TESLA Stock - Is TSLA Bearish Now?

Summary

In this Tesla stock update, the analyst provides an in-depth look at Tesla’s recent performance, emphasizing the stock’s current position within an upward trend channel. Despite recent market challenges, the overall pattern remains bullish, with key support levels identified. The analysis includes technical aspects like moving averages and RSI, alongside market behavior and recent options flow. The analyst foresees potential short-term declines but maintains a long-term bullish outlook, particularly if key support levels hold. Additionally, the video highlights market sentiment and key trading signals, offering insights into potential future movements for Tesla.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla stock closed down 2.7% on the day, at $334.60, following broader market weakness due to a bond auction.
• 😀 Despite short-term pullbacks, Tesla is still within a rising channel on the daily chart, indicating a potential for continued bullish movement if it holds its current support levels.
• 😀 A key pivot point for Tesla's stock is around the $325-$295 range, which could act as important support in case of a further decline.
• 😀 Even if Tesla falls out of the rising channel, the structure of the stock remains bullish on the daily chart as long as it holds critical levels.
• 😀 The recent price movement shows signs of distribution, with bearish signals emerging on the shorter time frames, potentially signaling further downside in the near term.
• 😀 Resistance turned support in the $335-$337 zone, confirming a bearish short-term trend unless this level can be broken again.
• 😀 The stock has entered a distribution phase, characterized by a massive uptrend followed by a downward movement, which could lead to further consolidation or downside.
• 😀 The market bias and exponential moving averages indicate that Tesla is overextended, suggesting the price may face difficulty in sustaining higher levels in the immediate future.
• 😀 The next major support level for Tesla is around the $325 mark, where a potential sharp sell-off could occur, followed by a short-term bounce back into the low $330s.
• 😀 Options flow shows significant puts being traded at $335-$325, indicating some market hesitation, though long-term LEAPS at $350 for January 2026 suggest optimism for Tesla's future.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video?

The video provides an update on Tesla stock, offering a technical analysis of its current trends, market behavior, and predictions for the near future.

What is the current status of Tesla's stock in terms of daily movement?

Tesla stock closed down 2.7% for the day, finishing at $334.60. This decline was influenced by the bond auction, which caused a broader market pullback.

Why is the 8 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) important for Tesla stock?

The 8 EMA is important because Tesla's stock is currently right at this level. The EMA indicates a potential support zone, and staying above it suggests that the stock could remain bullish, while falling below it would signal a shift in trend.

What is the significance of Tesla's rising channel in its technical analysis?

The rising channel represents an ongoing uptrend in Tesla's stock price. As long as the price remains within this channel, it is considered bullish. A drop below the channel could change the outlook to bearish, but that has not happened yet.

What would it mean for Tesla if it falls out of the rising channel?

If Tesla's stock falls out of the rising channel, it would likely indicate a loss of the previous upward momentum. However, the overall structure of the stock could still be bullish if it maintains higher lows and higher highs.

What are the key support levels mentioned for Tesla stock?

Key support levels for Tesla include the $325 region, where a significant level of support is expected. The 21 EMA and the bottom of the rising channel also represent crucial areas where support could emerge.

What is the 'WOV distribution' mentioned in the video?

The WOV (Wide Open Volume) distribution refers to a pattern resembling a distribution phase in price action, where the stock rises and then breaks down into a downward trend. This distribution phase signals potential weakness, leading to a bearish outlook.

How does the video suggest Tesla stock may behave in the short term?

In the short term, Tesla stock is expected to potentially drop towards the $325 area, after which it could become oversold. A recovery could follow, bringing the price back into the lower $330s, before heading lower again toward the $310s, where stronger support might be found.

What is the role of the Bollinger Bands in Tesla's technical analysis?

Bollinger Bands help assess volatility and price levels. When Tesla's stock moved outside the upper Bollinger Band and started closing back inside it, it signaled that the upward momentum was fading, and a period of consolidation or downward movement was likely.

What does the options flow reveal about Tesla's stock movement?

The options flow indicates a mix of bullish and bearish sentiment. Notably, aggressive puts came in for Tesla at $325 and $300 strike prices, suggesting some traders are betting on a decline. However, LEAPS with strikes near $350 show long-term bullish sentiment for Tesla stock.