Far right hoping for surge in upcoming EU elections | DW News
Summary
TLDR来週の欧州議会選挙では、右翼政党が大幅な獲得を予測されており、EUの政策に大きな影響を与える可能性があります。現在のEU議会では、中道の中央政党が議席の大多数を占めていますが、遠右のアイデンティティと民主主義グループ、ポピュリスト右の欧州保守派と改革主義者グループが議席を獲得し、中央右の欧州人民党と共に多数派を形成する可能性があります。フランスでは、国民集会が先行する見通しで、党首のジャン=マリー・レペンは国家主義と反移民のプラットフォームを掲げています。彼らはEUを疑い、国境の強化とEUの権限制限を求めていますが、他の政党と協力することもできます。欧州選挙は国内政治を反映しており、遠右政党は選挙で強い支持を得ています。
Takeaways
- 🗳️ 欧洲议会选举即将到来,预计右翼政党将获得重大胜利,这可能对欧盟政策产生巨大影响。
- 📊 目前主流的中派政党(从红色到深蓝色)在欧盟议会中占据多数席位,但根据预测,极右翼身份和民主团体(灰色)以及民粹主义右翼的欧洲保守派和改革派团体(浅蓝色)可能会获得席位,与中右翼的欧洲人民党(EP)形成多数。
- 🏛️ 极右翼在欧洲各地崛起,例如在法国,国民联盟在民调中领先,该党主席Jordan Bardella以民族主义和反移民平台进行竞选。
- 🎖️ 支持者们认为Bardella能够使法国再次闪耀,并在欧洲层面上发挥作用,他们认为Bardella理解年轻人,并能帮助他们。
- 🛂 国民联盟尽管最近试图扩大其吸引力,但仍然是欧洲怀疑论者和反移民者,主张加强边境检查和减少欧盟的权力。
- 🗣️ Bardella表示,6月9日的投票是对法国身份的希望投票,反对移民潮,对购买力和反对通货膨胀的投票,是在被抹去风险面前的生存投票,是为了在那些希望看到法国消失的人面前保持法国的活力。
- 💡 欧洲选举反映了许多国家的国内政治,极右翼政党在欧洲选举中表现强劲,政治分析师表示,如果他们能够如愿以偿,国民联盟将改变欧盟的政治格局。
- 🛑 极右翼政党主张破坏共同市场,重新确立国家优先原则,这可能会导致欧盟的经济基础崩溃,但这在很大程度上取决于他们能否在欧盟内部相互合作。
- 🤝 极右翼政党之间存在长期分歧的传统,因为他们是民族主义者,因此建立一个跨国集团,拥有共同规则和计划,对于这类政党来说比基督教民主党或绿党等更为困难。
- 📚 政治学家KAS Muda,专门研究欧洲和美国的极端主义,他写了《极右翼今天》一书,是美国乔治亚大学的政治学教授。
- 🚨 极右翼政党和他们的选民对在选举中获得增益感到自信,但大约25%的选票将投给极右翼,这意味着75%的选票不会投给极右翼,如果Ursula von der Leyen和EP不与极右翼合作,其权力就不会很大。
Q & A
ヨーロッパ議会選挙が近づいている中、どの政党が大きく得票する見込みですか?
-右翼政党が大きく得票する見込みで、特にフランスの国民集会党が先行していると予想されています。
国民集会党の党首ジョルダン・バルデラはどのような政権を主張していますか?
-ジョルダン・バルデラは国家主義と反移民のプラットフォームを主張しており、フランスを再び輝かせるための活動を行っています。
国民集会党はなぜヨーロッパへの懐疑的な姿勢をとっていますか?
-国民集会党は厳格な国境検査と欧州連合への権限の削減を求めており、ヨーロッパへの懐疑的な姿勢をとっています。
バルデラは選挙でどのようなメッセージを訴えていますか?
-バルデラはフランスのアイデンティティを守り、移民の洪水に対抗するというメッセージを訴えています。
欧州選挙はどのように国内政治に反映されていますか?
-欧州選挙は多くの国で国内政治を反映しており、右翼政党が強い支持を集めていると分析されています。
国民集会党がEU議会議席を獲得した場合、どのような影響を与えると予想されていますか?
-国民集会党がEU議会議席を獲得すると、共通市場の破壊や国家優先原則の再確立など、EUの経済基盤が崩れる可能性があると予想されています。
マルイン・ルペンは最近どのような声明を行いましたか?
-マルイン・ルペンは、彼女の政党が今後はドイツの右翼政党「代替」とは協力しないと声明しました。
右翼政党がEU議会議席を獲得した場合、彼らはどのようにEUを変えると主張していますか?
-右翼政党は共通市場の破壊や国家優先原則の再確立を主張しており、EUの経済基盤を変えることを目指しています。
右翼政党が獲得する議席はどの程度の影響力を持つと予想されますか?
-右翼政党が獲得する議席は約25%と予想されており、残りの75%は他の政党に分散するとされています。
右翼政党が主流化されるとどのような問題が生じる可能性がありますか?
-右翼政党が主流化されると、彼らの主張が社会に広まることによって、犯罪や腐敗、移民といった問題に対する偏った見解が広がる可能性があります。
EU選挙において、右翼政党がどのように選挙戦略を展開していますか?
-右翼政党は移民や犯罪、腐敗といった問題に焦点を当て、国民の不満を利用して選挙戦略を展開しています。
右翼政党が獲得する議席が主流政党と協力しない場合、どのような影響が予想されますか?
-右翼政党が獲得する議席が主流政党と協力しない場合、彼らの影響力は限定的になると予想されています。
EU選挙において、右翼政党が獲得する議席がどのグループと協力する可能性があると予想されていますか?
-右翼政党は、欧州人民党の右翼グループと協力する可能性があると予想されています。
Outlines
🗳️ EU選挙における右翼政党の台頭
来週のEU議会議席選挙では、右翼政党が大きく台頭する見込みです。彼らは移民や防衛を含むEU政策に大きな影響を与える可能性があります。現在、中央の中心政党が議席の大多数を占めていますが、遠い右のアイデンティティと民主主義グループ、民粹主義の右の欧州保守主義者と改革主义者グループが議席を獲得し、中央右の欧州人民党と共に多数派を形成する可能性があります。フランスの「国民の集会」は、国民主義と反移民のプラットフォームを掲げており、その支持者は若い政治家であるジョルダン・バデラを支持しています。彼らはフランスを再び輝かせるため、欧州レベルでの仕事を行って、若者を理解し、彼らが求めるものを助けるために彼を支持していると語っています。しかしながら、国民の集会は依然としてユーロスcepticであり、移民に対する厳しい境界検査とEUの力を弱めることが彼らの目標です。
👥 移民問題と右翼政党の支持
移民問題は、右翼政党が選挙を勝ち取る上で重要な鍵を握っています。欧州選挙は実際には27の異なる国内選挙であり、それぞれの選挙には国内の問題がありますが、移民は西ヨーロッパ諸国のほとんどの選挙で重要な問題となっています。東ヨーロッパ諸国では腐敗や政治不満などの他の伝統的な問題もありますが、遠い右は依然として抗議票に基づいて勝ち取っています。しかし、これはただの不満ではありません。遠い右に投票する人々は、犯罪が多すぎる、腐敗が多すぎる、移民が多すぎると感じています。移民問題は他の政党によっても重要視されており、移民を欧州から遠ざけることを目指すイタリアの右翼首相などがその一例です。しかし、遠い右の支持率が上昇していることには懸念もあります。実際、遠い右に投票する票は約25%に過ぎず、残りの75%は遠い右に投票しないということです。しかし、主流の右は遠い右政党と問題を正常化することで、彼らの影響力を広げています。新しい欧州議会では、遠い右の力は小さく、欧州人民党の右翼にあると言えます。彼らは社会民主主義者と自由主义者との伝統的な主流連合と、遠い右とのより右翼の多数派を作り出すことができます。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡欧州議会選挙
💡右翼政党
💡移民
💡民族主義
💡EU統合
💡国民集会党
💡選挙獲得
💡政治的主流
💡懐疑的立場
💡国民優先主義
Highlights
European Parliament elections are projected to have major gains by right-wing parties, impacting EU policies on migration and defense.
Mainstream Centrist parties currently hold the majority of seats, but far-right groups could form a majority with the center-right European People's Party.
The far-right National Rally party in France, led by Jordan Bardella, is campaigning on a nationalist and anti-migration platform.
Supporters of Bardella believe he can restore France's identity and address issues like immigration and economic challenges.
The National Rally party remains Euroskeptic and anti-immigration, advocating for stronger border checks and reduced EU power.
June 9th is seen as a vote of hope for France's identity and against the 'flood of migrants', according to the National Rally.
European elections reflect domestic politics, with far-right parties leading in many countries.
Political analysts suggest far-right parties could change the EU's political makeup, potentially dismantling the common market and prioritizing national interests.
Far-right parties face challenges in cooperation due to their nationalist ideologies, which conflict with the transnational nature of the EU.
Marine Le Pen's party has stated it will no longer cooperate with the far-right Alternative for Germany in the EU Parliament.
Far-right parties and their voters are confident about making gains in the upcoming elections.
Political scientist KAS Muda discusses the rise of the far right and its potential impact on European mainstream politics.
The European People's Party has adopted far-right issues in its campaign, blurring the lines between mainstream and far-right politics.
Immigration is a key issue that far-right politicians have successfully tapped into across Europe.
Far-right parties often win on the basis of protest votes centered around issues like crime, corruption, and immigration.
The real threat lies in the normalization of far-right parties and issues by mainstream groups, rather than the far right gaining power.
The power in the new European Parliament may lie with the right wing of the European People's Party, which could influence coalition dynamics.
Transcripts
European Parliament elections are next
week and right-wing parties are
projected to make major gains now this
could have a huge impact on EU policies
including migration and defense
currently the mainstream Centrist
parties seen here from red to dark blue
hold the majority of seats in the EU
Parliament but if the projections are
correct the far right identity and
democracy group seen here in Gray and
the populist right European
conservatives and reformists group in
light blue could gain seats to form a
majority with the center right European
people's party or EP now the far right
is on the rise across Europe in France
the national rally is ahead in the polls
the party's president Jordan bellaa is
campaigning on a nationalist and
anti-migration platform his supporters
told DW while they're why they're
rallying behind the young politician
this is the man they've come to see
Jordan badela lead candidate for
France's national R and the new Young
face of the far right in Europe at this
rally in the northern French city Hano
buo his message is resonating with
voters we came to support bardella so
that he makes France shine again as it
deserves to and that he does the job on
the European level and that he gives us
back our place so to say
which we've lost a
bit because he understands the young
people he's there to save us he
understands us he helps us and what we
are looking for and what we want is that
he helps us getting out of the mass
friends is currently
in despite recent attempts to broaden
its appeal the national rally remains
Euros skeptic and anti-immigration it
wants tougher border checks and less
power for the European Union
June the 9th will be a vote of Hope a
vote for France's identity against the
flood of migrants a vote for purchasing
power and against inflation a vote to
exist in the face of the risk of Erasure
a vote to keep France alive in the face
of those who would like to see it
disappear it is a populist message some
people in France want to hear these
European elections are mirroring
domestic politics in many countries
farri right parties are ping strongly
ahead of the European
elections political analysts say if they
had their way the farri national rally
would change the political makeup of the
EU it would come down to um destroying
the common
market uh reestablishing the the
principle of national priority National
preference as they say for nationally
made products for National corporations
so the whole economic I would say
foundations of the European Union would
collapse but that would largely depend
on their ability to cooperate with one
another within the EU we have to
remember that it's a long tradition of
disagreement on the far right because
these guys are nationalists so by
definition uh building a transnational
group uh where you are able to to have
common you know rules common programs
Etc is more difficult for that kind of
parties than for let's say Christian
Democrats are greens right just last
week senior figure Marine Le Pen said
her party would no longer cooperate with
the far right alternative for Germany in
the EU Parliament whatever the political
constellation in Parliament far right
parties and their voters feel confident
they'll make gains in these
elections I'm going join now by
political scientist KAS muda who
specializes in extremism in Europe and
the US he wrote the book the far right
today and he's professor of politics at
the University of Georgia in the United
States welcome to DW uh polls as we've
been saying are predicting a surge in
support for the far right in the EU
elections will the farri right will will
the far right soon be a part of European
mainstream politics or maybe it is
already what would you
say to a certain extent it is already um
if you look particularly at the
the campaign that the European People's
Party the mainstream right group is um
is leading then it mostly focus on
issues and uses frames of the far right
on immigration on the European uh green
deal but also if you look at some of the
key immigration policies more recently
then you see for example with the with
the EU Tunisia deal to keep immigrants
from coming to Europe you see money the
farri right prime minister of Italy
they're together with Ursula Vaya
together there with the Dutch prime
minister so would you say that
immigration for example is one of the
key issues that farri right politicians
are managing to tap into is that one of
the main driving
factors yes you always have to remember
that European elections are actually 27
different national elections and so
every election has National issues but
overall immigration is a key issue in
most of the West European countries in
some of the East European countries but
there are other traditional issues like
corruption just general political
dissatisfaction in most cases the far
right still wins on the basis of a
protest vote however this is not a
random protest vote it's not that people
who vote for the far right are just
unhappy they're unhappy about certain
issues they think that crime is too high
corruption is too high immigration is
too high and immigration is made
important in part by other
parties how concerning do you see this
rise uh in the popularity of far right
uh politicians and
parties well in itself we have to
remember that about 25% of the votes
will go to the far right which means
that 75% of the vote will not go to the
far right which means that if urula V
theion and the EP would actually not
collaborate with the far right its power
wouldn't be very big however when the
mainstream right says this they exclude
only the indd group the group of Leen
and before their expulsion the afd they
do not see the European conservatives
and reformist of money as a farri group
even though that group is also far right
and so in that sense like the real
threat is in the normalization of farri
right parties and farri right issues by
mainstream groups because the power is
not going to be at the far right the
power in the new European Parliament
will be in the right wing of the
European people's party which can now
play two coalitions against each other
on the one hand the traditional
mainstream Coalition with the social
Democrats and the Liberals
and they can put them under pressure by
saying if you don't do what we want we
will go to the far right and make a more
right-wing
majority casm political scientists and
farri expert thank you so much for
joining us on DW today
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