Inside the mind of a climate change scientist | Corinne Le Quéré | TEDxWarwick

Summary

In this engaging talk, the speaker humorously shares their personal journey with climate science, from the discovery of an anomaly in Southern Ocean CO2 levels to the realization of human-induced global warming. They candidly discuss their moments of doubt and anxiety, yet remain hopeful about the future, urging listeners to take personal action on climate change. The speaker emphasizes the importance of individual choices and actions, from recycling to reducing meat consumption, as a collective force for change.

Takeaways

• 🌊 The speaker shares a story about finding an anomaly in carbon cycle data in the Southern Ocean, challenging expectations of rising CO2 levels.
• 🌍 Despite the overwhelming evidence of climate change, including rising global temperatures and melting ice, the speaker admits to occasional doubts, but each time reconfirms the science.
• 📊 The speaker emphasizes that all climate models show human activities as the primary cause of the current warming trend, dismissing other explanations.
• 😂 The speaker uses humor to highlight their passion for science, such as when they dramatically proclaimed 'the end of the world is coming' after finding an anomaly.
• 🧊 A memorable moment involves sharing 100,000-year-old ice with family, breathing in ancient air, and using it for a gin and tonic—a symbolic connection to climate history.
• 🏛️ The speaker recalls being summoned to explain their findings to the future Prime Minister, highlighting the significance of scientific discoveries on a political level.
• 🚗 The speaker argues that technology alone, such as electric cars, won’t solve climate change if societal habits and attitudes don't change.
• 📶 A humorous reflection on how they initially overlooked the importance of Wi-Fi, drawing a parallel to society’s underestimation of the urgency of climate action.
• 📢 The speaker encourages people to broadcast their environmentally friendly actions, such as recycling or eating meat-free meals, to normalize sustainable behavior.
• 🌱 The speaker expresses hope that within their lifetime, humanity will end environmental destruction, shift to a plant-based diet, and breathe clean air in cities.

Q & A

What was the speaker's initial quest in the Southern Ocean?

The speaker was on a quest to find the signature of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave in their carbon cycle data in the Southern Ocean.

What anomaly did the speaker discover in the Southern Ocean's CO2 levels?

The anomaly was that the Southern Ocean was not taking up CO2 the way it should, contrary to expectations due to increased CO2 emissions.

How does the speaker react to the annual global temperature records and extreme weather events?

The speaker admits to feeling a sense of validation, even excitement, when global temperature records are broken or extreme weather events occur, as these are seen as evidence of climate change.

What does the speaker do when faced with doubts about climate change?

When faced with doubts, the speaker re-examines the data, including warming trends, melting ice, and other indicators, to reaffirm the evidence supporting human-induced climate change.

Why does the speaker mention the Antarctic ice and its significance?

The speaker mentions Antarctic ice to illustrate how scientists measure past CO2 levels and to highlight the unusual state of today's atmosphere, which is significantly different from the past.

What was the unique experience the speaker had with the 100,000-year-old ice?

The speaker brought home a piece of 100,000-year-old Antarctic ice, which they and their family breathed in and used to make gin and tonic, symbolizing a direct connection to the past.

What is the speaker's view on the role of technology in solving climate change?

The speaker believes that technology alone will not save us from climate change; it is already available, but people need to be smart enough to see and use it effectively.

Why does the speaker mention Wi-Fi in the context of climate change?

The speaker uses Wi-Fi as an example of a technological advancement that they initially failed to recognize the potential of, illustrating the point that we may not always see the solutions to climate change even when they are right in front of us.

What action does the speaker suggest individuals take regarding climate change?

The speaker encourages individuals to not only act on climate change but also to broadcast these actions to raise awareness and normalize sustainable practices.

What is the speaker's ultimate message about the responsibility for addressing climate change?

The speaker's ultimate message is that the responsibility for addressing climate change lies with individuals, and they rely on the audience to take action and make a difference.

Outlines

00:00

🔬 The Obsession with Science and Climate Anomalies

The speaker begins by sharing a personal story about their passion for science, recalling an incident while working in East Germany post-Berlin Wall. They were excited about discovering an anomaly in the Southern Ocean's CO2 data, which contradicted expectations of rising CO2 levels due to human activities. The speaker reflects on their emotional reaction to climate anomalies, the thrill of proving scientific predictions, and their shifting feelings about climate change as they move away from the emotional to the scientific aspects.

05:03

🌍 Human Activity and Climate Change

The speaker discusses the overwhelming evidence of human-induced climate change, noting that all the global warming trends can be attributed to human activities. Despite occasional cold spells, the overall trend is unmistakable. The speaker addresses the common questions and doubts they have faced in their career, explaining that no other reasonable explanation fits the data besides human impact. They highlight how the sun's brightness and natural cycles have been ruled out, leaving greenhouse gas emissions as the undeniable cause of climate change.

10:05

🧊 The Perks and Realities of Being a Scientist

The speaker shares a humorous anecdote about presenting their anomaly to the Prime Minister alongside a colleague carrying 100,000-year-old Antarctic ice. They reflect on the magical moment of showcasing the ice, which releases tiny pops of ancient air, giving insights into historical CO2 levels. The story culminates in a family moment, where the speaker brings the ice home to share with their children, ultimately using it to make a gin and tonic—a light-hearted reprieve from the weighty topic of climate change.

15:09

🏛️ Scientists, Technology, and Climate Change

The speaker humorously critiques the competitive nature of scientists, highlighting the achievements in various fields. They touch on the false belief that 'technology will save us' and argue that while technology exists to combat climate change, society fails to use it effectively. Sharing a story about missing the significance of Wi-Fi, the speaker emphasizes that technological solutions alone are not enough to solve the climate crisis. They stress that real change requires a societal shift in behavior and priorities, not just advances in engineering or IT.

🌱 Personal Action Against Climate Change

The speaker reveals their decision to stop trying to convince people about the seriousness of climate change. Instead, they urge individuals to come to their own conclusions through personal experience, much like how gravity is taught. The speaker advocates for raising environmental awareness by broadcasting simple actions like recycling or cycling to work. They envision a future where society moves towards sustainable living and environmental responsibility, convinced that real change will come from collective individual actions, not just from scientists or technology.

Keywords

💡Antarctic Circumpolar Wave

The Antarctic Circumpolar Wave is a large-scale atmospheric and oceanic wave system that encircles Antarctica. It plays a significant role in the climate system, affecting ocean currents and weather patterns. In the script, the speaker's quest to find the wave's signature in carbon cycle data symbolizes the broader search for understanding in climate science. The anomaly found in the Southern Ocean's CO2 levels, contrary to expectations, is a pivotal moment that underscores the unpredictability and urgency of climate change.

💡CO2

CO2, or carbon dioxide, is a greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming by trapping heat in the Earth's atmosphere. The script discusses the unexpected anomaly of the Southern Ocean not absorbing CO2 as expected, which is a stark reminder of the complexities of the climate system. This serves as a wake-up call to the audience about the ongoing and potentially accelerating impacts of climate change.

💡Climate Change

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. It is primarily caused by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, which increase the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The speaker uses personal anecdotes and scientific data to illustrate the reality of climate change, emphasizing its seriousness and the need for action.

💡Greenhouse Effect

The greenhouse effect is a natural process where certain gases in the Earth's atmosphere trap heat, keeping the planet warm enough to sustain life. However, human activities have increased the concentration of these gases, enhancing the greenhouse effect and leading to global warming. The script mentions the physics of greenhouse gases, highlighting our understanding of the mechanisms driving climate change.

💡Anomaly

An anomaly in scientific terms refers to something that deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected. In the context of the script, the speaker discovers an anomaly in CO2 levels that should be rising but are not, which triggers a deeper investigation into climate patterns. This discovery is a metaphor for the surprises and challenges that scientists face when studying climate change.

💡Global Temperature Records

Global temperature records are measurements that track the average temperature of the Earth over time. The script mentions the annual announcement of these records, often marking another year of record-breaking temperatures. This serves to emphasize the ongoing trend of global warming and the urgency of addressing climate change.

💡Wi-Fi

Wi-Fi is a technology that allows electronic devices to connect to the internet wirelessly. In the script, Wi-Fi is used as an example of a technological advancement that the speaker initially overlooked but later realized could have significant implications for connectivity and efficiency, paralleling the need for society to recognize and utilize existing solutions to climate change.

💡Fossil Fuels

Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas, are non-renewable energy sources formed from the remains of ancient plants and animals. The script discusses the need to transition away from fossil fuels to combat climate change, as their combustion releases large amounts of CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

💡Melting Ice

Melting ice, as mentioned in the script, refers to the process of ice sheets, glaciers, and sea ice breaking apart and turning into water due to rising temperatures. This is a visible sign of climate change, with consequences such as rising sea levels and the loss of habitats for polar species. The script uses melting ice as a poignant symbol of the irreversible changes already happening due to global warming.

💡Recycling

Recycling is the process of converting waste materials into new materials and products to reduce waste and pollution. The speaker encourages the audience to not only engage in recycling but also to openly discuss and broadcast these actions to normalize environmental responsibility. Recycling is presented as a personal action that contributes to the collective effort against climate change.

💡Environmental Destruction

Environmental destruction refers to the severe and often irreversible damage to the natural environment and ecosystems caused by human activities. The script concludes with a call to end this destruction, emphasizing that change is possible through collective action and a shift in societal norms and values.

Highlights

The speaker recalls an experience working in East Germany after the Berlin Wall fell, searching for the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave's signature in carbon cycle data.

The discovery of an anomaly in the Southern Ocean's CO2 uptake, contrary to expectations based on atmospheric CO2 increase, is highlighted as a breakthrough moment.

The speaker humorously describes storming into a colleague’s office, exclaiming about the anomaly and predicting a faster-than-expected environmental crisis.

The speaker admits excitement when global temperature records are broken, acknowledging a scientific obsession over data more than the human impact of climate change events.

Despite the serious implications of climate change, the speaker emphasizes that they will not try to convince others but instead focus on sharing the science.

A reflection on doubts in climate science leads the speaker to reaffirm their trust in the physical data and models, confirming human-caused climate change.

The importance of greenhouse gas physics and how models only reproduce current observations when factoring in human activity is explained.

The speaker humorously requests that if anyone has a reasonable alternative explanation for climate change, they should present it, but dismisses natural cycles as insufficient explanations.

A memorable moment is shared about being summoned by a future Prime Minister to explain an anomaly, accompanied by a colleague with ancient Antarctic ice.

The speaker describes bringing home a piece of 100,000-year-old Antarctic ice to share with their family, culminating in drinking the 'best gin and tonic ever' with the ancient ice.

A lighthearted segment touches on the peculiarities of pronunciation in British cities like 'Norwich' and 'Warwick,' eliciting laughter from the audience.

The speaker humorously critiques engineers and IT professionals, suggesting that although technology exists to solve climate issues, society lacks the will to use it effectively.

Wi-Fi is used as an example of a technology that the speaker initially underestimated, illustrating how significant advancements are sometimes overlooked.

The speaker emphasizes that solving climate change requires a complete transformation of energy use and moving entirely away from fossil fuels.

The talk concludes with a call for personal action on climate change, asking people to not just act in secret but to openly broadcast their environmentally conscious decisions.

Transcripts

Transcriber: Amanda Zhu Reviewer: Peter Van de Ven

I love science.

But I have to admit

you can get pretty obsessive over science sometimes.

I used to work in former East Germany

right after the wall, the Berlin Wall, came down,

and I was on a quest

to find the signature of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave

in my carbon cycle data in the Southern Ocean.

It's very windy in the Southern Ocean,

and there is this wave

that circles around Antarctica endlessly.

And here I am

looking for the wave in my carbon data

when I spot an anomaly.

We know, because we're putting all that CO2 in the atmosphere,

that the Southern Ocean CO2 should also be going up,

but this is not what it does -

there is an anomaly.

So I storm into my neighbor's office,

and I say, "Oh, I’m so excited!

I’m so excited! I made a discovery.

There is an anomaly.

The Southern Ocean is not taking up CO2 the way it should."

What he says: "But what does it mean?"

"The end of the world is coming faster than we thought,"

and I storm out.

(Laughter)

I am not proud of myself.

(Laughter)

Every year

when the global temperature of the year is announced in December

and we have yet another warming record,

I go, "Yes!"

And every year

when the Australian Weather Service

adds a color contour to their weather maps

because the temperature is getting so hot that the highway is melting,

I go, "Wow!"

And when parts of US, of Texas, the oil state,

get an astronomical 26 inches of rain

in one day during a hurricane,

in part because of the atmosphere, the warm atmosphere,

holding more water vapor,

do I think about the rivers overflowing their banks?

Do I think about the houses flooded in their paths?

No, I think about the evidence,

I think about the signal and the predictions coming true,

and I think this is what climate change looks like.

But yet you will not hear me tonight

trying to convince you climate change is a serious issue

and we might want to do something about it.

I have given up.

I am here to talk about the science.

(Laughter)

(Applause)

I have to confess - confession -

that every few years I have my own doubts.

Every few years I think, "Dear, dear!

What if we are wrong?

What if we have missed something?"

And then my heart beats a little faster,

and I get very anxious.

I lock myself in my office,

I pull out all of the data,

and I look at the map:

where is the warming?

Europe, America, Africa, Asia, Australia,

the land station,

the ocean observation,

the satellite data -

snow and ice are melting,

tropical species are moving polewards and up the mountain,

the Arctic is melting right in front of our eyes,

coastal waves are rising,

the water cycle is speeding up so much the salinity of the ocean is changing.

"But why?" I ask myself.

Do we understand the processes?

Yes -

physics of greenhouse gas is well known.

Is the warming unprecedented?

Yes -

faster than anywhere in the recent temperature reconstructions.

Has the hypothesis been tested?

Do the numbers match?

Yes.

Take the 20 most sophisticated models around the world,

and they can only reproduce the observations

when they consider the increase in greenhouse gases from human activities;

not only this

but all of the warming trend is caused by human activities,

not the little wiggles -

and yes, we will still have cold spells occasionally -

but the trend, all of it.

And then I ask myself the killer question:

"Is there any other reasonable explanation?" -

please, people, do come up with another reasonable explanation.

(Laughter)

And yes, we monitor the sun, and it is not getting brighter.

(Laughter)

And yes, there are natural cycles,

and this is not what they look like.

This looks like climate change

driven by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activity -

voila!

And then I can relax.

(Laughter)

But I am not always this anxious.

There are also perks from being a scientist.

When I discovered my anomaly,

I had a moment of fame,

or maybe infamy, I should say.

So the future Prime Minister then

summons me in his office to explain myself.

So I go to Westminster with a colleague of mine,

me with a printout of my anomaly

and he with a piece of ice in a thermos -

pure 100,000-year-old ice

extracted from the depth of Antarctica

by my colleague Rambo of the British Antarctic Survey.

I could not believe it.

Everyone was mesmerized by this piece of ice.

It pops like Rice Krispies.

(Laughter)

This is what old ice does.

It pops -

little pops of old air that Rambo measures in his laboratory.

And this is how we know how much CO2 was in the air then

and how unusual our atmosphere has become today.

It was magical, the ice bit.

So, as soon as we get out, I ask Rambo,

"What happens to this ice now?"

And he goes, "Uh, it's going to melt,"

(Laughter)

with the "Are you really a scientist?" look on his face.

(Laughter)

"What? When?"

I grab the thermos and run.

Norwich - I don't know if you know where Norwich is.

Norwich - that is Nor-wich,

but we don't actually say the w -

Norwich.

(Laughter)

Literature, full of exceptions;

physics, predictable.

(Laughter)

So, Norwich, East Anglia,

the end of the road.

(Laughter)

I call my husband,

"Meet you home at five.

Get all the kids together.

(Laughter)

Don't ask any questions.

(Laughter)

Buy orange juice. Buy gin and tonic."

(Laughter)

Longest train ride ever.

I do not want to open this thermos.

But by the time I reach Ipswich, I cannot resist any more.

I have a little peek.

Ipswich - did you hear?

Ips-wich - wich -

(Laughter)

just to be different from Norwich.

(Laughter)

So eventually, finally, I get home,

pull my much-cherished atlas of the world's ocean,

open the Antarctica page,

put my finger on Dome C,

and say, "Children, this is priceless."

I open the thermos, and there it is, cracking away.

We all lean forward, all five of us, forehead to forehead,

and we breathe in pure 100,000-year-old air -

(Inhales)

and then we break the ice into ice cubes and drink the best gin and tonic ever.

(Laughter) (Applause)

Orange juice for the children.

(Laughter)

Where was I? Warwick, Warwick.

So I hear there should be a few students from Warwick University here tonight.

(Audience) Whoo!

Huh? Huh?

So Warwick.

That is an interesting one, Warwick.

(Laughter)

Why not War-wick?

Or ...

Orick?

(Laughter)

Ork, ork, ork,

(Laughter)

like the emperor penguin from Antarctica.

It's nice to work in a university.

I don't know if you have noticed,

but every scientist competes to be the greatest.

Physicists boast of gravitational waves;

biologists, of gene manipulation;

engineers, sending Tesla into orbit.

I hear a lot "Technology will save us."

Who is that, Technology?

Who do you trust to save us?

Take me, for example.

You can trust me, I hope,

but would you trust me to save you?

(Laughter)

And the engineers - between you and I -

(Laughter)

shall we trust the engineers to save us?

(Laughs)

Why is it, I wonder,

now we have beautiful electric cars,

almost as cheap as petrol cars,

way smarter -

they make no noise,

they pollute very little,

they almost drive themselves -

why is it that emissions from transport worldwide

is one of the biggest sources of emissions

and in this country they are going up?

It is because it is not the engineers who will save us.

Technology will not save us when it comes to climate change;

technology is already there!

We are just not smart enough to see it and not smart enough to use it.

Take Wi-Fi.

I completely missed it.

Here I am, working in former East Germany.

There is this guy there, the head of the IT department.

I don't know about you, but I don't ever speak to IT people.

(Laughter)

IT people,

they have all the data but no name -

all called IT.helpdesk.

(Laughter)

But the head of the IT department, I have to talk to him.

I have to talk to him once a year because we are born on the same day.

(Laughter)

They know these things, IT people; they have all the data.

So on D-day, every year, unconsciously, we look for each other.

One year I see him in the distance.

We approach.

I go, "Congratulations, Bertram. Congratulations, Corinne" -

this is what they say in East Germany.

(Whispering) I think it’s congratulations for us still being alive.

(Laughter)

"So what's up since last year?" I go.

"Fabulous progress.

Wi-Fi is in our institute," he says.

"Wi-Fi - you can read email in the corridor."

"Wi-Fi? OK. See you next year."

Typical IT conversation.

I totally missed it.

It took me years to realize what Wi-Fi was going to do for us -

connecting individuals with the rest of the planet everywhere.

I did not see it

even when it was right there in front of my eyes.

People ask me all the time,

What do I do to solve climate change? How do I solve climate change?

Me, personally.

I know that for the warming of the planet to stop,

our emissions need to go down to zero,

not a little bit here and there

but zero,

across all of the sectors of the economy,

through all of the activities that you and I do every day.

That means a complete transformation of the way we use energy

to move away entirely from fossil fuel.

And still, people, I have given up.

I will not try to convince you that climate change is serious.

I have given up

because you need to reach your own conclusions.

You need to decide for yourself.

We do not teach gravity at school by showing a number on a piece of paper.

We take the apple,

we climb up the tree,

and we let it fall -

and here is gravity.

You are completely free.

I will not confront you,

I will not make you feel guilty,

but I will not stay still and do nothing about climate change.

This is what I do.

I am the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave

going around in circles endlessly.

I nudge you,

I repeat myself,

I show my anomaly,

I show my temperature data,

I speak your language, "Ork, ork."

(Laughter)

And every time I do this,

I explain why it is

that I have reached my own conclusions about climate change,

and then I walk away.

And before I walk away, though,

I will ask you to do one thing,

a little homework.

It's not in the exam.

(Laughter)

I know people that secretly - many of you -

already act on climate change, secretly.

I think it would be very good

if we could raise the voice of environmental problems

one notch.

So therefore, I would like to ask you

to consider not only to do what you do secretly

but to broadcast it a little bit -

not boast, no, no, no - broadcast.

For example, you could say,

"I recycle this plastic bottle because I do not like to waste,

also because I have seen Blue Planet II

and I cried when the turtle meets the plastic bag."

You could say,

"I cycle to work because it is good for me and good for the planet."

For example, you could say,

"I eat meat-free today because it is good for me

and good for the planet and good for the animal."

And this is when your entire circle of influence

made and combined with all the leaders and laggards among us

starts moving in one direction.

This is when it becomes so normal

to deal with climate change in our everyday life

that our understanding of what is possible and what not

changes entirely.

This may not seem like very much,

yet I am quite convinced that before I die,

we will recycle everything.

I am quite convinced that before I die,

we will no longer eat animals.

I am quite convinced that before I die,

we will breathe pure air in the heart of our cities,

and before I die,

I will see the end of this nonsense

of environmental destruction which we are doing today.

And this will not be thanks to technology or science or IT;

it will be thanks to you,

and you,

and you,

and I will have nothing to do with it.

I have a mountain of data sitting on my shoulders,

and yet I feel so powerless.

I will not save anybody.

I rely completely on you -

completely.

Thank you.

(Applause) (Cheers)