Lessons to Be Learned From the Microchip Shortage
Summary
TLDR在这次访谈中,Cornerstone Consulting的总裁兼管理合伙人Bill Currents讨论了全球微芯片短缺问题以及制造商如何应对这一挑战。他指出,尽管制造商可能没有明显的错误,但全球大流行这样的不可预测因素导致了供应链的紧张。Currents强调了保持一定库存的重要性,以应对不可预见的危机,并建议制造商考虑库存策略的调整,如增加库存或本地化资源。他还提到了供应链多元化的必要性,以及自动化作为应对劳动力短缺的潜在解决方案。访谈强调了制造商可以控制的因素,如工资率、定价结构和供应链管理,以及如何利用这些工具来减轻未来潜在的干扰。
Takeaways
- 😀 由于全球性事件如大流行病,即使是有良好协议的公司也难以避免供应链中断。
- 🤔 专家普遍认为,过去几十年中实施的及时库存策略在无法生产时并不理想。
- 📚 企业需要储备一定的库存以应对外部力量,如自然灾害或极端天气。
- 🔄 未来可能会看到对过度精益生产和及时库存策略的调整。
- 🌐 企业可能会更多地考虑将资源本地化,减少对外部国家如中国的依赖。
- 🔍 在供应链管理中,多元化供应来源是减少风险的关键策略。
- 💡 自动化可以作为解决劳动力短缺问题的工具,随着技术的发展,自动化变得更加智能和经济。
- 💰 短期内,公司可能需要提高工资以吸引和保留员工,同时提高产品价格以应对通货膨胀。
- 👥 劳动力市场的变化要求雇主提供更好的生活质量和工作平衡,以吸引新一代员工。
- 🛠️ 企业应考虑自动化作为提高效率和减少对重复性工作依赖的手段。
- 🛡️ 企业应控制其能够控制的因素,包括库存、工资率、定价结构和供应链多元化。
Q & A
当前制造商面临的微芯片和其他组件供应不足的主要原因是什么?
-根据访谈内容,当前制造商面临的微芯片和其他组件供应不足的主要原因是全球性的外部力量,特别是全球大流行,这是一个百年一遇的事件,影响了全球所有人,即使是拥有最好协议的公司也难以避免。
Bill Currents 认为制造商在当前供应链危机中犯了哪些错误?
-Bill Currents 认为制造商并没有犯太多错误,因为这次危机主要是由不可控的外部因素导致的,比如全球大流行。
访谈中提到的'just-in-time'库存策略在当前危机中暴露出了什么问题?
-访谈中指出'just-in-time'库存策略在当前危机中的问题在于,当制造线关闭时,这种策略无法保证足够的库存,导致生产中断。
Bill Currents 认为制造商应该如何调整他们的库存策略?
-Bill Currents 建议制造商应该保留一些所谓的'body fat'或库存,以保护自身免受自然灾害或其他不可预见事件的影响。
访谈中提到了供应链本地化的趋势,这是什么意思?
-供应链本地化是指将资源和生产重新定位回美国,以减少对外部国家如中国和东盟国家的依赖。
Bill Currents 对于供应链多元化有什么看法?
-Bill Currents 认为企业应该至少有两到三个良好的供应源,特别是如果他们要在国外采购,这样可以减少供应链风险,并在出现地缘政治风险或其他问题时有更多的选择。
访谈中提到自动化可以解决劳动力短缺问题,这如何实现?
-访谈中提到,随着自动化技术的发展,将重复性或冗余的工作自动化是有意义的,这样可以应对劳动力短缺问题,同时自动化也有助于降低长期成本。
Bill Currents 认为制造商在应对当前危机时应采取哪些措施?
-Bill Currents 建议制造商应该采取一些措施,如提高工资以吸引员工,提高产品价格以应对成本上升,以及采用自动化技术来减少对人工的依赖。
访谈中提到的'lean fanaticism'是什么?
-'lean fanaticism'指的是过度追求精益生产,以至于忽视了保留一定库存的重要性,这在访谈中被认为是导致当前供应链问题的一个因素。
Bill Currents 对于未来制造业的发展趋势有何看法?
-Bill Currents 认为未来制造业将会出现更多的自动化,供应链的多元化,以及对劳动力的需求和待遇的重新评估,这些都是为了应对当前和未来可能出现的供应链危机。
访谈中提到的工资和物价上涨对制造商意味着什么?
-访谈中提到工资和物价上涨意味着制造商需要找到新的平衡点,这可能包括提高工资以吸引员工,提高产品价格以覆盖成本,以及寻找更有效的生产方式。
Outlines
😀 微芯片短缺与供应链管理
本段讨论了制造商在获取微芯片和其他组件方面面临的困境。Bill Currents,Cornerstone Consulting Organization的总裁和合伙人,被邀请分享他对当前形势的看法。他指出,尽管一些公司因为缺乏适当的协议而不再存在,但即使是那些有最佳协议的公司,也因为全球大流行这一百年或两百年一遇的事件而措手不及。讨论还涉及了及时库存策略的问题,这种策略在过去几十年中被用来最小化库存并节省成本,但在生产线停工时却显得不是个好主意。Bill认为,未来可能会看到更多的库存储备和供应链的本地化,以及对过度追求精益生产的重新思考。
😐 劳动力短缺与自动化的兴起
这段内容探讨了制造商面临的另一个挑战——劳动力短缺,尤其是在工厂中的工作。Bill提到,为了应对这一问题,公司可能不得不提高工资或改善生活质量以吸引员工。他还预测,未来几年可能会有一段通货膨胀期,供应可能需要三到五年才能满足需求。此外,Bill认为,制造商将更加依赖自动化来应对劳动力短缺问题,自动化不仅可以提高效率,还可以减少对重复性工作的依赖。他强调,虽然自动化可能不会完全取代人工,但它将成为处理劳动力短缺的一个越来越受欢迎的选项。
🤔 制造商的未来策略
在对话的最后部分,Bill和主持人讨论了制造商可以控制的事情,以及他们可以采取的策略来减轻未来可能发生的任何干扰。Bill强调,制造商需要有适当的库存来应对危机,控制工资率和定价结构,并且需要有多元化的供应链来应对外部冲击。他提到,尽管存在不确定性,但通过领导力的执行和正确的策略,制造商可以应对挑战。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡微芯片短缺
💡及时库存策略
💡精益生产
💡供应链多元化
💡地理特定干扰
💡自动化
💡劳动力短缺
💡质量生活
💡通货膨胀
💡固定成本
💡领导力
Highlights
当前许多制造商因无法获得足够的微芯片和其他组件而面临困境。
全球大流行是导致供应链问题的一个不可预测的外部因素。
即使是有最佳协议的公司,也难以应对百年一遇的全球性事件。
及时库存策略在无法生产时显得不再有效。
企业需要保持一定的库存量以应对不可预见的情况。
未来可能会看到对精益管理的狂热有所改变,以及更多资源的本地化。
制造商应该考虑多元化供应基地以减少特定地区的风险。
即使在全球化问题中,多元化供应源也是减少风险的关键。
自动化可以作为解决劳动力短缺问题的工具。
自动化的智能化使得将重复性工作自动化变得更加合理。
制造商可能会更多地依赖自动化来应对劳动力短缺。
短期内,制造商可能需要提高工资以吸引和保留员工。
生活质量的提高是年轻一代工人所期望的,企业需要适应这一点。
通货膨胀期间,企业需要提高产品价格以维持运营。
制造商可以控制的因素包括自动化、供应源多样化、工资率和定价结构。
企业需要有前瞻性,及时做出决策以应对市场变化。
制造商应从当前危机中学习,准备应对未来可能的中断。
Transcripts
[Music]
lessons to be learned from the microship
shortage my guest is bill currents he is
president and managing partner of
cornerstone consulting organization
hello bill
thanks a lot for having me on and uh
good to see you again good to see you
again as well so as you know
many manufacturers today are in a dire
situation with regard to obtaining
adequate supplies of microchips and
other components so putting aside for a
moment the factors that are beyond their
control
what mistakes do you think they made
that helped to put them in this
situation in the first place
uh uh honestly robert and not too many
real really uh and the reason why
is we've seen something this goes
back to a cornerstone we could fit
operations but there is external forces
that sometimes uh the bear gets you in
this case we had something unimaginable
a global pandemic uh
there's there's some companies that's
now no longer exist that didn't have the
right protocols but even those companies
that had the best protocols
uh this is a once in a 100 200 year
event that we have going on that
affected everybody across the entire
planet so uh quite honestly uh there
were some very good uh companies still
caught off guard because it was
absolutely outside of their control as
far as the reach and the overall this
global magnitude of this uh this event
well there is a general consensus among
a lot of experts and observers of monday
morning quarterbacks maybe you could
call them that the just-in-time
inventory strategies that were put into
place over the recent decades to
minimize inventory and save money in
that way turned out to not be a good
idea when you can't when your
manufacturing line shuts down would you
second that observation
we we first did the observation before
we seconded at cornerstone we're very
very very careful about uh we have
something called lions and tigers and
bears and and certain industries need
inventory to protect uh it could be a
hurricane it could be something else
like bad winter weather where trucks
don't make it on the road but we believe
that you should have some body fat when
you're a bear like in the in the uh in
denali uh not everybody's a lion on the
serengeti now sure oems
can actually get by away with it a
little bit more because all they're
doing is assembling parts but they still
have to have enough what we call body
fat or inventory i absolutely think that
this will change
uh what i would consider lean fanaticism
to some degree i mean one of the two
things that's going to happen here is a
little more body fat uh can can make you
healthier actually at times you don't
have to be at a 15 bmi all the time as
an organization uh to be healthy and uh
and the other thing that i think that
we'll see changing is a lot more
localization or resourcing back to the
us because of our dependency upon
external forces uh external countries
like china and uh the asean countries so
those two things but absolutely to be
sure
um this is something that lessons have
to be learned about taking lean too far
and taking just the time inventory too
far yeah
what about diversifying the supply base
now i know that in this case it's a
global problem but in the past we've had
geographically specific disruptions and
companies have been caught out because
they had decided to source everything
from that particular geography going
forward do you think that this in any
way will cause companies to look to
diversify their supplier base
but if they don't they're in trouble the
the bottom line is they're in trouble i
mean if you're going to get an
electrification which we're doing a lot
just met a ceo for a large box truck
electrification uh company yesterday and
they're gonna need help if you're
getting all your uh buying all your
lithium from china watch out because hey
it's a it's a it's a limited resource
and b
uh we know what happened we had all the
ppp uh you know the ppe stuff mass and
everything uh coming over from china and
then everything got hit i would say that
you need to have at least two or three
good sources if you're going to go
outside of the country but if i'm a u.s
manufacturer or north america i would be
looking inside north america at either
mexico or canada or inside the u.s as
part of a trade partner agreement so you
limit your supply chain and that risk
and also you have more options in case
there's a geopolitical risk or something
else happens in one of those regions
absolutely cost a lot more up front
requires longer term thinking on the
part of executives to in order to
embrace that that idea well honestly you
know the cost actually is not as much as
you would think and and this is where i
think that there's a mis there's some
there's misinformation out there if you
set things up correctly and in high you
know in high industrialized countries
you have a lot more opportunity for
automation the only reason you go to
low-cost countries is to leverage a
labor market but now you can almost meet
the exact same cost point through
automation in high-cost countries the
the big concern there is fixed costs
fixed leveraging so you need to make
sure that you have a good market and
you're going to hit on what your annual
projections are so you don't wind up
upside down or over levered by fixed
costs yeah
another factor that is
affecting manufacturers today is the
human factor and that is specifically
the lack of humans or the lack of
adequate humans to do jobs in the
factories and the like
uh if you bring it back to the united
states or or back to canada or mexico i
wonder that could be a problem
especially given today's uh you know
situation can't find enough people to
staff
these uh operations so going forward
what hard decisions might companies have
to make about workforces in order to
anticipate that kind of development
uh uh well robert on the short term
you're gonna have to raise your and
we're seeing it companies are starting
to come to the pub and raising their uh
their hourly rates or their salary um we
see a lot of turnover but it will begin
to stabilize even though we're still in
flux uh but quality of life is another
thing too i mean
gen x uh in the baby boomers you know
our generations here are you know going
to uh eventually retire and you've got
these millennials and and these genzirs
that quite honestly they demand a much
more balanced quality of life so you
know employers have to switch the way
they engage
however
what we're going to see is a period of
inflation just like in the last
interview so you have to also raise your
prices we'll have to get through this
it'll probably be a three to five year
stint uh before supply actually comes
back to meet demand and then once we get
to that point i think we'll see a
leveling off of the workforce but the
lessons to be learned here is don't get
cut short don't wait too long to make
those bold decisions to you know raise
your hourly rates to make sure that you
stay in business and then have the
courage coming behind it to raise your
prices because guess what we're seeing
it going everywhere and i've got to
commend procter gamble and some of the
other companies out there in the food in
the in the in the uh
the consumer industries that's doing
that because uh they're not going to get
caught short so what it really is is
just a new equilibrium point we're
seeing where everybody's wages are going
up but all the prices are going up and
so really it's almost the same thing
it's just everything's going to be a
little more costly
wages are going to be higher but also uh
you know consumer goods is going to be
higher and do you think that
manufacturers will come to rely more
heavily on automation i mean we're not
talking about automation replacing all
people in fact obviously but as a tool
for dealing with workforce shortages do
you think it'll become a more popular
option robert you're exactly right in
that aspect is you have to deliver
yourself and again it's just the natural
progression as automation becomes more
intelligent it makes more sense to put
those redundant or reoccurring jobs in
through automation
a lot of times you know
folks will look at it as a cost-benefit
analysis where you know the cost of
capital isn't going to go up at the same
rate as the cost of employees so some of
those business cases that they had
before where it didn't quite make sense
to automate
two years ago now today may make sense
so i think what we're going to see is a
resurgence of that and i think we're
going to see a lot of growth in the
technical uh the tech industry and the
automation industry over the next few
years because of this so bottom line we
started out this conversation by talking
about all the stuff that is not within
the control of manufacturers today but
we got into talking about the things
that are within their control so there
are things that manufacturers can do i
mean the high points as you say certain
amount of automation a certain amount of
the supplier diversification so some
manufacturers have some tools do you
think to make to to kind of lessen the
pain of the next disruption do you think
i think that they absolutely exist i
mean we have a whole array of tools and
not just you know at cornerstone but
there's others out there i think it's
going to be a departure from some of the
old sacred cows
the lean manufacturing likely covered
earlier you have to have enough
inventory to survive a small or a large
crisis that's within a company's control
to say it's just like you know most
people have an insurance policy on their
house yes it's extra money that you
normally don't you know need to use but
when the time comes where your house
goes up in flames you you have you have
the insurance policy inventory in that
matter has to be looked at external
forces you control that you also control
your wage rates you also control the
pricing structure that you're going to
present to your customer and quite
honestly we're working with a lot of
oems they understand that prices are
going to have to go up because of
inflationary pressures all that is
within your control so the main tenants
uh that each company has is largely
within their control even your supply
chain right like you said
diversification of supply chain people
and companies have to be able to realize
that i need two or three different
resources here so in case something
happens in one area earthquake or like
what happened to japan a few years ago
tsunami i can overcome that by having
secondary supply sources so all those
things are within a company's control
it's just again having the leadership
encouraged to execute on those things
that is good to know in uncertain times
bill currents cornerstone consulting
good to talk to you on these topics
thanks for your insights really
appreciate your time thank you
appreciate it robert thanks again bye
you
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