The Rising Incompetence of the Russian System || Peter Zeihan
Summary
TLDRIn the video, Peter Zeihan discusses a recent terror attack in Russia, claimed by the Islamic State Khorasan. He highlights the group's history and motives, pointing out their focus on attacking secular Muslim governments. Zeihan critiques Russia's handling of the incident, especially given prior American warnings, and suggests a potential link to Ukraine by Russian authorities. He explores the broader context of Russia's internal demographics and geopolitical strategy, suggesting that rising discontent among non-ethnic Russian populations could lead to increased instability. The video underscores strategic missteps by Putin and the potential for significant political upheaval in Russia.
Takeaways
- 📢 Peter Zion discusses a follow-up to a video about a terror attack in Russia.
- 💥 The group Islamic State Kusan claimed responsibility for the attack.
- 🌐 This group gained attention in the U.S. when they attacked Taliban forces in Afghanistan.
- 🔫 Their goal is to punish those with connections to secular Muslim governments, especially Shia ones.
- 🏥 The attack in Moscow resulted in at least 130 deaths and 100 hospitalizations.
- 🔍 The Russian authorities claim to have captured 11 people related to the attack, including four gunmen.
- 🚨 The U.S. had warned Russia about a potential attack on concert locations, but it was not heeded.
- 🤔 Russia is trying to link the attack to Ukraine, suggesting the attackers are fleeing towards Ukraine.
- 🌍 There are various ethnic Muslim groups within the Russian Federation who may be motivated by the attack.
- 🔄 Demographic shifts and potential civic violence could impact the political stability of the Russian Federation.
Q & A
Who claimed responsibility for the terror attack in Russia mentioned in the script?
-Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) claimed responsibility for the terror attack in Russia.
What is the Islamic State Khorasan, and how does it relate to the original Islamic State?
-Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) is an offshoot of the original Islamic State, focusing on punishing those connected to secular Muslim governments, especially Shia ones, rather than holding territory.
How did the Islamic State Khorasan first come to the attention of Americans?
-IS-K first gained attention from Americans when they launched an attack during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, targeting Taliban forces rather than American forces.
What was the response of Russian authorities to the attack, and how did they interpret its implications?
-Russian authorities captured 11 people associated with the attack and tried to publicly link it to Ukraine, although they stopped short of blaming Ukrainians directly for the attack itself.
What was the outcome of the terror attack in terms of casualties?
-The terror attack in Moscow claimed at least 130 lives, with at least another 100 people hospitalized.
How did the United States respond prior to the attack in Russia?
-The United States warned of a potential attack on concert locations on March 7 and went public with the information to alert Americans in the area when Russia did not take it seriously.
What is the demographic concern in Russia that was mentioned in relation to the timing of the Ukraine war?
-The demographic concern in Russia is the declining number of young people available for military service, leading to the urgency in launching the Ukraine war.
How does the script describe the potential internal security situation in Russia following the attack?
-The script suggests that the attack could inspire anti-Moscow sentiments among various ethnic and religious groups in Russia, leading to a broad-based uprising or ongoing terror attacks.
What strategic errors did Putin make according to the script?
-According to the script, Putin made strategic errors in security, underestimating global and regional responses, and misinterpreting security information.
What could be the political implications of the attack for Russia's stability, as inferred from the script?
-The attack could cause cracks in Russia's political facade, leading to potential challenges to its stability and possibly igniting a fundamental change or uprising.
Outlines
🌍 The Impact of a Terror Attack in Russia
Peter Zion reports on a follow-up to a terror attack in Russia claimed by Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), a group known for its previous attacks, including against Taliban forces in Afghanistan and a recent operation in Iran. IS-K, a Sunni extremist group, aims to target governments with any secular Muslim ties, especially Shia. The recent attack in Russia resulted in at least 130 deaths and over 100 injuries. Russian authorities have reportedly captured 11 individuals linked to the attack. Zion criticizes the Russian security services' failure to act on American intelligence warning of the attack and highlights Russia's attempt to associate the attack with Ukraine. He discusses the broader implications for Russia, including the potential for increased domestic and regional tensions, given the significant Muslim population within Russia and its southern regions. Zion also reflects on Putin's strategic missteps in security and the potential for political instability in Russia.
🔍 Potential for Political Change in Russia
In this brief conclusion, Peter Zion speculates on the potential for the terror attack to initiate significant political change in Russia. He cautions that it's too early to predict a revolution but suggests that such events could lead to critical shifts in Russia's political landscape. The attack may exacerbate existing tensions and discontent, contributing to a more unstable environment that could challenge the regime's durability and provoke discussions about Russia's future.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Terror Attack
💡Islamic State Kusan
💡Afghanistan
💡Iran
💡Russian Security Services
💡Ukraine
💡Muslim Population
💡Demographic Shifts
💡Putin
💡Election
💡Strategic Errors
Highlights
Peter Zion discusses a follow-up to a video on a terror attack in Russia.
The terror group Islamic State Kusan claims responsibility for the attack.
Islamic State Kusan first gained attention after attacking Taliban forces in Afghanistan.
The group's goal is to punish those with connections to secular Muslim governments, particularly Shia ones.
The Moscow attack claimed at least 130 lives and injured another 100 people.
The Russian Security Services failed to act on American warnings about a potential attack on concert locations.
Russian officials initially dismissed the American warnings as a fake ward to destabilize Russian society.
Russian authorities have arrested 11 people in connection with the attack, including four gunmen.
Russia is trying to link the attack to Ukraine, suggesting the attackers are fleeing towards Ukraine.
Several ethnic groups within the Russian Federation, such as the Chins, Dagestanis, and Tatars, might be motivated by the attack.
Over 10% of the Russian population is Muslim, with majority Muslim republics on the southern border of Russia.
The relationship between Muslims within Russia and those beyond is complex, with varying levels of support and opposition.
Russia's demographic situation is challenging, with a declining population and a significant non-ethnic Russian minority.
Putin's strategic errors in the security field are highlighted, despite his background as a former intelligence agent.
The attack could potentially lead to political instability in the Russian Federation.
The situation in Russia is brittle, and such attacks may cause significant shifts in the country's political landscape.
Transcripts
hey y'all this is Peter Zion coming to
you from Colorado this is a follow-up to
yesterday's video on the terror attack
in Russia uh a group by the name of
Islamic State kusan has claimed the
attack uh this is a group we've heard of
before the first time they kind of Hit
the uh the airwaves from an American
point of view is when they launched an
attack as the Americans were pulling out
of Afghanistan over a year ago uh but
they didn't attack American forces they
attacked Taliban forces and they've been
Thorn on the side of the Taliban ever
since um since then they've launched a
number of other attacks including the
January attack in Iran and now obviously
this operation in Russia uh Islamic
State Coran is an offshoot as it sounds
of the Islamic State but rather than
hold territory their goal is to
basically punish anyone who might have
any uh connections to a secular Muslim
government especially if it's a Shia
government isamic State like most Terror
groups are
Sunni
uh they're not particularly the nice
people they're not going to be in a
Disney movie anytime soon and so far the
attack in Moscow has claimed at least
130 lives with at least another 100
people in hospital the Russians are
claiming that they've captured 11 people
in association with the attack including
four gunmen who were actually going
through the theater shooting people
there's no way to confirm any of that
information um what we do know is that
this is a very very very bad thing for
the Russians a couple things number one
the Americans warned specifically of an
attack on concert locations back on
March 7 and when the Russians didn't
take it seriously the Americans went
public with the information to at least
allow the chance for Americans who were
in the area to you know be give a heads
up um Putin even gave a press conference
where he was almost giggling about how
this was a
fake uh warding intended to destabilize
Russian society and then the attack
happened despite having the Intel in
hand uh the degree of sheer incompetence
in the Russian Security Services to not
even deal with that information and just
let the attack unfold is um almost
beyond words uh second the Russians are
doing everything they can at least
publicly to link this to Ukraine uh
they're not claiming that the attack was
carried out by ukrainians any longer
they were hinting at that last night uh
but they are saying that the forces when
they escaped or making a beine for
Ukraine because the ukrainians had
opened a gap in the front which is of
course silly there's so many maybe
better better better places in Russia to
just melt away undoubtedly these folks
came up through the southern reaches
either the aabani border the kazak
Border uh where security is very very
thin uh number three uh there are any
number of ethnic groups in the Russian
Federation who are going to be motivated
by this uh The Chins the dagestanis the
tdds the Bashers got keep in mind that
well over 10% of the Russian population
is Muslim and if you're looking at the
republics on the southern border of
Russia they're all majority Muslim um
the relationship between the Muslims
within Russia and the Muslims Beyond
Russia is mixed uh sometimes the
Russians are on their side sometimes
they're not but the Russians see all of
them as subject peoples and so if if if
you take existing groups throughout the
Russian Southern periphery within
Russian property who are anti- Moscow
and they start to get inspired by things
like this you're talking about the
Russians facing a broad-based Uprising
or even just
multiple pin prks of Terror attacks on
an ongoing basis one of the reasons why
the Russians launched the Ukraine war
when they did is because their
demographics have turned terminal and if
you fast forward just to 2030 2035
they'll have run out of people in their
20s to throw into a war so it always had
to happen now if it was going to happen
what is true among the ethnic Russians
is not true against the broader Russian
citizenry over 20% of the population of
Russia probably closer to 30% is not
ethnic Russian the vast majority of
those most people are Muslims or
ukrainians and they're not very happy
with their situation so if you take a
rising demographic that is now starting
to develop a pension for civic violence
against declining population that is
desperate to hold on I mean you can do
the math and see where that goes uh
Putin has made a series of strategic
errors in the security field where as a
Former Intelligence agent you would
think that he would be better uh on
guessing what the wider world was going
to do on guessing how Ukraine was going
to fall on interpreting security
information and all of this is coming to
a head just after he arranged for his
own election party where he was uh
getting 80% of the vote because he
wasn't running against anyone else uh
this is got to have an impact on
political stability in the Russian
Federation now there's not going to be a
Revolution in Russia until the day that
there is the system is strong but it's
brittle and attacks like this are the
sort of things that can cause cracks
through the entire facade and start
something fundamentally new I'm not
calling that at this moment it's way too
early but this is the sort of thing that
in Russia history turns
on
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