JOSH BROWN says "TIGHTENING CYCLE HASN'T CAUSED ANYTHING TO BLOW UP"

Summary

On 'Halftime Report,' Scott Wapner and guests discuss the record run for stocks amid a bull market, with major inflows and Dow Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq reaching new highs. The conversation covers Bank of America's equity inflows, the impact of the Fed's loosening cycle, and money market funds. Guests weigh in on reallocating investments, with a focus on equities, and the potential for a market rally as professional money managers chase returns. The show also analyzes specific stocks and sectors, offering technical insights on PayPal, Cisco, and real estate ETFs using the Ichimoku indicator.

Takeaways

• 📈 The stock market is experiencing a record run with major inflows, hinting at a strong bull market.
• 💹 The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are all extending their record highs.
• 💰 Bank of America reported the third-largest equity inflows in history, with nearly $21 billion invested in US equities.
• 📉 Despite the largest decline since August 2021, markets have shown resilience, suggesting confidence in the market's upward trajectory.
• 🏦 Money market funds hold a substantial amount of capital, indicating a potential for significant investment into riskier assets.
• 📊 The S&P 500 has seen a 19% increase year-to-date, reflecting a robust performance despite economic uncertainties.
• 🔍 There's a strategic reallocation occurring from cash and fixed income to equities, indicating a shift in investor sentiment.
• 🌐 Positive news from China about economic stimulus and regulatory support has boosted global markets, particularly cyclical stocks.
• 📱 Technology stocks like PayPal, which Josh Brown recommended, are performing well and are seen as strong investment picks.
• 🏢 Discussions suggest that financials, industrials, and materials sectors are attractive due to their valuations and potential for growth.

Q & A

What is the current status of the stock market according to the discussion?

The stock market is experiencing a record run with major inflows and is in a bullish state, extending record highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P, and Nasdaq.

What was the biggest equity inflow recorded by Bank of America recently?

The biggest equity inflow since October 2022, and the third largest in their data history, occurred recently with almost billion dollars going into US equities.

Why are investors showing confidence in the market despite the economic slowdown?

Investors are confident due to the Federal Reserve's loosening cycle, absence of a recession, and no major market-disrupting events. Additionally, the market has seen a 19% increase year-to-date on the S&P.

What does the discussion suggest about the future of money market funds?

Money market funds currently hold a large amount of money, but with the Federal Reserve cutting rates, there is an expectation that investors will start reallocating their funds from these risk-free assets into equities.

What is the significance of the Federal Reserve's rate cut on the market according to the discussion?

The Federal Reserve's rate cut is seen as a tailwind for stocks, encouraging a major reallocation out of cash and fixed income into equities, which is expected to push the market higher.

What is the current stance of the guests on the potential of equities in the market?

The guests have a positive stance on equities, expecting them to perform well due to the reallocation of funds from cash and fixed income, as well as the accommodative stance of the Federal Reserve.

What is the consensus on the impact of geopolitical risks and upcoming elections on the market?

While there is an acknowledgment that geopolitical risks and upcoming elections could cause some volatility, the general consensus is that these factors might only cause a slight shift in risk appetite rather than a significant downturn.

What are the implications of China's central bank stimulus for the market?

China's central bank stimulus is seen as a significant positive for the market, as it could lead to a 'sugar rush' of investment in cyclical stocks and potentially signal a broader recovery in the Chinese economy.

What are the recommended strategies for investors according to the discussion?

Investors are advised to consider reallocation strategies, potentially moving into equities, credit, or other areas of the market that offer better returns than current cash holdings, especially with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts.

What are the final stock picks mentioned by the guests?

The final stock picks mentioned by the guests include PayPal, Cisco Systems, Citizens Financial, and a few others, with each being chosen based on various market indicators and personal analysis.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Stock Market Bull Run and Investor Confidence

The paragraph discusses the ongoing bull market, with record inflows into stocks as investors seem to be embracing the idea of not fighting the Federal Reserve's policies. The conversation includes financial experts such as Josh Brown and Brian Bsky, who analyze market trends, equity inflows, and the potential for reallocation of funds from cash and fixed income to equities. They also touch on the impact of the Fed's rate cut on investment strategies and the overall positive sentiment in the market, despite some historical volatility.

05:00

💼 Reallocation of Cash and Market Outlook

This section delves into the potential for a significant reallocation of cash from fixed income to equities, with experts like Jim Lenthal and Brian Bsky sharing their views. They discuss the market's performance, the possibility of a broader move to equities outside of concentrated areas, and the potential impact of geopolitical risks and upcoming elections on investment strategies. The conversation also includes insights from Rick Rieder, CIO of fixed income at Black Rock, who suggests that despite rich valuations, stocks could still perform well due to the substantial amount of cash on the sidelines.

10:01

🏦 China's Economic Policies and Global Market Impact

The paragraph focuses on China's central bank and financial regulations, highlighting the country's efforts to stimulate its economy and promote capital markets. The discussion includes the potential for increased mergers and acquisitions, lower mortgage rates, and the overall positive impact of these policies on global markets, particularly on cyclical stocks. The experts also touch on the importance of China's economic engine to the world market and how its policies could influence investment decisions in various sectors.

15:02

📊 Market Analysis and Technical Indicators

This section provides a detailed analysis of the stock market's performance, using technical indicators like the ichimoku indicator to evaluate stocks and ETFs. The discussion covers various sectors, including technology, financials, and materials, and how they are performing in the market. The experts also discuss the importance of using technical analysis in conjunction with fundamental analysis to make informed investment decisions.

20:04

📉 Market Trends and Sector Performance

The paragraph discusses the performance of various market sectors, with a focus on those that are showing strong trends and those that are lagging. The conversation includes an analysis of sector-specific ETFs, such as XLE for energy and XLV for healthcare, and their current market conditions. The experts also provide insights into how to interpret technical indicators like the ichimoku cloud and fractals to predict future market movements.

25:06

🚀 Bullish Market Movements and Investment Strategies

This section highlights the bullish movements in the market and provides investment strategies for various stocks and ETFs. The discussion includes specific recommendations for stocks like PayPal and Cisco, along with advice on when to enter or exit positions based on technical indicators. The experts also discuss the importance of managing risk by moving stop losses as the market moves and waiting for optimal entry points.

30:10

🌐 Global Economic Engines and Market Influence

The paragraph discusses the role of China as a significant economic engine and its influence on global markets. The conversation includes insights into how China's policies and economic performance can impact investment strategies and market trends. The experts also touch on the potential for a 'China comeback' and its effect on commodity and cyclical stocks.

35:11

📉 Declining Market Sectors and Cautionary Tales

This section focuses on market sectors that are experiencing declines, such as energy and utilities, and provides cautionary advice for investors. The discussion includes an analysis of technical indicators that suggest a downtrend and the importance of avoiding investments in declining markets. The experts also discuss the potential risks of trying to 'buy the dip' and the importance of waiting for market confirmation before entering positions.

40:11

📱 Technology Stocks and Market Resistance

The paragraph discusses the performance of technology stocks, such as Google and Apple, and their current market resistance levels. The conversation includes an analysis of these stocks' technical indicators and the potential for future growth or decline. The experts also provide insights into how to interpret market signals and make informed investment decisions based on both technical and fundamental analysis.

45:27

🌐 Global Economic Outlook and Investment Opportunities

This section provides an overview of the global economic outlook and highlights potential investment opportunities in various sectors. The discussion includes insights into how economic policies and market trends can influence investment decisions and the importance of diversifying portfolios to manage risk. The experts also discuss the potential for increased market volatility and the need for investors to stay informed and adaptable.

Keywords

💡Bull Market

A bull market is a financial market condition where securities prices are rising or are expected to rise. In the video, the bull market is highlighted by the record run for stocks and major inflows, indicating a time of optimism and buying activity. The mention of 'Dow Jones Industrial Average' and 'S&P' reaching new heights exemplifies the bull market scenario being discussed.

💡Equity Inflows

Equity inflows refer to the amount of new capital entering the stock market. The script mentions 'the third largest equity inflows in the history of their data,' suggesting a significant influx of money into equities, which is a bullish sign and indicates confidence in the market's upward trajectory.

💡FED

The Federal Reserve, or the FED, is the central banking system in the United States. In the context of the video, the FED's actions, such as cutting rates, are central to discussions about market trends. The phrase 'don't fight the FED' alludes to the idea that it's wise to align investment strategies with the FED's monetary policy, which currently favors a looser monetary policy to stimulate the economy.

💡Money Market Funds

Money market funds are a type of investment vehicle that is considered low risk and provides easy liquidity. The script alludes to these funds when discussing where investors have been keeping their money, with '6.3 trillion dollars' in money market funds mentioned as a significant amount that could potentially move into riskier assets like stocks.

💡Volatility

Volatility refers to the rate and extent at which the price of a security can change. The term is used in the script to describe concerns about the stability of investments. For instance, the discussion about investors preferring '5% risk-free' returns over volatile equities highlights the aversion to volatility in certain market conditions.

💡Reallocation

Reallocation in the financial context refers to the process of readjusting a portfolio's asset allocation. The video discusses the potential for 'reallocation' out of cash and fixed income into equities, indicating a strategic shift in investment positioning due to changing market conditions and expectations of higher returns from stocks.

💡Yield

Yield in investing refers to the income generated from an investment. The script mentions yields in the context of the returns investors can expect from different financial instruments. For example, the shift from '5% risk-free' to potentially lower but still attractive yields like '4%' or '3.5%' is discussed as a factor influencing investment decisions.

💡Recession

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity lasting longer than a few months. The script mentions the absence of a recession as a positive factor for the market, as it counters earlier predictions of economic downturn, thereby supporting the ongoing bull market.

💡Earnings

Earnings in a financial context refer to the profit a company makes. The video discusses expectations for future earnings growth as a factor that could support the market's upward movement. It contrasts this with high valuations, suggesting that if earnings do not meet high expectations, it might affect stock prices.

💡Multiple

In finance, a multiple is a ratio of a company's value to its earnings, sales, or other metrics. The script refers to the stock market's multiple in the context of valuation, questioning whether a '22 times next year's earnings' multiple is justified, indicating a concern about whether current stock prices are overvalued.

💡Geopolitical Risk

Geopolitical risk is the risk of loss due to events that have a political or governmental origin. The video mentions geopolitical risk in the context of investment decisions, suggesting that upcoming elections and other geopolitical events might influence where investors choose to allocate their funds, potentially affecting market movements.

Highlights

Stocks are experiencing a record run with the bull market seeing major inflows.

Equity client flows from Bank of America reported the third largest equity inflows in history last week.

Discussion on whether investors should be buying into the bull market despite recent market dips.

Fed's loosening cycle and lack of market disruptions are reasons for increased buying.

Money market funds hold a large amount of capital, potentially indicating future investment movements.

Reallocation from cash and fixed income to equities is anticipated as part of an investment shift.

Experts predict a significant reallocation out of cash into equities, driving the market.

Rick Rieder from Black Rock suggests that with the Fed's rate cut, both equities and debt could perform well.

Geopolitical risks and upcoming elections might influence investment strategies.

The potential for a broader move to equities outside of current concentrated areas is discussed.

Valuations and earnings expectations are considered in the context of market performance.

The impact of China's central bank stimulating the economy on global markets is highlighted.

China's policy bazooka has been unleashed, indicating significant economic movement.

The importance of China's economic policies for global investors is emphasized.

Final stock picks by the panel include PayPal, Cisco Systems, and Citizens Financial.

Technical analysis using the Ichimoku indicator on various stocks and ETFs is provided.

Transcripts

all right thanks so much welcome to the

halftime report I'm Scott wner front and

center this hour the record run for

stocks as the bull market sees major

inflows we will break down these new

numbers and debate what it means for the

rally joining me for the hour Josh Brown

Shannon Sosha Jim lenthal Brian bsky

we'll check the markets we are in the

green across the board extending those

record highs for the Dow Jones

Industrial Average S&P

5729 we're watching that here good for

about a quarter of a percent nasdaq's

good for about a half so Josh confidence

was a Miss biggest decline since August

of 21 markets Shrugged that off a bit

and as I said it feels like investors

are buying into this don't fight the FED

notion because as I mentioned here

Equity client flows from Bank of America

the third largest equity inflows in the

history of their data last week net

buyers of us equities almost billion

that's the biggest since October of

2022 is that what we should be doing

buying into this bull market

here look I think I think the reasons

for the buying are fairly obvious we are

now uh into the FED loosening cycle and

the tightening cycle hasn't caused

anything to blow up and this was one of

the if when you talk to people that were

sitting in Money Market funds and by the

way money market funds uh had a total of

6.3 trillion doar which is a huge amount

of money both in absolute terms and

relative uh to the overall investment

markets when you talk to people who were

sitting with 30 40 50% of their assets

getting 5% risk-free 5 and a half% you

know close to 5 and a half% one of the

number one things they said was I'm

happy with my 5% like uh I'm not taking

any risk I don't have to worry about

volatility I don't have to worry about

the fed and blah blah blah now the FED

is cutting we haven't had the recession

that was prophecied um and and we

haven't had any sort of like major event

exogenous event that has come to blow up

the market so now what happens you're up

19% year-to date on the S&P we don't

have one of those massive issues at

least not at the the current moment and

now that overnight weight is coming down

look how fast the two-year moved so now

people are saying well wait a minute 5%

was awesome 4 and a half% % is pretty

good 4% is not going to feel great and

3.5% which is where the the betting

markets are is going to feel terrible

especially if the markets remain healthy

and earnings are going to grow so I do

think there's going to be a lot of

reallocation and I think the flows that

you saw this week Scott are directly

attributed to this idea of people

positioning ahead of that are they

directly attributed Brian for one of the

reasons why you raise your S&P Target to

60 100 last week the highest on Wall

Street assuming that fed's cutting

money's going to come out of cash

equivalent money markets and whatever

else and go into equities and help for

that push yeah thanks for having by the

way I think the big thing is we're

really looking at a major reallocation

out of cash and fixed income by the way

into equities a lot of people as Josh

said have missed this especially a lot

of Institutions but a lot of our private

wealth clients have been participating

into this we wrote the note before the

FED cut and then we wanted to see what

the Fed was talking about after it cut

it was a mood point for us whether or

not it was going to be 25 or 50 but at

the end of the day Josh is right the

trend is your friend in terms of the

direction of the fed this is a Tailwind

for stocks and we still think there's a

lot of participation beginning to expand

which is a very very strong notion for a

bull market I mean you're you're

assuming I think you know many are that

this mountain of cash that's been

sitting over there is going to come into

equities Rick reer Black Rock yesterday

closing

um listen to what he told me about all

this money on the sideline and he likes

stocks he said as much multiple

times but he might like something a

little better listen boy there's a lot

of cash and with the FED fo putting foam

on the runway with the FED bringing the

rate down could they could both equities

and debt do well I think so my only

point is would you move the needle going

into an election geopolitical risk would

you move the needle a little bit

downshift the risk takes some yield that

that's the direction travel

in now sh there are those who might say

well of course he's going to say that

he's the CIO of fixed income at the

world's largest asset manager but Rick's

not like that he's nuanced I mean he

knows he says when he likes stocks a lot

stocks are going to go up he'll tell you

straight out but given the risks that he

cites geopolitical you got an election

coming up do you actually get a better

bang for your buck is it better for risk

to actually go into credit here with the

cash that Brian talks about Josh talks

about and so many other sites well I

think there's a misperception that all

of the cash came out of equities in the

first place and so now when you're

thinking about what the potential is

you're looking at two factors number one

um where do you think you're going to

want to have your money at the beginning

of 2025 and so that's your eventual goal

as you look to position for next year in

an environment where the economy maybe

is not slowing quite as fast as some had

feared but more importantly there's

accommodative fed back back stop at this

point second if you were in cash that

came from fixed income I agree with you

Scott I think that there is some desire

to potentially add some credit exposure

and it's not necessary to go out too far

on the curve if you just think about

sort of the inter short to intermediate

part of the curve out of cash moving up

along the curve you could hang out there

for a little while as you wait to see

what happens with the election but I do

think that there was enough of this cash

and we talked about this for a long time

that could potentially fuel not only

only just a broader move to equities but

also a move to equities that are outside

of the areas where people have been

concentrated so there's this dual

concentration this barbel of cash and

mega cap Tech and there's a lot of

opportunities to either take more credit

risk more duration risk or Equity risk

outside of those areas where you had

this barbell Jimmy I mean his point

reader point is yeah I like stocks a lot

but A lot's already priced in valuations

are rich because stocks have run a lot

expect ations for earnings are pretty

high going forward maybe too high and

therefore it doesn't justify the

multiple to where stocks have run we

already know the cuts are are in the

Market at this point yeah I I mean look

his analysis is spoton however I believe

Scott that the market is going to go

higher I think Brian's actually right on

6100 now the an the analysis is going to

say well wait a second that's 22 times

next year's earnings that's too much how

could that possibly be you're perfectly

legitimate to have that opinion but

here's what's going to happen because it

happens every time when you have a year

like the one that we're in where you're

up big going into the fourth quarter you

know what happens professional money

managers some of whom have sat on the

sidelines to a certain degree they

didn't believe it let's face it there

were plenty of times this year that

people thought a recession was imminent

and some people reflected that in their

portfolios they will be forced it

happens every time you have a year like

this they will be forced to chase the

rally it will happen and we can discuss

whether Brian's right or wrong and

whether 22 times next year's earnings is

right or wrong but what I just described

is highly likely to happen maybe

volatility that some expect to happen

between now and the end of the year

chases some people away from actually

chasing the rally and by the way in a uh

email back and forth this morning Rick

reer says the following I think real

rates are super attractive especially

relative to where beta is priced I think

equities will do okay given the cash out

there the broader Point that's been made

here I just think they're far from

cheaper valuation supported at these

levels and I think to the so to the

extent first off he's right real rates

are attractive in terms of where they've

been for the last 20 15 years on bonds

they are however if you're concerned

that maybe 22 times next year's earnings

is a little lofty look at other areas of

the markets now this is a discussion

that we've been having for quite some

time I will be the first to admit a lot

of fits and starts in terms of our small

caps for real is the equal weight S&P

500 where you should be what about

cyclicals and the answer to the question

is if you're scared off it's legitimate

about 22 times next year's earnings look

at sectors like financials Industrials

energy materials which not only have

attractive multiples they have good

yields and just maybe and I'm not going

to put a lot in this but maybe the China

news go finish maybe the China news

China news is for real I like where

you're going with that because a lot of

those areas of the market are moving

higher today on the news out of China

that you know the central bank's going

to stimulate the economy there as much

as they have to as if anybody ever

doubted that but nonetheless it's the

Industrials materials those stocks are

hitting record intraday highs today yeah

and look what they're not doing which

they need to do and I'm not being

provocative here is knocking down all

those empty buildings and rebuilding

them I'm not being provocative that's

what you really need to do if you want

to recover the steel Market the energy

Market the concrete Market all that sort

of thing however they are taking an

important step in that direction we're

seeing it reflected in commodity and

other cyclical stocks today you know is

this a little bit of a sugar rush

perhaps but they're moving in the right

direction that's what the market and the

valuations of those highly cyclical

stocks are demanding they're getting it

it just shows you Josh how starved

people are uh for this China comeback

kweb leaders today by the way you picked

it as your contrarian play this year 10

cents up 15% jd.com is up 10 PDD

Holdings is up 10 Alibaba is a new 52e

high today as well

yeah the hangsang and the Shanghai

composite both gapped up 4% the news hit

uh 9:00 a.m. so both of the major uh

both of the major stock markets uh in in

China gapped higher and the K web is up

like 9% as we speak I want to I want to

double click on what you just said

because I think it's the most important

part of the news it's not just China's

Central Bank this is in conjunction with

the state Administration for financial

regulation so this is the the equivalent

to what happened during covid when the

treasury and the FED got together and

jointly announced how we were going to

deal with this holistically across the

whole economy and and the markets um my

friend uh Brendan Hearn at crane shares

who watches this space closer than

anyone said the policy bazooka has been

Unleashed you guys should probably book

him for closing bell today here's the

bottom line This is not just lower

interest rates they are directing

mortgage rates lower to where they want

them they are deliberately talking about

supporting private Equity they want to

bring about mergers and Acquisitions

this is Chinese Regulators saying more

mergers and Acquisitions you know what

they looked at they looked at the

success of Japan the Japanese stock

market had directed all of the listed

companies on the Nik to come up with a

plan within one year of how they're

going to increase shareholder value if

your stock is selling below Book value

tell us in print what you're going to do

about it and we're going to put it on

our website and there was a study that

looked at what happened to the Japanese

companies that were the soonest to

Market with their plan to increase the

valuation of their own stock th those

stocks absolutely went berserk to the

upside the Chinese are not immune to

that Zeitgeist they see it happening in

in Japan and they say well why is our

stock market the worst large stock

market in the world the reason this is

important for us investors is because

regardless of the political reality

China is still the most important

economic engine in the world more

important to Europe than to us fine but

this stuff matters it matters to our

cyclical companies it matters to our

entertainment companies it matters for

Consumer Staples companies so I

genuinely think that we should be

emphasizing the fact that China wants to

get serious about promoting Capital

markets and I don't think it should just

get lost in the shuffle it's a very big

deal Josh what's your

final uh PayPal continues to make new

highs I am rolling up my stop loss but

staying with the

trade thank you very much Brian bsky

citizens Financial 4% dividend yields a

dividend grower 18% free cash flow yield

all right good having you back with us

here on the desk farmer Jim Cisco

Systems I continue to believe this uh

quietly softly is going to set a new

high for the year thank to why are you

laughing expecting like was it code for

something else you thought maybe for

having us it's our pleasure dude if you

have more than 30 years experience

you're welcome anytime on this program

okay Shan what's your final re uh it's

not just declining inflation and lower

rates it's also that they're in good

shape they have turned out their debt um

during the low rate period all right

good stuff I'll see you on closing bell

hello everybody Welcome to blue cloud

trading it is Tuesday September 24th we

just saw Josh Brown and a few other

guests on the halftime report they

shared their final picks those four

stocks that you see right there on the

left we're going to analyze each and

every one of those we're going to use

the ichimoku indicator and I'll let you

know what I think based on the

technicals uh we're also going to cover

the indices including a lot of ETFs

Within These indices like the small cap

and large cap midcap we'll also look at

a lot of the sectors including gold

Bitcoin real estate all that stuff okay

uh and we'll also cover two two of the

Fab 7 stocks Google and apple why not

the rest well I happen to be holding

positions in the other stocks and I Do

cover them I cover them for members if

you are a member you can access those

you can become a member by joining come

to the website here blue cloud trading

click on the join button select blue

cloud Trader okay minimum you'd have to

either become a blue cloud Trader or

blue cloud Legend I covered the uh

stocks on weekends for blue cloud

Traders and I cover the uh my daily

trades for blue cloud Legend level

members that's $49.99 for blue cloud

legend $24.99 for blue cloud Trader you

can also upgrade by clicking the join

button if you happen to be you know a

lower tier like blue cloud supporter you

can upgrade to blue cloud Trader by just

going back to this page here clicking

the join button and you can uh select

that uh and then you'll find the member

only videos down here in the second row

under the playlists okay

and I basically post all of the trades

that I do for blue cloud Legend level

members in the community tab here all

right and uh on the weekends I also um

post for blue cloud Traders so anyway

let's get back into now that we got all

that out of the way let's take a look

and see how the markets are doing today

they did well they did okay you know

they were all up uh you can see that the

Dow was up

.16 you know not that much really for

the Dow NASDAQ was up the most 47% and

it looked a little bit scary actually in

the beginning part of the day because uh

as you can see here we had that big drop

right in the early morning and so that

was a little bit concerning but then it

created like almost like a v-neck type

you know recovery here and once we got

above that prior uh see that from 9:00

there 9:30 a.m. sorry the high of 9:30

a.m. we basically stayed above that area

for the most part so that is a positive

thing and then same thing happened with

the S&P 500 right and the Russell 2000

uh so the S&P 500 was up

0.20% and the Russell 2000 up

0.25 um we've got 88.9% here of the

stocks experiencing new highs that's

huge um in the S&P 500 and then about

70% are above the 50-day moving average

68% above the 200 day moving average all

right so that's very good now the market

hasn't closed yet if you notice right

here it's 3:57 p.m. all right so just a

few more minutes left so it's pretty

we're pretty close um let's look at the

map here you may see some of these

numbers changing a little bit in the

next few minutes but it should close

around the same area uh let's see so

we've got Nvidia up making a nice little

jump

3.81% and most of the um semiconductors

as you can see here we're all in the

green that's good financials like Visa

Mastercard and you know Bank of America

um where's Bank of America I'm not

seeing it in here but basically yeah you

know were're most of these were pretty

negative except for PayPal which was up

081 that was Josh's pick we're going to

look at that one in a few moments basic

materials did really well today Tesla

was up Home Depot Google Apple meta was

down a little bit Microsoft was down 1%

Costco was down

1.7 all right now let's take a look at

the group screener this shows us

the sectors that were strongest today

and you'll see basic materials and

consumer cyclical were the strongest

technology was next then communication

Services financials and utilities didn't

do that great but they didn't really

drop that much either you know

financials were down 0.59 and then

utilities were down just a quarter of a

percent all right nothing major there

here's the uh onewe performance if you

want to check that

out all right let's get into the stocks

that they recommended at the end these

were the final trades PayPal was Josh

Brown's pick let's look at this

closer okay we've got the ichimoku

indicator let me get rid of those lines

for a moment so just briefly um let me

just tell you some of the rules of this

indicator we want price to be above the

tankinson the green line above the red

line keinen we want it to be above the

cloud the ichimoku cloud one of the

unique features about this IND about

this indicator is the is the cloud

itself which is based on mathematical

equations and I can specify those I mean

basically the synp a the top of the

cloud IT projects by the way 26 periods

into the future okay that's the midpoint

of the two moving averages right there

and IT projects 26 per into the future

the purple line is the midpoint of each

and every one of these last 52 periods

here or 52 days in this case and IT

projects right there 26 per into the

future very unique um you won't find

that in any other indicator and then the

PayPal I'm sorry the uh Chu span here

the white line that you see hovering in

the background why is this in the back

here why is it in the past well uh the

creator of the indicator decided he

wanted to be able to look at the closing

prices which is that's the closing

prices for today so if you go back and

you project the 26 periods there it is

that's the closing price price today um

you know down here for example the

closing prices it led to that level

right there anyway it projects 26 perod

in the past and what the idea is to look

to see where that is in relation to 26

periods ago to the candle below it

sometimes it will be above the

candle as it is in this case here

sometimes it will be under like it was

over here when it's above the price

that's very bullish when it's under it's

bearish it means that that you're in a

downtrend and by the way when price is

itself is inside the cloud or under the

cloud the one of the rules of ichimoku

is you do not enter a long position you

also want to basically stay out of

stocks that are under these moving

average um if if the price happens to be

under you want to wait for it to break

out above the moving averages before an

entry anyway okay so PayPal how's it

doing right now it's doing good if you

look at the weekly

chart you know we recently broke above

the cloud this is a good sign this means

that that we are in the early stages of

a potential nice move up for PayPal

because it has had in fact a very huge

decline right if you go back here to the

Past in 2021 and um you know February

19th of 2021 you know it dropped

approximately 82.8 4% all right in

approximate and and it lasted a a good

basically 2.7 years now what's happened

recently is

there's a lot of buyers starting to step

back into this stock and that's a good

thing so it's breaking through prior

highs for example if you look at these

levels here see that prior High broke

through that here and that's a weekly

chart by the way so that was on Friday

what was that date Friday September 20th

we have that we got above the cloud on

this candle that happened on August

16th and since that happened if you look

down below you'll notice that the adx

here that's the momentum indicator is

moving up so that is positive momentum

we've got the green line above the red

line that's the positive di9 above the

negative D9 and everything is looking

pretty good overall for PayPal on the

weekly and it does look good on the

daily as well so I agree on this one it

has gotten a little bit far away from

the moving averages though right there

that's an equilibrium level so when

price gets far away from those levels

many times it will start to gravitate

back to it

all right it's like a magnet so you know

you have to watch it very closely at

this point I don't know if this is an

optimal entry point okay an optimal

entry point would have been right there

when it first broke above the green line

and you can see that nice little move

since that point for example it's moved

up

99.9% so I would hold off on PayPal

actually at this particular moment

because it's a little bit overextended

it could of course continue its move up

but I think we may get another

opportunity in the near future where

price comes back down to equili ium

levels and then it makes more sense to

enter all right how about Cisco same

situation here right this one looks good

in the daily time frame you can see that

the entry point made more sense back

here it's moved up quite a bit since

that point it's moved up about 6% for

Cisco here's the weekly chart we just

got above it this week the cloud that's

very that's very bullish for Cisco by

the way Cisco is uh who's um whose pick

was

that I forget

um I think I had it written no yeah that

was uh Jim lethals okay so Jimmy boy

farmer Jim he likes Cisco I like it

right now too it looks pretty good but

you know again you have to watch it very

closely maybe if you're holding on to

this start moving your stop up that's

what you know you may have heard Josh

talking about that moving your stop up

basically as price starts to move up you

want to also move your stops okay so

that if it gets triggered and drops

unexpectedly at least you walk away with

some profits very

important all

right so here's Cisco I like it

iyr this is the real estate ETF has been

doing great here's the weekly chart very

strong uptrend adx look at it moving up

still very strongly right and then on

the daily time frame I like what I'm

seeing overall it was just a

0.3% CFG is the citizens Financial by

the way that was Shannon's pick okay um

and I I think yeah actually did write

that down Channon pick right there she

actually talked about this back on

September 17th as well she recommended

it um all right CFG citizens Financial

that was Bryant's pick all right so this

particular stock now it is it does

happen to be above the cloud and that's

good however in the daily chart you'll

notice that the price has today got

under tankenson and keinon so you want

to hold off on this one we may get a

little bounce soon though so watch it

um how about the weekly

chart creating a symmetrical triangle

all right so ideally you want to wait to

get above this trend line as well

because right now what you're

experiencing here is a lower high here

than this prior High okay and now we've

got a third lower high here so it's kind

of stair stepping down a little bit um

we do have a higher low here than this

one though so that is good so that's why

that's what creates a symmetrical

triangle and what that means is it's

getting s squeezed Tighter and Tighter

right it may come back down here may

come back you know what I mean and then

finally when it finally bursts whether

it's to the upside or to the downside

it's going to be a very more than likely

explosive break and so you want to watch

out for

that all right let's take a look at the

indices

now the Spy S&P 500 here's a week well

I'm not going to do the weeklys on these

because I do those in the weekends and

because if you're looking look at a

weekly candle recognize during the week

right Monday through Thursday and okay

recognize that it's in the in the

process of being formed so this candle

here has not basically formed to its

full fruition it's kind of like in the

process it's a dynamic candle so you got

to wait it out a little bit until Friday

to know where we are for sure but so far

it looks pretty good the um S&P 500 is

very strong it's broken through this

level 6 516 like I said before I

expected it to bounce if it got down

here it did 3 days now we're up we're at

29% should continue moving up in my

opinion Q's look pretty good but they're

stalling at this resistance level still

which is a little bit concerning here

actually let me make sure that's true

48454 yeah that's the level right there

that it has to get through so we're at

48537 based on that prior High I'd hold

off on the q's actually all right if you

happen to be holding it this is a good

place to take some profits all right

wait for a close one more day to break

above and close Above This level you

want a body above there not just a

little piercing like this and then then

you can like hold it into the next level

of 503 52 which is the next level of

resistance and take some more profits up

here all right Dia is the Dow Jones

Industrial ETF this is still moving

beautifully right we got our little

bounce here at

4619 and it's continuing its move up 0

24% Russell 2000 you know it's just been

declining for 4 days but it's also above

the cloud it's above the moving averages

um I it did break and created a new

higher high here we have a higher low

there so it is stair stepping up but for

whatever reason it's just stalling here

it's more than likely to pop I think

tomorrow all right but who knows nobody

can predict the market but it does look

like it's stalling here volume is

declining as price is declining so

that's good we want to see volume

stalling as price declines that means

that the buyers might start to come back

in all right

RSP is uh bouncing again off of this

little green candle I mentioned that

yesterday new highs uh we had those back

here on September 19th or September 16th

well now it's you know we had it on

September 19th I I should just get rid

of that little thing but basically we're

experiencing new highs in the equal

weight ETF so that's good igr is moving

up still that's a small cap 600 similar

to the Russell 2000 okay the small caps

are kind of just stalling here but I

think we we should get a little bounce

up soon SPD High dividend portfolio ETF

is looking really good bouncing off that

49.97 no reason to be alarmed here of

anything negative happening quite yet it

hasn't happened if it hasn't happened

you hold on hold your horses right and

then wait for that breakdown instead of

uh jumping the gun uh iwr midcap

index all right bounced off the 8691 is

continuing to move up up

0.17% you can see here that the adx is

still moving up that's what we want to

see volume declined a little bit but you

know it's just not a lot of movement

that's all the large caps are doing

really well all right they're also

bouncing off this

6647 it's a broad um group of different

types of stocks from small cap to midcap

to large cap this is a really good

bullish Run Okay overall okay it's just

everything seems to be moving

beautifully because all of these ETFs

are now flagged and they're not always

flagged as you guys know so as and when

they are flagged that means that I'm

okay with holding positions in any of

these really okay like I I'm bullish on

all of them basically spq is the high

quality portfolio for the S&P 500 that

dropped a little bit just 0.13% but it's

holding up above support so that's fine

the vix dropped a little bit more down

2.52 so remember I mentioned how we want

that to be continue to drop that's the

volatility in the market so we want to

see that continue to drop and it is all

right now we're going to look at the

sectors okay

okay well you can see already that a lot

of these are flagged right so which ones

are not flagged TLT XLE XLV and uup

everything else is looking pretty good

we've got some new entrance into the

group here which one copx look at this

guys finally you know we've been I've

been you know waiting for this breakout

above

4464 and 4334 started first with a

breakout of 4

4334 okay got above that level and then

today a huge gap up

7.12% for copper minor ETF you can see

that the positive di is above the

negative di adx is moving up we got a

nice big high volume bar I expect this

to continue moving up I am concerned

that we're this far away from

equilibrium though so you have to be

very careful and move your stops up

folks if you're if you happen to got in

there but at any point you want to start

moving your stops up as if it continues

moving up make sure to protect

yourselves silver also broke up today

did a really nice jump as you can see

right there look at the percentages here

up 5% for silver but stalled at this

2956 level based on these prior highs so

you know you may want to take some

profits here that's my recommendation

with silver uh and wait for it to break

through that before for considering a

new long position SMH semiconductors

finally broke above the cloud back on

September 16th Anastasia one of the

other people on CNBC recommended SMH

good call for

Anastasia uh it's now broken above the

cloud we now have more confirmation that

we can it's okay to start thinking about

you know adding this ETF to your

portfolio you can see this is also

looking pretty positive down below the

only thing that's not positive quite yet

with this is there's a few things okay

let me just say that we don't have all

of the ichimoku elements giving us

confirmation on SMH yet so that's

exactly why I would if you're going you

know in my opinion if I was going to be

entering a position in SMH I wouldn't go

in with my full position let's assume

that I typically um buy 2% of any ETF or

stock in my portfolio and I only put 2%

of my portfolio in one ETF okay one

specific ETF hypothetically in this case

I would only put 1% 50% of that amount

because here's why we got a a cloud here

that's bearish and we have Chu span the

white line is still under priced you see

that right there if I zoom in you can

see a little more so it's still under so

we don't have 100% confirmation but

we're in the beginning stages here folks

I like it here's the weekly chart it

also got above keinen today but again

remember this is dynamic we'll know on

Friday for sure on this one

xlb today popped above this what was

this this was a bearish fractal I call

it a bearish fractal has the highest

high in the middle with two bars on

either side showing lower

highs that high was lower than that high

that high right there was lower than

that high now it did not lead to a

decline which is great in fact the very

next day here we had a bullish candle we

had so that almost created like a

bullish harami type situation uh if

you're unfamiliar with bullish harami

let me show you that real

quick let me zoom

in

okay let's go over here under double

candle

patterns this is a bullish harami a

negative candle with a small bullish

candle that follows

it that's what we have right there and

then it led to this nice little Gap up

it got above the high here remember I

had drawn that line yesterday I said we

need to get above that line for

confirmation that this thing is over

it's now cancelled this is no longer in

effect okay so I wouldn't be too

concerned about it at this point but I

did want to educate you guys about

fractals because that's an important

thing you can see another fractal here

that was negative here's a high here on

this candle and this C this High's uh

candle is lower than that one and the

the subsequent candle was also lower

than that high that created okay that

created a fract a bearish

fractal and that led to the drop it

doesn't always materialize but it

sometimes it does all right here's

another one right here okay let me just

draw that one too here's the low here's

the okay boom dropped some more

here's another

one it always kind of starts off that

way and then a bullish one all right

would be something like this the low

this low here in the middle is the

lowest and you got that sort of thing

situation going on like a V type

scenario here's another

one okay making sense guys here's

another

one and another one I mean they just

that's how it all has to start it has to

start somewhere and usually it's with

these either bearish fractals or bullish

ones on the bottom of a move after a

move down when you see it happening on

the lows that can lead to a nice move

up all right let's continue gold look at

gold wow I love it up 1.39% moving up

adx is stol moving up looks great ibit

Bitcoin this is what I was talking about

everything seems to be moving you know

after the FED came out last week and and

uh drop that percentage down by half a

percent

right I mean look at this um Bitcoin is

also doing good it broke through the

3644 level to

3664 so it's looking bullish as well

that's the daily and here's the

weekly here's Industrials in the weekly

and here it is in the daily looking good

we had a bearish fractal right there

that was canceled today okay do you see

that those three candles right there so

that and it created this bullish fractal

and then that L to the nice move up all

right xlk looking good may find some

resistance here at

[Music]

22737 guys it's really important to that

you get that you guys you know if you're

trading stocks that you also incorporate

technicals with the

fundamentals and fundamentals of course

are when you're looking at I'll just

give you a quick um we'll come back to

technology here in a second but here's

Google the fundamentals are the profit

margins you know the operating cash

flows you know you look at the the beta

the price of sales price earnings growth

sales growth all these things and and so

what you want is a um a full picture of

both the fundamentals telling you the

story that this is a good stock to own

but also the technicals and if you don't

have one of the two confirming okay then

you just stay out of it and just invest

in the the ones that are strongest it

just makes sense

all right technology looking good up 68%

today on The Daily this is the

weekly and consum discretionary looking

great up

89% very bullish adx is still moving up

getting a little far away though from

equilibrium xlc I get I get nervous when

I see it moving that far away I know

that it's going to eventually come back

so you want to move your stops up okay

xlc is kind of stalling here a little

bit but we got a bull candle I think

it's going to continue that's

communication Services tip looking great

right here right treasury inflation

protection staying above that tenens in

this whole time here up 0

24% real estate it's under the tenens

in very flat this xlre ETF so you just

wait a little longer until we get some

confirmations to get in B same situation

it was only up 05 Consumer Staples was

is inside equilibrium you hold off on

that one xhb home builders looks okay I

mean it was down 0.12 but it's holding

up above support utilities uh creating a

a shooting star candle it's a negative

candle all right so that one looks like

this right here this long Wick and small

body so that's a negative bearish single

candle pattern you you you don't want to

be entering a long position when you see

something like this all right if if you

guys um like the uh that little spread

thing this this Candlestick cheat sheet

that I use here if you like that you can

get it on my um X and Twitter account

and um let me show you that okay so this

is the xpage Twitter account at

bluecloud Trader when you once you're

there you want to scroll down scroll

down you'll find it right here Pinn to

the very top you can download it and if

you don't mind just following me that's

all I ask in return I do Post other

things in here including videos but also

charts uh occasionally so you may want

to check that out all right anyway let's

get back to the charts and we were

looking at xlu and that's the that

shooting star type it almost looks like

a gravestone that's also a negative

candle right there a gravestone pattern

looks something

like this you see that right there so

similar to the shooting shooting star or

um but also has a long Wick and a flat

body and it's kind of flat I would say

for the most part

utilities overall though look at this

nice run it's still moving up it was

down 71% today here's the weekly chart

all right not a big change when you look

at the overall picture here um let's

continue with financials XLF now on the

daily chart this one dropped

88% but found support it found support

right on the ten kinson the midpoint of

the last nine periods the red line is

the midpoint of the last 26 periods okay

so it's a little slower we always also

want to see the green line above the red

generally speaking you want

that uh

TLT 20-year Treasury under the tenson

and keinon here for about 3 days now but

we have a bullish candle so there's a

good chance that we may get a bounce

here we are still above the prior low

and that's important right there you see

that low right there so I'm not too

concerned about that but um just let

just letting you guys know that this is

not a proper entry place for it energy

what did I say about this one you know

it's been weak and it still is weak

keeps finding that resistance of the

cloud top of the cloud there you could

see it multiple times here and here and

over here and finally right here today

on Tuesday September 24th it came to it

it opened right there at the at the very

top of the cloud and dropped back under

on higher volume not good so this is the

lagard I'd stay out of En energy for the

time being it will have its day in the

future but right now it's experiencing

lower highs and lower lows as you can

see here this low is lower than the

prior one all right this high is lower

than the prior high so it's declining

folks that's what they call a downtrend

and so you essentially don't want to be

involved in that because you don't know

when it's going to stop really and when

people tell you oh I want to buy it

cheaper okay but how do you know what

when that point is you know is going to

stop and it's not going to continue

declining the stock can drop for longer

than you can expect it can also move up

for longer than you can expect as the

markets are right now which side do you

want to be on you

know Healthcare XLV down 0.20% it's

under the moving averages we also have a

negative crossover here for Healthcare

on The Daily that's a little concerning

but we are holding up above this support

level that's what we need to hold up

above if we break under that level okay

that's that's going to be extremely

concerning I'll be watching it and I'll

inform you about that US dollar uup is

still declining here's a perfect example

it you know it's gotten cheap came up a

little bit showed a little bit of

strength boom dropped and so now it's

continuing to drop the adx when it's

moving up like this on the directional

movement index adx 9 when it's moving up

and the negative D line is above the

positive

D9 that's very bearish and it's telling

us that stay out look how long the red

Line's been above the green line for the

US Dollar on The Daily and here's the

weekly chart you can see it's under the

cloud there too right so stay out of the

you know the US dollar for now it's not

a strong place to be basically people

are pushing their money they're putting

the money back in the markets okay money

market accounts are going to start to

decline those interest rates when they

start declining people are going to get

itchy for in investing in higher um

areas like areas that can provide them

with a higher income and basically the

stock market is the place probably that

a lot of them are going to put their

money back into um you know what's his

name Tom Lee always talks about how the

trillions of dollars or whatever that

are on the sidelines right just waiting

to come back into this Market it seems

to be happening here there's a cash

inflow obviously that's taking place and

it's going into a lot of different

places is a lot of different sectors and

ETFs as you can see there and stocks now

Google on the uh unfortunately has is in

a decline right now all right it did

break this trend line but as you can

see this prior high was not has not been

taken out we have a lower high here I'm

sorry lower low here than this prior low

so you know and we're under the cloud

there's a lot of resistance above here

so you don't enter basically that's my

My Philosophy that's I trade based on

this indicator it's it it does a good

job at keeping you out of trouble when

price gets under these moving averages

you could have saved yourself this big

decline I mean from that point right

there if we measure it it dropped

approximately 20.67% that's we're

talking about Google one of the

strongest companies out there 20.67% in

two months now you can see that when I

that little box that populates right

here check that out all right right

holding this down drop it down to this

level right there 20.67%

[Music]

which is more important than my opinion

actually apple is um also finding

resistance here that 23261 level see

that prior High looks more bullish

because on the daily chart you can see

it is in fact above the moving averages

in the cloud right but it's stalling

here at these levels we got to break

through it just like we did with um with

copper remember these resistance levels

boom this is what we want to see then I

change my Outlook then I start thinking

more positively about it but until it's

proven we we just wait we sit on our

hands and we just hold off and you know

time flies you know just keeps going by

while um and we start thinking about

investing in other options now by the

way in the members only one thing I

forgot to mention also is in addition to

sharing these videos here uh in the for

blue cloud Legend level

members I also every day Post in the

Community tab here okay um a list of

stocks that pop up in my proprietary

scanner what does that scanner look for

it looks for stocks that are POS that

look have bullish outlooks based on the

ichoku indicator on both the weekly and

daily so if Apple would look good on

both the weekly and daily and in fact I

have some you know specific criteria

that I'm looking for where I'm looking

for price that is pulled back back and

is popping popups okay and that's what

we're looking for and that's what I

share with the members that's why it's

you know you're going to get some great

ideas even if you're not investing

specifically in the stocks uh or you

know following every single stock that I

hold because I do hold a lot of

positions I've got almost you know a

little bit over 30 um positions right

now in my portfolio

but there's new ones coming up every

single day and I share those in with

blue cloud Legend members and I share

them once a week with blue cloud Trader

level members all right guys I'm going

to leave you with that I hope you're all

doing great having a good day in the

markets you are uh succeeding in the

markets and and doing well with trading

and uh I will catch you all in the next

video don't forget to like And subscribe

thanks

[Music]

w