How To Make Millions In A Recession Market Crash
Summary
TLDREl guion del video revela la realidad de los embates del mercado bursátil y cómo prepararse para ellos. Se discuten estrategias para identificar las fases de un colapso y aprovecharlos, como la corrección del mercado, el mercado en bajista y el colapso del mercado. El hablante comparte su experiencia de más de 35 años y consejos para invertir sabiamente durante los altibajos, enfatizando la importancia de la diversificación y la gestión de riesgos. Además, menciona la oportunidad de adquirir activos a bajo precio durante las fases de recuperación del mercado.
Takeaways
- 📉 La bolsa de valores puede sufrir caídas, pero esto no siempre es negativo si se está preparado adecuadamente.
- 🧐 Existen tres tipos de declive en el mercado: correcciones (bajadas del 10%), mercados bajistas (bajadas del 20%) y colapsos del mercado (bajadas del 30%).
- 📊 Las correcciones ocurren promedio cada 1.2 años, los mercados bajistas cada 4 años y 8 meses, y los colapsos son muy raros.
- 💡 Es importante estar preparado para las caídas del mercado, de lo contrario, no deberías invertir en acciones.
- 🕵️♂️ Se pueden detectar signos de una caída del mercado durante la fase de euforia, donde los precios alcanzan niveles insostenibles.
- 🏦 En la fase de euforia, se pueden observar signos como un aumento en el gasto de los consumidores y una facilidad en obtener crédito.
- 🛡️ Para prepararse ante una caída, se deben evaluar y minimizar los riesgos, reducir la apalancamiento y ahorrar en cuentas de ahorro de alto interés.
- 🔄 La diversificación de inversiones es una forma efectiva de resistir los colapsos del mercado, distribuyendo los recursos en múltiples sectores.
- 💸 Durante una caída del mercado, es fundamental mantener la calma y no vender las inversiones impulsivamente, sino invertir en ellas si se tiene convicción.
- 📈 Después de una caída, el mercado tiende a recuperarse y superar los máximos anteriores, lo que se conoce como la fase del Fénix.
- 🌱 Las semillas de la fortuna a menudo se siembran en tiempos de crisis y incertidumbre, lo que puede resultar en una oportunidad de inversión.
- 📚 Comprender los fundamentos de una empresa antes de invertir en su acción es crucial para mantener la confianza durante las caídas del mercado.
Q & A
¿Qué es un colapso del mercado bursátil y qué tan común es?
-Un colapso del mercado bursátil es un descenso del 30% o más en el mercado, generalmente en un corto período de tiempo. Aunque son muy poco comunes, pueden ocurrir. El hablante menciona que si Trump no hubiera estado vivo, podría haber sido un escenario muy real, debido a cómo el mercado reacciona a eventos de esta naturaleza.
¿Cómo se define una corrección del mercado y cuán común es?
-Una corrección del mercado se define como una caída del 10% como mínimo desde un máximo reciente. Se considera el tipo más común de descenso en el mercado y, en promedio, ha ocurrido alrededor de cada 1.2 años desde 1980.
¿Qué es un mercado en bajista y cuánto tiempo dura en promedio?
-Un mercado en bajista es cuando los precios han caído en más del 20%. Desde 1932, estos han aparecido en promedio cada cuatro años y ocho meses, y tienden a mantener el mercado en descenso durante aproximadamente 289 días o 9.6 meses.
¿Cómo se puede preparar para un colapso del mercado si se percibe que se avecina?
-El hablante sugiere evaluar y minimizar el nivel de riesgo, reducir la apalancamiento, ahorrar dinero adicional en cuentas de ahorro de alto interés y asegurarse de que las inversiones estén bien diversificadas.
¿Qué es la fase de euforia en el mercado y cómo se identifica?
-La fase de euforia es cuando el mercado está en su punto más alto y la excitación irracional lleva a los precios a niveles insostenibles. El hablante menciona que cuando nota esta felicidad ciega, se prepara para cuando todo regrese a la realidad.
¿Qué señales de alerta identificó el hablante antes de la crisis financiera de 2008?
-El hablante identificó un auge en el gasto de los consumidores y un aumento en el número de personas comprando casas o refinanciando, debido a que era más fácil obtener crédito en ese momento.
¿Qué estrategias sugiere el hablante para manejar la fase de desvalorización del mercado?
-El hablante sugiere mantener la calma, entender los fundamentos de las empresas en las que se invierte, y utilizar la estrategia del coste medio (dollar cost averaging) para invertir en el mercado.
¿Qué es el 'coste medio' y cómo se puede aplicar durante una fase de desvalorización del mercado?
-El coste medio, o 'dollar cost averaging', es una estrategia de inversión en la que se invierte una cantidad fija de dinero en un activo a intervalos regulares, sin importar el precio del activo en ese momento. Ayuda a reducir el impacto de las fluctuaciones del mercado.
¿Qué es la fase de juicio y cómo afecta a los inversores?
-La fase de juicio es cuando la realidad de la sobrevaloración se establece, provocando un pánico generalizado y ventas masivas. Es un momento donde los inversores se enfrentan a la tentación de vender sus inversiones para cortar sus pérdidas.
¿Cómo se puede aprovechar la fase de recuperación del mercado, también conocida como la fase de la Fénix?
-Durante la fase de la Fénix, el mercado comienza a recuperarse y a重建, superando los máximos del mercado anteriores. El hablante sugiere tener una cartera diversificada y estar preparado para invertir en activos a precios bajos durante esta fase.
¿Por qué es importante la diversificación de inversiones durante un colapso del mercado?
-La diversificación ayuda a reducir el riesgo al no tener todos los huevos en una misma canasta. Si un sector en particular es golpeado más duro durante un colapso, las inversiones en múltiples sectores pueden mitigar las pérdidas.
¿Qué es un 'high yield cash account' y cómo puede ser útil durante una crisis económica?
-Un 'high yield cash account' es una cuenta de ahorros que ofrece un rendimiento de interés más alto que la media. Es útil durante una crisis económica porque permite a los inversores obtener ganancias de sus ahorros sin tomar riesgos adicionales, y puede ser una fuente de ingresos adicionales para invertir en activos bajovaluados.
¿Qué es 'shorting stocks' y cómo se relaciona con la estrategia de inversiones del hablante?
-Shorting stocks es apostar a que el precio de una acción disminuirá. Aunque el hablante no practica esta estrategia personalmente, reconoce que algunos inversores, como Michael Burry, han tenido éxito con ella.
¿Cómo se puede mantener una fuente de ingresos constante durante un colapso del mercado?
-El hablante sugiere mantener un ingreso estable y, si posible, aumentarlo con una actividad adicional (side hustle). Esto permite tener efectivo para invertir en oportunidades durante un colapso del mercado.
¿Qué lecciones clave tomó el hablante de sus experiencias con varios colapsos del mercado?
-El hablante aprendió que un mercado en alza casi siempre sigue a un mercado en bajista y que las semillas de la fortuna a menudo se siembran en tiempos de crisis y incertidumbre. Manejando el nivel de riesgo y invirtiendo de manera consistente con una cartera diversificada, se tiene más probabilidades de éxito.
Outlines
📉 'Preparación ante el colapso del mercado'
El primer párrafo aborda la inevitabilidad de los colapsos del mercado y cómo prepararse para ellos. Se menciona que, aunque los colapsos son comunes, no tienen por qué ser negativos si se está preparado. El locutor comparte su experiencia de más de 35 años de inversiones y cómo ha logrado ganar dinero a través de varios colapsos del mercado. Se definen tres tipos de declive del mercado: correcciones, mercados bajistas y colapsos del mercado. Se discuten las fases de un colapso del mercado y estrategias para cada una, incluyendo la evaluación de riesgos, la reducción de la deuda y la acumulación de efectivo en cuentas de ahorro de alto interés. Además, se enfatiza la importancia de la diversificación y se ofrecen consejos sobre cómo actuar durante una crisis financiera.
💸 'Estrategias para superar la fase de colapso del mercado'
El segundo párrafo se centra en las estrategias para manejar la fase de colapso del mercado, también conocida como la fase de 'revelación'. Se describe cómo el mercado se desploma y cómo es crucial mantener la calma y no vender en pánico. Se sugiere que los inversores deben entender las bases de las empresas en las que invierten y utilizar la información para tomar decisiones informadas. Se comparte la historia de Peter Lynch y su inversión en Kaiser Industries, resaltando la importancia de la paciencia y la comprensión de los fundamentos de una empresa. Además, se discute la técnica de 'coste promedio' y la ventaja de tener efectivo en momentos de crisis para aprovechar las oportunidades de inversión.
🌟 'La fase de renacimiento del mercado y cómo aprovecharla'
El tercer párrafo trata sobre la fase final del colapso del mercado, conocida como la 'fase de la Fénix', donde el mercado comienza a recuperarse y superar sus máximos anteriores. Se comparte la experiencia del locutor con varios colapsos del mercado y cómo, a pesar de las dificultades, siempre ha seguido una tendencia de mercados alza después de los mercados bajistas. Se enfatiza la importancia de la consistencia en la inversión y la diversificación del portafolio para tener éxito en el mercado. Finalmente, se invita a los espectadores a suscribirse y se ofrece un enlace a un video adicional sobre cómo comenzar a invertir en el mercado de valores.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Mercado de valores
💡Quiebre del mercado
💡Corrección del mercado
💡Mercado en pánico
💡Euforia
💡Diversificación
💡Margen
💡Coste de capital promedio
💡Estrategia de inversión
💡Crisis del 2008
💡Rentabilidad de la inversión
Highlights
El mercado de valores puede colapsar y esto no es necesariamente una mala cosa si estás adecuadamente preparado.
El orador ha invertido durante más de 35 años y ha ganado dinero tras varios colapsos del mercado.
Existen tres tipos de declive del mercado: correcciones, mercados bajistas y colapsos del mercado de valores.
Las correcciones son caídas del 10% o más y ocurren promedio cada 1.2 años.
Mercados bajistas, con caídas superiores al 20%, ocurren aproximadamente cada cuatro años y ocho meses.
Un colapso del mercado de valores es una caída del 30% o más en un corto período de tiempo.
Si no estás preparado para que el mercado baje, no deberías invertir en acciones.
El orador describe las fases de un colapso del mercado y las estrategias para cada una.
La fase de euforia es cuando el mercado está en su pico y la excitación irracional lleva a precios insostenibles.
La crisis de 2008 y la fiebre de las NFT son ejemplos de la fase de euforia.
Evaluar y minimizar el riesgo de las inversiones es crucial antes de un colapso del mercado.
Reducir el uso de margen y ahorrar en cuentas de ahorro de alto interés puede proteger durante un colapso.
La diversificación de inversiones es una forma de resistir los golpes del mercado.
La fase del juicio es cuando el mercado se desploma y es difícil no verse afectado.
La comprensión de las bases de una empresa es fundamental para mantener la calma durante la fase del juicio.
Durante el colapso, es importante invertir de manera constante y con un enfoque a largo plazo.
La fase de la Fénix es cuando el mercado comienza a recuperarse y supera los máximos anteriores.
Las semillas de la fortuna se siembran en tiempos de crisis y incertidumbre.
La consistencia en la inversión y una cartera diversificada aumentan las posibilidades de éxito.
Transcripts
- So the stock market will crash.
It's happened time and time again.
This is the scary truth.
However, it doesn't have to be a bad thing.
As long as you are properly prepared,
you can benefit from the chaos.
I've been investing for more than 35 years,
and as you can imagine during that time,
I've experienced lots of these crashes.
However, I always seem
to come out the other side wealthier than before.
So today I wanna share the knowledge
that has helped me make millions
through multiple market crashes.
By understanding these strategies,
you can spot the warning signs of a crash
and use them to your advantage.
So how common is a market crash?
Well, there are three different types of market decline.
First is the most common type of decline,
a market correction.
This is defined as at least a 10% drop from a recent high.
These can be caused by various factors,
but think of it as the stock market,
realizing it's getting a bit expensive
and cutting back prices.
On average, these have happened
around every 1.2 years since 1980.
The second most common type of decline is a bear market.
Now, you know when you're in a bear market,
when prices have dropped more than 20%.
Since 1932, these bear markets
have popped up on average every four
years and eight months.
They tend to keep dragging the market down
for about 289 days, or roughly 9.6 months.
Sure, that sounds like a long time,
but keep in mind that bull markets,
which is when the market is going up,
usually last around 965 days or 2.6 years.
The third type is a stock market collapse,
which I class as an over 30% drop
in the stock market,
normally within a very short amount of time,
although these are very uncommon, they can happen.
In my opinion, if Trump had been unalived,
then this could have been a very real scenario.
That isn't a political view, just a logical one
due to the way the stock market reacts
to this kind of thing.
The main takeaway from all of this
is that if you aren't ready for the stock market
to go down sometimes,
then you shouldn't be investing in stocks.
So how do you spot a market crash?
Well, let's discuss the free phases of a market crash
so you'll know what to look out for.
I'll also share the strategies I use at each stage backed
by real life examples from my experience.
This way you'll be better prepared than most investors.
Remember, I'm not a financial advisor,
and this isn't financial advice.
I'm just sharing what's worked for me over the years.
Number one, the euphoria phase.
This is a stage where the market is at its peak
and irrational excitement drives prices
to unsustainable levels.
During this stage, everyone is happy and flying high.
When I start seeing this blind happiness,
I prepare my investments
for when everything comes crashing back to reality.
Before the 2008 financial crisis,
there was a couple of things that I noticed
that really made me cautious about investing.
First was the boom in consumer spending.
Everyone had money.
They were spending thousands and the economy was thriving.
A more recent example of this is the NFT craze
a couple of years ago.
Never in a million years would I have thought
that people would buy JPEG image files
for millions of dollars.
Things like this are a clear sign
of too much money in circulation.
The second thing I noticed in 2008 was the increase
in the number of people buying houses or refinancing.
This is because it was easier than ever to get credit
as the housing market was booming,
which meant if people were unable to pay their mortgages,
then the banks could take back
the properties without losing any money.
Now, it's one thing noticing these little clues,
but it's another thing actually taking action
and preparing yourself.
Between 2007-08, I could have just gone along with the crowd
as the general herd mentality was that everything was great
and nothing would ever go wrong.
But instead, I started to prepare my investments
for the worst.
At the time, lots of my friends
and fellow business owners didn't quite understand
the decisions I was making.
They may have even seen me as a bit of a coward,
but from my perspective,
I don't think they understood
how much risk they were taking.
So if your spidey senses start tinkling,
these are some of the things you can do
to prepare yourself for the worst.
First, I would evaluate
and minimize your risk level wherever possible.
Personally, I'm not focused on chasing crazy high returns
as that's unsustainable for the long term.
I just wanna be making reasonable gains consistently
so my money compounds.
I always think about the story of the tortoise and the hare.
I know it might sound boring,
especially coming from a boomer,
but slow and steady does win the race.
If you're new to investing,
there's a high chance you haven't experienced
a real market crash.
It can be horrifying
to see your portfolio completely halving in value
and sitting deep in the red for a brief period of time.
So you have to ask yourself if you could mentally handle
this kind of drop without selling your investment.
Secondly, I would start to reduce my leverage.
Now, on one hand, leverage is a great way
to accelerate wealth, but it can also be very dangerous.
The thing is, if a stock crashed too far,
then your investing platform may issue a margin call,
which means you have a limited amount of time
to pay off your debts,
and if you don't, your brokerage may sell your stocks
at the bottom of the market
to recover the money you borrowed.
If this is something you're considering
or even doing, then if I were you,
I would be paying some of this debt off.
I never use margin, but that's a personal choice,
and I'm well aware that by not taking on this risk,
I'm missing out on some potential profits.
The truth is I've seen too many
of my friends go from millionaire status
to broke in a blink of an eye.
And now I just stay well clear of it.
Thirdly, I'd start saving some extra cash
in a high interest savings account.
I know I bang on about having an emergency fund
of three to five months of your living expenses,
but I'm talking about saving even more.
I did this between 2007-08.
From the outside, it looked a bit strange.
The market was booming,
and by leaving my money in the bank,
I wasn't taking advantage of it.
However, I noticed that more
and more people were getting interested in investing,
which tipped me off that there was a bit
of a bubble forming.
You see, when everyone starts getting comfortable
with the idea of investing,
it can be a sign
that things are about to pop as pricing is being propped up
by inexperienced investors.
The trouble is that at the first sign of a crash,
lots of these people panic sell,
which drives the prices down even further,
leading to a spiral of doom.
Finally, in this stage,
I would make sure my investments were properly spread out.
This is called diversification,
and it's one of the best ways
to help withstand a market crash as quite simply per,
you haven't got all your eggs in one basket.
This is all because you never know
what sector is gonna be hit the hardest.
During the good times,
it can be very common for people
to do very well with one or two stocks
and end up with most of their money focused
in only a couple of different companies.
Even if they start out with lots of different stocks,
it can almost seem silly
to put your money into other things when one stock
outperforms all your others.
Let's use some of my favorite stocks as an example.
Say you have a thousand dollars to invest.
Now, you could put all of that into Tesla with the hopes
of it going to the moon,
but if Tesla gets hit the hardest in a market crash,
it won't be great news for your money.
Whereas investing into a total US stock market fund would
spread your money across multiple different industries.
Look, nobody can predict if the stock market's gonna go up
or continue downwards.
However, diversifying goes some way to reducing your risk.
Yes, you can't guarantee returns,
but at least you're investing in a broad range of sectors.
Another great way to diversify while guaranteeing a return
on investment is through something called a high
yield cash account.
Take a look at this, for example.
Let's say you have $5,000
to put by with an additional $250 being saved monthly.
Within five years,
you'd have earned $3,493
without making a risky
investment because the account pays you 5.1% interest
that compounds daily.
Public offered this account
with zero fees or subscriptions required,
as well as giving you the ability
to invest in thousands of stocks
and ETFs with very low fees.
I was planning on mentioning Public anyway,
so I reached out to them to see if they were interested
in sponsoring this video.
They agreed on offering a free stock worth up to $300
to anyone that signs up and funds their account.
Just sign up for Public, deposit $20 or more,
and enter the code MARK2024 via the rewards hub
in the public app.
I'll leave a link in the description if you're interested,
along with some other options if you're not in the USA.
Number two, the reckoning phase.
I like to call this as everyone gets rudely punched
in the face with the truth
and only the ones that know how to navigate it will be able
to hold their nerve and make some money.
This is the phase where the reality
of overvaluation sets in,
triggering widespread panic and sell offs.
What I'm trying to get at is in this phase,
the stock market just comes tumbling down
and it's next to impossible to be unaffected.
Even my son knew something was happening in 2008
and he was only 10.
The number of customers that came
into my hobby stores halved overnight,
and even when they did come in,
they didn't spend anything.
on the bright side,
I had lots of products which I owned,
and my warehouses were full.
It was sort of a bit like a safety blanket, I suppose.
In 2008, I saw dollar stores opening up everywhere.
It was the perfect mixture of demand for cheap goods
and supply of products from failing businesses.
Even if you manage to predict all the signs of the crash
and in phase one prepared correctly,
phase two is really where you get tested.
It's more about human psychology
as most people's initial reaction
is to sell their investments and cut their losses.
You need to seriously ask yourself,
what are you gonna do when the market goes down?
Everyone says they're long-term investors
until the market crashes.
It's very easy to be a long-term investor
while everything's going up.
If you believe in your investments,
then you have to hold firm.
To have this kind of belief,
you need to know why you invested in something.
That's why it's so important to understand the fundamentals
of a company before investing in their stock.
This reminds me of a story Peter Lynch once shared.
He's a well-known investor,
and back in the day he bought shares in Kaiser Industries
when they dropped significantly.
The company had zero debt making bankruptcy very unlikely.
He thought to himself, how much lower can it go?
But the price kept dropping to under $10.
He was shocked,
but held on
and the stock eventually rebounded to $50.
The point is, if you don't understand the company,
what will you do when the stock keeps dropping?
Probably sell and lose out on potential gains.
This applies to index fund investors as well.
A study by Fidelity actually found out
that if you invested $10,000 in a simple S&P 500 index fund
between the 1st of January, 1980,
and the 31st of December, 2022,
you would have $1,082,009.
But if you decided to sell your investments
and ended up missing the five best trading days,
then you would only have $671,051.
The crazy thing is that missing out
just 50 of the best trading days
brings you all the way down to $76,104.
So you might think you are being smart
by time in the market,
but in the long run,
you're probably only gonna hurt your own profits.
But if you believe in your stocks for the long term,
there is a lot more to it than just holding firm.
In 2008, I saw what the dollar stores were doing,
and instead of seeing a competitor, I saw an opportunity.
If they could buy things for a bargain price,
then it must mean there were amazing deals available.
So I went out hunting.
I went on a bit of a buying spree over the next couple
of years and acquired lots of different assets,
including stocks and even entire businesses.
I knew that I would be unable to time the exact bottom
of the market, so I invested every week.
This is called dollar cost averaging.
Cash is really king.
If you have cash,
you can snap up some amazing investments during this time.
That's why it's super important to keep a steady income
and supercharge it with a side hustle
during times like these,
as the more assets you can invest in,
the better you'll probably end up doing in the next phase.
The bottom line here is that while some choose to panic
sell and lose all their money,
others choose to double down and buy the dip,
which you've done correctly,
can make you a fortune.
I feel like I should also mention that some investors like
to short stocks, which is basically betting
that a stock will go down.
It's not something I personally do.
However, people like Michael Burry have been very
successful with his strategy.
If you want to know more about this,
then let me know in the comments.
I also recommend "The Big Short"
if you feel like watching an entertaining
and informative investing film.
Number three, the Phoenix phase.
In this final phase, the market begins to recover
and rebuild rising from the ashes of the crash.
It usually pushes above and beyond the last market highs.
I noticed that four years
after the 2008 crisis happened,
just after the London Olympics, things started to improve.
Businesses were hiring
and money was a bit easier to come by,
but even though people started to have cash again,
the mentality of not spending carried through for a while,
so it was another four years really
until everything was back to normal.
I've experienced a lot of crashes.
I'm talking Black Monday, the.com bubble,
the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2020 pandemic.
One of the key lessons I took from all of this
was that a bull market almost always follows a bear market,
and that the seeds of your fortune are often sown in times
of crisis and uncertainty.
As long as able to handle your level of risk
and you're buying into the stock market consistently
with a diversified portfolio,
then you stand a much better chance
than most at making some real money.
If you want me to walk you through exactly
how to start investing in the stock market,
then I'm gonna leave
that video right up there, but don't click on it just yet.
Make sure to subscribe if you want to grow your wealth.
Okay, I'll see you over there.
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