TESLA Stock - Did Bulls Save TSLA?

Summary

In this Tesla stock update, the speaker analyzes the stock’s recent performance and technical indicators. They discuss the market's potential volatility due to upcoming economic data releases (CPI, PPI, jobless claims) and the key support levels for Tesla, including 313 and potential pullbacks to 305 or 295. The speaker highlights recent bullish signs such as the break of a key resistance level and the reclaiming of exponential moving averages. However, caution is advised as the overall market conditions remain uncertain, with the possibility of a large breakout either up to 340 or down to 240 in the long term.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla stock closed the day with a 1% increase, finishing just shy of $317 per share, but there is uncertainty about whether this marks the return of the bulls or a bull trap.
• 📊 There are major upcoming economic events, such as CPI, PPI, and jobless claims, which could introduce significant market volatility, impacting Tesla's price in the short term.
• 📈 The breaking of key resistance levels and the setting of higher highs and higher lows indicates bullish potential, although a short-term pullback is possible.
• 🧮 The Fibonacci levels suggest potential support around $305, with a worst-case scenario of $295, which could be a good buying opportunity if a pullback occurs.
• 🔋 The stock is currently testing the exponential moving averages (EMAs), with the bulls attempting to reclaim control, but there are concerns about the potential for a bearish trend.
• ⚠️ The analysis warns against getting caught in the FOMO (fear of missing out) mindset, as previous instances of overenthusiasm about Tesla stock not meeting expectations have occurred multiple times over the past four years.
• 🚀 The key short-term level to watch is $313. If Tesla holds this level, the bulls are in control and could push the stock higher, possibly reaching $330 or even $340.
• 💡 A long-legged doji candle printed today suggests indecision in the market, with a 50/50 chance of bullish continuation, influenced by the upcoming economic reports.
• 🔄 The overall market sentiment is contained within a large pennant formation, with the price expected to oscillate between the upper and lower bounds until a breakout occurs, which could happen after earnings.
• 🛑 Despite some bullish signals, caution is advised as the stochastic and MACD indicators have yet to show a strong bullish trend, which will be crucial for determining whether momentum will continue upward.

Q & A

What is the current sentiment around Tesla stock according to the video?

The current sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Tesla's stock has seen a 1% gain, and the bulls seem to be attempting a comeback, but there's a concern about whether this is a genuine recovery or just a short-term 'bull trap.'

What are the key upcoming market events that could affect Tesla's stock price?

The key upcoming events include CPI (Consumer Price Index) on Tuesday, PPI (Producer Price Index) on Wednesday, and jobless claims on Thursday. These events could lead to significant volatility and potential market gaps.

What technical pattern is Tesla stock currently showing?

Tesla is currently exhibiting a rising wedge pattern, which suggests that the stock has been consolidating in an upward channel. However, the stock has recently fallen out of this pattern, and it's crucial to observe if it will continue lower or regain momentum.

What key level should investors watch for short-term price movements in Tesla?

Investors should keep an eye on the $313 level. If Tesla's price breaks below this level, it could trigger a pullback to around $305, with the worst-case scenario being a drop to $295.

What is the significance of breaking key highs in Tesla's recent price action?

Breaking key highs is a positive sign for the bulls, indicating that the stock may be setting higher highs and establishing an uptrend. Even though there was a rejection after breaking these highs, it suggests that the bulls are trying to reclaim control.

How do the Fibonacci levels play into Tesla's potential price movement?

Fibonacci levels are being used to identify potential pullback levels for Tesla. Key levels to watch include around $305, with a worst-case scenario of $295. If Tesla experiences a pullback, these Fibonacci levels could act as support, setting the stage for a higher low and a potential continuation upwards.

What does the video suggest about the market's long-term outlook for Tesla?

The long-term outlook for Tesla remains uncertain, with a focus on the large pennant pattern the stock is currently in. The stock could either break out to the upside toward $400 or drop toward $240. This consolidation phase could last a while before a breakout happens, potentially after earnings.

What cautionary advice does the video give about buying Tesla stock?

The video cautions against FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and emphasizes the importance of waiting for confirmation before buying. While people have been expecting Tesla to 'moon' to $600 for years, history suggests that it's better to wait for a solid trend rather than chasing every rally.

How are the moving averages and technical indicators impacting Tesla's price action?

Tesla is reclaiming key moving averages, which is a positive sign for the bulls. However, the video stresses that one candle does not define a trend, and the market's direction will depend on how the stock behaves after upcoming data releases. Key indicators like the MACD and stochastic are also being watched for bullish signals.

What is the risk versus reward setup for Tesla's potential price movements?

The risk/reward setup is favorable for a bullish move, especially if Tesla holds the $305 level. A potential move to the upper end of the pennant pattern could target $330-$340, offering a good reward relative to the risk of a pullback to $295 or lower.