UK House Prices 2024 | An Economist's View
Summary
TLDRIn this insightful podcast, Dr. John, an economist and chartered surveyor, shares his expertise on the property market, particularly in Scotland. He discusses the current trends, noting a steady housing market with modest price increases despite economic challenges. He also addresses the differences between urban and rural markets, the impact of rent controls, and the potential for a 'Help to Build' program to increase affordable housing. Dr. John offers practical advice for those considering moving, emphasizing the importance of research and professional guidance in navigating the market.
Takeaways
- 😀 The speaker expresses gratitude for the support received and emphasizes the value of the content provided by Move IQ in relation to property questions.
- 🎓 Dr. John, a guest on the podcast, has a background in economics and chartered surveying, with around 20 years of experience in the field, including working for Reties, a leading independent property company in Scotland.
- 🏘️ The housing market in Scotland has shown resilience, with steady house prices and modest growth despite economic challenges such as the cost of living crisis and rising interest rates.
- 📈 Market activity in Scotland has been accelerating, with an increase in transactions and listings, and mortgage lending showing an upward trend, suggesting a positive outlook for the housing market.
- 🌍 Dr. John notes that while Scotland has a different constitutional settlement, it generally follows similar economic trends as the rest of the UK, which is reflected in the housing market.
- 💰 The speaker discusses the potential impact of political events and global conflicts on the housing market, but suggests that barring significant shocks, the market can be cautiously optimistic.
- 🏢 There are differences in the housing market dynamics between urban and rural areas in Scotland, with city markets and their hinterlands experiencing more growth due to increased economic activity and desirability.
- 🚫 The lifting of rent controls in Scotland may have disrupted the market, leading to a larger markup between tenancies and potentially exacerbating rent increases in cities like Glasgow and Edinburgh.
- 🏗️ The speaker highlights the importance of addressing the housing supply issue, suggesting that government incentives for building affordable and starter homes could help balance the market.
- 💡 Dr. John suggests that mortgage innovation, such as longer-term mortgages and mortgage insurance systems similar to those in Canada, could help first-time buyers enter the housing market.
- 📉 The speaker advises against waiting for a house price crash, as the housing market has proven resilient and house prices generally trend upwards over time, especially considering the housing shortage in relation to population growth.
Q & A
What is the main focus of the Move IQ company mentioned in the transcript?
-Move IQ focuses on providing valuable content related to property questions and supporting individuals with insights into the property market.
What is Dr. John's professional background, and how did he become involved in the field of property economics?
-Dr. John is an economist and a charter surveyor. He fell into the field about 20 years ago after completing his undergraduate and PhD degrees in economics, working in academia, the public sector, and later in a private sector consultancy that was acquired by a large property company. He retrained to become a property economist and a charter surveyor.
How long has Dr. John been working at Reties, and what is his role there?
-Dr. John has been working at Reties, a leading independent property company in Scotland, for about 12 years. He is part of the research and consultancy team, advising clients on market direction and business strategies.
What was Dr. John's view on the housing market in Scotland at the time of the podcast?
-Dr. John observed that the market activity was accelerating, prices were steady, and economic conditions were turning more positive in Scotland.
How does the housing market in Scotland compare to other regions within the UK?
-Scotland tends to follow similar economic trends as the UK, with the housing market moving in line with the general economy. Scotland sits at mid-table or just above in terms of various socio-economic indicators compared to English regions and other countries within the UK.
What were the main factors contributing to the stability of house prices in Scotland despite a difficult market?
-Factors such as falling mortgage rates, improving economic sentiment, and the procyclical nature of the housing market contributed to the stability of house prices in Scotland.
What are some of the challenges facing the housing market, according to Dr. John?
-Challenges include high inflation, rising mortgage costs, the need for larger deposits, and political uncertainties such as elections and international conflicts.
How does Dr. John perceive the impact of rent controls and their potential lifting on the Scottish housing market?
-Dr. John believes that rent controls have disrupted the market, leading to a bigger markup between tenancies and possibly exacerbating rent increases in cities like Glasgow and Edinburgh.
What advice does Dr. John give to someone considering moving or buying property in the next 12 months?
-Dr. John advises setting a sensible budget and criteria, seeking good advice from agents or mortgage brokers, shopping around for mortgage products, and not rushing into decisions.
What are Dr. John's thoughts on the potential for a house price crash, and should potential buyers be concerned about this?
-Dr. John does not anticipate a house price crash in the near future and advises against letting fears of a crash prevent people from making informed decisions about buying property.
How does Dr. John view the future of home ownership, especially considering the challenges faced by first-time buyers?
-Dr. John believes that while the desire for home ownership remains strong, societal trends may be moving towards a more European model where people choose to rent, especially if good quality rental options are available.
Outlines
📈 Economic and Housing Market Insights
The speaker expresses gratitude for the support received and introduces Dr. John, an economist and chartered surveyor with a diverse background in economics and property sectors. Dr. John discusses his career path and current role in advising clients on market trends. He provides an analysis of the Scottish housing market, noting similarities with the UK's broader economic trends. Despite challenges such as the cost of living crisis and interest rate hikes, the market has shown resilience with stable house prices and modest growth. Dr. John also touches on the potential impact of political events and global conflicts on the housing market.
🏡 Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Differences
Dr. John delves into the dynamics of the housing market in Scotland, highlighting the growth in city markets and their surrounding areas, which have seen increased demand due to economic activity and accessibility to urban amenities. He contrasts this with the challenges faced by remote rural areas, where demand has been weaker. The pandemic's influence on the market is also discussed, with people moving further away from cities but still seeking proximity for work and amenities. Dr. John mentions specific areas like East Lothian, which has experienced growth due to scenic appeal and the retirement market.
🏘️ Impact of Rent Controls and Housing Supply
The conversation shifts to the effects of rent controls in Scotland, which have been lifted as of April 1st, replacing the previous cap with a rent adjudication process. Dr. John suggests that the controls have disrupted the market, leading to higher markups between tenancies and potentially exacerbating rent increases in cities like Glasgow and Edinburgh. The discussion also addresses the challenges of the private rented sector, the impact of government interventions, and the potential consequences of a shrinking supply of rental properties due to tax situations for landlords.
💼 Economic Policies and Housing Affordability
Dr. John discusses the potential outcomes of the upcoming elections and the fiscal policies that may affect the economy and housing market. He anticipates a moderate labor government that will adhere to existing fiscal rules, with the Bank of England continuing to manage interest rates. The speaker and Dr. John explore the possibility of a rebalance in housing affordability, with suggestions for government incentives to increase the supply of affordable homes and innovative mortgage solutions to help first-time buyers.
👥 Changing Attitudes Toward Home Ownership
The discussion considers the societal shift in attitudes toward home ownership, with an increasing number of people in the private rented sector (PRS) beyond their early years. Dr. John suggests that the rental model may become more prevalent, especially for younger individuals who value mobility. However, concerns are raised about the long-term implications for those who retire without owning property, especially if rents continue to rise. The conversation also touches on the need for quality rental accommodations and the potential for a more European model of living.
🔍 Advice for Prospective Home Buyers
Dr. John offers advice for individuals considering buying a home in the next 12 months. He emphasizes the importance of understanding one's budget and affordability, setting criteria for the desired property, and seeking professional advice from agents and mortgage brokers. He advises against rushing the process and to be prepared for potential disappointments. Dr. John reassures that despite market fluctuations, property remains a good long-term investment due to the island's increasing population and housing shortage.
🏡 Encouraging Downsizing and Housing Development
The final paragraph addresses the issue of downsizing and the potential measures that could encourage older homeowners to free up larger homes. Dr. John suggests tax incentives and exemptions as possible solutions, such as capital gains and stamp duty exemptions. He also stresses the importance of building suitable homes for downsizers and the need for a coordinated approach to housing policy to address the shortage of family homes and accommodate the changing demographics.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Property Market
💡Economist
💡Charter Surveyor
💡Housing Affordability
💡Interest Rates
💡Supply and Demand
💡Rental Market
💡Downsizing
💡Mortgage Lending
💡Property Economics
💡Rural vs. Urban Areas
Highlights
Introduction of Dr. John, an economist and charter surveyor with 20 years of experience in the property sector.
Dr. John's background includes working in academia, public sector, and private sector consultancy before specializing in property economics.
Dr. John's current role at Reties, a leading independent property company in Scotland, involves advising on market trends and business directions.
Recent LinkedIn post by Dr. John suggests market activity is accelerating with steady prices and improving economic conditions in Scotland.
Dr. John's view that the housing market in Scotland follows similar trends to the UK as a whole, despite constitutional differences.
Market challenges in 2023 due to the cost of living crisis, rise in interest and mortgage rates, but house prices remained stable with a modest increase.
Positive start to 2024 with increased activity rates, mortgage lending, and stable house prices according to ONS statistics.
The impact of political events and conflicts on the housing market is unpredictable but assuming stability, the market outlook is cautiously positive.
Dr. John discusses the challenges for first-time buyers due to higher mortgage costs and deposit requirements.
Expectations that the era of cheap borrowing is over, with new normal interest rates around 3-3.5%.
Differences in housing market dynamics between urban and rural areas in Scotland, with city markets and their hinterlands seeing main growth.
The impact of rent controls in Scotland, with the rent freeze cap being lifted and replaced by a rent adjudication process.
Concerns about the potential negative effects of rent controls on supply and affordability in the rental market.
Dr. John's skepticism about the possibility of a house price crash and the resilience of the housing market through recessions.
Suggestion to incentivize 'Help to Build' programs to increase the supply of affordable and starter homes.
Discussion on the potential of mortgage innovation and longer-term mortgages to help people get onto the housing market.
Dr. John's advice for those considering moving in the next 12 months, emphasizing the importance of doing thorough research and seeking good advice.
The importance of not rushing into a move and being prepared for disappointments along the way.
Dr. John's perspective on the long-term investment value of houses, especially considering the housing shortage and increasing population.
Potential strategies to encourage downsizers to free up family homes, such as tax incentives and benefits.
Transcripts
I'm committed to supporting you and
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absolutely carry on doing what we're
doing Dr John very warm welcome to the
podcast thank you so much for for coming
on board for the benefit of the audience
could you just briefly share your your
background and explain a little bit
about about what you do for a living and
and how that came about because I think
it's quite
relevant yeah uh thanks for very happy
to be here thanks for the invite on uh
so I'm an economist um as well as a
charter surveyor I kind of fell into it
I suppose um about 20 years ago um so I
did my undergrad degree in economics I
then did my PhD in economics for the
time I worked in public sector um in
Academia um and then I worked in a
private sector consultancy that got
bought over by large property company so
um um I retrained become a property
Economist and then went Allin and became
a charter surveyor as well so I've been
doing it for doing this job for around
about 20 years I've been at reties which
is a leading independent property
company in Scotland um for about 12
years um and and I'm part of the
research and consultancy team so as well
as advising clients on the market and
the general business on Market direction
we also have a range of external clients
both in the private and public sector
needless to say highly well qualified to
talk to us about the the economy and and
how it affects the housing market and of
course vice versa I I I noticed that you
recently post on LinkedIn that your view
at the moment was that market activity
was accelerating prices were steady
economic conditions um turning more
positive but that was all of course um
up in Scotland do you feel that the same
sentiment supply for for England and
Wales yeah I mean I think so um although
Scotland has a different constitutional
settlement now um Scotland if you look
at across a range of socio economic
indicators whether it be you know
earnings economic activity rates um
population growth Scotland is around
about mid table if you look at the uh
English regions and the other countries
within the UK Scotland sits at mid-table
or just above mid-table almost these
indicators exception is Health uh where
Scotland tends to be down near the
bottom of the table but it's um we tend
to follow the similar economic Trends as
the UK and the housing market is
procyclical um of course which tends
moving in in line with the general
economy and you can see that with the
Scottish housing market as well it's
followed very similar UK uh housing
market trends over the last 20 to 30
years so at over 23 as a whole it was a
difficult Market we were you know we
were expecting a difficult Market
because the cost of living crisis and
the um the rise in interest rates and
mortgage rates so uh Market activity
fell transactions were down 10% over the
years a whole but house prices stayed
stable in fact there was a modest uplift
in in house prices of about 1% at the um
at the end of the calendar year 24 has
started reasonably well it's important
not to get carried away because we've
only got you know a few months a data
but um activity rates are are up you can
tell that through uh the number of
registered sales can also tell it
through the uh volume of property that's
being listed and um mortgage lending uh
is also on an upward trajectory um house
prices broadly stable latest ons stats
that came out at the earlier this week
demonstrate that and there's a sense
that you know falling mortgage rates
with anticipation of mortgage rates
falling further over the course of the
year as well as improving sentiment
because of the gradually improving
economy will also have a positive impact
on the way to Market but then of course
we've also got elections both here and
America um we've got
conflicts um we've still got to get
inflation under control so so there's a
lot of there's a lot of of other sort of
variables and things that are going on
in the world that that I know in the
back of people's minds and and and just
wondering how those are likely to affect
housing markets decisions to move borrow
money etc
etc yeah I mean I I don't think although
we are going through a political cycle
um I'm not sure that the politics is
really going to change the direction of
the economy that much um at least in the
UK um both the uh the main part seem to
be on on the same page you
know in terms of economic policy it
looks like we're going to get a labor
government um at the end of this year
but it's a a labor government that will
be a moderate uh labor government and
it's going to tie itself to the same
fiscal rules that are being followed
just now so the bank of England is still
or the bank of England monry policy
committee is still going to be in charge
of interest rate setting yeah and
deflation is down you know so the latest
results which we G got this week um is
down now under 3 and a half% and it is
expected to fall further the usual
caveat Supply no one saw the Russia
Ukraine war No One S see saw the Israeli
Gaza conflict ring up to the extent that
it did no one can really foresee what
the the outcomes of some of these
political events are going to be but
know assuming other things equal and we
don't have any more significant shocks
to the system
then you know we can be broadly positive
or cautiously positive about the
direction of the housing market over the
next I've heard talking to agents over
the last few weeks people talking about
actually it seems to be a normal Market
it's a normal spring Market they're
getting getting instructions they're
doing business would how how do you feel
about
that uh up to a point yeah I mean I
think still think we've got significant
headwinds um so although inflation is
down it is still relatively High
although mortgage rates have been
falling um they have they're still much
higher than than what they were 18
months ago um for firsttime buyers which
is your kind of the lifeblood of your
Market um uh of the market you know they
have struggled to get onto the market
because of the uh Rising mortgage costs
and the size of the deposits required um
so it's a market that's still got those
headwinds but what we're seeing at least
you know at the end of 23 and the start
of 24 we're beginning to see the market
adapt better to those headwinds and
those headwinds have also become less
strong okay thank you um calming words
although um would you feel that the kind
of days of cheap money cheap borrowing
that they've they've that's been and
gone isn't it we're not going to see
that again surely yeah I I agree yeah I
mean I think um The New Normal will
probably be interest rates at something
around about 3 3 and a half% I don't
think that's necessarily a bad thing
yeah um I think you know the the the
year of um you know interest rates down
at at 1% or so that is very abnormal you
know um it's just we got rather used to
it then it's become a bit of a shock
yeah and I don't I don't think it's just
people within the housing market got
rather used to it I think you private
Equity got used to it I think you know
institutional funds got used to it you
know it's it's um
um it's it was always going to be an
adaption process after that period ended
getting back to something like normality
is not a bad thing how would you um
explain the differences in housing
market dynamics particularly in Scotland
but between urban and rural areas
because there are differences and they
seem to behave
differently uh yeah they do um I mean it
is one of the it is one of the
differentiators I suppose when you when
you are looking at uh market performance
the main growth that's happened in
Scotland um in recent years has largely
been in the city markets and in the
hinterland areas uh so that's areas kind
of spilling out from the cities which
can include mixed you know Urban rural
areas and in some instances rural areas
themselves but that are still commutable
to the main city so these are the areas
that have seen the demand you know these
where economic activity rates have
increased fastest
and this is and people still need to be
or prefer to be not that far away from
from from their work as well as uh the
amenities and the facilities that they
use so it's it's these areas that have
uh tended to grow and grow grow quicker
yeah and the pandemic also meant that
the hint areas moved out because people
were willing to move that a little bit
further and commit that a little bit
further and after the pandemic
um but there are parts of the country
like East lodan where you know you can
see clearly see there's an urban and
rural effect um so you know East loing
contains rural areas but rural areas
aren't that far away from City living
and this loan Market um has been one of
the fastest growing markets in Scotland
you know over the last five years there
is that I think of suffered most have
been the remote in rural areas so these
are the areas where demand has certainly
been weaker mhm um but there are
exceptions so our giling but there's
parts of our ging but where um the
market has risen faster than the uh than
the national average and that's because
um the second Home Market because
there's very very scenic areas within uh
uh within uh that local Authority but
also the retirement Market as people
look to move to these locations as a um
as as a place to TI now I couldn't get
you on and not ask about um rent
controls and and I know that they're
being lifted so there's going to be some
changes um could it backfire on the on
the Scottish government what's your take
on on on the impact of
this yeah we've had a rent freeze or cap
now in Scotland since uh September uh
2022 and an eviction ban um and the rent
freeze cap applies to existing tencies
only so uh not not between uh Tendencies
and that's now been lifted on the uh 1
of April uh this year and will be
replaced at least for a period of time
by a relatively complex rent
adjudication process um if the tenant
chooses to follow uh that R route so
there will still be some controls on
rents but they will not be as stringent
as you had with the uh with the rent cap
I think what it's done is it
um disrupted the market so you have the
control within tencies but you don't
have them between tencies and the
evidence would seem to suggest that
you're getting now a bigger markup
between tencies because of the cap yeah
within tenancies yeah and therefore it's
been a questionable just um what its
impact on affordability has been and it
would seem from the latest H track Sula
data that's that's come out early this
week that Glasgow and Edinburgh rents
are going up faster than they are
anywhere else um uh uh in the UK and it
is likely we've got a demand Supply and
balance in those cities but it is likely
that the the rent cap has
exacerbated uh that to some extent
suppli seems to have dropped back um
using the best evidence that we have
available uh in recent years and the bow
to rent sector which has been yeah you
know producing um uh units down south
particularly in places like uh L uh
London and Manchester and creating new
homes that sector is only really
embrionic in Scotland and the additional
political risk caused by the uh by the
by government intervention has meant
that you know we're not really seeing
that Supply go off the ground um like we
have in other parts of the UK I mean if
the supply continues to shrink because
of well the the the tax situation on
landlords um
we're going to get into a real pickle
aren't we as as a society as a whole
because there just simply won't be
enough investor owned
properties correct and we've got a
national system of rent controls in
Scotland coming soon um so that's going
to be in the new housing bill which is
due to be released in in in the next few
weeks here I understand so yeah you're
right you know it's economic con concept
of scarcity you know it has to find a
way out when you've got demand Supply
and balance it will normally find it way
out in price increases if you cap the
price increases it's a bit like a whack
you know so something will pop up and
what will pop up is cues and shortages
yeah I don't I don't like the way the
way it's feeling at the moment on on
that topic um I talked to Nathan Emerson
CEO of of property Mark a couple of
weeks ago um and we were talking about a
lot of people at the moment feel
excluded from the ability to to own
their own home do you think we'll ever
going to see an affordability a sort of
rebalance for those who want to buy and
and now being able to do so
do Nathan and I talked about it for some
time and we couldn't really see it
happening but what what's your what's
your thoughts on that
topic uh yeah I mean I think um in the
short term the the the the reduction in
mortgage rates will will definitely help
um but I think if you're kind of waiting
about for a house price crash to happen
um I I think you'll be disappointed um I
don't think it's going to happen anytime
soon um and the housing Market's proven
quite resilient as we could see through
the last couple of recessions um to even
you know Mark changes in uh economic um
activity as well as housing market
activity so the the correction tends to
be in transactions rather than in rather
than in house prices I think the
government can can help um I think you
know we should be trying to incentivize
help to build um not just help to buy
help to buy added to the demand side but
without really doing much for the supply
side so you tended to get house price
inflation as a result um but if we had a
you know a program um uh a help to Bild
program to try and encourage um an
increase in affordable homes and and
starter homes that it might be better to
put the money in that part of the
equation uh we could also look at um
mortgage Innovation you know through the
banks which is happening to some extent
so looking at longer term mortgages yeah
it's also looking at some kind of you
know mortgage insurance type system as
they have in Canada um which could lower
deposits and enable people to get onto
the housing market interesting that's
that's a really interesting concept and
that's working in Canada yeah it seems
to be yeah there was a report out
recently from the social Market
Foundation that um looked at some of
these International examples and what we
could learn from so it's worth a look it
seems to be still deeply embedded in our
kind of society and our psyche to own
our own
homes you mentioned Bild to rent earlier
and that's that's embryonic in Scotland
but um but it's certainly on its
way understand there's quite a lot in
the
pipeline do things like that is there a
generation that's starting to think as
you know what saving up for a deposit by
my own home is so Out Of Reach I'm
giving up the idea in which case I'll
I'll I'll live in a bill to rent or I'll
rent my own home forever do you think
that's changing in people's
minds yeah I mean I think I think the
desire is still um home ownership at
some point in your life cycle um but if
you haven't got into the housing ladder
by the time you're 40 or in your early
40s then you're going to struggle to
make it I think you know with a typical
you know 25 year mortgage term you're
going to struggle to make it and pay off
the mortgage before you before you
retire so we are seeing um an
increasing number of people between you
know 35 and 59 now in now in the PRS um
it's not just a it's not just a place
for younger people anymore but we may be
moving towards a more European model
where you know people choose to rent and
if we can provide good quality rented
accommodation that's got the amenities
and the facilties
that they require and young people in
particular tend to be more itinerate now
so they're moving around and perhaps
don't want to be you know tied to a
property in a particular location for a
longer period of time then a rental
model may make more sense and I think
the Advent of belter we're beginning to
see some of that move things in the UK
the worry of in my mind is what happens
when those people who have rented
throughout their lives and and then
retire but rents in the meantime have
climbed to even higher than they are now
and you've retired you haven't got an
income what then happens that that's
well exactly well well exactly but but
this can happen for people who are on
mortgages as well or long-term mortgages
true you know so they can still find
themselves working way past conventional
determination in order to pay off what
advice would you give someone who was
thinking about making a move over the
next 12 months um would you
yeah any sort of top tips um advice that
you you would you you would help them
through where do you foresee
things well kind of all the standard
sensible stuff I think well at least I
hope it's sensible um but it's um you
know do your H workor you know work out
what your what your budget is and and
what your affordability is I think it's
also about setting a sensible criteria
you know so I moved home a few years ago
myself and you know when you just see if
you go into a few estate agent offices
and you pick up a few brochures and you
just begin to think oh God how am I
meant to sift my way through this but if
you set a criteria around you know the
type of property that you're wanting
access to schools or access facilities
amenities what type of the country that
you want to live in you know if you set
a good criteria you can quite narrow you
can narrow down your search yeah um uh
reasonably quickly get good advice you
would expect me to say that but you know
a good Agent or good mortgage broker is
worth the weight and gold this is after
all probably the biggest investment of
your life so um make sure you get good
advice and and and if you don't get a
broker do plenty of Preparatory work on
on mortgages because don't just go to
your you know normal Bank um and take
one of their mortgage products but you
know make the effort to shop around yeah
also say don't rush into it um you know
make sure you get it right and accept
that you're going to have some
disappointment along the way you know
your dream home that you might see might
just be snapped up by someone else you
know a day later while you're trying to
get your mortgage Finance together so
there'll always be some disappointment
on the way and just kind of brace
yourself for that yeah but generally
You' you'd be encouraging them to go
ahead yeah I mean I think don't don't
kind of work yourself into lather about
house price crashes you know we we we
see a lot of clickbait Articles
particularly when
the Market's turning down there's going
to be a house price crash it's going to
fall 30 or 35% and no one wants to you
know catch a falling knife like that um
but the general direction of house
prices over a period of time is upwards
you know even in the current economic
cycle which not been a great one but
houses have held have held up in in in
in new term so don't get yourself walked
up too much about that and think well I
can't move because house places might
fall you know over the longer term um
houses Prov to be a good investment well
we live on an island don't we with an
increasing population and a housing
shortage if looking at the numbers of
people in relation to the numbers of
houses it doesn't actually work um so
upward pressure will will remain until
we build more
houses well yes exactly um and you know
we're not building anything near Target
rate and you know we're one of the
lowest Builders I think of of anywhere
in in the among so ecd countries so um
and you're right you know the demand
pressure keep increasing because you
know migration is going up um and um
there's demand for particular types of
houses where you know there are shortage
of them just now such as family homes um
and that's because people tend to stay
in the homes for longer you know so the
family homes that could be freed up by
by downsizers for example it's not
really happening because the provision
of new homes for downsizers isn't there
do you think I'm putting you on the spot
a bit here but on the topic of
downsizing do you think the powers that
be could come up with a a sort of a
Magic Bullet a tax incentive to
encourage downsizers to to to free up
their their bedrooms if you
like um could could there be something
done with stamp Duty or capital gains
tax or
something yeah absolutely I mean the
best way to get the thing moving would
be um you know a car and stick approach
yeah using both Capital games and stamp
Duty exemption so um you know in in the
US US um on many parts of the US you you
don't pay stamp Duty on your last move
um so that because many of your kind of
um retirement households they might be
um asset rich but but they're income Po
and they don't particularly want to be
paying a you know a significant tax bill
uh as a result of of of selling their
property so yeah there there are ways in
which you know we can use the the tax
and benefit system to I think culle um
you don't want to be forcing people to
do stuff but you can be you can be
kuling people or at least opening up um
uh possibilities that um that they may
not have have considered but we also
need to be building those types of
houses that they can move into um and as
yet you know in Scotland and the wayer
UK uh we haven't really geared up to do
that Dr John why is words indeed really
appreciate your your guidance and your
thoughts um thank you so much for coming
on great to talk to you
[Music]
pleasure
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