How will Israel's attack on Doha affect the US and Gulf states? | Inside Story

Summary

Israel's airstrike on Qatar, targeting Hamas officials but hitting civilians instead, has sparked widespread international condemnation and raised serious questions about US involvement, given Qatar hosts the largest US military base in the Middle East. Gulf states, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are convening emergency summits to discuss collective security and potential deterrence strategies. Experts highlight Israel's assertive regional posture, the limitations of US influence, and the need for Gulf states to diversify military capabilities. The strike not only undermines ceasefire negotiations in Gaza but also intensifies discussions on Palestinian statehood and the two-state solution at the UN, reshaping regional security dynamics.

Takeaways

• 🌍 Israel conducted an airstrike on Qatar targeting Hamas officials, killing six civilians instead, causing international condemnation.
• 🕌 Gulf states, including Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, are holding emergency summits to discuss regional security and collective action.
• 🛡️ Gulf countries are considering diversifying their military capabilities, including air defenses and radar systems, to better deter future attacks.
• 🇺🇸 The Trump administration condemned the attack but supported Israel’s objective to target Hamas, revealing tensions in US credibility as a security guarantor.
• ⚠️ Experts highlight that the US is limited in restraining Israel due to domestic political influence, particularly the Israel lobby in Congress.
• 💬 Israel’s strike on Qatar is seen as both operational (targeting Hamas) and symbolic, sending a message of power and deterrence across the Middle East.
• 🌐 Internationally, over 140 countries supported a UN declaration favoring tangible steps toward a two-state solution, while the US and Israel opposed it.
• 🤝 Gulf states face the challenge of balancing reliance on the US with exploring other strategic partnerships and military cooperation within the region.
• 🚫 China is not seen as a replacement for the US in providing regional security, although Gulf states may acquire military technology from China and Korea.
• 📉 Israel’s actions risk isolating the US globally and undermining its influence in the Middle East, raising concerns among Gulf allies about long-term security guarantees.
• 🔄 Gulf states are pursuing a dual approach: maintaining ties with the US while strengthening internal regional defense cooperation to manage potential future threats.

Q & A

What was the immediate international reaction to Israel's attack on Qatar?

The attack on Qatar was widely condemned internationally, including by the UN Security Council. Gulf States expressed anger, and there were calls for de-escalation, with the US joining the condemnation without explicitly blaming Israel.

Why was Qatar targeted in the Israeli airstrike?

Israel targeted Qatar to strike senior Hamas officials who were meeting there to discuss a US-mediated ceasefire in Gaza. The strike also sent a message to the region about Israel’s ability to act unilaterally, even against US allies.

How did US President Trump respond to the attack?

President Trump stated he was not happy about the strike but emphasized that eliminating Hamas was a legitimate goal. The US joined other Security Council members in condemning the attack without explicitly criticizing Israel.

What are the potential actions Gulf States might take in response to the attack?

Gulf States could pursue collective action, such as enhancing regional security cooperation, diversifying military capabilities, strengthening air defenses, and potentially suspending diplomatic relations with Israel to signal deterrence.

How did experts assess the US role in deterring Israel?

Experts argued the US lacks the ability or political will to restrain Israel due to domestic influence from the Israel lobby. This has led to questions about US credibility and the reliability of its security guarantees to Gulf allies.

What long-term strategies did Gulf States consider to enhance their security?

Gulf States are considering diversifying military procurement from countries like China and South Korea, boosting air defenses and radar systems, and enhancing intra-GCC coordination to create a more effective deterrent against potential future attacks.

What message was Israel sending to the region through this attack?

Israel aimed to demonstrate its military dominance, discourage opposition, and signal that it can strike anywhere, even against US allies, without facing immediate consequences. This reflects a broader strategy of regional hegemony.

Could Gulf States realistically turn to China for regional security?

Experts noted that while Gulf States could purchase military equipment from China, they are unlikely to replace the US as a security guarantor. China is not willing to act as a full security provider in the region.

How did the attack affect US-Gulf relations?

The attack strained US credibility in the region, raising concerns among Gulf States about the reliability of the US security umbrella. Gulf countries are increasingly cautious and may seek ways to hedge their security independently.

What global diplomatic implications arose from the attack and Israel's actions?

Israel’s actions, and the US alignment with them, risk isolating the US diplomatically, as evidenced by a UN vote where over 140 countries supported a two-state solution while the US and Israel opposed it. This highlights growing international criticism.

What role did Qatar play in mediating the Gaza ceasefire?

Qatar, along with the US and Egypt, has been mediating indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas, facilitating the release of captives and humanitarian aid to Gaza, positioning itself as a key regional mediator despite the attack on its territory.

What is the risk of Israel’s continued military actions for the broader Middle East?

Continued Israeli military actions without restraint could destabilize the region, provoke further conflicts, and compel Gulf States to independently enhance their security. It also undermines US influence and may increase regional alignment against Israel.