Sam Altmans UBI Study Is DONE! The Data is In...
Summary
TLDRTech leaders like Sam Altman and Elon Musk advocate for Universal Basic Income (UBI) as technology automates jobs. A 2022 study showed UBI recipients spent on essentials, not vices, and worked slightly less, with no negative impact on the economy. Altman warns that without adapting public policy, most people could be worse off due to AI-driven unemployment, suggesting UBI as a necessary policy to support those affected by technological advancements.
Takeaways
- 🤖 Tech leaders like Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Jack Dorsey support Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a solution to job displacement caused by automation.
- 🔮 Altman predicted in 2016 that new technology would eliminate traditional jobs and create wealth, leading to a national-scale implementation of UBI in the future.
- 📚 Open research pilot studies in Illinois and Texas provided low-income participants with a monthly UBI of $1,000, with a control group receiving $50, to study the effects of UBI.
- 🏠 Beneficiaries of the UBI pilot study used the funds for essentials like food, rent, and transportation, debunking the myth that UBI would be spent on vices.
- 💰 The study showed that UBI recipients experienced reduced stress and increased savings, highlighting the potential benefits of UBI on personal well-being.
- 📉 Labor participation declined by 2%, which equates to about eight fewer workers annually, suggesting that some individuals chose to work less with the financial security of UBI.
- 🤔 The Vox article discussed the potential confusion in interpreting the data from UBI studies, emphasizing that individual outcomes can vary widely.
- 💡 The case for UBI should be insulated from the volatility of AI and not solely based on the fear of AI-driven unemployment, according to the Vox article.
- 🌐 Altman and other tech figures, including AI pioneer Jeffrey Hinton, believe that AI will cause technological unemployment and that UBI will be necessary.
- 🚫 The argument against tying UBI to rapid AI progress is that if AI does not lead to significant job loss, support for UBI could wane.
- 🇩🇪 Germany's laws requiring companies to notify work councils about AI adoption is an example of proactive policy management in the face of technological change.
Q & A
What is Sam Altman's view on Universal Basic Income (UBI) and its relation to technological advancements?
-Sam Altman believes that as new technology continues to eliminate traditional jobs and massive new wealth gets created, some version of UBI will likely be implemented at a national scale in the future.
What was the purpose of the open research pilot study on UBI that began in 2020?
-The study aimed to observe the effects of providing low-income participants from various areas with a monthly stipend of $1,000, and to understand how unconditional payments might impact individuals in the future with increased automation.
What were the average household incomes of the participants in the UBI study?
-On average, the household incomes of the participants were under $29,000, with all beneficiaries at or under 300% of the federal poverty line.
How long was the UBI study mentioned in the script, and why is its length significant?
-The study was conducted over three years, making it one of the longest UBI studies, which is significant for understanding long-term effects of UBI on individuals and society.
What did the researchers find regarding how participants used the UBI funds?
-The researchers found that participants used the funds to buy essentials like food, rent, and transportation, rather than vices, debunking the myth that UBI recipients would spend the money recklessly.
How did the UBI study impact labor participation among the participants?
-Labor participation declined by 2%, which equates to about eight fewer workers annually. However, this reduction was not uniform and varied among individuals based on their personal circumstances.
What is the argument made by the Vox article regarding the case for basic income and AI?
-The Vox article suggests that the case for basic income should not be solely based on the fear of rapid AI progress, as it could make the support for UBI more vulnerable if AI does not lead to significant job displacement.
What is the potential risk of linking the necessity of UBI to the progress of AI, according to the script?
-The risk is that if AI does not cause a 'Great Wave' of unemployment as feared, the support for UBI might fall, as it would be seen as less necessary.
What is the role of work councils in Germany regarding the adoption of AI and other new technologies?
-In Germany, companies are required by law to notify their work councils about AI and other new technologies they plan to adopt. Work councils are management committees that discuss various aspects of work, including the effects of AI.
What tool did the speaker create to help individuals understand the impact of AI on different jobs?
-The speaker created a database listing over 170 different jobs that are impacted by AI, including the industry, susceptibility to AI, the AI tools affecting it, and links to those tools.
What is the speaker's stance on the necessity of UBI in the face of increasing AI capabilities?
-The speaker believes that as technology becomes more capable, there will be a need for programs to help those affected by AI, suggesting that UBI might be one such program.
Outlines
🤖 Automation and the Future of UBI
This paragraph discusses the potential impact of technology, particularly automation, on traditional jobs and the role of Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a solution. Tech leaders like Sam Alman, Elon Musk, and Jack Dorsey are noted as proponents of UBI. Sam Alman's 2016 statement is highlighted, predicting a future where technology eliminates jobs and creates wealth, necessitating UBI. The Open Research pilot study in Illinois and Texas, where low-income participants received $1,000 a month, is mentioned as one of the longest UBI studies. The study's results show that participants used the funds for essentials like food, rent, and transportation, rather than vices, contradicting common misconceptions about UBI. The study also found a slight decrease in labor participation, but the overall effect was mixed, with some individuals finding better work and others reducing work hours for personal reasons.
💼 Economic Disparity and the Need for Basic Income
This paragraph delves into the economic disparity created by rapid technological advancements, particularly AI, and the potential need for UBI. It emphasizes that discussions about UBI should not be solely based on the fear of AI-driven unemployment but should be considered as a necessary policy to address poverty and inequality. The paragraph references a Vox article that argues for decoupling the case for UBI from the volatility of AI, suggesting that UBI should be implemented regardless of AI's impact. The article also mentions that despite tech funding, AI is not mentioned in UBI studies, indicating a broader need for UBI beyond just AI. The paragraph concludes by discussing the potential effects of AI on jobs and the economy, and the importance of preparing for these changes through policies like UBI. It also mentions a database created by the speaker that lists over 170 jobs impacted by AI, providing a resource for understanding the current state of AI's impact on the workforce.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Universal Basic Income (UBI)
💡Automation
💡Tech Leaders
💡Pilot Study
💡Federal Poverty Line
💡Stress Levels
💡Labor Participation
💡AI Bubbles
💡Post-AGI Economics
💡Work Councils
Highlights
Tech leaders like Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey support Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a solution to job displacement caused by automation.
Sam Altman's 2016 statement predicts the necessity of UBI on a national scale due to job elimination and wealth creation by new technology.
A study from open research began in 2020, providing $1,000 a month to low-income participants, with a control group receiving $50 for participation.
The study is one of the longest UBI studies conducted, important for understanding the long-term effects of UBI on society.
Participants used UBI funds for essentials like food, rent, and transportation, debunking myths about spending on vices.
UBI recipients experienced reduced stress levels and increased savings, contrary to fears of reckless spending.
Labor participation declined by 2%, but this varied as individuals found better work or chose to spend more time with family.
Vox news commentary suggests that the data from UBI studies can be misinterpreted, emphasizing the need for careful analysis.
Altman warns in 2021 that without policy adaptation, most people will end up worse off due to AI and automation.
Major tech figures, including Elon Musk and Jeffrey Hinton, believe AI will cause technological unemployment, making UBI necessary.
The case for UBI should not be solely based on fears of rapid AI progress, as it could be vulnerable if AI does not lead to mass unemployment.
Germany has laws requiring companies to inform work councils about AI adoption, indicating proactive management of AI's impact on jobs.
A database of over 170 jobs impacted by AI has been created to help individuals understand and prepare for the effects of automation.
The database includes industry, susceptibility to AI, affected AI tools, and provides links to these tools for further exploration.
The creation of the database aims to provide practical support for individuals to navigate the changing job landscape due to AI.
The video encourages viewers to join the post-AGI preparedness community for daily updates on AI's impact on various jobs.
The video concludes by inviting viewers to share their thoughts on UBI and its potential role in a future shaped by AI and automation.
Transcripts
so Sam Alman is of course among several
Tech leaders like Elon Musk Jack dorsy
who have been proponent of Ubi as a
potential antidote to the ne to the
negative effects of Technology
automating people's occupations now we
actually do have a statement from Sam
mman in 2016 and he wrote something that
still Echoes true today he said I'm
fairly confident that it's some point in
the future as new technology continues
to eliminate traditional jobs and
massive New Wealth gets created we're
going to see some version of this at a
national scale so essentially what he's
stating there is that yes while these
initial experiments with you know maybe
just a 100 people or a thousand people
in these small select environments we're
most likely going to have to see some
level of this in the future as
technology continues to automate a way
traditional role now we do actually have
the data from the study from open
research and the open research pilot
actually began in 202 when a, low-income
participants from rural suburban and
urban areas in Illinois and Texas
started receiving $1,000 a month 2,000
others also received $50 a month to
participate in the study as a control
group and every beneficiary was at or
under 300% of the federal poverty line
but on average their household incomes
were under
$29,000 so essentially what we can see
here is the fact that we we have a study
that was conducted with just a thousand
people but what most people don't
understand about this study is that this
study was actually one of the longest
Ubi studies conducted I think it
actually is the longest Ubi study
conducted which is important for the
research because what people actually
want to do is they actually want to
realize exactly how in the future once
automation is here once many roles do
disappear what humans are actually going
to do and what the kind of effect are of
giving people unconditional payments now
traditionally some of the things that
most people did actually realize were
the things like you know reduced stress
levels and increasing levels of your
savings and I think some of the results
here are also pretty interesting but
they also actually show us exactly what
we suspected so essentially the
researchers first set of results are
based on three years of payments and
they found that participants use the
funds to buy Essentials like food rent
and transportation
and not vices the reason I've
highlighted that part is because one of
the things that some people who are anti
Ubi essentially just State and this is
really incorrectly they state that many
people who actually are going to be
receiving those payments are actually
just going to spend them on drugs and
other things that they don't need now of
course this is completely false this is
something that just isn't true but this
is something that people have said and I
think time and time again what we're
seeing from these studies is that the
data shows us that when people are in
positions where they don't have enough
money as soon as they start to get some
Universal basic income they do not spend
that money recklessly that is something
that most people do need to take into
account when thinking about this and of
course this is good for the space
because it means that in the future
governments are more likely to be
proponents of this policy because it
shows that it has been effective now
some other things that they spoke about
was that this study actually showed the
recipient spent more on housing food and
carent expenses but they worked slightly
less now labor participation did decline
by 2% equating to about eight fewer
workers annually and I know that some
people did think that okay some people
did stop working but there was actually
also this by Vox news where they
actually spoke about how look the data
can sometimes be confusing and sometimes
it might not make sense but that doesn't
mean that the data is false so what we
have here is you can see that it says
that while one person might wind up
finding better work and taking on more
hours thanks to the cash while another
person might scale back their hours to
spend more time with their kids both
cases can be good outcomes to the
individuals involved but as an average
treatment effect where one person worked
a lot more and another person worked a
lot less it kind of all averages out
that's why while some people just look
at it and think you know all these
people are going to become lazy and
dependent on that that's often usually
not what we see from these studies and
time and time again this is what the
data is showing now one of the
interesting things that I actually did
see was from this Vox article where they
actually spoke about how that we should
insulate the case for basic income from
any potential AI Bubbles and I think
this is an interesting concept because
it dives into the topic of wi Society
without Automation and it kind of you
know I wouldn't say it's an attack on
capitalism but it kind of poses the
question that that basically is you know
is capitalism to extreme considering the
fact that we now have technology which
has sort of put capitalism sort of this
hyperdrive reality where you've got
people that are extremely rich with
billions and billions of dollars and you
got people that literally don't have any
money at all so you can see right here
it says despite receiving funding from
much of the tech world where the talk of
AI is everywhere none of the papers
published from the unconditional income
study mentioned AI at all and that's a
good thing because as I mentioned
earlier we should insulate the case for
basic income from the volatility and the
unknowns of AI basically what I think
they're saying here is that look AI is a
technology that yes it might automate
people away but I think that we should
have basic income anyways that's
basically what the article is saying
because it's stating that look we
shouldn't wait for AI to be something
that automates everyone before we start
to realize that look maybe just maybe we
might need some kind of basic income to
help those who are on the poverty line
which I think is a rather interesting
comment and I'd love to know your
thoughts down below and you can see here
that this article you know dives into
some increasingly worrying things of
course Alman wrote in 2021 one that if
public policy doesn't adapt accordingly
most people will end up worse off than
they are today this is something that he
wrote in 2021 it's going to be part of a
longer video that I talk about but this
is you know quite true if most people as
they are now you know most people are
going to be worse off because there's
going to be less demand for certain jobs
and there's going to be more AI in the
world which could potentially take those
jobs whilst yes that doesn't cover the
entire economic landscape and how the
economy works that is just the basis of
it and of course it says here for years
Alman has been publicly worrying about
that basic income will become necessary
as AI eliminates traditional jobs while
creating huge stockpiles of cash held by
the few now of course it says here Alman
is not alone many major figures in the
tech World from Elon Musk to The
Godfather of AI to The Godfather of AI
Jeffrey Hinton believe that AI will
Usher a wave of technological
unemployment which is quite terrifying
to say the least and that basic income
will be necessary to keep us all afloat
and the article finishes by state that
you know that this person is quite
conflicted and I think this one right
here is a really important point they
say that but hitching the case for basic
income to the fears of Rapid AI progress
makes it far more vulnerable than it
needs to be if there's no Great Wave of
AI driven unemployment if the bubble of
AI actually bursts and turned out to be
hardly different than any other cycle of
innovation and technological
unemployment in the past the support for
basic income would fall too so basically
saying that look if a turns out to be
this hyp bubble that it might be then it
looks like we're not truly going to get
the support for basic income that you so
desperately need now I do think that
this is a rather important thing to talk
about because of course there does need
to be support for this but I do think
that as technology becomes increasingly
more capable there will certainly be
some programs to help those who have
been affected by AI one of the things
that I do wonder if it's going to become
more popular is the fact that Germany
actually has laws requiring companies to
notify their Works counsels about Ai and
other new technologies that they're
planning to adopt most German companies
have work councils which are work and
management committees that discuss
everything from vacation schedules to
the pace of work and the effects of AI
so it seems that certain societies and
certain policies can affect how this
transformative period is actively
managed now because there has been so
many different AI tools released and
because there are so many different jobs
that are going to be impacted by AI I
created this database of over currently
170 different jobs that are going to be
impacted by Ai and I left a link to the
actual tool that is going to impact that
career I created this for my post AGI
economics Community I update this every
single day every time I see an actually
effective tool that you can use in
certain industries and there are just so
many that I think this is something that
could genuinely help you so if you feel
like this is something that you want to
see and something that could help you
out don't forget to check this out by
clicking the link below and joining the
post AGI preparedness Community this is
pretty useful because it allows you to
see all of the different areas of the
economy SL jobs that are currently being
affected by different AI tools this
isn't really speculative I wanted it to
be based on different tools that are
actually affecting work today so it's
got the industry it's got susceptibility
to AI all of the AI tools that actually
affect it and of course the notes and of
course the link to the tools and if you
did enjoy today's video hopefully you
did find some value in this and let me
know your thoughts about Ubbi and the
future to come and I'll see you guys in
the next video
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