Will the war in Ukraine worsen global food shortages? | Inside Story

Summary

The war in Ukraine has caused a dramatic increase in global food and fuel prices, affecting 1.7 billion people, particularly in developing countries. Russia and Ukraine are key suppliers of wheat, barley, and sunflower oil, and the conflict has disrupted these supplies. The UN warns of a 'perfect storm' of crises, including food, energy, and finance, exacerbating existing challenges from climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. The situation could lead to social unrest and calls for collective global action to address the crisis.

Takeaways

• 🌏 The war in Ukraine is exacerbating global crises, particularly affecting developing countries due to the disruption in food and fuel supplies.
• 📈 Russia and Ukraine are significant suppliers of wheat, barley, maize, and sunflower oil, and the war has driven up prices for these staples to record highs.
• 🚜 Disruptions in fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus, who account for about one-fifth of global exports, have more than doubled their prices.
• 🌾 Eastern Africa, for instance, sources approximately 90% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia, making it vulnerable to price shocks and supply uncertainties.
• 📊 Food prices are up by 34% compared to last year, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, impacting billions of people worldwide.
• 📈 Crude oil prices have risen by 60% compared to last year, further straining economies and increasing costs for developing countries.
• 🌐 The conflict is causing a three-dimensional crisis involving food, energy, and finance, which is hitting vulnerable populations and economies hard.
• 🌿 Climate change is also a significant factor contributing to the food crisis, with droughts and floods affecting food production in many regions.
• 💸 The economic impact of the war is delaying global recovery from the pandemic, with inflationary pressures expected to worsen.
• 🌱 The uncertainty in the global food supply and rising fertilizer prices threaten food production, potentially leading to food shortages and increased hunger.
• 🏦 The crisis could lead to social unrest, as high food prices were a trigger for past conflicts and can force people into negative coping mechanisms.

Q & A

What is being referred to as a 'perfect storm of crises' for developing countries?

The war in Ukraine is creating a 'perfect storm of crises' for developing countries by driving up global food and fuel prices, which could potentially lead to hunger for 1.7 billion people.

Why are Russia and Ukraine significant in the global food supply?

Russia and Ukraine are major food suppliers, producing about 30% of the world's wheat and barley. They also grow significant amounts of maize and sunflower oil that developing nations depend on.

How have food prices been affected since the beginning of the war in Ukraine?

Food prices have reached record highs since the war began in February, with prices for staple items like wheat increasing by 34% compared to the previous year.

What is the impact of the conflict and western sanctions on fertilizer exports?

The conflict and western sanctions have disrupted fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus, causing their prices to more than double.

How does the war in Ukraine affect global oil and gas prices?

Global oil and gas prices have increased due to the war, as countries limit transactions with Russia, leading to a 40% increase in oil prices this year.

What challenges are developing countries already facing that are exacerbated by the war in Ukraine?

Developing countries are already struggling with challenges such as climate change, which has caused droughts and floods in regions like Eastern Africa, leading to a hunger crisis.

What is the potential economic impact of the war in Ukraine on the global economy?

The war could delay the global economic recovery from the pandemic, increase inflationary pressures, and lead to a potential global recession, especially if Russian gas supplies to Europe are disrupted.

How might the war in Ukraine affect investment in emerging markets?

Investors may become more wary of investing in emerging markets due to the increased uncertainty and potential for economic disruption caused by the war.

What is the concern regarding the potential for social unrest due to the current crises?

There is a concern that the rising food prices and economic hardships could lead to social unrest, as has been seen in the past with events like the Arab Spring, which were triggered by food price increases.

What measures are suggested to address the crises caused by the war in Ukraine?

Collective measures by all countries, including Russia, are needed to ensure uninterrupted food supplies to developing countries. Additionally, addressing the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and supporting the Ukrainian people is crucial.

How long might it take for global food supply and prices to return to pre-pandemic levels after the war ends?

It is unlikely that global food supply and prices will return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, as the war has caused long-lasting disruptions to supply routes and trade dynamics.