Bitcoin BTC: When Will The Bull Run TOP? - NOT WHAT YOU EXPECT!

Summary

The video discusses the unique characteristics of the current bull market in cryptocurrencies, focusing on the ETF narrative and macro trends. It explores the possibility of an earlier market top based on the monthly chart RSI and the four-year cycle theory, which predicts a Bitcoin top in October 2025. However, recent deviations from these trends suggest a need for caution and a focus on reacting to market conditions rather than relying solely on predictions. The video emphasizes the importance of being prepared for various scenarios and adapting strategies accordingly.

Takeaways

• 📈 The current bull market in cryptocurrency exhibits unique characteristics, including the ETF narrative and macro trends.
• 🔄 The four-year cycle theory predicts that Bitcoin will top out around October 2025, based on historical patterns.
• 🤔 Despite its reliability, the four-year cycle is not guaranteed to work this time due to recent deviations in Bitcoin's price action.
• 💰 The money flow cycle from USDT to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins is a fundamental part of bull markets and should be monitored closely.
• 📊 Technical analysis, such as the monthly chart RSI, is crucial for determining exit strategies and identifying potential market tops.
• 🚀 Bitcoin's price has moved faster than expected, with a significant increase in trajectory after the halving, which is a deviation from previous cycles.
• 📈 Bitcoin has seen a 149% increase in the last 5 months, which is indicative of bull market price action.
• 🔄 The 18.6-year real estate economic cycle suggests a major economic collapse around 2025-2026, which could impact Bitcoin.
• 🤝 Diversifying predictions and strategies is advised due to the potential for the four-year cycle to be less reliable than in previous cycles.
• 🛑 A focus on reaction over prediction is recommended, as the market environment is changing and past trends may not be as applicable.
• 📚 The importance of education and community, such as joining a VIP group or enrolling in a trading course, is emphasized for navigating the market effectively.

Q & A

What are the unique characteristics of the bull market in cryptocurrency?

The bull market in cryptocurrency has unique characteristics such as the ETF narrative, macro trends from previous cycles like the four-year cycle theory, and the flow of cash from stablecoins like USDT into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and then into altcoins, triggering an altcoin season.

What is the significance of the four-year cycle theory in predicting Bitcoin's bull market top?

The four-year cycle theory is a trend based on Bitcoin's historical price movements, suggesting that Bitcoin tops out around October every four years, coinciding with halving events and election cycles. It has been a reliable trend since the first halving but may not be guaranteed to work in the future as market conditions evolve.

How does the speaker view the current deviation from the traditional four-year cycle in Bitcoin's price movement?

The speaker notes that Bitcoin has moved faster than expected, with a bull market occurring before the halving rather than after it. This deviation challenges the reliability of the four-year cycle and suggests that the market may be entering uncharted territory where traditional trends may not hold as strongly as before.

What is the 18.6-year real estate economic cycle theory mentioned in the script?

The 18.6-year real estate economic cycle theory suggests that there is a major economic collapse in traditional markets every 18 years, which also affects Bitcoin and the real estate market. The next collapse, according to this trend, is expected around 2025-2026, aligning with the four-year cycle's prediction for a Bitcoin top.

How does the speaker propose to approach the unpredictability of the current market cycle?

The speaker suggests focusing on reaction rather than prediction, emphasizing the importance of observing market trends and reacting to price actions in real-time rather than relying solely on historical trends that may not hold in the current market environment.

What is the significance of the monthly chart RSI in determining an exit strategy for Bitcoin?

The monthly chart RSI is significant as it has historically validated Bitcoin's price movements. The speaker uses the 67 level on the monthly chart RSI as a reference point for predicting a potential cyclical top. Historically, after breaking above 67 on the RSI, it has taken varying numbers of days (488 in 2013, 395 in 2017, and 365 in 2020) to reach a cyclical top.

What are the implications of the current bull market moving faster than the four-year cycle would have expected?

The faster movement indicates a potential weakening of the four-year cycle's reliability and suggests that the market may not follow the traditional patterns it has in the past. This requires traders to be more cautious and adaptable, focusing on market reactions and being prepared for the possibility of an earlier top than predicted by the four-year cycle.

What does the speaker mean by 'reacting to the market' rather than 'predicting the market'?

Reacting to the market means adjusting strategies and actions based on current market conditions and price movements, rather than trying to forecast future prices based on historical trends. This approach is more flexible and responsive to changes in the market, which can be particularly important when established trends may not be as reliable as they once were.

What is the speaker's current prediction for Bitcoin's top based on the four-year cycle?

The speaker's current prediction for Bitcoin's top based on the four-year cycle is around October 2025. However, they caution that this is not certain and that the traditional four-year cycle may be weaker than in previous cycles, so it's important to focus on market reactions and not solely rely on this prediction.

What are the key indicators the speaker suggests watching for signs of a market top?

The speaker suggests watching for a complete money flow cycle from stablecoins to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins, signs of exhaustion on macro charts, and reaching resistance levels on the monthly chart RSI as key indicators that the market top might be approaching.

What is the speaker's advice for traders given the uncertainties of the current market cycle?

The speaker advises traders to be cautious, to focus on reacting to market conditions rather than relying on predictions, and to be prepared to phase out of the market slowly if signs of a top are observed. This includes being alert to the complete playout of the money flow cycle, the length of the altcoin season, and reaching resistance levels on the RSI.