How Supply Chains Survived the 2021 Holiday Season
Summary
TLDR在2021年的假日季节,供应链面临前所未有的挑战。KPMG的供应链和运营负责人Brian Higgins认为,尽管存在诸多不确定性,零售供应链总体上成功应对了这一高峰时期。他提到,公司提前准备,零售销售同比增长8%至10%,显示出供应链的弹性。然而,他也指出,为了应对假日季节,供应链采取了一些非常规措施,如预付亚洲供应商的集装箱费用、空运成本飙升等,这些措施可能会侵蚀利润。Higgins强调,尽管短期内成功,但供应链仍需解决结构性问题,以避免未来再次出现类似的“英雄式”应对措施。他预见,供应链合作伙伴网络、制造基地和物流提供商之间的关系将发生永久性变化,以适应新的供应链世界。
Takeaways
- 📈 2021年的假日季对零售供应链来说是一个成功的时期,销售增长在8%到10%之间。
- 🛍️ 消费者提前购物,以避免假日季物流拥堵,这有助于缓解供应链压力。
- 🏬 零售商通过提供线上购买线下取货等服务,成功吸引了顾客到店。
- 🚚 物流公司如UPS、FedEx和USPS通过提前准备,较好地应对了假日季物流高峰。
- 🤔 尽管假日季表现不错,但仍存在供应链结构性问题,需要进一步解决。
- 👷♂️ 供应链中的“英雄行为”和非常规做法,如预付运费、接受有质量问题的货物等,可能不会持久。
- 🚫 供应链中的一些非常规做法,如过度依赖空运和支付高昂的运费,正在侵蚀利润。
- 🔮 供应链高管正在寻求提高对供应链的可见性和预测能力,以更好地应对未来的挑战。
- 🌐 供应链的数字化转型和高级规划系统正在被考虑,以提高供应链的效率和韧性。
- 🛠️ 供应链高管正在考虑对供应链基础进行结构性改革,包括重新评估供应商基地和整体网络。
- 🔄 供应链中的一些临时解决方案需要被更持久和可持续的策略所取代。
Q & A
2021年假日季节供应链面临的主要挑战是什么?
-2021年假日季节,供应链面临的主要挑战包括早期的假日购物季、对供应链中断的担忧、劳动力短缺以及零售销售的显著增长。
为什么零售商在2021年假日季节能够取得成功?
-零售商之所以能够成功,是因为他们提前从供应链角度做好了准备,并且零售销售在假日季节的最后几周实现了8%到10%的同比增长。
消费者为什么会在2021年假日季节提前购物?
-消费者提前购物可能是因为被告知要尽早购物以避免供应链中断,确保节日礼物能够及时送达。
供应链中的哪些非零售环节在2021年假日季节表现良好?
-非零售环节如UPS、FedEx和USPS等物流服务提供商在假日季节表现良好,他们预见到了压力并成功应对。
供应链中的“非自然行为”指的是什么?
-“非自然行为”指的是为了应对假日季节的压力,供应链高管采取的一些非常规措施,如预付亚洲供应商的集装箱费用、处理质量问题、空运成本飙升等。
供应链中的结构性问题指的是什么?
-结构性问题指的是供应链中尚未解决的根本性问题,如港口拥堵、进口量、劳动力可用性和成本、原材料稀缺性等。
供应链高管在假日季节采取了哪些措施来应对挑战?
-供应链高管采取了多种措施,包括预付运费、接受质量有问题的货物、使用空运以及延长工作时间等,以确保货物能够及时送达。
假日季节后,供应链高管将如何继续维持成功的供应链?
-高管们计划解决结构性问题,如重新评估供应基地、重新设计整体网络、审视每个工厂的目的和使命,以适应新的供应链环境。
供应链中的“新常态”是什么意思?
-“新常态”指的是供应链中的环境和条件发生了变化,需要供应链高管适应这种变化,采取新的策略和措施来维持供应链的稳定性和效率。
供应链高管如何看待未来的供应链合作伙伴网络?
-高管们认为未来的供应链合作伙伴网络需要更加智能化和灵活,以应对不断变化的市场需求和供应条件,同时也需要更好地预测和管理风险。
Outlines
🛒 2021年节日季供应链挑战与应对
本段讨论了2021年节日季零售供应链的表现。Brian Higgins,KPMG的供应链和运营领导者,分享了他对节日季的回顾。他指出,尽管面临前所未有的挑战,但许多公司准备充分,供应链表现良好。节日季的零售销售同比增长8%至10%,显示出供应链的弹性。然而,尽管整体成功,Higgins也提到了供应链中存在的结构性问题,这些问题可能在未来显现,需要解决。
🚚 供应链中的“非常规行为”及其后果
Higgins在第二段中详细讨论了供应链中的“非常规行为”,这些行为包括预付亚洲供应商的集装箱费用、处理质量问题、空运成本飙升等,这些都对利润造成了侵蚀。他强调,尽管这些措施帮助公司度过了节日季,但它们并不是长期的解决方案。Higgins认为,供应链需要解决这些结构性问题,以避免未来的风险。
🔮 供应链的未来:结构性改革与长期规划
在最后一段中,Higgins探讨了供应链的未来,强调了结构性改革的必要性。他提到,一些公司正在重新评估其供应链基础,重新设计网络,并确保每个工厂的目的和使命都适合新的供应链环境。Higgins认为,尽管短期内采取了“非常规行为”,但长期来看,供应链需要更加智能和有弹性,以应对未来的挑战。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡供应链
💡假日季节
💡零售销售
💡提前购物
💡物流
💡劳动力短缺
💡供应链高管
💡数字化转型
💡结构性问题
💡供应链网络
Highlights
2021年假日季供应链面临的挑战和应对措施。
KPMG的Brian Higgins认为2021年假日季对零售供应链来说是一个成功的时期。
供应链企业提前准备,应对假日季的挑战。
假日季零售销售同比增长8%到10%。
消费者提前购物以避免物流延误。
供应链高管论坛显示,零售商和物流公司成功应对了假日季。
Buy Online Pick Up In Store (BOPIS)和路边取货服务的增加。
物流公司如UPS、FedEx和USPS成功应对了假日季的物流压力。
供应链中的“非自然行为”和临时解决方案。
供应链高管对假日季的非常规做法表示担忧。
供应链中的结构性问题尚未得到解决。
供应链企业需要从临时解决方案转向结构性问题解决。
供应链中的变量和不确定性仍将持续。
供应链企业正在寻求提高预测能力和透明度。
供应链企业考虑重新评估供应基地和网络结构。
供应链的未来可能包括对合作伙伴网络和物流提供商的永久性改变。
Brian Higgins对供应链未来的洞察和建议。
Transcripts
[Music]
how supply chains survive the 2021
holiday season
brian higgins is principal and supply
chain and operations leader with kpmg
hello brian
hi bob
thanks for being with me i really
appreciate it so i'd like you to give me
to the extent you're able to not that
far after the conclusion of the just
concluded holiday season
a brief post-mortem on how retail supply
chains fared during the peak holiday
season
yeah hey happy to talk about it and it's
your point or sort of uh on the heels of
it i think
you know all of the sort of i would say
bob the early indicators are in right
and and i'll talk about it probably in a
couple of different uh dimensions i
guess
first of all like for the companies that
we service so for our client base
generally i think it was regarded as a
pretty successful holiday season
right this this was like no other i've
experienced in the history of my career
in terms of the
expectations and the hype around it and
the concern around it so i think it was
fairly obvious on one level it was it
was a really early holiday buying season
right so companies prepared from a
supply chain standpoint well in advance
right and and i think that work paid off
on one level right and and the biggest
measure of success for a lot of the
clients that we interact with is just
the the increase in retail sales in the
last couple of weeks on an aggregate
basis you've seen them as well as i and
you know whether it's in that eight to
ten percent you know increase in overall
retail sales for year over year uh from
a holiday season that's sort of the
general accepted kind of
uh metric at sort of the aggregate level
right and then you know we can certainly
peel that back a little bit but i guess
i'd start by saying all in all on an
aggregate basis i think it's generally
regarded as a pretty successful uh
holiday season well that's interesting
because we had some dire predictions
about how first of all maybe one of the
reasons why shoppers shopped early is
because we kept telling them to everyone
said shop early it's going to be a
disaster you're not going to get your
packages in time so it seemed like a lot
of shoppers went ahead and did that
but we don't hear about a lot of
disastrous cases of packages being held
up not being delivered for days and days
you know didn't make it for the holiday
season so
better than we thought right
yeah i i think so i think so you know
and again from a more anecdotal
standpoint you know i've got the benefit
of participating in a chief supply chain
executive form that we sponsor and
that's really good information right so
that i can pick up on some of the more
anecdotal evidence and i think
anecdotally you know i've certainly
heard from a number of our clients that
uh
i guess from a retail standpoint people
came in stores and they leveraged some
of the things that our client executives
were hoping that they would leverage so
the the buy online on pickup in store
great you know that that we did see some
uptick in the the curb side kind of pick
up yes we saw some uptick in there was
an anticipation that people would be
coming in stores and i think that that
did
at a high level that played out right
and again despite all the all the latest
you know virus concerns and
and issues that were prevailing
and then i think from the other
dimension from the non-retailers from
the providers the ups is the fedex the
usps kind of thing
that fell into the category of i think
they anticipated the crunch and
navigated fairly well yeah again this is
sort of all in the spirit of
relatively good news right um and and i
do have a perspective on hate coming out
of this you know what we can expect but
i think your first question around
how some of the components and stresses
and strains for an overall supply chain
fared i think
you know again inaccurate relatively
well i wonder if it's because we learned
some of the lessons of the previous
holiday season i mean ups and fedex both
put caps on the amount of stuff that
they would take from large large
shippers and maybe that helped to keep
them from melting down right
yeah no absolutely i i think you're
right i mean you think about it this is
what
almost the third
third third kind of a season where we're
experiencing some of this uh yeah
crazy variability right which influences
all the all the noise and things yeah i
guess the one big wild card that
everybody was afraid of was the impact
of what's been described as a widespread
labor shortage you wouldn't get enough
people to
staff the stores to staff the warehouses
and to drive the trucks but it appears
that well
maybe we did have enough just enough to
get by i don't know what do you think
yeah i i think there was sort of in in
pockets jeff just enough to get by i can
tell you though one of the things i'm
really interested in and we're having
more conversations now that the dust has
settled a little bit from this hyped up
holiday season
is
it's clear to me but there's a lot of
patchwork done
to to move products through the supply
chain to unclog the cholesterol so to
speak right but there's still a lot of
structural supply chain issues at play
that haven't really yet been addressed
that it's gonna come to roost because
there was a lot of heroics and a lot of
unnatural acts things that i would
describe as unnatural acts yeah
to i guess to enjoy this this you know
relatively um
successful or flat out successful
holiday season so
and what i'm talking about there in
terms of unnatural acts i can't tell you
how many supply chain executives that
i've spoken to that give me you know
information saying hey brian we're doing
things in this holiday prep season that
just make me terribly uncomfortable you
know we're prepaying for asia-based
suppliers containers arrive with a ton
of quality issues but you know what we
got to do it right to get our fair share
in this in this allocation mode air
freight all-time high that's eroding
profit you know the unloading trailers
you know it took me
37 hours prior to this it's ballooned to
57 hours so everything is more difficult
uh costing more
and and just in a challenge to navigate
and i think in general
supply chains prepped for this i think
they navigated fairly well but i do
think it's going to come back to roost
bob i think now that yeah through the
holiday season a lot of these structural
issues you know are going to be
needing to be addressed well what you're
just describing sounds more like
firefighting or even triage than it does
what you would normally do on a daily
basis with the supply chain even during
a peak season so going forward then tell
me about how we can emerge from this and
and and get back to some semblance of
normality i i know they will talk about
the new normal or whatever
but how can they go forward and contain
continue these successful supply chains
without resorting to these
unnatural acts you just described
yeah i i think the first thing that that
i guess we all need to get comfortable
with is that the environment that we
were participating in prior to the
holiday is still going to persist in
terms of this
unprecedented supply and demand
variability and really that's what's
driving all this madness so if you look
at the supply side there's so much
variability in the port congestions and
the import volumes and the labor
availability and some of the labor costs
that you've already addressed
but but it spills beyond that right it's
all the manufacturing input costs are
also hugely variable the raw material
scarcity
right and then on the demand side
there's an equal number of
drivers right that are also continued to
be variable the least of which is the
new covet cases
right now they're influencing the supply
chain in a different manner
but but that's that that's that's a
factor on the on the demand side the
consumer sentiment
you know the the the wage growth the
real disposable income all of these
things you put it into a pot and you
stir it up
and and then it's the the same factors
that we're producing this variability
prior to the holidays are for the most
part still persisting i think we're
going to see some
stability but i don't think it's going
to be a oh okay you know all of a sudden
we're in a position where it's a whole
different you know stable environment
right so if we sort of wrestle with that
or come to terms with that that's where
i'm seeing now okay
well now i think we've got to address
some of the more structural issues that
i described and i think that a lot of
the folks that we work with are are now
moving a little bit to say i survived
the holiday
now i've got to get to some of the
structural issues and that's where a lot
of the hard work kind of kind of is and
instead of that patchwork or that
quick fix kind of thing but i just
wondering how it affects the future of
supply chain partner networks uh you
know how where the partners will be
where the manufacturers will be how
companies will deal with their logistics
providers going forward there's got to
be some permanent changes that are in
the cards for these supply chains is
there not and i wonder what form they
might take
yeah i think you're absolutely right and
i think there's there's two
i guess high-level schools of thought
that i'm seeing our clients sort of
wrestle with you know there is a
a a set of circumstances where
executives are saying hey
all this nuttiness and all this
variability has convinced me that i
don't have enough
uh visibility i don't know if i have
enough planning capabilities to
understand what's coming my way
and we've seen that in the form of you
know
advanced planning systems digital
transformation around that people trying
to increase skills to get a better
understanding of their forecast and
what's coming very very difficult but
that's certainly a school of thought the
other one is saying hey you know what i
don't know if i'm ever going to get
comfortable on getting a better
understanding of predicting what's
coming my way because of all these
dimensions
and that that sort of categorization are
the folks that are working on some of
the more foundational changes that you
described saying hey i have got to get
myself smarter and better to buffer some
of this variability i need the shock
absorbers in my system because i know
the shocks still going to come
and those are the companies that are
saying hey i'm going to reevaluate my
supply base i'm going to revamp my
overall network i'm going to look at the
purpose and mission of every plant that
i have and make sure that that's that's
suitable for my new supply chain world
no problem
not a problem
right yeah yeah that comes with the
territory um okay so if i if the to some
extent these these shippers and
companies can catch their breath
and make these long-term plans and
change from what you described as
unnatural acts to natural acts let's
hope that that will have some impact on
supply chains going forward but
brian higgins great speaking with you
today kpmg thank you very much for your
insights really appreciate it
yeah i appreciate it thank you bob
thanks
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