Ask Peter Zeihan: Will Putin "Disappear" and Updates on Russian Demographics?

Summary

In this analysis, Peter Zeihan discusses Russia’s ongoing war, focusing on its geographic and demographic challenges. He explores how Russia’s strategy is shaped by the need to secure key land access points, dating back to the Soviet era. Zeihan highlights Russia's severe demographic crisis, exacerbated by historical trauma and war, leading to a lack of young, skilled workers. He examines the potential collapse of Putin’s regime and the broader implications of a military defeat, stressing that Russia’s political and economic systems are unsustainable in the long term. The war, he argues, is existential for Russia, with no clear off-ramp for Putin and his government.

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Q & A

What is the main geopolitical objective for Russia in the war, according to the transcript?

Russia's primary objective in the war is to secure key geographical funnel points in its territory. These points, surrounded by natural barriers, are seen as critical for defending the country against future aggressors. The Kremlin has been working since the collapse of the Soviet Union to re-establish control over these areas.

How has Russia's demographic situation affected its military capabilities?

Russia’s demographic crisis, caused by historical trauma and worsened by the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, has significantly reduced the available pool of young men eligible for military service. This has been compounded by millions of young men fleeing the country to avoid conscription during the war, further shrinking Russia's military manpower.

What historical events contributed to the demographic collapse in Russia?

The demographic collapse in Russia can be attributed to several traumatic events, including the World Wars, the effects of collectivization, and the mismanagement during the leadership of Khrushchev and Brezhnev. The most significant event was the post-Soviet collapse in the 1990s, when Russia's death rate doubled and the birth rate halved.

What role did the Soviet intelligence apparatus play in Russia's current political system?

The Soviet intelligence apparatus played a central role in Russia's political system after the Soviet Union's collapse. In 1982, a coup led by the KGB and other intelligence services effectively purged rival factions and took control of the Soviet decision-making process. This group maintained power after the Soviet system fell, and many of the current Russian leadership, including Putin, have ties to this intelligence community.

What is the connection between Russia’s technical education collapse and its current capabilities?

The collapse of technical education in Russia, particularly after 1986, has created a shortage of skilled workers. This has left Russia unable to maintain its critical infrastructure, including the military and energy systems. The lack of trained professionals is increasingly evident in the ongoing war, as the country struggles to maintain its capabilities.

How has Russia's reliance on foreign workers affected its economy during the war?

Russia’s reliance on foreign workers, particularly for complex engineering tasks in areas like Siberia, has been crucial to maintaining its energy and military infrastructure. However, with the departure of foreign workers due to sanctions and the war, Russia is now facing a significant capacity shortage in these sectors, which will further damage its economy and ability to sustain the war effort.

What might trigger a leadership change in Russia during the war?

A catastrophic military defeat, particularly one where Russia is humiliated on the battlefield and its military is shown to be ineffective, could trigger a leadership change in Russia. This could lead to a rebellion within Moscow and the removal of Putin and his inner circle, though it’s uncertain whether the war would immediately end after such a change.

What role does the fear of invasion play in Russia’s aggressive military stance?

Russia perceives the war as existential due to its belief that failing to secure key geographical areas would leave the country vulnerable to future invasion. This fear drives Russia's aggressive military stance and its determination to win, despite the high costs and strategic disadvantages.

What would be the consequences of a potential democratic government in Russia regarding the war with Ukraine?

Even under a democratic government, it is likely that Russia would continue its aggression towards Ukraine, as many leaders, including opposition figures like Navalny, still view Ukraine as part of Russia’s territory. Therefore, a shift to democracy wouldn’t necessarily end the conflict.

Why is there no viable off-ramp for Putin in the war according to the transcript?

There is no viable off-ramp for Putin because Russia has already paid a high price for the war with none of the expected benefits. The leadership is deeply implicated in war crimes and the country’s economic situation is deteriorating. Even if Ukraine were willing to negotiate peace, the Russian government could not recover its pre-war economic status, making a peaceful resolution highly unlikely.