NVDA Stock - Can NVIDIA Bottom Here?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the analyst reviews the stock's recent 2% drop to $170.74, highlighting short-term stabilization around $169–$170 and potential resistance at $174–$175. While the daily chart shows oversold conditions suggesting a short-term bounce, the weekly chart indicates a broader bearish trend with a long-term downside target near $147–$150. Current strategies include selling weekly cash puts, monitoring EMAs, and watching for daily closes below $169 as a red flag. Overall, the video provides a mix of technical analysis, trading insights, and market commentary to guide both short-term and long-term expectations for Nvidia.

Takeaways

• 📉 Nvidia closed at $170.74, down ~2% for the day, showing short-term indecision in price action.
• ⚡ The daily chart shows the stock is oversold, particularly relative to the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA).
• 🔄 Short-term expectation: Nvidia may stabilize in the $169–$175 range with a potential bounce toward $174–$175.
• 📊 Daily EMAs (9 and 21) are currently acting as resistance around $177, limiting upward movement until reclaimed.
• 💼 Trading strategy highlighted: selling $170 cash-secured puts with a stop loss around $169 daily close.
• 📆 Medium-term outlook (weekly chart) indicates continued bearish trend with lower highs on MACD signaling stalled momentum.
• 📉 Longer-term retracement target is near previous all-time highs around $147–$150, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci level and fair value gap.
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• 📈 Short-term bullish signals include observed bullish options flow in weekly and next-week calls, supporting potential stabilization and rebound.
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• 🔑 Key technical levels to watch: daily close below $169 signals stronger bearish continuation; reclaiming $174–$175 and EMAs would indicate trend shift.
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• 📝 Core thesis: short-term rebound possible due to oversold conditions, but overall downtrend remains until resistance and EMAs are reclaimed.

Q & A

What was Nvidia's closing price on the day discussed in the video?

Nvidia closed down 2% at $170.74.

How does the speaker interpret the daily candle for Nvidia?

The daily candle is considered somewhat 'doji-like,' indicating indecision and potential for a short-term reversal.

What is the short-term forecast for Nvidia according to the speaker?

The speaker expects Nvidia to stabilize in the range of $169–$175 over the next few days to a week, with potential minor bounces.

What levels are considered support and resistance in the short-term?

Support is around $169–$170 (50 EMA), while resistance is expected at $174–$175 (9 and 21 EMA and previous price levels).

What trading strategy is the speaker currently using for Nvidia?

The speaker is selling in-the-money cash puts at $170 with a stop-loss if daily closes fall below $169, expecting the stock to remain stable in the short term.

What is the speaker's view on Nvidia's longer-term trend?

The speaker remains overall bearish, expecting a retracement toward previous highs around $147–$150, corresponding to a fair value gap and the 382 Fibonacci level.

What would signal a stronger bearish move according to the analysis?

If Nvidia closes daily candles below $169, it is considered a red flag and could indicate a faster downward move.

What is the significance of the 9 EMA and 21 EMA in this analysis?

These exponential moving averages act as dynamic resistance on the daily chart; the stock is currently below them, indicating short-term oversold conditions but limiting upward momentum.

What does the speaker mention about options flow?

There was bullish options flow toward the end of the day, including weekly and next-week calls, which supports the potential for a short-term bounce to $174.

Under what conditions would the speaker consider taking bullish positions?

Bullish positions would be considered if Nvidia reclaims and holds the $174–$175 range, which would indicate a potential shift in trend.

What is the base-case scenario for Nvidia according to the speaker?

The base-case scenario is that Nvidia stabilizes in the $169–$175 range for the short term, with eventual longer-term retracement toward $147–$150.

Why does the speaker believe Nvidia is unlikely to fall too quickly?

Because Nvidia is a large-cap stock, and such stocks generally require significant momentum to drop rapidly; short-term oversold conditions also suggest stabilization.