ICT Forex - Market Maker Series Vol. 4 of 5

The Inner Circle Trader
30 Jul 202129:43

Summary

TLDRIn this educational video, the presenter discusses time and price theory in forex trading, using the GBP/USD hourly chart as an example. The focus is on market maker buy models, optimal trade entries, and how to identify buying opportunities during specific days and times of the week. The video also covers the impact of news events like FOMC on trading and emphasizes the importance of understanding market manipulation by central banks.

Takeaways

  • 📈 The video script is part of a series teaching time and price theory in forex trading, focusing on GBP/USD.
  • 🌟 Emphasis is placed on the importance of applying trading theories to real-time market charts to understand market behavior.
  • 📅 The script discusses the significance of daily and weekly trading patterns, particularly the first half of the week for potential buying opportunities.
  • 🕒 The role of time in trading is highlighted, with specific attention given to New York midnight time as a reference point for chart analysis.
  • 📉 The video explains that in a bullish market, the low of the week typically forms on Monday, Tuesday, or by Wednesday's New York session.
  • 📈 The concept of 'optimal trade entry' is introduced as a pattern that repeats and is associated with time of day and specific price levels.
  • 🚫 The instructor advises against trading during high volatility news events like FOMC for new traders due to the risk of whipsaw.
  • 📊 The script stresses the importance of understanding the relationship between the opening price and buying opportunities below it.
  • 📉 It is suggested that Thursday and Friday tend to create the opposite end of the weekly range, cautioning against buying on these days in a bullish expected week.
  • 🌐 The influence of the opening price at midnight in New York time is discussed, and how buying below that opening price is ideal for accumulating longs.
  • ⏰ The video concludes by emphasizing the importance of time and price in trading, and how they should be used to create a narrative or scenario for trading decisions.

Q & A

  • What is the main focus of the Inner Circle Trader Market Maker series?

    -The main focus of the Inner Circle Trader Market Maker series is teaching time and price theory, applying it to live market conditions, and analyzing the GBP/USD currency pair.

  • Why is it important to watch the series in order?

    -It is important to watch the series in order because each video builds upon the concepts introduced in the previous ones, and watching them out of sequence could lead to confusion or a lack of understanding of the material.

  • What is meant by 'market maker buy model' in the context of the script?

    -The 'market maker buy model' refers to a situation where market makers, or large institutional traders, are accumulating long positions, creating a scenario that is expected to drive the price higher.

  • Why is it recommended to set the chart to New York local time?

    -Setting the chart to New York local time is recommended because it aligns the viewer's perspective with the algorithm's, making it easier to follow the teachings and understand market movements.

  • What is the significance of the daily dividers on the chart?

    -The daily dividers on the chart are significant because they delineate each day's trading activity, allowing for the analysis of the weekly range delivery and identifying potential trading opportunities.

  • What is the 'optimal trade entry' mentioned in the script?

    -The 'optimal trade entry' refers to a specific price pattern that repeats frequently and is considered a high-probability entry point for trades, often associated with time of day and market conditions.

  • Why are Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays important for bullish trading?

    -Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays are important for bullish trading because there is a 70% chance that the low of the week will form on these days, presenting opportunities to buy at lower prices.

  • What is the 'kill zone' mentioned in the script?

    -The 'kill zone' refers to specific time frames during the trading day when significant price movements are expected. For London, it's 2 AM to 5 AM New York time, and for New York, it's 7 AM to 10 AM New York time.

  • Why should traders avoid buying on Thursday and Friday in a bullish expected week?

    -Traders should avoid buying on Thursday and Friday in a bullish expected week because these days tend to create the opposite end of the weekly range, potentially leading to lower prices and less favorable trading conditions.

  • What is the role of the opening price at midnight in New York time?

    -The opening price at midnight in New York time is significant because it serves as a threshold for determining high-probability buying opportunities, especially when the market is trading below this price.

  • How does the element of time influence trading decisions according to the script?

    -The element of time is crucial in trading decisions because it dictates when the market is likely to move in a specific direction. Traders should focus on the first element of time to set up their analysis and expect price movements during certain time windows.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Introduction to Time and Price Theory

The speaker introduces the fourth part of a five-part series on the inner circle trader market maker series, focusing on time and price theory. They emphasize the importance of applying this theory to real-time market conditions, using the British Pound versus US Dollar as an example. The speaker reviews the market maker buy model and explains the significance of daily dividers set to New York local time. They discuss how to identify market trends and trade setups using time and price theory, and how to incorporate these elements into trading strategies.

05:01

📊 Analyzing Weekly Range and Opening Prices

In this segment, the focus is on the weekly range and the importance of the opening price each day. The speaker explains how to identify bullish trends and buying opportunities throughout the week, with specific emphasis on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. They discuss the significance of the opening price at midnight New York time and how it can influence trading decisions. The speaker also shares insights on how to avoid buying on Thursday and Friday to prevent missing trades and protect investments.

10:02

🌐 The Influence of Time Zones on Trading

The speaker delves into the influence of time zones, particularly New York and London, on trading activities. They discuss the concept of 'kill zones' and how these time frames present optimal opportunities for trading. The speaker explains how smart money accumulates longs and the importance of buying below the opening price during specific time frames. They also touch on the potential for profit-taking models and how to anticipate market movements based on time and price analysis.

15:02

📉 Avoiding High Volatility Trading Days

Here, the speaker advises against trading on high volatility days, such as those influenced by FOMC announcements, for developing students. They stress the importance of understanding the element of time in trading and how it is crucial for reading price movements. The speaker also discusses the concept of 'dead time' and how the market behaves during these periods, emphasizing the need to anticipate consolidation after significant price movements.

20:04

📈 Time and Price Theory in Practice

The speaker applies time and price theory to the current market scenario, explaining how to identify the best times to buy based on the opening price and time of day. They discuss the importance of focusing on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday for bullish trading and how to use optimal trade entry points to increase the probability of successful trades. The speaker also highlights the need to have a trading plan and to understand the narrative of market movements based on time and price.

25:05

🌟 Market Manipulation and Algorithmic Trading

In the final paragraph, the speaker addresses the misconception that retail traders can significantly influence market prices through buying and selling pressure. They assert that markets are manipulated and controlled, and that the state of a country's economy and the actions of central banks are not determined by retail investors. The speaker reinforces the idea that understanding time and price theory is essential for successful trading, as it allows traders to anticipate how the algorithm will move prices within specific time frames.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Time and Price Theory

Time and Price Theory is a concept used in trading to analyze market movements based on specific times and price levels. In the video, the speaker teaches how to apply this theory to the GBP/USD currency pair, using the hourly chart to demonstrate how market behavior can be anticipated by considering the time of day and price levels. This theory is central to the video's theme as it provides a framework for understanding market conditions and making trading decisions.

💡Market Maker

A market maker is an individual or institution that provides liquidity in a market by facilitating trades by buying and selling securities. In the context of the video, the speaker discusses a 'market maker buy model underway,' which refers to a situation where a market maker is accumulating a position, indicating a potential upcoming price increase. This concept is integral to understanding the strategies discussed for trading in the forex market.

💡SMT Diversions

SMT Diversions likely refers to 'Smart Money Trades' or significant market movements that deviate from the norm, often influenced by large institutional investors. The speaker mentions these in relation to market movements that have cleared out daily sell stops, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. This term is used to highlight the influence of large players on market dynamics, which is a key aspect of the video's discussion on market analysis.

💡Daily Cell Stops

Daily cell stops are a type of order placed by traders to limit potential losses. In the video, the speaker mentions that 'we've cleared out daily cell stops,' indicating that the market has moved past the levels where these stop orders were placed, likely leading to a change in market direction. This concept is important for understanding how stop orders can influence market behavior and the timing of trades.

💡Consolidation

Consolidation in trading refers to a period where an asset's price remains relatively stable and moves within a certain range. The speaker discusses a consolidation phase in the GBP/USD chart, suggesting that after a period of stability, the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This concept is crucial for identifying potential entry and exit points in the market.

💡Relative Equal Highs

Relative equal highs are price levels on a chart where the price has previously reached similar highs. The speaker mentions aiming for a run 'above these relative equal highs' as part of the market maker buy model. This term is used to identify potential resistance levels that, if breached, could signal a significant price movement, which is a key element in the video's trading strategy discussion.

💡New York Midnight Time

New York Midnight Time refers to the start of a new trading day at midnight New York time, which is used as a reference point for setting up charts and analyzing market data. The speaker emphasizes setting charts to New York local time to align with the teaching and to understand market movements better. This concept is important for synchronizing market analysis across different geographical locations.

💡Weekly Range

The weekly range is the difference between the highest and lowest prices an asset reaches in a week. The speaker discusses the delivery of the weekly range and the expectations for a bullish week in GBP/USD. Understanding the weekly range is essential for strategic planning and setting targets for trades over the course of a week.

💡Optimal Trade Entry

Optimal trade entry refers to the most favorable point at which to enter a trade. The speaker mentions looking for optimal trade entry points, such as when the price trades below a certain level during specific time frames. This concept is critical for the video's theme as it provides a method for identifying high-probability trade setups.

💡FOMC

FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee, which is responsible for managing monetary policy in the United States. The speaker discusses the impact of FOMC announcements on market volatility and trading strategies. Understanding the influence of FOMC decisions is important for anticipating market reactions and managing risk during high-impact news events.

💡Kill Zone

A 'kill zone' in the context of the video likely refers to specific time frames during the trading day when significant price movements are expected. The speaker mentions the London and New York 'kill zones' as periods of high market activity. Recognizing these periods is essential for timing trades to align with expected market volatility.

Highlights

Introduction to the Inner Circle Trader Market Maker Series, focusing on time and price theory.

Analyzing the GBP/USD hourly chart to apply time and price theory to current market conditions.

Explanation of the importance of setting charts to New York local time for consistency.

Teaching the concept of daily dividers to understand market movements throughout the week.

Discussing the bullish trend of the GBP/USD from July 26 to July 30, 2021.

Highlighting the 70% chance for the low of the week to form on Monday, Tuesday, or by Wednesday's New York session in a bullish market.

Emphasizing the significance of buying opportunities on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays in a bullish week.

Introducing the concept of optimal trade entry and its relation to time of day.

The role of the opening price at midnight New York time in accumulating longs.

Avoiding buying on Thursdays and Fridays in a bullish expected week to protect from market moves.

Teaching the relationship between the opening price, time of day, and buying opportunities.

Using the 15-minute time frame to identify optimal trade entries and short-term lows.

The significance of the London and New York 'kill zones' and their impact on price movements.

Warning against trading during high volatility news drivers like FOMC for new traders.

The importance of the element of time in reading price and market direction.

Explanation of how markets are manipulated and controlled, not by retail buying and selling pressure.

Final thoughts on studying market behavior and the reliability of the taught methods over time.

Transcripts

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oh

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all right folks welcome back this is

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volume four a continuing series of five

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parts

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on the inner circle trader market maker

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series

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i'm gonna be teaching time and price

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theory

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all right keeping in sync with our

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present market conditions and what has

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transpired this week in

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pound dollar no better way to learn how

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to do something than to

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apply it to a chart that's actually

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trading and you watch unfold this week

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we have the hourly chart here on british

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pound versus us dollar

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and with all the things that were

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mentioned covered in the previous

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volumes of this series if you haven't

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watched obviously

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part one two and three of the series

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then you should not be watching this

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video yet because it's kind of

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requirement before you get to this

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but the backdrop behind it is we've had

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smt diversions

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down here we've cleared out daily

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cell stops so we've accumulated we have

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a market maker buy model underway

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and if that's what you're expecting and

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your analysis leads to

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a run above these relative equal highs

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and above the original consolidation

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here in the market maker buy model

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let's incorporate the elements of time

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and price

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so now i have the daily dividers on and

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how i did this in case you're wondering

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if you're new

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all i did was create a vertical line and

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dropped it on

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the zero zero level

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on the time axis down here that's going

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to be

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midnight new york time if you have your

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time

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it's important that you have your chart

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set to new york local time

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that'll make understanding what i teach

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easy to follow along because your charts

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will look like mine

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and also you'll be looking at through

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the lens of the algorithm

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so new york midnight time

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is delineated each day so we're looking

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at obviously today's

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trading in friday thursday's trading

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wednesdays trading

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tuesday and then finally monday's

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trading of this week

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now when you're looking at this go back

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and

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look at your notes and we've outlined

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how

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this week of trading july 26 2021

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to july 30th 2021 was bullish

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four pound dollar i made the case for

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why it was bullish

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i pointed to where it was going to go

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how it was going to trade there and we

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have it here

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now in hindsight so if you look at

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each individual day as

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one-fifth of the weekly range each of

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these days have specific characteristics

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that are

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repeating in nature now they're not

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always exactly the same

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each week but what i'm going to teach

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you here i've

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covered in other lessons in this youtube

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channel

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but for continuity sake and kind of like

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bring everything that you should have

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collected along your

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journey through all my videos here

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we're looking at the delivery of the

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weekly range and if we're bullish

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the expectation is that there's a 70

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percent

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chance that the low of the week

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is going to form on monday

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tuesday or by wednesday's new york

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session now right away you're probably

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thinking oh that's

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that's a pretty wide envelope of time

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you got a lot of ways to you get it

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wrong

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well consider what we have here we have

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monday's trading

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we're already in a consolidation and we

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left the consolidation

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so is it likely to come back down

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and go below this low here when it's

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already taken out a low

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there remember what i've taught you so

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far in this series

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before price movements that are

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directionally driven

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typically opposing stop losses

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will be taken and then price will be

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allowed to deliver

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in your expected direction in layman's

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terms

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if you're bullish look for swing lows to

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get traded below

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and then it starts to move higher short

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term low

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trades below it then it starts to trade

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higher okay

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each day of this week was

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predominantly bullish until we get to

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friday obviously that ends the week

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so if we look at a open high low close

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perspective of the week we see the week

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opening here

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small little movement lower creating the

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low of the week on monday

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a retracement and a buying opportunity

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on tuesday a retracement buying

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opportunity on wednesday

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and then thursday creating a short-term

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high of the week

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and then friday we went just above the

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thursday high but not by much

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and then we traded off the high and

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we're probably going to close

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anywhere between 139 20 and 139 big

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figure

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okay so going back to what i mentioned

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here and what i've taught in other

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lessons on this youtube channel is that

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we want to be buying on monday

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tuesday and at the best case scenario if

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we missed buying opportunities on monday

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and tuesday

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we want to try to buy on wednesday in

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the new york session okay

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but we'll talk more about other things

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that were factors

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this week as we go into the series in

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part five but

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for now i want to bring in the opening

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price each day

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here at midnight so we have this opening

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price here extended out in time

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how far is this going out it's just

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showing until 10 a.m

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you can take it out till 11 a.m which

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basically is the heart of london close

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so the idea is if you're bullish you

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want to be buying at or below

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or very close to the opening price

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each day we see it trade below the

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opening price and rallies up

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day here opens and trades down all

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through london

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and then rallies higher on the day

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opening price here

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we initially start to go higher but then

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we trade down below it

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and then we have another whip saw below

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the low here on fomc

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and then trades higher and then on

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thursday we're not incorporating the

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opening price on thursday and this is

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for your notes make sure you

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write this down we're only looking for

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the influence

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of the opening price and buying below or

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at it

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in a bullish expected week on monday

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tuesday and wednesday

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thursday and friday they tend to create

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the opposite end of the weekly range

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okay so try not to be looking to be a

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buyer on thursday

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try not to be a buyer on friday with the

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weekly range expectation if you do that

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you're going to miss trades yes but by

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far and large you're going to protect

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yourself

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by avoiding being a buyer in a market

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move it's already been moving

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okay obviously there's going to be days

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where it just continues on thursday and

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then friday really explodes even higher

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i've seen it happen in my own trading

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i've missed pretty big moves on friday

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but i generally keep a small piece on as

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i

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illustrated this week with trading the

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fomc

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day so i bought on this day i bought on

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this day here

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and i recorded and shared the fmc trade

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and put it on my telegram channel

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you can see that and left a small piece

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on it got me out at 139.50 on a limit so

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you can design this

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any way you want you can create a model

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where you get in

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on a tuesday after you've seen monday

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prove that it's wanting to go higher and

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then trades down below some short-term

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low

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picks up the stops and we have optimal

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trade entry here

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and you can be a buyer there and

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basically allow money to trade without

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you

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or if you're hardcore and you're in

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consolidation like this and you think

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you are in a

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move where it's here and you start to go

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higher rate from monday's beginning of

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trading

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then obviously you can put a small

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little position on there

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and then consider maybe taking a larger

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position once you have a better

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confirmation of the weekly range

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unfolding to the upside and a

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retracement down

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as a new student or a new trader when

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you see a day like this

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and most of you probably have one in

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five minute charts up on your chart

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you see this decline like it's heart

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stopping

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especially if you don't have any

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experience you're thinking there's no

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way i could be a buyer or that

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well we have relative equal highs the

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bottom line is it's going down to pick

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up the sell stops

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flood the market with sell stops

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allowing smart money to buy those sell

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stops

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and then it takes off and goes higher

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each day or this week

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between monday and wednesday is offered

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a buying opportunity

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to get us above our target that was

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established for the weekly range

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was trading above here for the buy stops

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so let's strip this down and go a little

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bit closer

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so we're zoomed in on an hourly chart

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you can see here's monday's trading

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tuesday's trading sweeping below that

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short term low there

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and rallying and we drop down here on

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fomc wednesday

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it starts to come down and give us a

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buying opportunity here but then on

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fomc two o'clock in the afternoon new

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york time

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the market whips down knocking out

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traders that would have already

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trailed their stop loss right below that

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low it gets

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tagged and then it runs aggressively

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higher above that

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original consolidation which is that red

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line here so above that red line

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is our buy stops that we were aiming for

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that i started teaching you about in

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earlier parts of the series

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in the earlier portion of the week

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then ultimately we trade creating a

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short-term high on thursday

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slightly higher on friday and then

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profit-taking

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model kicks in and you can see it

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returning back to

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that original consolidation

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study the relationship of the opening

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price at midnight in new york time

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and how buying below that opening price

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is ideal this is where smart money

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accumulates longs

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this is where smart money accumulates

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longs and this is where smart money

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accumulates longs

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they distribute their longs on thursday

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and friday if it offers higher prices

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and then you expect price to come off

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that and trade back down into the range

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which is the highest high formed

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intra-week

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to the low and we're seeing that here

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now if you look at it on a 15-minute

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time frame

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i'm going to incorporate day of week and

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time of day

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here's that opening price at midnight

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the market trades down creating the low

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in london

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rallies comes back down in for an

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optimal trade entry

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if you don't know what optimal trade

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entry is there is lots of videos on this

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youtube channel

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and you can study and find out what that

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is it's a really simple pattern repeats

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all the time

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so it creates an awful tradition right

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there you can be a buyer there

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and then trades back down again we have

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a short term low here

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and a short term low here and this low

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is during

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new york open so short term low here

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to high down in and taking out a short

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term low

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what's occurring they're taking out

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short term stops right below here

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and optimal trade entry rallies in new

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york and continues higher

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the next day the market trades back down

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into the range that was established

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in the previous day this right here is

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the reason why

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most of the time i'm leaving monday's

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trading to

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everyone else because if i establish

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along here

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and it starts to rally up i may make the

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mistake of

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trailing my stop-loss up to here and

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then they take it on tuesday and then i

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gotta go back in and reposition myself

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so i wanna study on monday what they do

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and then

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on tuesday generally that's my action

play12:53

day

play12:54

and you can see there's a lot more

play12:55

animation in price on tuesday

play12:58

but look what they do they drop it down

play13:00

into london creating the low of the day

play13:02

taking out this short term low again the

play13:04

previous day

play13:05

and if you look at the low to high

play13:08

you're getting optimal trade entry there

play13:09

the key is ote or optimal trade entry

play13:12

is associated with time of day

play13:16

a kill zone these little hyphenated

play13:19

segments of annotation on the charts

play13:23

london is delineated by 2 a.m to 5 a.m

play13:27

new york time so again if you're setting

play13:29

your time on trading view to

play13:31

local new york time always set it to

play13:33

that no matter what

play13:35

location you are in the world always

play13:38

look at trading view

play13:40

through the lens of new york period

play13:43

if you do that everything i teach you

play13:45

will make perfect sense you won't be

play13:46

confused

play13:49

but london kill zone is two o'clock in

play13:50

the morning to five a.m

play13:52

new york is seven a.m to ten a.m

play13:56

and if you want to use the new york

play13:59

session time

play14:00

not the new york kill zone the new york

play14:01

session time is 8 30 in the morning till

play14:03

11 a.m new york time

play14:07

but each turning point that occurs at

play14:09

these kill zones

play14:11

sets up a really nice run in price see

play14:13

that little short term low right there

play14:15

it trades down below it and takes off

play14:18

so we're seeing this element of time

play14:22

which is also associated with the day of

play14:25

the week because

play14:25

day of the week is still an element of

play14:29

time

play14:30

it's a it's a calendar reference point

play14:32

to time

play14:33

it's a block of time that we call

play14:37

monday tuesday wednesday and so forth

play14:40

so the element of time and price is

play14:43

important because

play14:44

you need to focus and expect your

play14:46

analysis

play14:47

to be rooted on the first element which

play14:50

is time

play14:51

the markets will not generally give you

play14:54

setups that pan out

play14:56

between these two windows

play15:00

there'll be a quiet little period even

play15:02

though we have a nice run in here

play15:03

sometimes that will occur

play15:04

most of the time it won't be like that

play15:06

it'll be consolidation

play15:09

and then after running close you get

play15:11

these consolidations like this

play15:13

this is like dead time again same here

play15:17

dead time same here dead time

play15:20

so we're looking to engage if we're

play15:23

bullish like we were

play15:24

teaching in this series pound dollars

play15:26

bullish

play15:27

monday creates the low of the week

play15:28

tuesday creates a buying opportunity

play15:30

new york on wednesday nice buying

play15:33

opportunity but you have to have a wide

play15:34

stop

play15:35

and if you get stopped out here you can

play15:38

use

play15:39

obviously other approaches to getting

play15:42

involved

play15:43

with the marketplace with fomc but i'm

play15:46

going to teach you

play15:47

and remind you that you should not be

play15:48

trying to trade fomc if you're a

play15:50

developing student

play15:50

because it's too much of a whipsaw and

play15:53

you're going to get caught up with the

play15:54

short-term volatility

play15:55

and you're going to be more paralyzed by

play15:58

fear even with a demo account

play15:59

and left confused than that of if you

play16:01

just simply study it from the sidelines

play16:02

and don't engage it at all

play16:04

okay but the element of time is the

play16:08

first

play16:09

crucial factor to reading price

play16:13

price when it gets to these levels

play16:16

that we look for below the opening price

play16:19

okay what price is important below the

play16:20

opening price

play16:21

what time of day during london open this

play16:24

these are buying opportunities here

play16:28

this low trading below this low is a

play16:30

reference in terms of

play16:32

price by itself doesn't mean anything

play16:35

sometimes you can see a short term low

play16:37

like this

play16:39

we have these lows here all three of

play16:40

them one two three look at this we went

play16:42

down below it

play16:43

so that's one of those times where ict

play16:45

talks about oh this is when

play16:46

we went below the lows and expect price

play16:48

to blast off

play16:50

no because we're inside of a time window

play16:52

that's not

play16:54

important it's not salient to the

play16:57

underlying

play16:58

bias because it's dead the

play17:01

time when the algorithm is sitting still

play17:03

it's going to just

play17:05

mark time it's all it's doing going

play17:07

sideways just like it does here

play17:10

and like it does here okay so the

play17:12

element of time

play17:14

is crucial because that's when the

play17:15

market will

play17:17

start to spool that means the market

play17:20

will start unraveling

play17:21

in one direction or another just start

play17:23

shooting off into a specific direction

play17:25

aiming for a particular price but

play17:29

when you're looking for price to behave

play17:32

a certain way

play17:34

it needs to be inside of one of these

play17:36

kill zones for the highest probability

play17:40

after running close each day you should

play17:42

train yourself to anticipate

play17:44

consolidation unless we get something

play17:47

like fomc

play17:48

days which is obviously you know this is

play17:51

something that is not an every week

play17:56

instance but you need to be looking at

play17:58

your academic calendar because if you

play17:59

don't

play18:00

you'll be caught off guard with these

play18:01

types of events and

play18:03

either want to be protecting yourself by

play18:05

not being in the marketplace or taking

play18:07

considerable amount of your position off

play18:09

ahead of it

play18:10

so that way if it does reverse on you

play18:12

you've paid yourself

play18:14

but time is the first element keying up

play18:18

on

play18:18

monday tuesday or wednesday for your

play18:20

trading now this is a bearish week

play18:22

same thing we'd be expecting a high to

play18:24

form on monday tuesday or wednesday by

play18:26

new york session

play18:29

but after wednesday's new york session

play18:33

probabilities start to fall off

play18:35

precipitously about catching

play18:37

shorts or trying to nail the high the

play18:39

day when you're in bearish market

play18:41

environments

play18:42

this week we're going to stick with the

play18:43

narrative that we've outlined initially

play18:45

is that this week was bullish we've

play18:48

outlined why

play18:50

i gave you examples on telegram

play18:53

and i showed you the fruits of it

play18:56

using this information this little

play19:00

exclamation point is just highlighting

play19:02

the release of fomc data

play19:04

okay this is two o'clock in the

play19:05

afternoon new york time

play19:07

expect the volatility and even though we

play19:10

had

play19:11

the run below these lows here and start

play19:13

the rally up this is classic fomc

play19:15

this is exactly what non-farm payroll

play19:17

does generally too

play19:19

so if this was 8 30 in the morning on

play19:21

friday on non-farm payroll

play19:23

this is what you would expect to see on

play19:24

non-farm payroll if you're in an

play19:26

underlyingly bullish market

play19:27

same scenario so i'm but i digress

play19:31

so looking at this from the element of

play19:34

time and price

play19:35

we know how to group an expectation

play19:39

and perception of analysis when we look

play19:42

at

play19:42

time we know there's so there should be

play19:45

something occurring

play19:47

but we have to anticipate that something

play19:52

rooting it to the bias what's the bias

play19:54

do we think the weekly range is going to

play19:55

be higher or lower

play19:57

we don't care about that weekly closing

play19:59

price i don't care where it's going to

play20:01

close

play20:01

where is the volatility going to send

play20:03

price mostly higher

play20:06

or mostly lower over the course of the

play20:07

days of this week

play20:09

if i'm thinking bullish i'm going to be

play20:11

focusing on monday tuesday and wednesday

play20:14

because i know the algorithm generally

play20:16

presents the

play20:17

really choice setups if it's bullish to

play20:20

be a buyer on monday tuesday and or

play20:22

wednesday but

play20:24

by wednesday's new york session now

play20:27

because wednesday had a high volatility

play20:28

news driver with fomc at two o'clock in

play20:31

the afternoon

play20:32

that gives us a little bit more energy

play20:35

likely

play20:36

after two o'clock on fmc's release

play20:40

and we see that happen here and it rolls

play20:42

over into thursday's trading and

play20:44

so on but knowing

play20:47

where you should be trying to buy if

play20:49

you're bullish you're trying to get

play20:50

below the opening price at midnight

play20:52

that's that's a threshold

play20:55

that makes your trade higher in

play20:58

probability

play20:58

doesn't guarantee profitability it just

play21:00

means it's higher probability

play21:02

that you're buying a really cheap market

play21:06

and you're buying it when smart money

play21:08

buys it

play21:11

you're looking at prices that trade

play21:14

either to an optimal trade entry to an

play21:16

order block or runs out

play21:17

stops if we're bullish

play21:21

when you're trading your your plan okay

play21:23

you have to have plan right

play21:24

the plan is every time you create a

play21:26

short term low

play21:28

notice to see if it does a run below

play21:30

that while you're bullish

play21:32

inside of one of these kill zones

play21:35

relative equal lows you see that you

play21:38

trade down below that

play21:39

in london and below the opening price by

play21:41

itself that's a buy

play21:43

now you probably won't trust that

play21:45

because you want to have indicators you

play21:47

want to have moving averages

play21:48

you want to have all these other things

play21:50

that you put your faith in

play21:52

all that faith that you established on

play21:55

retail logic

play21:56

and indicators and harmonic this and

play21:58

supply zone that

play22:00

just reappropriate those

play22:04

faith tendencies only what i'm showing

play22:08

you here because this is the truth

play22:10

it's not about me okay it's not it's not

play22:13

true because michael says it

play22:15

it's true because this is the truth and

play22:17

i'm just the

play22:19

sounding board for it okay once you

play22:22

understand this

play22:24

and you start studying it like this

play22:26

you're gonna see

play22:27

it's always been there always

play22:30

but these three days and this element of

play22:34

time

play22:36

that is crucial and what price where's

play22:39

the price

play22:40

factor in price is when you're taking

play22:42

out stops returning to an order block or

play22:44

an optimal trade entry

play22:46

that's it there's three little things

play22:47

there okay three little things that you

play22:49

need to worry about

play22:50

and not all three form at the same time

play22:55

so you need not worry about well how do

play22:57

i know if it's going to do this and how

play22:58

do i know if it's going to do that

play23:00

well look at you have a low here forming

play23:03

and then it trades down below it again

play23:06

that might be what you're waiting for

play23:07

for your model you may not want to trade

play23:09

older blocks you may not want to trade

play23:11

optimal trade entries

play23:12

you just want to see a low and then wait

play23:14

and see if it runs below that low

play23:15

during london at a time when we're

play23:17

bullish on a tuesday

play23:19

or wednesday and you could be a buyer

play23:21

there expect price to rally up to

play23:23

10 o'clock to noon which is london close

play23:27

and that's usually when it's the

play23:28

opposite end of the daily range don't

play23:30

take my word for it go through your

play23:31

charts and study it

play23:33

that's what the algorithm will generally

play23:35

try to do

play23:36

on mondays tuesdays and wednesdays when

play23:39

the market is

play23:40

predominantly bullish for the week

play23:44

now obviously if there's an objective

play23:48

that we're looking for on the week and

play23:51

it hits it on tuesday okay so we

play23:55

bullish on monday and tuesday it rallies

play23:57

up say it went above

play23:59

that red line which is that that buy

play24:01

stop

play24:02

liquidity pool that i've outlined

play24:04

earlier in this series

play24:05

and say it ran through that 20 30 pips

play24:09

that would mean we have the potential

play24:11

for the market to go into consolidation

play24:12

the rest of the week or have a deep

play24:13

retracement

play24:15

whereas we see on tuesday we didn't get

play24:17

to the high yet and sweep those stops

play24:19

yet

play24:19

on wednesday we didn't get to it until

play24:21

here after fmc

play24:23

but did it do it convincingly above no

play24:26

it just went

play24:27

really lightly above shallow shallow run

play24:30

right there

play24:30

and then later in the day when nobody's

play24:32

really paying attention

play24:34

it starts to rally straight on up

play24:37

so you gotta factor the element of price

play24:41

for where you think price is going to

play24:42

reach for

play24:44

so time and price theory you're blending

play24:48

these things together to come up with a

play24:52

narrative that you want to follow and

play24:55

you want to see if price is sticking

play24:57

to that narrative that you've outlined

play25:00

or

play25:01

scenario i guess it would be a better

play25:03

analogy you're creating a scenario where

play25:05

you think

play25:06

based on these times of the day and

play25:07

these days of the week

play25:09

and the logic that this market's likely

play25:11

to go higher to where

play25:12

that weekly by stop liquidity pool

play25:16

i've outlined in this series that we've

play25:19

been harping on

play25:20

every time we had a video

play25:23

we're watching how all these things come

play25:25

together to give

play25:26

us a narrative that is delivering in

play25:30

price

play25:31

and nothing here's random it's exactly

play25:33

how it should be

play25:34

if it's bullish when should it create a

play25:37

low to go higher

play25:38

in one of these if not all of them

play25:40

london and new york kill zones

play25:42

just look at the chart right here these

play25:45

windows of

play25:46

time i taught this over 10 years ago

play25:49

for free right on baby pips taught it

play25:52

and they still worked today they were

play25:54

working before i taught it

play25:56

they're going to keep working okay the

play25:58

reason why is because the flows that

play26:00

come in

play26:01

at that time of the day creates the

play26:04

opportunity

play26:06

for the algorithm to move around the

play26:08

flows or buying volume and selling

play26:10

volume

play26:10

is not moving price the algorithm

play26:14

is operating on the time window it knows

play26:16

the

play26:17

trading volume increases then it's not a

play26:20

derivative

play26:21

of okay lots of buyers are coming in so

play26:23

i'm gonna

play26:25

start seeing price go higher because of

play26:26

that no that's not what it is

play26:29

and i don't care who told you otherwise

play26:30

it's not what's going on

play26:33

these markets are absolutely manipulated

play26:35

controlled

play26:36

period the

play26:40

the state of a country's economy

play26:43

and the solvency of a central bank

play26:46

is not going to be put in the hands okay

play26:49

of

play26:50

reddit i mean if everybody around the

play26:53

world said hey look

play26:53

here's what we're going to do we're all

play26:55

going to buy the british pound

play26:58

and we're going to keep buying and no

play26:59

matter what

play27:01

you really think that's going to be the

play27:03

catalyst for the british pound to go up

play27:05

and keep on going up

play27:06

no matter what no way

play27:10

but if you read social media today

play27:13

that's what they want you to believe

play27:15

that stocks are going to go to the moon

play27:16

because

play27:17

a handful of people on reddit are buying

play27:19

it that's not

play27:21

what these markets are doing okay these

play27:24

are

play27:25

the commodity these are the products

play27:28

of a central bank their business is to

play27:31

control

play27:32

everything everything

play27:36

and we as traders will never absolutely

play27:39

never ever ever push price higher or

play27:42

lower

play27:42

because of buying and selling pressure

play27:45

it's not going to happen

play27:46

if they don't want to go higher it

play27:48

doesn't matter how many people buy it

play27:49

it isn't going higher that's it

play27:56

so on the latter part of the week you

play27:58

can see here on

play28:00

wednesday's fmc we rolled into

play28:02

thursday's trading

play28:04

nice little optimal trade entry here on

play28:05

london sticking to the theme

play28:07

and we ran up 80 pips above

play28:12

the 139 big figure the 139 10 level is

play28:15

where that bicep liquidity pool was

play28:16

basically linked to on the weekly chart

play28:20

so we went 70 pips

play28:23

above that that's a pretty good run and

play28:26

here it is

play28:27

we're on thursday in new york session

play28:29

and then finally

play28:30

london close creates the high the day

play28:33

starts to drift lower

play28:34

and then finally one more pump up in

play28:37

london

play28:38

on friday running just a little bit

play28:41

above thursday's high

play28:43

and then we have a breakdown and we'll

play28:44

look at that on a five minute chart

play28:46

but we'll look at that when we get into

play28:47

the last part of the series

play28:50

but each day has signatures that it

play28:55

follows responds to in terms of time

play28:59

and price it's not

play29:02

something that is random it's

play29:05

fitting specific logic that

play29:08

has been taught in this youtube channel

play29:11

i can't take

play29:12

over 100 some different videos and

play29:14

compress it into one

play29:16

video and say this is all the moving

play29:18

parts all at one time

play29:20

but everything i'm showing you here has

play29:22

been amplified in other teachings

play29:24

introduced obviously in teachings and

play29:27

also

play29:28

shown by example and now here it is

play29:31

again

play29:32

being shown to you where it's still

play29:34

working we're going to take a closer

play29:36

look

play29:37

into lower time frames in the final

play29:40

volume on this

play29:41

series until then be safe

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