2024/3/28【日経平均】反落📉為替介入より怖いアレ襲来⚡やはり権利付き最終売買日が天井だったのか？日本株の行方🤔

Summary

Today's Nikkei average fell, closing with a long upper shadow on the candlestick chart, indicating downward pressure. Despite temporary rebounds, the market experienced significant declines, influenced by factors like dividend adjustments and concerns over pension fund sell-offs. Key indicators, such as the Bollinger Bands and Ichimoku Cloud, suggest potential support levels but highlight ongoing market volatility. Foreign investors were net buyers, while individual investors sold off heavily. The market's future direction remains uncertain, with eyes on upcoming economic data and global market trends.

Takeaways

• 📉 The Nikkei average is currently falling, with a bearish candlestick pattern observed.
• 📊 The downward trend is being restrained by a downward-sloping blue 5-day moving average.
• 🔄 There has been a recent update to the lowest price, with a new low of 17,000 yen noted at one point, standing at 45,400 yen.
• 🚀 A gap-up occurred from the 20th to the 21st, with a window opening at a size of 450 yen, which has now almost been filled to 51,000.
• 🤔 There is a question of whether the current trend will continue to push lower or if there will be a rebound, with other indicators to be considered.
• 📌 The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are an important line to watch, with the middle band (25-day) not providing strong support.
• 📈 The 25-day moving average is currently at 31,961 yen, and there is a possibility of a rebound as it has previously acted as support.
• 📊 The management rate, as checked on the 25-day chart, is at 1.36%, indicating a potential for a rebound.
• 💼 Investment subject-specific buying and selling conditions show that overseas investors have bought forward, while individual investors have sold heavily in cash.
• 📉 There is a significant drop in the dividend drop section, with a difference of 594 yen, which is a considerable amount compared to the 264 yen deficit.
• 🗓️ There is a concern about the impact of rebalancing at the end of the month, which could lead to a significant drop in the market.

Q & A

What is the current status of the Nikkei average?

The Nikkei average is currently experiencing a decline, with a downward trend indicated by a long bearish shadow.

What is the significance of the 5-day moving average line in the script's context?

The 5-day moving average line is acting as a resistance, with the price being suppressed by it and moving downwards.

What was the lowest price mentioned in the script for the Nikkei?

The lowest price mentioned was 17,000 yen, which occurred at a certain point during the trading day.

What is the current gap up situation from last week as described in the script?

There was a gap up from 19 to 21, with the window opening at a size of 450 yen, which has now almost been filled up to 51,000.

What is the Bollinger Band indicator suggesting about the Nikkei's price movement?

The Bollinger Band indicator suggests a significant break from the upper band, indicating a potential change in the trend.

What is the current value of the 25-day moving average mentioned in the script?

The current value of the 25-day moving average is 31,962 yen.

What does the script suggest about the investment sentiment based on the trading activities?

The script suggests that there is a significant amount of selling by individual investors and that pension funds and trust banks are also selling, which might be causing the decline.

What is the concern regarding the GPIF's portfolio and its impact on the market?

The concern is that the GPIF's portfolio, which is heavily invested in domestic stocks, has significantly outperformed, leading to a large amount of selling pressure.

What is the Ichimoku Cloud indicator suggesting about the Nikkei's support and resistance levels?

The Ichimoku Cloud indicator suggests that the Nikkei has broken through the upper cloud, indicating potential resistance, and is now testing the middle cloud for support.

What is the significance of the dead cross formed by the MACD indicator in the script?

The dead cross formed by the MACD indicator is a bearish signal, suggesting that the Nikkei's downward trend may continue.

What is the script's mention of the potential impact of rebalancing on the market?

The script suggests that while rebalancing could cause a short-term drop in the market, it is not considered a long-term factor affecting the market's technicals.