Climate Change

Summary

The lecture discusses the urgency of addressing climate change, emphasizing human-induced global warming and its devastating impacts. It highlights the record-breaking temperatures of 2023, the rapid increase in heat-related deaths, and Europe's vulnerability. The presenter reviews data from NASA and the EU Commission, illustrating the dramatic rise in global temperatures and CO2 emissions. The talk concludes by underscoring the economic and ecological challenges of combating climate change and the potential for business opportunities in green transitions.

Takeaways

• 🌍 Climate change is a long-term shift in average weather patterns, leading to observable effects on Earth's climate.
• 🔥 The primary driver of recent climate change is human activity, especially the burning of fossil fuels, which increases greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
• 📈 Global average surface temperatures have risen significantly, with a rapid increase in the last few decades.
• 🌡️ 2023 was a record-breaking year for global temperatures, marking the first time all days were over 1 Centigrade warmer than the pre-industrial period.
• 🏔️ Climate change impacts are not limited to temperature rise; they include extreme weather events like wildfires and heatwaves, causing significant damage and loss of life.
• 🌐 Europe is particularly vulnerable to climate change, being the fastest warming continent and experiencing heat-related mortality spikes.
• 📊 The global average surface temperature has been relatively stable for the last 10,000 years, but recent human activity has pushed it to levels not seen for at least 100,000 years.
• ⏱️ The challenge of climate change is compounded by the mismatch between the urgency of action and the slow response times of human, political, and economic systems.
• 🌳 Climate change can lead to mass extinction and significant biodiversity loss, with irreversible impacts if not addressed promptly.
• 💸 Addressing climate change requires a massive financial investment, estimated to be between $100 trillion to $300 trillion by 2050, a cost that underscores the scale of the challenge.

Q & A

What is the definition of climate change according to NASA?

Climate change is a long-term change in the average weather patterns that have come to define Earth's local, regional, and global climates. These changes have a broad range of observed effects and are driven by human activities, particularly fossil fuel burning, which increases heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in Earth's atmosphere.

How does the burning of fossil fuels contribute to climate change?

The burning of fossil fuels increases the levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere, which raises Earth's average surface temperature.

What are some natural processes that can contribute to climate change?

Natural processes that can contribute to climate change include internal variability like cyclical ocean patterns such as El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and external forcing such as volcanic activity and changes in the sun's energy output.

What was the global temperature record like in 2023 according to the script?

In 2023, global temperatures smashed records, with each vertical stripe in the 'Stripes' campaign representing a year, where blue indicates cooler than average and red indicates hotter than average. The trend showed a significant rise in global average surface temperatures.

What were the consequences of the heatwave in Europe during the summer of 2022?

The heatwave in Europe during the summer of 2022 led to approximately 60,000 premature deaths due to heat-related mortality.

Why is Europe particularly at risk to rapidly growing climate risks?

Europe is not prepared for rapidly growing climate risks and is the fastest warming continent in the world, according to a paper by the EU Commission in 2024.

What does the Paris Agreement aim to limit in terms of global temperature rise?

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with an effort to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

What does the 'P climatic curve' represent in the script?

The 'P climatic curve' represents the estimated global average surface temperature for the last 500 million years.

How much time do we have according to the script to clean up the carbon dioxide we've dumped into the atmosphere?

The script suggests we have about one generation's time to clean up the carbon dioxide we've dumped into the atmosphere.

What are some reliable sources for carbon data mentioned in the script?

Some reliable sources for carbon data mentioned in the script are the Global Carbon Project, Global Carbon Budget, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

What is the estimated cost to battle climate change according to the script?

The estimated cost to battle climate change is between $100 trillion and $300 trillion globally before the year 2050.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Climate Change: The Urgency and Impact

The paragraph discusses the critical issue of climate change, emphasizing the long-term changes in Earth's weather patterns caused by human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels. It highlights the definition of climate change from NASA and the overwhelming evidence that these changes are driven by human actions. The paragraph also addresses the natural processes that contribute to climate change, such as El Nino and volcanic activity, but stresses that these are overshadowed by human impact. The lecture series aims to educate on the causes and effects of climate change, using data such as the global temperature record to illustrate the rapid increase in Earth's average surface temperature. It also mentions the real-world impacts, including extreme weather events like fires in Maui and heat-related deaths in Europe, underscoring the global and immediate nature of the problem.

05:02

📈 Global Warming Trends and European Vulnerability

This section delves into the global warming trends, using graphs and data to demonstrate the significant rise in Earth's average surface temperature. It points out that 2023 was an exceptionally hot year, with all days being over 1 degree Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial period. The paragraph also discusses the particular vulnerability of Europe, which is not only unprepared for the rapidly growing climate risks but is also the fastest warming continent. The EU Commission's report is cited, indicating that Europe's lack of preparedness and the high death toll due to heatwaves underscore the urgency of addressing climate change. The speaker also presents a long-term perspective by comparing current temperatures with those of the past 500 million years, highlighting the unprecedented nature of the current warming period.

10:07

🔥 The Challenge of Reducing Emissions

The focus of this paragraph is on the challenge of reducing CO2 emissions to mitigate climate change. It presents data on the cumulative CO2 emissions since the industrial era and the rate at which we are approaching critical temperature thresholds. The speaker explains that even if all emissions were to cease immediately, the effects of past emissions would continue to impact the climate for some time. The paragraph also addresses the difficulty of scaling down emissions by 90%, which is necessary to avoid surpassing the 1.5-degree Celsius limit. The speaker mentions the importance of reliable data sources for understanding the scale of the problem and the potential solutions, such as the Global Carbon Project and the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The paragraph concludes with a discussion of the psychological and political challenges associated with addressing climate change on the necessary timescale.

15:08

💸 The Economic and Ecological Costs of Climate Change

In this paragraph, the speaker discusses the economic and ecological implications of climate change. It highlights the long-term planning challenge, comparing human and political timescales with the slow processes of climate change, such as glacier melting. The concept of the 'tragedy of the commons' is introduced to explain why individual actions alone cannot solve the problem, emphasizing the need for collective action and policy interventions like carbon pricing. The paragraph also addresses the ecological consequences of climate change, including mass extinction and biodiversity loss. It concludes with a discussion of the financial cost of combating climate change, citing estimates from Barclays Investment Bank that suggest investments in the range of $100 trillion to $300 trillion will be needed by 2050. Despite the daunting figures, the speaker ends on a hopeful note, suggesting that such large-scale investment could create significant business opportunities.

Keywords

💡Climate Change

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. It is primarily driven by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, which increase heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The video emphasizes that climate change is not a natural fluctuation but a human-induced alteration of Earth's climate system, with observable impacts such as rising global temperatures.

💡Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse gases are gases in the atmosphere that trap heat, leading to the greenhouse effect. The video mentions that the increase in these gases, particularly carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, is a major driver of climate change. This contributes to the warming of Earth's surface, which is a central theme of the lecture.

💡Global Temperature Records

Global temperature records refer to the highest average temperatures recorded worldwide. The script discusses how 2023 broke these records, indicating a significant and rapid increase in Earth's temperature. This serves as a stark example of the immediate and measurable effects of climate change.

💡Heat-Related Mortality

Heat-related mortality refers to deaths caused by excessive heat, often due to heatwaves. The video cites a scientific paper showing that approximately 60,000 people in Europe died prematurely due to a heatwave in 2022. This term is used to highlight the severe and direct impact of climate change on human life.

💡Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is an international treaty aimed at combating climate change by limiting global warming. The video mentions the 1.5°C limit from the agreement, which was reached in 2023, underscoring the urgency of the climate crisis and the need for immediate action.

💡Cumulative CO2 Emissions

Cumulative CO2 emissions refer to the total amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere over time. The video discusses how these emissions have contributed to the warming of the planet and are a key factor in surpassing the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement.

💡EU Commission

The EU Commission is the executive branch of the European Union, responsible for proposing legislation and implementing decisions. The video references a report by the EU Commission that states Europe is the fastest warming continent and unprepared for the growing climate risks, highlighting the regional implications of climate change.

💡El Nino

El Nino is a climate pattern that leads to warming of the surface of the eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting weather worldwide. The video suggests that the next El Nino event could push global temperatures beyond a peak last seen 100,000 years ago, illustrating the potential for climate patterns to exacerbate existing warming trends.

💡Tragedy of the Commons

The tragedy of the commons is an economic theory that describes a situation where individual users acting independently deplete a shared resource, even when it is clear that it is not in anyone's long-term interest to do so. The video uses this concept to explain why market economies struggle to address climate change, as individual actors may not reduce emissions without collective action.

💡Mass Extinction

Mass extinction refers to a widespread and rapid die-off of species. The video connects climate change to potential mass extinctions and biodiversity loss, emphasizing that while some impacts are inevitable, action can be taken to mitigate the scale of these ecological disasters.

💡Investment in Green Transition

Investment in green transition refers to the financial resources allocated to shift towards sustainable practices and technologies. The video concludes by mentioning the enormous costs associated with combating climate change but also suggests that these investments can create business opportunities, framing the issue as both a challenge and an economic prospect.

Highlights

Climate change is a long-term change in average weather patterns defining Earth's climates.

Human activities, particularly fossil fuel burning, are the main drivers of climate change since the mid-20th century.

Natural processes like El Nino and volcanic activity also contribute to climate change.

Global temperature records were smashed in 2023, indicating a rapid increase in Earth's average surface temperature.

The impact of climate change is evident in events like the 2023 Maui fires and heat-related deaths in Europe.

Europe is the fastest warming continent and is unprepared for the growing climate risks.

2023 was the first year with all days over 1 Centigrade warmer than the pre-industrial period.

The current warming trend is expected to surpass temperatures not seen in at least the last 100,000 years.

Global average surface temperatures have been relatively stable for the last 10,000 years until recent human-induced changes.

The Paris Agreement's 1.5 Centigrade limit was reached in 2023, signaling the urgency of climate action.

Cumulative CO2 emissions since the industrial era have pushed us towards permanently exceeding 1.5 Centigrade.

Efforts to reduce emissions must be scaled up rapidly to prevent irreversible climate change.

High-quality climate data can be sourced from the Global Carbon Project and Copernicus Climate Change Service.

The tragedy of the commons economic term explains the collective difficulty in addressing climate change.

Climate change can lead to mass extinction and significant biodiversity loss.

Addressing climate change requires an estimated investment of $100 trillion to $300 trillion by 2050.

Despite the challenges, there are business opportunities in the green transition and addressing climate change.

Transcripts

we have spent seven

generation of dumping carbon dioxide

into the world's largest junkyard that

is our

atmosphere and now we have about one

generation time to clean it up any

volunteers welcome to follow my lecture

series and today we will talk about

climate

change we will have an overview of what

it's what it is about and what its

impacts

[Music]

are let's start with a definition of

climate change this definition comes

from NASA from the United States this is

a long one but I think that this

definition does not have any extra words

in it so let's try to concentrate on

every word

climate change is a long-term change in

the average weather patterns that have

come to Define Earth's local Regional

and Global climates these changes have a

broad range of observed effects that are

synonymous with a

term changes observed in Earth's climate

since the mid 20th century are driven by

human activities particularly fossile

fuel burning which increas Ines heat

trapping greenhouse gas levels in

Earth's atmosphere raising Earth's

average surface

temperature natural processes which have

been overwhelmed by human activities can

also contribute to climate change

including internal variability for

example cyclical ocean patterns like

elino linia and the Pacific decadal

oscillation and external forcing for

example volcanic activity changes in the

sun's energy output variations in

Earth's

orbit so the planet is warming and it is

not explained by any natural things nor

any external things such as volcanoes or

changes in the sun's activity it is

explained mostly by our own activity the

human

activity of course NASA here refers to

observations say let's see what kind of

impacts we have

had this one wo said that

2023 smashes Global temperature record

and you can see the stripes they are

from show you Stripes

campaign each stripe each vertical

stripe is a year and if that year was

cooler than average then that stri

stripe is blue and if that year was

hotter than average that stripe is red

if you look at those stripes then you

can really see that yes the global

average surface temperatures have risen

a great deal and the IT increase has

been quite fast during the last decades

so the planet is

warming what does it mean it's warming

it's numbers but does it have any real

impact well for example this one this is

from uh summer 2023 Maui

fires death toall hits 80 as officials

say rebuild efforts top 6

billion okay but that was during the

fires the actual death toll was higher

and the cost of course was also higher

and this happened in Maui that is in

Hawaii that is in the United States we

often have the tendency of thinking that

something bad happens in the global

South not where we are but it actually

happens in the western world as well but

okay this is the United States it's on

the other side of the globe so maybe we

don't need to worry about it let's

see this one is a scientific paper from

one of Nature's papers which means that

one from a very high-profile

paper heat related mortality in Europe

during the summer of

2022 doesn't sound very dangerous does

it not until you read the paper which

says that yes probably about 60,000

people died prematurely because of the

heat wve in

2023 if we had 300 planes crashing

around Europe I think we would have had

rather sizable headlines wouldn't we but

when we talk about climate well it was a

bit hard and some elderly people died

yes but not only elderly a lot of people

died and if you have been following the

news uh 2023 was actually hotter than

2022 so probably the death toll in 2023

was higher than in

2022 and let's get further the death

toll in 2024 I'm recording this in July

24 so I don't know but

if someone has been following the news

lately then it's been full of headlines

of of it being extremely hot uh close to

the southern European

countries so this is actually in Europe

also and

interestingly Europe is not prepared for

rapidly growing climate

risks and this paper says that we are

not prepared and we are at risk and

interestingly It also says that Europe

is the fastest warming continent in the

world whoops it didn't happen elsewhere

did

it this paper is not a paper by some

group of environmentalists this paper is

by the EU Commission in

2024 but let's have some numbers and

graphs because they're of course more

convincing than adjectives at least they

should be because numbers speak lower

than words at least they should speak

louder when we talk about environmental

things so

if you look at these curves if you look

at the curve on the left it gives the

global average surface temperature which

is averaged out so it has rolling mean

of 5 years and you can see that yes it

has been warming a lot there are little

bit of ups and downs but the trend is

very very clear for the last decades on

the right hand side you can have the

year to year uh data from a little bit

different data sources and if you look

at the year 20

203 then you can notice that yes it

actually reached the plus 1.5 CRA limit

which the politicians are talking about

because it is in the Paris agreement

doesn't look very good does it a little

glimpse of Hope of course is that there

is a lot of interyear variation which

means that next year and the year after

might be cooler or then

not Seth Burgess deputy director of the

Copernicus climate change service

said about this data that 2023 was an

exceptional year with climate records

tumbling like

dominoes okay what does it

mean is it that we just sort of Hit the

record high in our records that is in

the measurement history like for 150 or

200 years that doesn't sound too bad

does it no not only is 2023 the warmest

year on record it is also the first year

with all days over 1 Centigrade warmer

than the pre-industrial period

temperatures during

2023 likely exceed those of any period

in at least the last

100,000

years oh boy we are great we smashed a

record which has been there for 100,000

years well let's look at that record

because here we have the P climatic

curve this is the estimated global

average surface temperature for the last

500 million years we don't need to worry

about the left hand side because it has

that very old data uh please note that

the x-axis scale is constantly changing

so be careful with that let's start from

the right that is from today we see that

for the last 10,000 years the global

average surface temperature has been PL

pretty even which is to be expected

because uh the Ice Age sort of ended

10,000 years years ago and before that

it was a bit cooler and then we can see

that years in the Eman period at the end

of the emian period or close to the end

of the iian period we had a Peak at

about 100,000 years ago and that is what

samon Burgess was referring to so that

Peak 100,000 years ago was warmer than

what we have

today now interestingly as our globe is

warming up when we have El Nino which

heats the um Planet periodically maybe

every seven years next time or the next

time or the next time maybe 30 years

from now then the temperature will

surface that Peak and now if you look at

that graph when we get above that Peak

100,000 years ago when was last time as

hot as it will be around

2050 five freaking Mill milon years

ago go figure 5 million years ago we

have been able to accomplish all this

within seven generations of polluting

our atmosphere so we are talking about

really huge things we're not talking

about whether we're not talking about

whether it's exceptionally hot or wet

winter or summer or whatever we're

talking about global surface temperature

averages and one

more this is this the monthly data for

last about 80 years uh every curve there

represents one year and if you look at

the colors the old years are sort of

blue like 1940s 1950s and then it

becomes uh blue redder and redder so

they are encoded by those colors so the

colors don't represent temperatures they

represent years age of

data and if you look at that top curve

you can see that the last 12- month

period as of recording this video has

been by far the hottest in

record and really by far it's exceeded

1.5

Centigrades every single

month so now the Paris agreement 1.5

Centigrades doesn't sound very feasible

does it it doesn't mean that we wouldn't

need to struggle and we wouldn't need to

do everything we can to stop

development but now you can see the

magnitude of the problem and the speed

of

progress what causes it well yet another

curve the cumulative CO2 emissions to

the atmosphere from the dawn of the

industrial era that is around

1750 to uh 2022 so that's the dark area

so it's seems that we have been able to

push a lot of carbon dioxide and now

what is a lot if you look at the scale

it's gigatons gigaton is a billion tons

or a thousand million tons by the way

dur during this lecture course I'm using

the American way of saying billion when

I mean 10 to n so 9 zeros and trillion

when I mean 12 zeros be careful with

those it's easy to slip sort of three

digits but anyway we talk about gigatons

and we talk about thousands of

gigatons that's a lot so we have been

quite

productive and now that orange line

there represents the limit at which we

go permanently above 1.5 Centigrades so

with today's emission rate which is

depicted by the hatched area we will

surpass that limit in 20128 and there is

nothing we can do to to keep deep under

that limit because we can stop all our

emissions today or next year and because

actually the emission rate is increasing

not decreasing so we are accelerating it

means that most probably we are going to

smash the limit in 2027 2028 a couple of

years from

now this is the problem we have to very

rapidly stop the emissions or at least

scale them down by by 90% most probably

we will have to swoop up some carbon

dioxide from the atmosphere later on

there are Technologies but it's going to

be difficult at this point I would like

to say a few words about data

sources for carbon data uh there are a

couple of places where you can find very

good very granular uh very high quality

data uh one of them is the global carbon

project and its sister site which is

global carbon budget and they are

exactly what they say you have a lot of

information on emissions you have

information on how much we can emit

before we reach 1.5 Centigrades or 2

Centigrades and so on and then for the

observations uh Copernicus climate

change service

c3s they use a lot of satellite data and

they are associated with the European

Union but also they have a lot of

cooperation with for example ye East the

MWF European Center for medium weather

forecasting and so and so these are

scientifically sound sources for uh

getting climate data or car emissions

data so why is this so

difficult one of the things is time

scale nothing happens today nothing

happens next week nothing happens next

year our human biology is geared towards

where do we get our next meal whom do do

we mate with next and that sort of

things we are not very good at planning

decades or

centuries uh

before and that's one problem nothing

happens in a year things happen in

decades a lot happens in a decade but

then we have some very slow processes

like melting of glaciers which even if

we stopped all emissions today would go

on for maybe a, years years before

reaching some sort of

equilibrium an end state so that's one

thing time scale is difficult time scale

is difficult also from the political

perspective because the time scale of

politicians is usually about four years

um for natural reasons the time scale

for companies may be a quarter or 3

months or it might might be a couple of

years but seldom much longer so this is

a problem the time scale then another

huge problem is that this is a tragedy

of the Commons in the largest possible

scale tragedy of the commons is um an e

economic term uh coming back from the

19th century Britain where people had

their cattle on a common field a village

had a common field and everything went

well when you had say 10 cows on that

field you got a lot of milk and

everything was fine then someone got

rich and bought another cow you had 11

cows well that's a bit of a problem

because then the cows grazing there

didn't have enough grass they didn't

give that much milk then someone else

got rich and got another carow and you

had 12 cows and it was a rational move

for the new cow owners but actually

destroyed everything because then no one

got

milk and this is similar thing we all

should cut our emissions so that we all

would benefit but if I cut my emissions

and the others don't that one doesn't

then no one gets any benefits why would

I jump under the

bus because someone else would get a

benefit so it's a tragedy of the commons

and we know that market economy is not

going to fix the tragedy of the commons

it needs some guidance for example

pricing of externalities that is carbon

pricing but we will talk much more about

that later

on then one problem a biological or

ecological problem is that climate

change will lead to mass extinction it

will lead to huge biodiversity

loss and we can't do anything about it

but we can sort of adjust how huge so we

have to do a lot but then caring about

biodiversity is important but if we fail

to get these climate change things

sorted out then biodiversity will go out

of the window in any case and then

finally battling climate change requires

transactions that are very very very

extremely

expensive how expensive well this is one

estimate we would need to

invest an amount of money that is

globally ranging from 100 trillion to

$300 trillion

before year

2050 so that is actually you know 1 Z 0

and then 12 other zeros so one and 14

zeros or three and 14

zeros a couple of hundred million

million dollar and if you divide that by

25 years which we about have here then

we talk about 10 trillion 10 million

million dollar a year that's a huge

amount of money it's about what

maybe $1,000 per

person in the world per

year and this estimate does not again

come from any group of environmentally

concerned economists this comes from the

very well-known environmental agency

called barlay Investment Bank and if you

know any investment bankers you know

that they don't usually go with a flow

when it comes to softb values but if you

look at the link you see that it says

that green transition driving force

behind a radical economic reink so even

investment bankers who have to think

decades they realize that yes we'll have

to rethink a lot but

okay I want to end with sort of an

optimistic notion and of course that

optimistic notion is that if we have

something that we as the human need to

invest $1 trillion a year then there

will be a lot of business opportunities

and let's see how we can seize them see

you next time