Is Donald Trump a good negotiator?

Summary

This transcript explores the concept of negotiation through the lens of US presidential candidate Donald Trump’s self-assessed negotiation skills and expert insights from George Wu and Richard Larrick. While Trump claims to be a great negotiator, the transcript highlights how people often overestimate their negotiation outcomes. Experts argue that successful negotiation requires more than just pushing for personal gain and may involve long-term collaboration. The key takeaway is that treating negotiation as a war, as Trump suggests, can be effective in some situations but may not always foster productive, ongoing partnerships.

Takeaways

• 😀 Donald Trump believes he is a great negotiator and often emphasizes his negotiation skills during his campaign.
• 😀 Trump's self-perception as a negotiator may be self-reinforcing, which can affect his evaluation of negotiation outcomes.
• 😀 George Wu, a negotiation expert, explains that the belief in being a strong negotiator can cloud one’s judgment about a deal’s value.
• 😀 According to Wu and Richard Larrick, people often overestimate how much they gained from a negotiation, believing they earned more than they actually did.
• 😀 On average, negotiators think they earned 56-72% of the pie, but this sum should add up to 100%, indicating overestimation.
• 😀 The value created in a negotiation isn't always clear immediately; it often takes time to realize the true worth of a deal.
• 😀 The Art of the Deal promotes a style where negotiation is seen as pushing and winning, but this may not always lead to the best long-term outcomes.
• 😀 Treating negotiation like war, as suggested in Trump's book, may work in isolated cases but is not ideal for every negotiation scenario.
• 😀 In many negotiations, especially ongoing ones, it's important to maintain a good relationship with counterparts, as the ability to collaborate may be needed again in the future.
• 😀 Successful negotiations often require both parties to work together to implement the deal, a factor that Trump’s approach may overlook.

Q & A

What does Donald Trump claim about his skills as a negotiator?

Donald Trump claims to be a great negotiator and often emphasizes his ability to negotiate effectively, stating that he has negotiated with countries like China and even wrote a book on the subject, 'The Art of the Deal'.

Why is it difficult to assess one's negotiation skills?

It is difficult to assess one's negotiation skills because individuals often have a biased perspective, influenced by the outcome of the negotiation. They may assume they did well if they reached a deal or conclude that no deal was possible if the negotiation failed.

What does George Wu say about the self-reinforcing nature of believing you're a good negotiator?

George Wu explains that believing you're a strong negotiator can reinforce itself. If a deal is made, the negotiator might believe they achieved the best outcome. However, they may be unaware of better options or outcomes that could have been achieved.

What is the main problem found in the research by Wu and Larrick?

Wu and Larrick's research shows that negotiators often overestimate how well they did. They find that each party in a negotiation believes they earned a significant portion of the deal, usually between 56-72%, which adds up to more than 100% when combined.

What does the concept of the 'pie' represent in negotiations?

The 'pie' represents the total value or resources available in a negotiation. Each negotiator comes to the table with an idea of how much of the pie is available for negotiation, and their goal is to secure the largest possible portion.

How does overestimating one's success affect the perception of a negotiation's outcome?

Overestimating one's success can lead to a distorted view of the negotiation's outcome. A negotiator might believe they achieved the best possible result, while in reality, there could have been opportunities for a more favorable deal.

What is the difference between defining the potential value of a deal and realizing its ultimate value?

The potential value of a deal is defined by the terms agreed upon during the negotiation. However, the ultimate value is determined by how well the deal is implemented, which requires ongoing cooperation and execution after the negotiation.

What criticism is made of Donald Trump's negotiation philosophy?

Donald Trump's negotiation philosophy, as described in 'The Art of the Deal', is criticized for treating negotiation like a battle. It encourages a confrontational approach rather than a cooperative one, which may not be effective in all types of negotiations.

When might a war-like approach to negotiation be useful?

A war-like approach to negotiation might be useful in situations like buying a car, where a single, one-off negotiation is happening. However, it is not ideal for longer-term negotiations or scenarios where future collaboration is needed.

Why is a cooperative approach to negotiation sometimes better than a confrontational one?

A cooperative approach is better in negotiations that involve future relationships, as it fosters trust and encourages both parties to work together for mutual benefit, whereas a confrontational approach might damage future opportunities for collaboration.