XPA Market Update - Maio 2024
Summary
TLDRMateus Mazão, part of the HP advisor team, discusses tactical portfolio movements in line with their allocation process. They finalized the allocation of fixed assets through 2026 and funds indexed to IRFM (an inflation-linked index), totaling 10% of the moderate profile portfolio. Following a recent interest rate correction, they see a favorable symmetry for gains from current prices, leading to an overweight position in fixed assets. After economic data showed progress in monetary policy, they increased the allocation in inflation-linked fixed income by 5%, now totaling 32.5%, focusing on the duration of the IMAB (Inflation-Indexed Bond) segment. They are overweight in two steps in the class, financed by reducing post-dated assets and high-grade credit assets, which have compressed credit risk spreads. With economic uncertainty, they have maintained a conservative risk budget strategy. They are underweight in post-dated assets, overweight in pre-dated assets and inflation-linked assets, neutral in multi-asset and variable income Brazil. The main contributors were post-dated fixed income, while the detractors were macro multi-asset and variable income Brazil assets. They are underweight in global fixed and variable income.
Takeaways
- 📈 The HP advisor team, including Mateus Mazão, made tactical movements in their portfolios throughout the month.
- 🔄 They finalized the allocation of pre-specified assets through 2026 and funds indexed to IRFM (a Brazilian inflation index).
- 💹 There was a 10% increase in the portfolio for a moderate profile, reflecting a recent correction in the interest rate curve.
- 📉 The team sees a favorable symmetry of gains from current prices due to the increased attractiveness in risk premiums.
- 📈 They are now overweight in pre-specified assets in the strategic allocation process, considering the potential scenarios of monetary policy and economic data.
- 📉 After the release of economic data showing progress in monetary policy, they are more confident about the restrictive level of global interest rates and the next move being a decrease.
- 🔺 They increased the allocation in fixed income linked to inflation by 5%, focusing on the duration of the IMAB (a Brazilian inflation-linked bond), bringing the total to 32.5%.
- 📉 They are underweight in post-specified assets and have reduced assets in high-grade credit and cash equivalents due to compressed credit risk spreads.
- 🚨 The team has maintained a low risk budget utilization in portfolios, adopting a more conservative and gradual approach to increasing risk.
- 🔄 Recent market downturns have provided better opportunities to increase risk, proving their conservative strategy to be correct.
- 🌐 They are underweight in global fixed income and global variable income, with the main contributors being post-fixed income assets and the main detractors being macro multi-asset and Brazilian variable income assets.
Q & A
What is the name of the person who is part of the HP advisor team?
-The person's name is Mateus Mazão.
What did the team at HP advisor do during the month?
-The team carried out several tactical movements in their portfolios, in line with their transparent allocation process.
What changes were made in the portfolio at the end of the month?
-They finalized the tranches in fixed-income assets through 2026 and in IRFM-indexed funds, and these allocations were made over the last few weeks, totaling 10% in the moderate profile portfolio.
Why did they increase the allocation to fixed-income assets?
-Due to the recent correction in the interest rate curve, which increased rates and made risk premiums more attractive, they saw a favorable symmetry for gains from current prices.
What is the current stance on fixed-income assets in the strategic allocation?
-They are now overweight in fixed-income assets.
What economic data influenced their confidence in the progress of monetary policy?
-Data that showed progress in the labor market and the convergence of inflation towards targets.
What was the increase in the allocation to inflation-linked fixed-income assets?
-They increased the allocation by 5%, with a focus on the duration of the IMAB inflation portion.
What is the total allocation to inflation-linked fixed-income assets after the increase?
-The total allocation is now 32.5%.
How did they finance the increased allocations to fixed-income assets?
-They financed it by reducing assets in post-fixed income, cash, and high-grade credit assets that already had compressed credit risk spreads.
What is their current stance on post-fixed income assets and multi-asset classes?
-They are underweight in post-fixed income assets and neutral in multi-asset classes.
What was the performance of global fixed-income and variable-income assets in the month?
-They are underweight in global fixed-income and underweight in global variable-income assets.
What were the main contributors and detractors to the portfolio's performance for the month?
-The main contributors were from the fixed-income post-fixed class, while the main detractors were macro multi-asset classes and Brazilian variable-income assets.
Outlines
Portfolio Adjustments and Market Analysis 📈
Mateus Mazão introduces himself as part of the HP advisor team and discusses the strategic portfolio adjustments made during the month. The team finalized investments in pre-committed assets through 2026 and in funds indexed to IRFM for fixed allocations. These investments were made over the past weeks, totaling a 10% increase in the moderate profile portfolio. With the recent correction in the interest rate curve, the team sees a favorable symmetry of gains from current prices. After analyzing economic data and market conditions, they believe there are gains that justify the position in pre-committed assets. The team is now overweight in pre-committed assets. Following the release of economic data, they are more confident that despite some delay in the interest rate cut cycle, the next move should be a drop. They have increased the allocation to inflation-linked fixed income by 5%, with a focus on the duration of the IMAB inflation portion, which now totals 32.5%. They have maintained a conservative strategy with a low risk budget and have found better opportunities to increase risk. The team is underweight in post-committed assets, overweight in pre-committed assets, and also in assets linked to inflation, focusing on the duration of the IMAB. They are neutral in multi-asset and variable income in Brazil. Lastly, they are underweight in global fixed income and variable income. The main contributors were from the post-committed income class, while the main detractors were multi-asset macro and Brazilian income assets.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡HP advisor
💡tactical movements
💡investment committee
💡fixed-income assets
💡IRFM
💡portfolio allocation
💡interest rate curve
💡overweight
💡inflation-linked bonds
💡
💡credit spread
💡risk budget
💡multi-asset class
Highlights
Mateus Mazão is part of the HP advisor team and has made tactical movements in their portfolios.
The team has aligned their actions with transparency in the allocation process.
In the last week of the month, they finalized tranches of fixed assets through 2026 and funds indexed to IRFM.
Allocations were made over the last few weeks, now totaling 10% in the moderate profile portfolio.
Due to a recent correction in the interest rate curve, there's increased attractiveness in risk premiums.
The team sees a favorable symmetry of gains from current prices within their probabilistic process.
After analyzing economic data and market conditions, they believe there are already gains justifying the position in fixed assets.
The team is now overweight in fixed assets in the strategic allocation.
Economic data revealed progress in monetary policy, leading to increased confidence.
Despite some delay in the interest rate cut cycle, the team believes the next move should be a drop.
They increased the allocation in fixed income linked to inflation by 5%, with a focus on duration.
The team is now over-allocated in two steps in the class, with both allocations financed through the reduction in post-fixed assets.
There's a low degree of risk budget utilization in portfolios due to observed economic cycle uncertainty.
The conservative strategy of gradual risk increase has proven to be correct.
The team is underweight in post-fixed assets, overweight in pre-fixed assets, and also overweight in inflation-linked assets.
They are neutral in multi-asset and variable income in Brazil.
Underweight positions are held in global fixed income and global variable income.
The main contributors in the month were from the fixed income post-fixed class, while the detractors were macro multi-asset and Brazilian variable income assets.
The team thanks the audience and looks forward to the next month.
Transcripts
Olá tudo bem Meu nome é Mateus Mazão e
faço parte do time da HP advisor ao
longo do mês realizamos alguns
movimentos táticos em nossos portfólios
modelo em linha com a nossa
transparência no processo de alocação
realizamos as seguintes mudanças através
do nosso comitê de investimentos em
primeiro lugar na última semana do mês
finalizamos as tranch em ativos
pré-fixados através da 2026 e em Fundos
indexados ao irfm para os Fix as
alocações foram feitas ao longo das
últimas semanas e somou agora 10% no
portfólio 2 de perfil moderado
considerando a recente correção na curva
de juros que gerou aumento nas taxas e
maior atratividade nos prêmios deem
risco passamos a enxergar uma simetria
favorável de ganhos a partir dos preços
atuais dentro do nosso processo
probabilístico analisando os possíveis
cenários de trajetória da política
monetária os dados econômicos e de
mercado acreditamos que Já exista ganhos
que justifiquem a posição em pré-fixados
sendo assim estamos agora overweight em
pré-fixados na locação estratégica em
segundo lugar após divulgação de dados
econômicos que evidenciaram o progresso
do trabalho da política monetária na
desaceleração do mercado de trabalho e
na convergência da inflação para as
metas nos sentios mais confiantes que
apesar de alguma postergação do início
de ciclo de ceda de juros a taxa de
juros no mundo está em nível bastante
restritivo e que o próximo movimento
Deve sim ser de queda dito isto como as
taxas dos títulos ainda permanecem em
níveis bastante atraentes aumentamos em
5% a locação em renda fixa atrelada à
inflação com duration concentrado no
imab parcela de inflação soma agora 32,5
por tendo como base o perfil dois
estamos overate em dois steps na classe
vale dizer que ambas as alocações foram
financiadas através da redução em ativos
pós-fixados em entre caixa e ativos de
crédito High grade que já se encontram
com prêmios de risco spred de crédito
bastante comprimidos rel Lembrando que
devido a maior incerteza que temos
observado nesse ciclo econômico já H
algum tempo temos mantido um baixo grau
de utilização do orçamento de risco das
carteiras a estratégia mais conservadora
e mais gradual no aumento do Risco vem
se mostrando acertada e com a pior
recente nos mercados tem nos dado
melhores oportunidades para aumentar o
risco em resumo estamos underweight tem
ativos pós-fixados overate em ativos
pré-fixados overate também em ativos
atrelados à inflação com foco no
duration do mab neutros em multimercados
e também neutros em renda variável
Brasil por fim estamos underweight em
renda fixa global e underweight em renda
variável global no mês os principais
promotores vieram da classe de renda
fixa pós-fixada ao passo que os
principais detratores foram os
multimercados macro e ativos de renda
variável Brasil Muito obrigado e e até o
mês que vem um abraço
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