Before You Decide: 3 Steps To Better Decision Making | Matthew Confer | TEDxOakLawn
Summary
TLDREl guion narra un desafío de emprendimiento en Stanford donde un equipo vende derechos de presentación, enseñando a cuestionar limitaciones. Propone tres pasos para la toma de decisiones efectiva: cuestionar los límites, prever posibles fracasos mediante un pre-mortem y verificar los aspectos básicos para evitar errores. Ejemplos de historias, incluyendo el caso de Sully Sullenberger, destacan la importancia de estos pasos en situaciones críticas.
Takeaways
- 💡 Desafía los límites: Primero, desafía los límites impuestos para permitirte pensar más allá de las soluciones tradicionales.
- 🏆 Aprovecha la oportunidad: En lugar de gastar los cinco dólares, el equipo ganador vendió los derechos de presentación, maximizando su verdadera oportunidad.
- 🤔 Realiza un pre-mortem: Antes de tomar una decisión, visualiza cómo podría fracasar para mitigar posibles errores y formular una estrategia correcta.
- 🚀 Prepárate para el éxito y el fracaso: Es importante equilibrar la contemplación del éxito con la consideración de cómo podrías fallar.
- 🔍 Verifica los detalles básicos: No subestimes la importancia de revisar los aspectos básicos para evitar que pequeños errores causen grandes problemas.
- 🛫 Aprendizaje de la simulación: Más de 20,000 profesionales en 30 países han participado en simulaciones para mejorar sus habilidades de toma de decisiones.
- 🌏 El efecto de la cobra: Un ejemplo de cómo una solución aparente puede empeorar el problema si no se considera el pre-mortem.
- 🔄 Comprueba la unidad de medida: Un error en la NASA con el sistema de medición causó la pérdida de un satélite, subrayando la importancia de la precisión.
- 🛤️ El aterrizaje del río Hudson: Un ejemplo de cómo desafiar los límites y considerar escenarios de éxito y fracaso pueden llevar a un éxito inesperado.
- 👨🏫 El valor de la reflexión: La reflexión después de una experiencia es crucial, pero también es importante contemplar el fracaso antes de tomar una decisión.
- 🛑 No te dejes llevar por la adrenalina: En situaciones de alta presión, es fundamental mantener la calma y verificar los detalles críticos antes de actuar.
Q & A
¿Qué desafío se le presentó a los estudiantes de la clase de emprendimiento en la Universidad de Stanford?
-Los estudiantes fueron divididos en equipos y se les dio un sobre con cinco dólares como fondo inicial para su nueva operación. Su tarea era convertir los cinco dólares en el mayor monto de dinero posible en un corto período de tiempo.
¿Cómo abordó el equipo ganador el desafío de generar dinero con los cinco dólares?
-El equipo ganador vendió los derechos de su presentación a una empresa local, que estaba dispuesta a pagar por la oportunidad de presentar ante un grupo de estudiantes brillantes de Stanford con el objetivo de reclutarlos tras la graduación.
¿Qué lección se puede aprender de la historia del equipo ganador en términos de toma de decisiones?
-La lección es que para sobresalir en la toma de decisiones, es importante cuestionar los límites y buscar oportunidades más allá de los recursos iniciales proporcionados.
¿Cuál es el segundo paso para una toma de decisiones efectiva según el discurso?
-El segundo paso es abrazar una premortem, lo que significa considerar cómo podría fracasar una idea antes de seguir un camino determinado.
¿Qué ejemplo histórico se menciona para ilustrar el poder de una premortem?
-Se menciona el ejemplo de la política de recompensa por serpientes venenosas en la India durante la era colonial británica, que resultó en un aumento de la población de serpientes debido a la cría intencional de serpientes para obtener la recompensa.
¿Qué es el 'Efecto Cobra' y cómo se relaciona con la toma de decisiones?
-El 'Efecto Cobra' se refiere a una situación donde una solución aparente a un problema hace que la situación empeore. Ilustra la importancia de una premortem, ya que podría haber evitado este desastre si se hubieran considerado las consecuencias de la política de recompensa.
¿Cuál es el tercer paso para una toma de decisiones efectiva según el discurso?
-El tercer paso es verificar los aspectos básicos antes de tomar una decisión, para asegurarse de que los detalles no成为中国人 el fracaso de la decisión.
¿Qué lección se puede aprender del incidente del Mars Climate Orbiter de NASA?
-La lección es que las fallas en la comunicación y la coordinación, como el uso de diferentes sistemas de medición, pueden tener consecuencias catastróficas y que es crucial verificar los aspectos básicos para evitar errores preventibles.
¿Cómo se relaciona la historia del piloto Sully Sullenberger con la toma de decisiones efectiva?
-La historia de Sully muestra cómo cuestionar los límites, contemplar escenarios de éxito y fracaso, y verificar los detalles básicos pueden llevar a una toma de decisiones efectiva en situaciones extremas.
¿Qué acciones tomó Sully Sullenberger después de que su avión se chocó con un bando de gansos y perdiera los motores?
-Sully asumió el control del avión, consideró varias opciones de aterrizaje, y finalmente decidió aterrizar en el río Hudson, lo que resultó en la supervivencia de todos los 150 pasajeros a bordo.
¿Qué importancia tiene la reflexión en la toma de decisiones según el discurso?
-La reflexión es crucial, ya que permite identificar posibles errores y fallos, y planificar cómo evitarlos o lidiar con ellos, mejorando así la capacidad de formular la acción correcta.
Outlines
💡 Innovación en la enseñanza de emprendimiento
El primer párrafo narra un desafío planteado a estudiantes de la Universidad de Stanford, donde se les da cinco dólares y se les pide que inviertan en una operación que genere el mayor beneficio posible en poco tiempo. El equipo ganador vende los derechos de presentación a una compañía local, destacando la importancia de desafiar las restricciones y pensar más allá de las limitaciones impuestas. Se introduce el concepto de 'thinking outside the box' y se enfatiza la importancia de la toma de decisiones en el éxito de cualquier operación, ya sea en el ámbito empresarial o personal.
🐍 El efecto de la cobra y la importancia del pre-mortem
El segundo párrafo relata el fallo del gobierno británico en la India al ofrecer una recompensa por el exterminio de serpientes venenosas, lo que resultó en el aumento de la población de cobras debido a la cría intencional de estas para obtener la recompensa. Este ejemplo, conocido como 'el efecto de la cobra', ilustra la importancia de realizar un pre-mortem, es decir, contemplar cómo podría fracasar una decisión antes de implementarla, para evitar consecuencias no deseadas.
🚀 La misión fallida de Mars y la revisión de los detalles básicos
El tercer párrafo describe el fracaso de la misión de NASA al planeta Marte debido a un error de medición, donde diferentes equipos utilizaron sistemas de medición incompatibles. Este incidente resalta la importancia de revisar los detalles básicos antes de tomar decisiones críticas, para evitar errores que podrían ser evitados con una simple verificación de la consistencia y la precisión de los datos.
🛫 El aterrizaje del río Hudson y la toma de decisiones bajo presión
El cuarto y último párrafo relata la historia del piloto Sully Sullenberger, quien, tras que su avión fuera afectado por un impacto con un bando de gansos, tuvo que tomar decisiones rápidas y efectivas para garantizar la seguridad de los 150 pasajeros a bordo. El relato muestra cómo desafiar las restricciones, realizar un pre-mortem y revisar los detalles básicos permitió a Sully llevar a cabo un aterrizaje seguro en el río Hudson, salvando vidas y destacando la importancia de una toma de decisiones efectiva en situaciones de alta presión.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Restricciones
💡Pre-mortem
💡Post-mortem
💡Simulaciones empresariales
💡Efecto cobra
💡Desafío de Stanford
💡Verificación de los básicos
💡Innovación
💡Fracaso
💡Decisiones críticas
Highlights
Students at Stanford University were given a challenge to turn five dollars into as much money as possible.
The winning team did not use the five dollars but sold the presentation rights to a company, showcasing innovative thinking.
The importance of challenging constraints in the decision-making process was emphasized.
The speaker runs a leadership development company that simulates real-world decision-making scenarios.
Over 20,000 professionals have participated in the simulations, providing insights into exceptional decision-making.
Three steps for effective decision-making were presented, applicable to various life situations.
The concept of a 'pre-mortem' was introduced to consider potential failure before making a decision.
The 'Cobra effect' illustrates the importance of a pre-mortem in decision-making to avoid unintended consequences.
The Mars Climate Orbiter disaster was used as an example of overlooking basic details leading to failure.
The importance of checking the basics in decision-making to prevent small details from causing failure was stressed.
The story of 'Miracle on the Hudson' was shared as an example of effective decision-making under extreme pressure.
Captain Sullenberger's approach to challenging constraints and considering failure led to a successful landing.
The process of checking basic details was crucial in ensuring the survival of all passengers on the Hudson River.
The speaker encourages challenging constraints, embracing a pre-mortem, and checking the basics for better decision-making.
The presentation concludes with a call to action for attendees to apply these decision-making steps in their lives.
Transcripts
five dollars and a class on
entrepreneurship the class was at
Stanford University and the students
were presented with a challenge the
instructor split the group of students
into teams and then handed each team an
envelope with five dollars of seed
funding for their brand-new operation
they had one task turn the five dollars
into the most money possible in a short
timeframe the final part of this
exercise came early the next week when
each team was required to present to the
rest of the students highlighting what
they had done and the amount of money
they had generated I'm sure you were all
now strategizing in your head what would
you do if given the same choice and I'm
guessing you're wondering well what did
the winning team do would it surprise
you to find out that the winning team
didn't even use the five dollars so what
did they do well they sold the rights to
that presentation to the rest of the
class to a company in town that was more
than happy to pay them for the privilege
of pitching a group of brilliant
Stanford students with the aim of
recruiting them to join their
organization upon graduation
the winning team spent the short amount
of time they had maximizing the real
opportunity they had the presentation
which required challenging the
constraints of the exercise in this case
that five dollars in the envelope
constraints prevent innovative ideas
from ever developing step number one if
you want to excel at decision making oh
we start by challenging the constraints
I find the decision making process
fascinating
I run the strategy team inability we're
a leadership development company based
in Austin Texas that places people in
team-based competitive business
simulations to mimic the decisions they
make in the real world to better prepare
them for the challenges ahead in the
past three years alone over
20,000 professionals in over 30
countries have participated in one of
our simulations we get to work with some
of the most innovative companies on the
planet and we get to witness firsthand
what truly exceptional decision-making
looks like the three steps I present
today are distilled from those
observations and they focus on what to
do before you decide it doesn't matter
if you're a professional on the
precipice of a critical choice or a
parent in the midst of a conundrum
considering the path to take with your
child or student deciding what school to
attend or what major to pursue we all
make thousands of decisions each day and
we are all striving for an edge I
started with that Stanford story because
it highlights something that I see time
and time again in our simulation too
many teams jump right into solving a
problem and they accept all the
constraints we present them with if you
want to excel at decision-making begin
by considering what barriers are holding
you back start there and see what is
possible step number one challenge the
constraints to introduce the second step
I want to share something that probably
won't surprise you one of the most
impactful periods during our simulation
is actually after the experience is over
when people and teams reflect on what
went right and what went wrong we do
this often in life and we call this
exercise a post mortem because we wait
until the event has concluded here's
what our time with leaders around the
world has taught us take this post
mortem approach and flip it around
embrace a pre-mortem consider what
failure would look like before you ever
go down a path it's human nature to
strategize a prep and approach and then
formulate all of the ways that you will
be successful
don't get me wrong it is great to
envision your success and you really
should only pursue decisions that you
believe will have a positive outcome
however I've watched professionals
strategize Grandia
plans of the many ways they will triumph
in our simulation but many times all of
that energy comes at the expense of
spending any time brainstorming how they
might fail and the many ways they might
fail so now let me tell you a story
about snakes the British government and
a striking example of where a pre-mortem
could have averted a decision-making
disaster during the era of
colonialization in India the British
government was concerned about the
number of venomous Cobra snakes in Delhi
after countless failed ideas the
government decided to offer a cash
bounty for every dead Cobra initially
this was an extremely successful
approach as a number of snakes were
killed for this new reward here's the
problem
imaginative individuals started to breed
Cobras explicitly for the income they
can now generate it didn't take long the
government became aware of this and they
quickly scrapped the reward program for
dead Cobras however this led the Cobra
breeders to set their now worthless
snakes free the wild Cobra population
became even worse than it was initially
the apparent solution for the problem
made the situation even worse this is
now unsurprisingly referred to as the
Cobra effect it is also a perfect
illustration of the power of a
pre-mortem before we decide we choose
most often to imagine what success will
look like and then for some reason we
wait until the experience is over and go
over with a fine-tooth comb and conduct
a forensic post-mortem invest the time
upfront contemplating how an idea you
are considering could end in failure
step number two embrace a pre-mortem to
introduce the third step I want to share
a story from 1999 about a NASA mission
to study the climate of the planet Mars
after almost 10 months of travel and a
build cost of over a hundred and twenty
five million dollars
the Mars climate orbiter spacecraft
burned and broke into pieces due to a
navigational mistake the fascinating
thing about this failure was that it was
entirely preventable there were multiple
teams working on the project one of the
teams used the metric system in their
calculation another team provided
crucial data using inches feet and
pounds some of the smartest people on
the planet legitimate rocket scientists
forgot to check that both teams were
using the same unit of measurement and
the consequences were catastrophic thus
far I've stood on this stage and I've
told you that your first step should be
to challenge the constraints to allow
you to think big then I told you that
most of us are predisposed to
contemplate success and instead you need
to balance that and contemplate failure
those first two steps allow you the
capacity to think outside that
proverbial box we hear so much about
but the third step is vital and it's
often overlooked never forget to check
the basics
I have watched senior leaders of Fortune
500 companies concoct truly impressive
strategic plans in our simulation with
multiple levels of complexity in an
effort to win the game but many times
they let small details prove to be their
downfall during one of our simulations
completely unbeknownst to the
participants at the onset of the game
over the course of the experience we're
going to challenge them with unforeseen
external events these events range from
unexpected product recalls to social
media PR disasters all the way to
natural disasters like hurricanes that
put their virtual employees at risk many
times though it is actually the more
simple tasks of bringing a product to
market that trip a team up the steps
required to bring a product to market
actually don't change throughout the
course of our game and they're pretty
basic
but once we introduce intense adverse
events and the clock continues to tick
down
teams then struggle to complete those
basic tasks step number three before you
decide
check the basics never let the minut
details be the downfall of the decision
on your doorstep
we started with $5 ingenuity at Stanford
and then we talked about cobra snakes in
India and then we talked about
spacecrafts destined for Mars three
stories that highlight three steps to
effective decision-making I want to
finish with a story about January 15th
2009 when an aircraft with 150 people on
board took off from New York City
destined for Charlotte North Carolina
three minutes after takeoff an ordinary
flight became anything but the pilot
would later remark that he heard
terrible noises the likes of which he
had never heard before
and it felt as if the bottom had fallen
out of his world what changed the plane
had struck a flock of Canadian geese
causing both engines to shut down it was
at that point that Sully Sullenberger
took control from his copilot and
radioed a mayday call I don't know if I
can highlight any example of challenging
the constraints more than the following
exchange between Sullenberger and air
traffic control he had previously
considered returning to LaGuardia
Airport then he considered nearby
Teterboro Airport in New Jersey before
receiving the following message quote
which runway would you like
captain sullenberger's responds we're
gonna be in the Hudson the response from
air traffic control I'm sorry say again
after the event Sully would say that
given the fact that they were in New
York City one of the most densely
populated places on the planet it was
actually the Hudson River although an
extreme option that represented the best
chance for a safe outcome so he
challenged the constraints and readied
for a water landing at that point his
Prima
began he actually believed that he could
land his plane intact in the river but
what he did next was contemplate how
long his aircraft would float and given
that it was January he considered the
feasibility of a water rescue given the
freezing temperatures after walking
through different scenarios of success
and contemplating different scenarios of
failure he moved forward on his
decision-making path as the aircraft
approached the river he had his copilot
shout out airspeed and altitude to
confirm the critical basic details that
ended up leading to all 150 people on
board surviving after the landing and
during the water rescue there was
actually one final check to be done
captain Sullenberger walked the length
of the flooded aircraft twice to ensure
that no passengers remained on board
before he finally exited the plane each
day we are presented with thousands of
decisions it is my greatest hope that
you never faced anything as perilous as
what Sully faced that cold January day
but no matter the gravity of the
decision you face before you decide
first challenge the constraints to allow
you to think big and think different
next embrace a pre-mortem to mitigate
for potential mistakes and better
formulate the correct course of action
and conclude by checking the basics to
ensure that small details don't prevent
you from accomplishing amazing things
thank you all so much for your time
[Music]
[Applause]
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