USA Today’s Danny Sheridan Talks Super Bowl Odds & Betting w/ Dan Patrick | Full Interview | 1/21/20

Summary

In this interview, sports handicapper Danny Sheridan shares his expertise on the evolving world of legalized sports betting. He discusses the impact of the Supreme Court’s 2018 ruling, addressing concerns about game-fixing and the role of bookmakers in maintaining integrity. Sheridan also offers insights on Super Bowl betting strategies, highlighting the risks of prop bets and emphasizing the importance of betting on the point spread and over/under totals. With more states legalizing sports betting, he explains how the industry is growing and offers advice for both casual and experienced bettors.

Takeaways

• 😀 Sheridan emphasizes that the legalization of sports betting in 2018 was a turning point, making betting more accessible across the U.S. and reducing inconsistencies in state laws.
• 😀 He believes that sports betting is now harder to manipulate due to the increased monitoring of large bets, which raises red flags with bookmakers if something unusual happens.
• 😀 Sheridan argues that prop bets are generally not a good idea for casual bettors, as the public often loses money on them, with bookmakers benefiting from their unpredictability.
• 😀 He explains that betting on the point spread and the over/under is a more reliable strategy, as it has a higher probability of success compared to prop bets.
• 😀 Sheridan shares that betting on Super Bowl outcomes typically follows patterns, with bettors favoring the favorite early in the week, and the total bet (over/under) being placed closer to game day.
• 😀 He describes how large amounts of money bet on a particular game can signal potential match-fixing, but modern safeguards in the betting industry help prevent this.
• 😀 Sheridan points out that betting on your own team, while controversial, is much less problematic than betting against it, which could result in manipulating the outcome of the game.
• 😀 The issue of integrity in sports betting is a key focus, with Sheridan referencing past scandals, like the Houston Astros cheating incident, and how sports betting can act as a safeguard against future violations.
• 😀 He highlights how legalized sports betting brings a new generation of bettors who previously used illegal bookies, now engaging with regulated, legal platforms.
• 😀 Sheridan notes the continued existence of illegal bookmakers, who still attract bettors who want to avoid government oversight and taxes on their betting activities.

Q & A

What led to the legalization of sports betting in the United States in 2018?

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in May 2018 struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), allowing states to regulate sports betting independently. This decision was a response to the growing demand for legal sports betting and the perceived absurdity of allowing it in Nevada while banning it elsewhere.

Why was the situation where Nevada was the only state with legal sports betting considered absurd?

It was seen as illogical because while people in Nevada could legally bet on sports, residents of states like New York and Alabama were prohibited from doing the same, despite the widespread availability of illegal sports betting options in other states.

What safeguards are in place to prevent sports betting scandals or game-fixing?

With legalized sports betting, the industry is heavily regulated. Safeguards include monitoring for unusual betting patterns and large bets, which can raise red flags and prompt investigations. Sheridan notes that sportsbooks and regulators are incentivized to maintain integrity in the system, making it much harder to manipulate or fix a game.

How do sportsbooks ensure the integrity of sports betting?

Sportsbooks monitor betting activity closely. For instance, if an unusually large wager is placed on a game, it can trigger alerts, signaling potential manipulation or game-fixing. This vigilance helps maintain the integrity of the betting process, as sportsbooks do not want to jeopardize their credibility.

What is Danny Sheridan's general approach to betting on major events like the Super Bowl?

Sheridan's approach is to focus on the basics, specifically betting on the point spread and the total points. He advises against getting distracted by prop bets, which he believes are more risky and tend to favor the bookmaker. His strategy involves picking the winner and analyzing the game’s total points based on the teams' strengths and weaknesses.

What betting strategy does Sheridan recommend for games with high-scoring teams?

Sheridan recommends betting the under in games featuring high-scoring teams. This strategy is based on the idea that even the most offensive teams can struggle to meet a high total, especially in high-stakes games like the Super Bowl, where defenses tend to perform better than expected.

Why does Sheridan avoid betting on prop bets?

Sheridan believes that prop bets are largely unpredictable and favor the bookmaker. He highlights that the public often bets on the over for quarterback passing yards or other statistics, but overall, the public loses money on these types of bets. He prefers betting on the point spread and over/under because these bets are based on more reliable factors.

How do illegal bookies fit into the legalized sports betting landscape?

Sheridan argues that legalized sports betting does not significantly affect illegal bookmakers. People who prefer not to have their betting activity tracked by the government will still seek out illegal bookmakers. Legal sportsbooks cater to the new generation of bettors who prefer to place bets through legitimate channels.

How has the legalization of sports betting impacted the betting industry in states like New Jersey?

Since New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018, the state has seen an explosion in betting activity. Within just a few months, over $4 billion was wagered in the first year alone. The legalization has unleashed a pent-up demand for legal betting, drawing in both new and seasoned bettors who previously relied on illegal options.

What advice does Sheridan offer to bettors who rely on sports handicappers or betting systems?

Sheridan warns against relying on so-called 'scamdicappers'—services that promise surefire betting tips for a fee. These operations often give both sides of a bet to different customers, creating an illusion of success. Sheridan advises bettors to avoid these services and trust their own research and analysis to make informed betting decisions.