A world going hungry? How conflict and climate change disrupt global food supply | Business Beyond
Summary
TLDRThe world faces a paradoxical food crisis despite surplus production. Key factors include the Ukraine war disrupting exports, exacerbating hunger in Africa reliant on Ukrainian grain. Climate change impacts agriculture, affecting crop yields and prices. The global food system, dominated by a few corporations, struggles with distribution and affordability. Solutions proposed include precision fermentation, localizing food production, diversifying crops, and wealth redistribution to address rising food insecurity.
Takeaways
- 🌐 The world is facing a paradoxical situation where, despite abundant food production, hunger is on the rise due to complex factors such as war, climate change, and systemic issues.
- 🇪🇺 The war in Ukraine has significantly disrupted global food supplies, with around 20 million tons of agricultural commodities unable to be exported, affecting global food prices and availability.
- 🌾 Approximately a quarter of Ukraine's arable land has become unfarmable due to the conflict, further straining the global food system.
- 🚢 The Russian blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports has trapped millions of tons of wheat and other essential commodities, exacerbating the global food crisis.
- 🌍 Russia and Ukraine together account for a substantial portion of global wheat and sunflower oil exports, highlighting the vulnerability of the concentrated international grain trade.
- 📈 The dependency of developing nations on food imports from a few key exporters poses a significant risk, as disruptions in supply can lead to severe food shortages and饥饿 crises.
- 🌡️ Climate change is adversely affecting agriculture in many parts of the world, particularly in Africa and Asia, leading to reduced crop yields, lower supply, and increased food prices.
- 💡 The global food system is criticized for its focus on production rather than equitable distribution and affordability, with concerns about the control of a few large corporations over food trade.
- 🏭 A handful of companies, known as the ABCD companies, have significant control over global grain trade, which may contribute to food price volatility and accessibility issues.
- 🌱 Potential solutions to the food crisis include investing in new technologies like precision fermentation, localizing food production, diversifying food sources, and implementing progressive taxation to address wealth inequality.
Q & A
What is the current global situation regarding hunger despite abundant food production?
-Despite the world producing enough food to feed 12 billion people, there are still 800 million people experiencing hunger. The issue is not about the quantity of food produced but rather about access to it, highlighting a problem with the global food system.
How has the war in Ukraine impacted global food prices and availability?
-The war in Ukraine has led to a significant rise in food prices, particularly for dairy products, cereals, and vegetable oils. Around 20 million tons of agricultural commodities that should have been exported are now unexported due to the conflict, and a quarter of the land usually used for planting crops has become unfarmable.
What role do Russia and Ukraine play in the global wheat trade?
-Together, Russia and Ukraine supply around 25% of the world's traded wheat. This concentration in the grain trade means that disruptions in these countries can have a significant impact on global food security.
How are developing nations affected by the rising costs of food?
-Developing nations are severely impacted by rising food costs, as they often rely heavily on imports for basic food supplies. For instance, nearly half of African countries import more than a third of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine, making them particularly vulnerable to price shocks.
What are the challenges faced by Ukraine in exporting its agricultural products due to the war?
-Ukraine faces challenges such as unfarmable land due to occupation and military battles, as well as a blockade by Russia on its Black Sea ports, which prevents millions of tonnes of wheat and other products from being exported.
How does climate change contribute to the global food crisis?
-Climate change contributes to the global food crisis by causing unpredictable rainfall patterns, more intense and frequent extreme weather events, and increasing temperatures, all of which negatively affect crop yields and supply, leading to higher prices and food insecurity.
What is the significance of the 'ABCD' companies in the global food system?
-The 'ABCD' companies—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus—significantly influence the global food system by controlling a large portion of the global grain trade and related sectors. Their control raises concerns about potential collusion and the impact on food affordability.
What alternative solutions are proposed to address the global food crisis?
-Suggested solutions include adopting new technologies like precision fermentation, localizing food production to reduce inequality, diversifying agriculture to strengthen national and regional food systems, and implementing progressive taxation measures to address wealth inequality.
How does the current global food system's reliance on a few major exporters pose a risk?
-The reliance on a few major exporters for key commodities like wheat and maize makes the global food system vulnerable to shocks in those regions. This concentration can lead to price volatility and food insecurity when those exporters face disruptions.
What is the potential impact of a global food system collapse as described in the script?
-A collapse of the global food system could lead to a dystopian scenario where only the wealthy can afford food, exacerbating inequality and potentially leading to widespread hunger and suffering among the world's poor.
Outlines
🌏 Global Hunger Crisis Amidst Abundance
The script opens with the paradox of global hunger amidst a world of food surplus. It highlights the dire situation in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, where one person dies from hunger every minute, and West Africa faces its worst hunger crisis in a decade. Despite the production of enough calories to support twice the human population, hunger is on the rise. The script suggests that factors like the war in Ukraine, environmental destruction, and a broken food system are contributing to this crisis. The war in Ukraine has disrupted agricultural exports, with 20 million tons of commodities unexported, and a quarter of Ukraine's farmable land rendered unfarmable due to the conflict. The Russian blockade of the Black Sea ports has trapped millions of tons of wheat, leading the EU to accuse Russia of weaponizing the food supply and exacerbating global hunger.
🚞 Challenges in Replacing Black Sea Exports
Paragraph 2 discusses the difficulties of replacing the sea routes for Ukrainian exports, which have been blocked by the war. It mentions the challenges of using land routes such as trains, trucks, or barges, including infrastructure limitations and bureaucratic hurdles. The script also points out that the global food system was already in a precarious state before the Ukraine crisis, with less wealthy nations struggling due to climate change impacts on agriculture. These impacts include increased temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and more frequent extreme weather events, all of which affect crop yields and contribute to food insecurity. The script emphasizes that the countries most affected by climate change are often not the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, highlighting the injustice of the situation.
🔍 The Broken Global Food System
Paragraph 3 delves into the systemic issues within the global food system, suggesting that it is on the brink of failure. Despite enough food being produced to feed 12 billion people, 800 million still go hungry, indicating a problem of access rather than production. The script discusses the concentration of power in the hands of a few large corporations, known as the ABCD companies (Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus), which control a significant portion of the global grain trade. Critics argue that these corporations are exploiting the situation to inflate prices and increase their profits, while representatives of the agricultural trade body Coceral argue that there is room for companies of all sizes in the market. The script raises concerns about the potential for collusion and the lack of diversity in the global food trade, which could lead to a collapse of the food system.
🌱 Potential Solutions to the Global Food Crisis
The final paragraph outlines potential solutions to the looming global food crisis. It suggests that new technologies, such as precision fermentation, could help produce protein and fat more sustainably. Localizing food production is presented as a way to reduce inequality in access to food between wealthy and less wealthy nations. The script also emphasizes the need for stronger national and regional food systems, diversification of crops, and innovation to create products from locally available commodities. Additionally, it discusses the importance of ensuring that citizens can afford food through welfare programs and progressive taxation measures. The paragraph concludes by urging governments to take action to prevent a catastrophe, highlighting the high stakes and the availability of tools to address the crisis.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Hunger crisis
💡Food surplus
💡Climate change
💡Conflict
💡Food system
💡Food security
💡Global grain trade
💡Food inflation
💡Precision fermentation
💡Localizing production
💡Wealth redistribution
Highlights
The world is facing a paradox of hunger amidst abundance, with one person dying from hunger every minute in certain regions.
Despite a surplus of food production, hunger is on the rise due to a complex interplay of factors.
The war in Ukraine has exacerbated the food crisis by disrupting exports of crucial agricultural commodities.
Approximately 25% of Ukraine's arable land has become unfarmable due to the ongoing conflict.
Russia and Ukraine together supply around 25% of the world's traded wheat, highlighting their importance in global food security.
The dependency of developing nations on food imports from Ukraine and Russia poses a significant risk to their food security.
Climate change impacts, such as unpredictable rainfall and extreme weather events, are affecting crop yields and contributing to food insecurity.
The global food system is under pressure, with some theorizing it may be approaching a tipping point of collapse.
The concentration of the global grain trade in the hands of a few countries and corporations raises concerns about equity and sustainability.
The current food system is criticized for focusing on production rather than equitable distribution and affordability.
The role of large corporations in the food industry is questioned, with some accusing them of profiting from high food prices.
The potential collapse of the global food system could lead to a dystopian scenario where only the rich can afford food.
Technological innovations like precision fermentation are proposed as a way to increase local food production and reduce reliance on global trade.
Localizing food production and strengthening regional food systems are suggested as strategies to improve food security.
Diversifying agriculture and investing in innovation to utilize local commodities more effectively is crucial for self-sufficiency.
Implementing progressive taxation measures on excessive corporate profits could be a way to address food affordability issues.
The urgency for governments to act on multiple fronts, including technology, trade, climate change, and wealth redistribution, to prevent a global food catastrophe.
Transcripts
The world is struggling to feed itself.
A planet that once looked like it was winning the war on starvation is now heading for disaster.
“There is one person dying from hunger every minute across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia.
In West Africa, the region is facing its worst hunger crisis in a decade
But when there’s never been more food and there’s never been more farming, how is this possible?
It's an extraordinary situation, isn't it? A world of great abundance. I mean, we have a massive
surplus of food, twice as many calories are produced than humans need to support themselves,
and yet we see rising hunger once again Keep watching to find out what brought
us here. Was it the war in Ukraine? Was it environmental destruction?
We have these three factors coming together, climate change,
hunger and conflict, locking us into this vicious cycle. A kind of trap.
Or is it simply that the system is broken? Many kids think that food comes from the fridge,
right? So that is because food is available through distribution systems. [...] What is
being pressure tested here is that capacity for that system to survive
Is the world food system about to collapse? And if so, what can we do to stop it?
Find out in this edition of Business Beyond. In recent years, the prices for some of
the world’s most crucial foodstuffs have been rising. Dairy products, cereals, and vegetable
oils are now significantly more expensive than they were even a couple of years ago.
One recent event has sent them soaring to new heights: the war in Ukraine.
We haven't been able to export around 20 million tons of agricultural commodities,
which we should definitely have exported if there was no war
The Ukrainian government says that since Russia’s invasion in February of 2022,
around a quarter of the land usually used for planting crops, has become unfarmable.
“...because some territories are partly occupied, and on some territories keep
military battles, and on some still mines.”
Not only that, but much of the produce that IS
being successfully farmed for export is being prevented from leaving the country.
A Russian blockade of Ukraine’s crucial Black Sea ports
means millions of tonnes of wheat, for example, are trapped. The EU calls Russia’s actions a war crime, saying it’s weaponising the lives of the world’s starving poor. Because when Ukraine’s not exporting… the world has a problem. 3.03
Jennifer Clapp - Canada Research Chair in Global Food Security and Sustainability
“So together, Russia and Ukraine supply around 25% of the world's traded wheat.
That's not the wheat that's produced, it's just the wheat that goes on international markets.
The problem with this happening is that we actually have a very concentrated international
grain trade situation where just a handful of countries actually are the ones who are
exporting most of the grain that gets traded. For example, just seven countries
plus the European Union account for almost 90% of the traded wheat on the world market. And just four countries account for over 80% of the traded maize on world markets. And Russia and Ukraine together account for around 60% of the world's sunflower oil. And these are all really important commodities in the food system: wheat, maize, and cooking oil.“
…And because Ukraine is exporting less of those things, their prices are rising. While wealthy
countries can to some extent brush off the rising costs, for developing nations: it’s a disaster.
“Nearly half of African countries import more than a third of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
And, for example, Somalia sources more than 90% from those two countries. So the Ukraine war
has actually revealed just how much lower income countries depend on the world market for the
basic food supplies to feed their people. And this dependency on food imports, it's dangerous
The Russian blockade of the Black Sea means Ukraine and its neighbours
are looking for alternative ways to get Ukraine’s exports to where they need to be.
“We haven't stopped any exports. We haven't put any rejections or
any restrictions on possibilities to export grains from Ukraine. We do our best, as I said, to
increase the volume exported through other routes.”
But replacing sea routes is not proving simple.
“The ports are closed now and they have to do it by land. So you have either trains, trucks or
barges. In terms of rail tracks, the complications are: difference of gauge - the width of the rails.
You also have the fact that the Romanian infrastructure, rail infrastructure, is at max
capacity at the moment, and it cannot take a lot more. It needs investments that cannot happen
within two, three weeks. [...] What we've seen as well is trains would arrive at a certain point and
then they didn't have the paperwork and so they had to wait for the paperwork. And that blocks.”
The absence of Ukrainian exports threatens to push the world over the edge and into a full-blown food
crisis. But that wouldn’t be the case, if the system wasn’t already in dire straits.
Some less wealthy nations were already struggling to feed their populations
because of factors well beyond their control.
“Even before the Ukraine crisis, there are countries like the countries on the edge of
the Sahara, Burkina Faso, Mali, Nigeria and a few others, but also the horn of Africa,
Kenya, Somalia and others that are suffering because of climate change.”
“So we see these impacts of climate change on agriculture, things like
increasing temperature, more variable and more unpredictable rainfall patterns,
and more intense and more frequent extreme weather events, things like flash floods or storms.
And these, of course, affect crop yields. And when crop yields are affected, supply falls. And
of course, then prices rise, and higher prices, of course, contribute to food insecurity.”
And as is so often the case when it comes to climate change, the biggest losers
are not the biggest emitters - the industrialised
nations - but the countries worst equipped to weather the impact.
“So this is happening all over the world. But impacts are perhaps most markedly felt in parts
of Africa and Asia because of the prevalence of poorer and more agrarian economies.”
Agnes Kalibata - President of Alliance for a Green Revolution in
Africa & former Rwanda Agriculture Minister “If you look at Africa here for example,
we experience droughts, we've been experiencing droughts since 2014
and recognizing that that has undermined the ability of the agricultural sector to
be able to provide food is something that the world needs to recognize.”
7.47
Rising global temperatures have already placed less wealthy nations in Africa
and Asia in a position where their citizens won’t be able to withstand today’s rising prices.
7.59
Agnes Kalibata - President of Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa & former
Rwanda Agriculture Minister “There's a risk that about
58 million people in Africa might go hungry,
mostly because of a combination of those factors, a factor of increasing climate change,
but also then increasing prices that make whatever is available outside the reach of most people.”
8.15
ROB WATTS: But as well as these two major external factors - the war in Ukraine and climate change
- there is another significant threat to the global food system. And that’s the system itself.
8.28
BROKEN SYSTEM Janani Vivekananda - Adelphi climate think tank
“So we actually have enough food being produced to feed 12 billion people,
and yet we still have 800 million people going hungry. So this is not
about producing enough or not producing enough food, it's about access poverty.”
8.38
ROB WATTS: That’s right. There is more than enough food in the world to go round. The problem is,
some countries find it easier to get hold of it than others.
8.50
Janani Vivekananda - Adelphi climate think tank “The current food system does not do anything
to address this because all incentives are around
production. So what we don't see are policy incentives to move us towards
more equitable production, more sustainable production and also addressing these issues
of how to get food to those who most need it, and how to ensure that food is affordable.”
“Most countries were producing food and were focusing on producing food as the way of ensuring
food sectors at country level. We then moved into a global food system when the distribution of food
became more important than production of food. So it didn't matter where food was produced
as long as it goes to your front door, right? So the extent that actually many kids think that
food comes from the fridge, right? So that is because food is available through distribution
systems. Now, what is being put to question here is that ability to get food irrespective of what
is produced, what is being pressure tested here is that capacity for that system to survive.“
And there are those who now theorise that the global food system is showing
the signs of a system that is about to fail. “The reason why chronic hunger has been rising
since 2015, is that as this system becomes weaker, shocks are transmitted more easily through it.
And that's a classic sign of a system approaching
its tipping point, getting very close to the point of collapse.”
The writer George Monbiot is among those who believe we’ve seen a key global system
in this state before… Just prior to the 2008 financial crash.
“The global food system has acquired very similar characteristics to the global financial system.
In systems theory terms, It's nodes. In other words, its major operators have become very large.
On one estimate, four corporations control 90% of global grain trade and the seeds, chemicals,
machinery processing, packaging, et cetera, as well. We've seen the behaviour of those big
corporations begin to synchronise. They've become linked in all sorts of obscure ways, quite similar
to how the financial institutions became linked.” The four companies George Monbiot is referring
to are known in international circles as the ABCD companies.
They're called the ABCD because that stands for the first
letter in each of their names. So that's Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus.
And these companies all date back over 100 years, some even longer.
“They're basically logistics firms. They operate in many countries. They own ships, rail cars,
they're getting new stuff from ATB. They don't grow any food, they're not hoarding
it particularly, but they have an extraordinary amount of information. And because we don't have
an international kind of public grain system, they know a lot about what's happening in
all the major importer-exporter countries and there's no other operators that can rival that.”
“In any sector where there's just a handful of companies that are controlling all the business
in a particular sector. It can raise concerns. It can raise concerns about
potential for collusion among those firms conspiring to raise prices or it can raise concern
about the fact that those companies are really controlling the possibilities that others have
to buy and sell things because they are the main middle operators that are moving
grains. So countries that are exporting don't have a lot of choice in terms of
who's going to move their grain and the buyers also don't have a lot of choice.”
Grain isn’t the only crucial food commodity controlled by
((12.50 BUNGE PICS)) just a handful of companies.
((12.52 CARGILL PICS))
There are others. And there are those who argue that
((12.56 DREYFUS PICS))
these corporations are playing a major role in making food unaffordable.
13.00
Devinder Sharma - Food & trade policy analyst ”We all blame the food inflation for the
price rise that we witness in the supermarkets. But in reality it is
not the price rise as far as food prices are concerned. It is the greed of the companies
or the large corporations which is actually driving the prices high.”
13.20
Devinder Sharma argues that corporations are taking advantage of the current situation on
food markets to justify unnecessary price rises, and to line their own pockets.
13.31
Devinder Sharma - Food & trade policy analyst “Nobody wants to even know that the company's
profits have been ploughed in to provide bonuses to the top management.
And whereas the prices for the consumers are going up and then the companies tell,
oh, we are sorry, we can't do anything because the inflation rise is what is being passed on to
consumers. [...] You can always blame farmers for a little rise in prices and you say,
oh, it is the food inflation, but what about the greed inflation that is taking place?
13.09
ROB WATTS: Representatives of the global agricultural and food industry reject the idea
that large companies are dominating the sector, and to the detriment of consumers the world over.
14.22
Iliana Axiotiades - Secretary General of Coceral (Europe agricultural trade body)
“You also have a lot of small companies. You have two people behind the desk. You have small and
medium sized companies. And there's a role for everyone. You have those who do international
trading, intra-EU trading, those who will focus on imports, so those who focus on exports,
et cetera. [...] So traders are not influencing the type of production because there are all kinds
of traders, all size of traders, and there are traders who are specialising in different areas.”
Nevertheless, we have a global system, viewed by many as already flawed,
that is now facing a series of shocks beyond its control. And that is what
has raised fears of a catastrophic collapse of the world’s food supplies.
“If the food system collapses, well, we’re talking about a whole different scale of effects.
Basically it means that the rich will continue to eat and the poor just won't eat at all. Food will
not go to the poor because food prices will, soar only the rich will be able to afford it. And
it's almost a sort of horror film scenario. It's dystopian.”
So what needs to be done if the world is to avoid
catastrophe? Well there is a whole feast of possible solutions. So let’s
work through some of them. First of all, can we invent our way out of trouble?
“There's some really exciting new technologies which have come along just when we need them
most. The biggest shift is going to be towards precision fermentation, using microbes to produce
protein and fat instead of using animals and soya and palm oil and the rest of it.
[...] You could set up a brewery outside every town. You can have local businesses
using precision fermentation to brew protein and fat, which can then be turned by those
local businesses into products suitable for the local market, completely autonomously.
The idea of localising production is at the centre of a lot of the possible
solutions to the world’s current food problems.
This could help end the inequality of access between wealthy nations and less wealthy nations.
“I think what you would do better is to have these stronger national, regional food systems, more
production, but also exchange of food that would then engage in the global system and benefit from
the rules. But it wouldn't be dictated to by the global rules. You would be looking for more scale
appropriate rules where you need them and without inhibiting global commerce. You wouldn't allow
global commerce to overshadow the much larger amount of food that is domestic and even local
that is being met in a local or a regional system.”
As well as changing where we get our food from - we might also need to start changing what we eat.
“We need to strengthen the capability of countries to feed their people.
Part of this will come from diversification, like I said earlier, growing what we do well.
And there are many commodities here in Africa that people can do well that they can grow.
And we need to invest in innovation that takes these commodities and gives us products that we
are looking for anyway in other commodities that we import. So increasing the place of cassava,
the place of millet in bread that we use wheat for, or in other products that we use wheat for,
is something that is beginning to happen and it's something that countries should double down on.”
Then there’s also the issue of ensuring the citizens of these countries
can afford the food that’s available.
“What you want to do is put money in people's hands. You want to do that.
You want to do that through welfare programs because Covid showed like 160
or more countries, some of the poorest countries in the world
put money in people's hands, people who'd lost their jobs, and that gave them that.
They found food. There’s food in the system and you want people to be able to access it.“
And how do you put more money in more people’s hands?
Well some activists are clear on the answer to that. It’s a clear case of wealth redistribution.
“The fortunes of food billionaires have risen during the COVID pandemic
and there are now 62 new food billionaires in the world.
So people in poorer countries spend more than twice as much of their money on food than those in
rich countries. And while inflation is rising everywhere, the food price hikes are particularly
devastating for low-wage workers whose health and livelihoods have already been vulnerable.
One measure to address this could be that the government start implementing progressive
taxation measures to tax these excessive corporate profits that were made during the pandemic.”
New technology, localising trade, tackling climate change and taxing the rich. Just some of the
solutions that could rescue the world food system from the brink of collapse.
The stakes could not be higher - millions of people’s lives are at risk.
The tools are there to prevent a true catastrophe. It’s time for governments to use them.
That’s all from this edition of Business Beyond. If you’ve enjoyed it
please hit like and subscribe, and check out our playlist. Our recent video about
the global boom in billionaires is well worth a watch. Until next time, take care.
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