WAIT To Buy NEW Tesla Model 3 and Y | It's Coming Back
Summary
TLDRThe transcript covers the latest Tesla news. Key points include Tesla hitting a major California sales milestone with 1 in 8 cars sold being a Tesla; considerations around when to buy a Tesla given potential new models and tax credit eligibility; Tesla's $500M investment into their AI Dojo supercomputer system which Elon calls a 'long shot'; warnings from Elon about Chinese automakers like BYD poised to 'demolish most other car companies'; and updates on the upcoming Rivian R2 SUV and Acura ZDX pricing and specs as luxury EV competition heats up.
Takeaways
- 😲 Tesla captured 21.4% of all new car sales in California in 2023, with the Model 3 and Y as bestsellers in their classes
- 😎 With increasing EV options, Tesla's market share dropped from 71% to 60.5% in California, showing the rise of competition
- ⏳ It may be worth waiting for Tesla's next battery and model refreshes before buying, due to potential tax credit changes
- 🚀 Tesla plans to build a new LFP battery factory with CATL machines in Nevada, likely to help Model 3 qualify for tax credits
- 😕 Elon Musk called Tesla's Dojo supercomputer a 'long shot', though they just announced a $500M investment into it
- 😨 Elon Musk expects Chinese automakers like BYD to 'demolish most other car companies' globally without trade barriers
- 👍 BYD's cheapest EV in China costs just $11,400 currently, showing the extreme competition Tesla faces on affordability
- 🤔 Rivian may reveal its cheaper R2 electric SUV soon, expected to start around $40-50k and compete with the Model Y
- 🔋 Acura revealed its first EV the ZDX will start at $64,500 when it arrives later in 2023, featuring GM's Ultium platform
- 🚘 Porsche unveiled the electric Macan SUV with up to 630hp and 382mi range, competing directly with Tesla's Model X
Q & A
What milestone did Tesla recently hit for sales in California?
-Tesla captured 21.4% of all new car sales in California in 2023. Additionally, 1 out of every 8 cars sold in the state was a Tesla.
How much market share did Tesla lose in the California EV market over the past year?
-While Tesla's sales grew by 24.6% year-over-year, their share of the California EV market dropped from 71% to 60.5% due to greater availability of competing EVs.
Why might someone want to wait before buying the next Tesla Model Y?
-Tesla may soon upgrade the Model Y to match the new Model 3's features. Also, waiting could allow Tesla to qualify the Model 3 for tax credits again, making the Model Y effectively cheaper.
What is Tesla building at their Gigafactory in Nevada?
-Tesla is building a small LFP battery cell factory using CATL equipment. This could help them scale up 4680 production and potentially make LFP cells for vehicles like the Model 3.
What did Elon Musk say about the chances of success for Tesla's Dojo supercomputer project?
-Elon said he would think of Dojo as a 'long shot' that's not a high probability given the scale of investment required to be competitive in AI.
Why does Tesla see Chinese automakers as big competitors globally?
-Elon said Chinese automakers will likely 'demolish most other car companies' globally if trade barriers are not established due to their rapid growth and very affordable EVs.
When might Rivian reveal details about their upcoming R2 SUV?
-Rivian submitted a request to use public space in Laguna Beach for an R2 launch event in March, suggesting reveal details may come very soon.
How much will the base trim of Acura's first EV, the ZDX, cost?
-The base trim of the ZDX will start at $54,500 when it arrives later in 2023.
What is the expected EPA range for Porsche's new electric Macan SUV?
-Porsche has not released EPA range estimates yet, but the Macan has a WLTP estimated range up to 381 miles for the base trim.
How fast can Porsche's new electric Macan SUV charge?
-The Macan supports charging at up to 270kW, which can charge 10-80% in 21 minutes thanks to its 800V electrical architecture.
Outlines
📈 Tesla Hits Huge California Sales Milestone and Could Predict Future
Tesla has hit a milestone with 1 in 8 cars sold in California being a Tesla in 2023. Electric vehicles made up 21.4% of new car sales. The Model 3 and Model Y lead their classes in sales. As California continues to transition to EVs, we may see similar statistics emerge across the country, especially when Tesla releases their lower cost $25,000 car.
🤔 Deciding When to Buy a Tesla With Model 3 and Model Y Differences
The Model 3 will have major updates soon, raising questions around when the Model Y may see similar changes. However tax credits currently apply to the Model Y but not the Model 3 due to battery sourcing rules, creating odd pricing where the Model Y is cheaper. Tesla is expanding Gigafactory Nevada to improve Model 3 tax credit eligibility.
😲 Chinese Automakers Like BYD Posing Major Threats
Elon Musk sees Chinese automakers, especially BYD, as very competitive globally based on their growth, low prices and expansion plans. He expects them to significantly challenge other automakers worldwide unless trade barriers are erected. Tesla fell behind BYD for top global EV sales spot in 2022.
🔋 Tesla Investing Further into Dojo Supercomputer and AI
Despite delays and setbacks, Tesla plans a $500 million investment into a new Dojo supercomputer cluster to bolster their AI and self-driving tech. However, Elon noted it's a long shot with low probability of success, so they're diversifying chips for AI, using Nvidia and AMD hardware as well.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Tesla
💡California car sales
💡model 3
💡Tax credits
💡LFP batteries
💡Dojo supercomputer
💡BYD
💡Rivian R2
💡Acura ZDX
💡Porsche Macan EV
Highlights
Tesla hit a major sales milestone in California, capturing 21.4% of new car sales in the state
The Model 3 and Model Y are the top 2 bestselling vehicles in their classes in California
Tesla may build a new LFP battery factory with CATL machines in Nevada to help the Model 3 qualify for tax credits again
Tesla announced a $500 million investment to build a new supercomputer cluster for their AI training system Dojo in New York
Elon Musk said he considers Dojo a "long shot" given the low probability of success, so they're hedging bets by investing in Nvidia and AMD chips too
BYD and other Chinese automakers are Tesla's most competitive opponents right now with their rapid growth and affordable EVs
Tesla may need to introduce a $25,000 EV soon to compete with BYD's $11,400 Seagull EV
Rivian may reveal details about their upcoming affordable R2 SUV at an event in March
The Acura ZDX electric SUV will start at $54,500 when deliveries begin later this year
Porsche revealed their electric Macan SUV with up to 630 horsepower and 367 miles of range
The base Macan EV will start at $88,900 while the high performance Turbo trim starts at $153,500
The Macan EV will charge 10-80% in just 21 minutes and tow up to 4,000 pounds
Tesla captured 60.5% of California's BEV market in 2022, down from 71% due to more competition
Tesla needs to scale up qualifying battery production in the US to help vehicles qualify for tax credits
Tesla is recognizing the massive investment needed to stay competitive in AI, spending billions across hardware and programs
Transcripts
today we're getting into the latest
Tesla news including why you may want to
wait for Tesla's next battery Tesla's
warnings about byd Tesla dominating
popular markets and more so let's get
into
[Music]
it first up today Tesla has hit a huge
sales milestone in California that could
be a pretty big sign of the future to
come in 2023 one of every eight cars
sold in California was a Tesla and
electric cars made up 21.4% of all new
car sales the model 3 and Y are the two
bestselling vehicles in their respective
classes as well the model 3 sold
8278 units a 61% lead over the previous
California passenger car bestseller the
Toyota Camry the model Y is the
bestselling vehicle overall having
shipped
132,50 7% market share for the year year
followed by Tesla with 133% and Honda
with
9.7% interestingly both of those other
automakers have been very slow to
introduce EV options to the US market
still while Tesla's sales have grown by
24.6% in the last year the increasing
availability of competing electric
vehicles has had an impact on them
Tesla's overall share of the Bev Market
dropped from 71% to
60.5% as a result of Greater
availability of Tesla Alternatives this
is reflected in the growth of EV sales
coming from franchised car dealerships
Tesla offers a direct to Consumer sales
model that few other automakers have
adopted still a single automaker
especially one that has only been
selling cars for 15 years managing to
capture this much of a huge market like
California is a gigantic Milestone as
the state and Country at large continue
down the path of electrification we'll
probably start to see similar statistics
coming out of other places outside of
California I'm curious to see how these
numbers will change once Tesla releases
their upcoming affordable e as well with
a hopeful $225,000 price tag and
eligibility for a full $7,500 tax credit
that could put that car nearly $10,000
cheaper than the old California
bestseller the Toyota Camry with prices
like these purchasing an EV starts
looking less like just an interesting
option for many consumers and more like
a product that is impossible to ignore
next up today the biggest question when
it comes to Tesla is when to buy one
they don't refresh their cars on any
sort of normal basis like other
companies do in fact they change stuff
throughout the year whenever it makes
sense for them to do so on the assembly
line overall Al though the big changes
only come every few years the entirely
new model 3 is about to ship in the US
so for many this raises the question as
to when the new model y will come out
the model y was designed off of the
model 3 so at some point Tesla is going
to upgrade that car to match the current
model 3 with rear display better cabin
isolation nice materials and much more
the other side of this though is tax
credits for many the tax credit is a big
factor when buying an EV and this year
for eligible cars it is available at the
point of sale meaning you can get up to7
$500 off the price of a model Y at
checkout if you qualify for the credit
all model y trims currently qualify but
if you decide that that car is a bit too
large for you the model 3 does not
qualify for anything this creates a very
odd situation where someone who
qualifies could buy a rear wheel drive
model y for
$36,900 or a rear wheeel drive model 3
for
$38,988 190 for a longrange model y or4
$5,990 for a longrange model 3 the
reason the model 3 doesn't qualify here
and this situation is as odd as it is
has to do with battery sourcing rules
got stricter this year and Tesla's model
3 batteries no longer meet the
requirements of the bill among many
other EVS essentially the only way to
make it qualify is to Source Batteries
More locally but this process takes time
we've seen Tesla shift things around in
the past to help cars qualify but as
they continue scaling they're going to
need to scale up qualifying batteries
recently we've heard about Tesla diving
in on the true expansion of their main
battery Factory Giga Nevada about a year
ago they announced $3.6 billion in new
investment at that factory scaling up
4680 production as well as semi-
production in January of this year we
saw Tesla moving forward with initial
construction or Earth moving to start
this expansion that's exciting on its
own but now a new report says that Tesla
is going to build a new lfp battery cell
Factory with catl machines in Nevada
quote the automaker plans to buy
Machinery from catl as the battery maker
is known and install it in the city of
Sparks said the people who asked not to
be identified Tesla will have full
control of the facility and cover 100%
of the costs and catl Personnel will be
uninvolved other than helping to set up
the equipment they said reportedly this
will be a small facility and it will be
used initially to make lfp cells for
Tesla Mega packs but various reports
give different details on that right
there that could rule out this helping
with the model 3 qualifying for tax
credits but Tesla is very well known to
shift things around as they make sense
they say they don't want tax credits but
of course if their car is qualified they
will make them SE and allow customers to
take that tax credit the same happens
with batteries if 4680 cells take longer
to scale than expected of course they
will change plans and we've seen them
shift things over the years I think that
here it's quite likely this process goes
very well and they find that scaling up
lfp battery cell production with catl
equipment is extremely efficient in
Nevada whatever Tesla can scale
effectively they will continue doing
China currently makes the most lfp
batteries between byd and catl and they
each Supply Tesla even with 4680 cells
expanding at gig Texas lfp isn't
expected anytime soon even though this
chemistry is great and more affordable
Elon Musk has even talked about Tesla
focusing on these cells in the future in
a very short amount of time this could
allow Tesla to expand Beyond Mega packs
and make lfp cells for the model 3 to
once again help it qualify as long as
they can Source the minerals and
materials to qualify then this could
solve that issue for them allowing the
model 3 to be purchased for as low as
many customers further into the future
as well they may find this useful for
their next gen vehicle but time will
tell what approach they will be taking
there the cybertruck is the true 4680
experiment and they will see what is
most effective they always want to be at
the Forefront of new technology but the
key is that they want it to be scalable
in the real world soon hopefully this is
the initial step to make the model 3
qualify for the tax credit once again if
you're not in a rush at all and the tax
credit is very important to you then
this could be worth the wait but battery
scaling does take a lot of time I'd
imagine it could more likely that Tesla
figures out another way to make the
model 3 qualify even before they make us
lfp battery cells but time will tell
next up today Tesla has just announced a
huge new investment into their Dojo
supercomputer system they will be
building a new $500 million
supercomputer cluster at their Factory
in Buffalo New York Dojo is the
groundbreaking supercomputer that Tesla
completely designed from scratch to help
train their AI products Dojo has had
some pretty big setbacks since it was
first announced the project has faced a
number of delays but Tesla was able to
open their first Dojo cluster last year
in recent months some of the program's
leadership has been let go from the
project raising concerns about how well
it's actually going behind the scenes
during their latest earnings call Elon
Musk made a comment that certainly puts
the whole project into a bit of
perspective he said I would think of
Dojo as a long shot it's a long shot
worth taking because the payoff is
potentially very high but it's not
something that is a high probability
given how much this project was
anticipated to significantly boost
Tesla's AI output that is definitely a
bit disappointing to hear
however it is definitely reasonable that
when working on a technology as
groundbreaking and Cutting Edge as their
AI products you may want to temper
people's expectations a bit especially
when you're Elon with a history of doing
the opposite instead Tesla is working on
approaching their supercomputer goals
from multiple angles while they boasted
that their Dojo chips would be able to
outperform other competitors they're
still investing heavily in chips from
those companies Tesla is spending
heavily on Nvidia AI processors to
continue building their traditional
supercomputer clusters and will also be
adding AMD chips to to their Hardware
Elon added that quote the table Stakes
for being competitive in AI are at least
several billion dollars per year at this
point while Tesla is spending a lot on
their Dojo project in order to remain at
the Forefront of the AI industry they
recognize the need to spend in more than
just one area I hope that Dojo is able
to deliver on Tesla's goals because it
would be such a major help to their AI
powered projects like FSD and Optimus
regardless between their investments in
third party and proprietary Tech Tesla
is working very hard to keep their lead
in AI technology next up today Chinese
automakers like byd are making huge
splashes across the globe and their
success has left Tesla a little scared
or at least realistic for the future
last year in Q4 was the first time that
Tesla fell from the leading spot in
global EV sales with byd now in first
place the Chinese automaker has made
huge gains in both China and Europe
expecting to open a new Factory in
Hungary very soon along with other new
automakers byd is massively expanding
their worldwide Presence by offering
cheap electric cars that other companies
are struggling to keep up with Tesla and
other automakers have been cutting
prices in Europe and China to stay
competitive in those markets Elon Musk
told analysts that the automakers out of
China are the most competitive car
companies in the world and that he
expects them to do very well across the
world as a result of their huge and
sudden growth the EU has considered
raising tariffs on Chinese EVS to
protect local production on the topic
Elon said quote frankly I think if there
are not trade barriers established they
will pretty much demolish most other car
companies in the world I would imagine
in a sense he still sees Tesla is a
Survivor here as they've been competing
directly in China and he sees their next
car as revolutionary in multiple aspects
but for other automakers it could be a
very big deal Tesla is at the top of EV
manufacturing and to be so blunt about
the risks posed by byd and others is
very telling about their Rising
structure in the market byd has been
having great success with their lineup
of affordable EVS that so far other
automakers have been unable to compete
with Tesla is currently working on their
next gen affordable EV but we don't have
official word on when that car will be
coming as it stands right now byd's
cheapest vehicle the seagull is
available out of China for about $11,400
a price that is almost unfathomable to
beat even for the specs of delivers for
2023 Tesla originally projected a 50%
growth rate that they fell short of by
12% a 38% increase in car deliveries is
still very impressive but the growth in
other companies are definitely eating
into Tesla's potential sales if Chinese
automakers continue their current level
of growth and don't face increased trade
barriers they really could take the EV
World by storm they already faced some
pretty substantial tariffs in the US
that have prevented them from getting a
foothold here but if they were to change
it would immediately create some nearly
unbeatable opponents for us automakers
since byid is currently working on their
European Factory it could be difficult
for the EU to implement any major trade
restrictions on that company if Tesla
wants to remain competitive price Cuts
likely won't be enough long term they're
going to need to introduce this $225,000
EV to be a true affordable alternative
to the cheaper Chinese cars and
ultimately I'm excited to see that
happen competition is great for
consumers and while we are slowly
beginning to see automakers in the US
take on Tesla the real competition is
coming from China with Tesla being a
global company that means we see the
effects here as well part of me wonders
if the new model 3 would have even seen
a refresh in the US if it weren't
necessary for the Chinese market where
they designed it and introduced it first
we'll see how this all develops but Elon
tends to have a decent hold on what the
future looks like in this space last up
today some updates from other automakers
rivan has been teasing their long-
awaited R2 SUV for some time now and we
may finally get word on when that
vehicle is being introduced rivan is a
luxury EV maker that currently has two
vehicles on the market the r1t pickup
truck and r1s 3 row SUV the company
makes great vehicles that are among the
best Tesla competitors out there but so
far they have struggled to reach
profitability following the Tesla
business model they proved their
viability with their more expensive
models and are now branching out into
more affordable options that's where the
R2 comes in it is rivian's next gen
electric SUV that is currently
speculated to cost around $4 $3,000 to
start that will put it in line to
compete directly with the model y
especially if they meet the requirements
for the full $7,500 tax credit which
they say this car is being designed to
meet so far we've only seen hints of
this truck but now some leaked documents
suggest that it will be coming very soon
rivan submitted a request to the lagona
beach city council to use some public
space for the R2 launch event in March
on top of that in a recent rivan patent
application it looks like we got our
first sketch of that car it looks like
the exact shape we expect a smaller
version of the r1s and the lights have a
similar rivan feel but are noticeably
smaller if this car can deliver rivan's
great EV experience but in a more
affordable form factor that could be a
huge game changer for the industry for
rivan hopefully an inexpensive Mass
Market C is what is able to push them
into profitability I can't wait to find
out more details about the R2 as we
learn more and see what happens at this
event in March Acura the luxury
subdivision of Honda has just revealed
the prices of their upcoming z4x the
Brand's first fully electric vehicle in
the US coming later this spring the bass
trim of the zd4 4X will start at $64,500
this electric SUV is powered by GM's
ultium platform which is also the basis
for this car's luxury competitor the
Cadillac lric when they first announced
this vehicle Acura estimated it would
start around $660,000 so while its
starting price is a bit higher it does
offer plenty of luxury features this car
will feature a unique Google operating
system a bong and olon audio system as
well as Apple carplay and Android auto
coming standard the Dual Motor
Performance upgrade will start at
$73,500
and will output 500 horsepower have
adjustable air suspension performance-
tuned dampers and multiple driving modes
for maximum performance the vehicle will
also feature three distinct charging
packages depending on your needs they
will offer different packages of home
and mobile chargers as well as
installation credits and Evo charge
credits it features 190 KW DC fast
charging that can add 81 m in 10 minutes
via CCS although the car will also come
with a complimentary nacs adapter it is
currently expected to have a range up to
325 Mi EP
Acura and its parent company Honda have
been very slow to the EV game so I'm
interested to see how well this car
performs when it arrives later this year
over at Porsche they have finally fully
unveiled their all electric maon SUV and
it's pretty impressive this base trim
will have a max range up to 381 mil of
wltp range and can output over 400
horsepower the turbo trim will get up to
630 horsepower and can go 0 to 60 in 3.3
seconds in exchange for that performance
the range will reduce slightly down to
367 Mi but again keep in mind that's
wltp range the base trim will Top out at
136 mph while the turbo will reach 161
mph this new SUV will be the first
vehicle to debut on the 800 volt PPE
platform that they co-developed with
Audi it will support fast charging up to
27 KW which will charge its 100 KW
battery from 10 to 80% in 21 minutes the
interior is designed for driver comfort
with three available screens including
an instrument cluster and an additional
heads up display in addition to its
style and performance it also features a
roomy cargo area and a towing capacity
up to 4,000 lb all of those features
round this vehicle out to be a very
capable and versatile sport SUV the base
trim will start at
$8,800 while the turbo will bump it up
to
$15,300 essentially at this pricing it's
competing with the model X this car
offers the same quality traditionally
offered by the Porsche brand and fans
will surely love the continued quality
offered by a legacy automaker that's all
the latest Tesla news for today so in
the meantime if you want to see the
latest for Tesla hacks and a trotor
model 3 you can check out that video
linked up here or in the description
below thanks so much for watching and
I'll see you on the next one
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