoral uncertainty on investment and private consumption. The conversation further addresses the challenges of informality in the economy, emphasizing its long-term negative effects. Dr. González advises entrepreneurs to leverage artificial intelligence to boost productivity and urges candidates to focus on reducing insecurity and promoting formalization to support businesses.

Takeaways

• 📉 Peru's potential economic growth is estimated at around 3%, which is insufficient compared to the desired 6% for substantial progress.
• 🏫 Structural bottlenecks limiting growth include poor quality and quantity of education, deficient infrastructure, and inefficient government institutions.
• 🗳️ The political environment, especially in an election year with many candidates, creates uncertainty that can affect private consumption and investment.
• 🌎 International investment can be influenced by political messages from candidates; investors respond favorably or unfavorably depending on perceived economic stability.
• 📜 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) may have clauses that allow suspension for national security reasons, which can pose risks to trade stability.
• 💼 Peru has one of the highest rates of labor and business informality in Latin America, which hampers long-term economic growth.
• ⚙️ Informal sectors struggle to adopt new technologies, including artificial intelligence, slowing productivity improvements and technological progress.
• 🛡️ Informality can act as a short-term safety net during crises, but it is a long-term economic burden.
• 💡 Entrepreneurs and SMEs should leverage technology, especially AI, to reduce costs and improve productivity as a key strategy for 2026.
• 🔒 Addressing insecurity and institutional instability is critical; government support and incentives are more effective than punitive measures in formalizing businesses.
• 📊 Stability in global and domestic politics, avoiding disruptive candidates or international conflicts, is essential for Peru to maintain growth around its 3% potential in 2026.

Q & A

What is the estimated potential economic growth for Peru in 2026 according to Dr. Jorge González Izquierdo?

Dr. González Izquierdo estimates Peru's potential economic growth at around 3%, which he notes is insufficient compared to the desired 6% growth.

What are the main structural bottlenecks limiting Peru's potential economic growth?

The main structural bottlenecks are poor quality and insufficient education, inadequate infrastructure, inefficient government services with overregulation, excessive permitting requirements, and weak institutions.

How could the upcoming elections in Peru affect the economy according to the economist?

The economic impact will depend on candidates' statements and proposed policies. If candidates suggest maintaining the current economic model, the economy may remain stable. However, if candidates propose drastic changes, it could create uncertainty, affecting private investment and consumption.

Can you give an example from another country illustrating how election outcomes affect economic confidence?

Dr. González Izquierdo cited Chile’s election example: when Gabriel Boric’s opponent, a communist party member, was expected to win, markets reacted negatively. When Boric won, the stock market and currency responded positively, demonstrating how political expectations influence economic confidence.

What risks exist for Peru regarding its Free Trade Agreements (TLCs)?

Some TLCs include clauses allowing suspension for national security reasons. This means that economic agreements could potentially be disrupted by other countries invoking these clauses, creating uncertainty in trade relations.

How does informality in Peru impact economic growth?

Peru has high levels of labor (71%) and business (over 80%) informality, which slows long-term economic growth by delaying the adoption of new technologies and productivity improvements, although informality can provide short-term social safety during crises.

What advice does Dr. González Izquierdo give to entrepreneurs for 2026?

Entrepreneurs should: 1) adopt artificial intelligence and technology to reduce costs and increase productivity; 2) demand candidates address citizen security and institutional stability; 3) seek state support without being penalized, and encourage policies that make formalization attractive.

Why is high informality considered a long-term economic burden despite short-term benefits?

While informality provides a temporary safety net during economic shocks, it slows technological adoption and productivity growth, creating long-term challenges that hinder achieving higher potential growth rates.

What conditions could help Peru achieve stable economic growth in 2026?

Stable growth is likely if there are no severe internal or external disruptions, such as political instability, major policy changes by new leaders, or international conflicts affecting the global economy.

According to Dr. González Izquierdo, how should the government address informal businesses?

The government should make formalization attractive rather than using punitive measures. Enforcement through fines or confiscations alone does not effectively reduce informality; incentives and support to formalize are more effective.

How does the economist link technology adoption, specifically AI, to improving economic performance?

Adopting AI can significantly lower operational costs and boost productivity. This adoption is critical for both formal and informal sectors to stay competitive and improve the overall economy’s long-term potential.