Spain Was a Warning

Economics Explained
4 Aug 202416:30

Summary

TLDRThe script delves into Spain's economic boom in the early 2000s, fueled by the housing market and Euro adoption, which led to a rapid increase in GDP and per capita income. However, the bubble burst due to over-borrowing and speculative practices, resulting in a prolonged economic downturn. The aftermath of the crisis is still felt today, with high unemployment and stagnant growth, serving as a cautionary tale for economies worldwide.

Takeaways

  • 📈 Spain experienced a significant economic boom in the early 2000s, with per capita output doubling in just six years, largely driven by the real estate market.
  • 🏢 The growth was fueled by international investment and the shared currency of the Eurozone, which made owning a part of Spain an attractive investment.
  • 💼 Employment in construction soared, with tradespeople in high demand, leading to a period of speculative exuberance and unsustainable debt levels.
  • 💔 The global financial crisis and the Eurozone crisis brought the Spanish boom to a sudden halt, leaving the economy in a weakened state for nearly two decades.
  • 📉 Unemployment, especially among the youth, remains high, and the economy has struggled with stagnated growth and persistent debt.
  • 🏠 Despite the economic downturn, the housing market did not become more affordable for average people, highlighting the lasting impact of the bubble.
  • 🤔 The script poses questions about the lessons learned from Spain's economic roller coaster and whether other economies are at risk of similar fates.
  • 🌐 Spain's integration into the European Economic Community and later the European Union, along with the adoption of the Euro, had both benefits and costs for the country's economy.
  • 🏦 The real estate bubble was exacerbated by cheap credit, tax breaks, and a lack of oversight, leading to a surge in borrowing and construction.
  • 📊 Fiscal decentralization in Spain meant that the central government had little involvement in the borrowing process, masking the true extent of the country's debt.
  • 🚨 Warning signs were present but overlooked, including high levels of debt, manipulated property valuations, and a reliance on a single sector for economic growth.

Q & A

  • What was the main factor contributing to Spain's economic growth in the early 2000s?

    -The main factor contributing to Spain's economic growth in the early 2000s was the rapid development in the real estate market, fueled by a belief in continued growth, international investment in a shared currency, and policies that made working conditions comfortable and rewarding.

  • How did the introduction of the Euro impact the Spanish real estate market?

    -The introduction of the Euro made transactions easier and cheaper, which, along with low-interest rates provided by Spanish banks, acted as a catalyst for the property market, leading to aggressive building booms and soaring house prices.

  • What role did tax breaks play in the Spanish real estate boom?

    -Tax breaks played a significant role in the real estate boom by decreasing the user cost of ownership, making Spain an attractive investment opportunity. These included non-taxation on imputed rents, untaxed capital gains, mortgage interest payment deductions, and deductions for payments on the principle from personal income tax.

  • Why was the Spanish central government unable to foresee the economic crisis?

    -The Spanish central government was unable to foresee the economic crisis due to fiscal decentralization, where borrowing processes were handled by autonomous regions rather than the central government. This, along with reduced legal barriers to investment from other EU countries, hid the growing bubble from central oversight.

  • What was the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) and the Eurozone crisis on Spain?

    -The GFC and the Eurozone crisis put an end to Spain's debt-fueled growth, leading to a prolonged economic downturn with high unemployment, stagnated economic activity, and struggles with debt that the country is still dealing with almost two decades later.

  • How did the Spanish government's fiscal decentralization policy contribute to the economic bubble?

    -Fiscal decentralization allowed for borrowing to occur at the regional level without central oversight, leading to massive debt accumulation in the real estate sector that went unnoticed until it was too late.

  • What was the role of regional savings banks, known as 'Cajas', in the Spanish housing bubble?

    -The regional savings banks, or 'Cajas', played a significant role in the housing bubble by heavily investing in the real estate sector with the hope of profit, which contributed to the aggressive building boom and the eventual crash.

  • How did the manipulation of the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio contribute to the housing crisis in Spain?

    -Banks manipulated the LTV ratio by calling appraisal companies to artificially lower the value of homes, allowing them to provide mortgages that were riskier than policy allowed, leading to a high number of non-performing loans when the bubble burst.

  • What are some of the long-term effects of the economic crisis on Spain's economy and society?

    -Long-term effects include a GDP that has not recovered to pre-crisis levels, high unemployment rates especially among the youth, a decrease in average annual salaries compared to pre-crisis levels, and a brain drain of highly trained individuals.

  • How does the script suggest that the lessons from Spain's economic roller coaster might be relevant to other economies?

    -The script suggests that other economies might be in more compromised positions than Spain was in 2007, with examples like Australia and Canada having higher household debt-to-GDP ratios. It warns that if a housing crash could happen in Spain, it could feasibly happen elsewhere, emphasizing the importance of not assuming it can't happen to them.

  • What is the significance of the 'brain drain' mentioned in the script in the context of Spain's economic challenges?

    -The 'brain drain' refers to the emigration of highly trained and intelligent individuals from Spain, which exacerbates the nation's economic challenges by reducing the pool of problem solvers and innovators needed for economic recovery and growth.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Spain's Economic Boom and the Real Estate Bubble

The script opens by setting the scene in 2006, highlighting Spain's economic prosperity and the rapid growth of its real estate market. The country's per capita income was predicted to surpass Germany's, and the government enacted laws to enhance working conditions. The Eurozone facilitated international investment, making Spanish real estate an attractive investment. However, the global financial crisis (GFC) and the Eurozone crisis led to a sharp economic downturn, leaving Spain's economy in a weakened state nearly two decades later, with high unemployment and stagnant economic activity. The script raises questions about the causes of Spain's economic rise and fall and whether other economies today are at risk of a similar fate.

05:03

🏗️ The Spanish Housing Market and Economic Policies

This paragraph delves into the factors that led to Spain's economic bubble, starting with the immigration-driven interest in the housing market in 1998. The government's focus on construction as a means to combat unemployment was intensified by the adoption of the Euro, which facilitated cheap credit and foreign investment. Tax breaks in the real estate sector made Spain an attractive investment destination. However, the central government's lack of oversight, due to fiscal decentralization, and the regional banks' aggressive lending practices, contributed to a massive accumulation of debt. The paragraph also discusses the disconnect between the central government and the autonomous regions, which obscured the true extent of Spain's economic vulnerability.

10:05

💔 The Bursting of the Spanish Real Estate Bubble

The third paragraph examines the collapse of the Spanish real estate bubble, detailing the role of manipulated loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and the fraudulent practices of appraisal companies. It discusses how banks circumvented risk management policies by inflating property values to provide high-risk mortgages. The paragraph also highlights the overestimation of housing demand, leading to an excess of constructed homes and a subsequent crash in the property market. The consequences of the bubble's burst are outlined, including the high debt levels, non-performing loans, and the long-term economic repercussions for Spain, which are still felt today.

15:08

🌐 Global Implications and Lessons from Spain's Crisis

The final paragraph reflects on the broader implications of Spain's economic crisis and draws parallels with current economic situations in other countries, such as Australia and Canada, which also exhibit high levels of household debt. It emphasizes the importance of learning from Spain's experience and the dangers of relying too heavily on one sector for economic growth. The paragraph concludes with a warning about the fleeting nature of 'fast money' and the need for prudent fiscal management to avoid similar economic downturns.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Spanish Economic Boom

The period of rapid economic growth in Spain from the early 2000s until the 2008 financial crisis. This boom was characterized by significant increases in GDP, low unemployment in certain regions, and a thriving real estate market. The video's narrative highlights how this period of prosperity was driven by speculative investment and eventually led to economic instability.

💡Real Estate Market

A central element in Spain's economic boom, where high demand for property led to soaring house prices and substantial investment. The video describes how the real estate market became a speculative bubble, with everyone from regular citizens to international investors seeking to capitalize on the growth, ultimately leading to the market's collapse.

💡Eurozone

The monetary union of European Union countries that have adopted the euro as their currency. Spain's integration into the Eurozone is discussed as a double-edged sword: it facilitated investment and economic growth, but also contributed to the speculative bubble due to low interest rates and easy credit.

💡Fiscal Decentralisation

The process in Spain where revenue collection and expenditure responsibilities were shifted from the central government to regional authorities. This system is highlighted in the video as a factor that obscured the true level of debt and financial risk in Spain, contributing to the severity of the economic crisis.

💡Global Financial Crisis (GFC)

The severe worldwide economic crisis that occurred in 2008, leading to the collapse of financial institutions, downturns in national economies, and widespread unemployment. The GFC is presented in the video as the event that burst Spain's economic bubble, revealing underlying financial vulnerabilities.

💡Unemployment

A major issue in Spain both before and after the economic boom. The video notes that despite periods of low unemployment during the boom, the country has struggled with high unemployment rates, especially among youth, since the crisis. This ongoing problem is a significant aspect of Spain's economic challenges.

💡Speculative Investment

Investments made with the hope of substantial gains but with high risk of loss. In Spain, speculative investments in real estate were a key driver of the economic boom, as described in the video. These investments were based on the belief in continued economic growth, which ultimately proved unsustainable.

💡Debt

The accumulation of borrowed money that needs to be repaid. The video discusses how both private and public debt in Spain soared during the economic boom, fueled by easy credit and speculative investments. The high levels of debt became unsustainable and contributed to the economic collapse.

💡Brain Drain

The emigration of highly trained and educated individuals from a country. Spain has experienced significant brain drain as a result of its prolonged economic difficulties, with many skilled workers leaving for better opportunities elsewhere. This exacerbates the country's economic woes by reducing the available talent pool.

💡Trading212

An investment platform mentioned in the video that offers tools for managing investments, such as high-interest savings and automated portfolios. The video uses Trading212 as an example of how modern investment tools can help manage financial futures, contrasting it with the mismanaged investments that led to Spain's economic problems.

Highlights

Spain's economy experienced incredible growth in the early 2000s, with per capita output doubling in just six years.

German economists predicted Spain would overtake Germany in per capita income within five years, making it a central European power.

Spain's regions achieved full employment, and the government passed laws to improve working conditions.

The Eurozone facilitated international investment, making real estate in Spain an attractive investment.

Real estate agents and tradespeople became rich due to high demand for housing construction.

The Spanish economy appeared to be a great investment due to increased GDP from construction and debt-fueled growth.

The global financial crisis and Eurozone crisis ended Spain's economic boom, leading to long-term economic struggles.

Spain's unemployment remains high, especially among the youth, and the housing market hasn't become cheaper for average people.

Spain's economy is a cautionary tale, prompting questions about whether we've learned from its experience.

Spain's economic roller coaster highlights the importance of managing investments wisely.

Spain's government joined the European Economic Community to secure a more profitable global position.

Adopting the Euro in 1999 brought costs and benefits, including easier trade and cheaper credit, but also loss of monetary sovereignty.

Spain's housing market boom was fueled by immigration and construction, supported by cheap credit and Euro adoption.

Spain's fiscal decentralization hid the true extent of debt, as only central government figures were considered.

Spain's regional savings banks played a significant role in the housing bubble by heavily investing in real estate.

Spain's economy appeared healthy due to aggressive building booms and investment, masking underlying issues.

Spain's central government had a pre-crisis plan for non-performance loans, but it was insufficient to handle the crisis.

Spain's housing bubble burst due to overestimation of housing needs and fraudulent practices in the mortgage system.

Other countries like Australia and Canada show similar warning signs of potential economic crises.

Spain's economy has yet to recover, with average salaries lower than before the crisis and high unemployment.

Spain's experience serves as a warning about the dangers of relying on one sector for economic growth and the risks of speculative bubbles.

Transcripts

play00:00

The year is 2006 and Spain is riding high. The economy has been experiencing incredible growth

play00:05

since the turn of the millennium with per capita output having more than doubled in just six short

play00:09

years. German economists are predicting in as little as five years Spain will overtake them in

play00:14

per capita income and Spain will become a central power in Europe. Certain regions of the country

play00:18

were achieving full employment and the government passed laws to make working conditions very comfortable

play00:22

and rewarding. The boom was fueled by a belief in the continued growth of the beautiful country and

play00:27

everybody wanted in on it. The Eurozone opened up international investment in a shared currency

play00:31

and the best way to own a bit of the Spanish success story was to own a bit of Spain. Buying a

play00:36

beach house in Marbella or a studio in Madrid was not a luxury, it was a savvy investment that could

play00:40

also be used to enjoy some time in the sun. Real estate agents were doing so much business that

play00:44

they became local celebrities and tradespeople were in such high demand to build enough houses

play00:48

to keep up it wasn't unusual to see a plumber driving a Bentley. This all became a self-fulfilling

play00:53

prophecy because as money poured into the country and people took on debt to get more exposure to

play00:57

the Spanish real estate market there was more need for construction which made GDP figures look great

play01:02

which in turn made the country look like a great investment. Of course it wasn't and the economic

play01:06

shocks of the GFC and the Eurozone crisis put a swift end to the debt fuel party and now almost

play01:11

two decades later the economy is still poorer than it was back in 2007. Unemployment remains high

play01:17

especially amongst the youth, broader economic activity has stagnated, the country still struggles

play01:21

with debt and perhaps worst of all this slowdown didn't even make the housing market that started

play01:25

this whole mess cheaper for average people. Spain is genuinely one of the scariest economies in the

play01:30

world because while it's easy to look back at this speculative exuberance for the early 2000s

play01:34

and conclude with the benefit of hindsight that it was inevitably destined for failure the country

play01:38

in many ways had a less over leveraged economy back then than a lot of major nations do today.

play01:43

If Spain is a cautionary tale it's probably worth asking if we've really learned anything from it.

play01:48

So what drove the rapid growth of the Spanish economy? What really caused it to all come crashing

play01:53

down? Why has it stayed down for so long? And finally are there major economies in the world

play01:58

today that are really in more compromised positions than Spain in 2007? As we reflect on

play02:03

Spain's economic roller coaster from booming growth to sudden downturns it reminds us of

play02:07

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play03:03

today. There are a lot of economic roller coasters in Spanish economic history. From their overuse of

play03:08

gold during colonization to their exclusion from the US Marshall plan revival to early liberalization

play03:13

policies there's plenty to discuss when it comes to Spain and its financial history. But to get to

play03:17

the bottom of the country's present crisis it would be best to start off with its apparent success

play03:21

story kicking off in the 1990s. At the time the country had a higher unemployment rate that wouldn't

play03:26

budge. The Spanish government started making moves to secure a potentially more profitable seat at

play03:30

the progressively globalized table and they felt the best way to do this was to join the European

play03:34

Economic Community or EEC. This seat planted in 1986 was initially underwhelming as Spain's GDP

play03:40

per capita remained about 72% of the average EEC member. However after the enduring a global

play03:45

recession in the early 90s the government successfully managed to curb inflation and

play03:49

managed to budget enough to start a steady decline in unemployment by the middle of the decade.

play03:53

Almost in tandem with these changes the EEC was integrated into the first pillar of the newly

play03:57

formed European Union in 1993 prompting Spain to be one of the first nations to adopt the Euro in

play04:01

1999. As is often the case with most massive geopolitical decisions like changing a nation's

play04:06

currency and joining a global aggregate this came with a number of costs and benefits.

play04:10

When an economy remains independent from outside arbitration there's a bit of flexibility that

play04:14

comes along with it, primarily total monetary sovereignty. If the currency needs to be devalued

play04:18

to boost exports and shrink trade deficits having a government capable of doing so on its own can

play04:22

expedite the process before things get out of hand. If they need to control interest rates to

play04:26

handle inflation, debts or unemployment they maintain that control within the country itself.

play04:31

Of course on the other hand there are plenty of pros to come along with a more integrated

play04:34

economic model especially among countries sharing the same continent. For starters sharing a currency

play04:38

like the Euro makes trade with neighbours a lot easier by simplifying price comparisons as well

play04:42

as helping individual businesses and their consumers find the best prices. Plus in most cases a shared

play04:46

currency is a stronger currency especially compared to the previous Spanish Preseta which was not

play04:51

notorious for its stability. With a huge network of countries keeping a currency relevant paying

play04:55

for imports becomes a lot easier and most importantly credit becomes much cheaper which

play05:00

depending on how it's handled can easily join the list of cons.

play05:03

Alright so how did this all play a role in what kicked off the Spanish bubble and how did this

play05:06

country grow on paper to the point of convincing almost everyone it was on its way to becoming the

play05:11

new Eurozone superpower. According to most economists the dramatic shift was first initiated

play05:16

in 1998 just a year before adopting the Euro. Banking on an immigration increase that started

play05:20

the same year Spain became very interested in the housing market more than it already was.

play05:25

With a wave of new people ready to gain citizenship the focus on constructing comfortable living

play05:28

spaces began to rise. This was seen as a positive development for the Spanish government because

play05:32

construction is a labour intensive occupation. One that could keep citizens employed for long

play05:37

periods of time and given the troubling history of Spanish unemployment it makes sense why Spain

play05:41

began to theorise that this could be a long term solution to the stubborn unemployment rates faced

play05:44

in the 20th century. At the peak of the construction boom one can find historical references of

play05:48

blue collar tradesmen driving luxury cars because their work was so in demand and the fuel on the

play05:53

fire of this boom was the Euro. Of course this is where the cheap credit comes in. With low interest

play05:57

rates provided by Spanish banks along with the Euro acting as a prime catalyst for transactions and

play06:01

low risk foreign exchange fluctuations the property market became a wellspring for those

play06:05

hoping to turn a profit. The interest in building houses was already favoured by Spain but the

play06:09

introduction of the Euro made development much faster and easier than ever before.

play06:14

It also didn't hurt in the eyes of both foreign and domestic investors that the Spanish government

play06:17

favoured tax breaks in the real estate sector. These policies decreased the user cost of ownership

play06:22

and made the country an incredibly attractive investment opportunity. There was non-taxation

play06:25

on imputed rents, the basically untaxed capital gains, the mortgage interest payment deduction

play06:30

and what truly set Spain apart from the other players at the time payments on the principle

play06:34

were also deductible from personal income tax. All of this with the economic growth model prioritising

play06:39

construction caused Spanish borrowing in the real estate market to reach jaw-dropping heights.

play06:43

So why didn't the Spanish central government see the writing on the wall and why didn't the rest

play06:46

of the global investors buying into this give it a second thought? After all debt was climbing

play06:50

dramatically and in hindsight economic indicators were screaming trouble. Well first it's important

play06:55

to understand that people now look at this from a post-crisis lens. It's kind of like how most

play06:59

experts saw Bernie Madoff as the Wizard of Wall Street only now coming out to say that everyone

play07:03

should have been wiser. That said there are other major elements that hid the growing bubble,

play07:07

one being the unique way the Spanish government and its economy function. The official theory is

play07:11

fiscal decentralisation, the process of shifting the responsibilities of revenue collection and

play07:16

expenditure execution from the central to sub-national authorities. What this means is

play07:20

that the Spanish central government played little to no role in the borrowing process like other

play07:23

countries in the EU. In fact as far as the world was concerned at the time Spain's debt was

play07:27

incredibly low because most economic figures only look at the central government and take no

play07:31

account of provincial government branches. In an effort to guarantee the autonomy of the regions

play07:36

that made up the country the Spanish government set up a constitution promoting administrative

play07:39

division activated in the late 1970s. The nation is made up of 17 autonomous regions including the

play07:45

archipelago of the Canary Islands and the Atlantic Ocean and the archipelago of the

play07:48

Balyric Islands and the Mediterranean Sea as well as two autonomous cities in northern Africa.

play07:52

Of course it was clear that construction firms, investors and regular people that just wanted

play07:56

to buy a home were doing all the borrowing but what wasn't clear was who exactly was doing the

play07:59

lending. This is where the whole issue of regional autonomy comes in. For a country like Spain a lot

play08:04

of tax collection, health costs and educational funding is not operated by a central authority

play08:08

but rather it's respective autonomous regions. Moreover before the 2008 crisis there were approximately

play08:12

45 different regional savings banks known as Cajas scattered across the country. Most of

play08:17

them went all in on real estate with high hopes of making it big. This disconnect is one of many

play08:21

that allowed Spain to actually report a budget surplus when things were running smoothly and for

play08:25

a time the world just didn't notice. Again with EU membership there was also reduced legal barriers

play08:30

to investment coming from other European countries so it wasn't long before investments from wealthy

play08:34

countries like Germany, the UK and France began to pour in. This chain reaction fueled an aggressive

play08:38

building boom which made the country's economy look great which in turn made investors even more

play08:43

excited about the economy's growth which made them invest more money which made the country's

play08:46

economy look even better. At its peak more than 12.5% of the Spanish workforce was involved in

play08:51

construction. Spain alone managed to create more than half of the new jobs in the European Union

play08:55

creating more houses than Germany, France and the UK combined. Credit began to explode and

play09:00

house prices soared by 71% in just five short years between 2003 and 2008 and here's where

play09:06

things get really interesting. Spain did in a small way anticipate the possibility of a fallout.

play09:11

After joining the Eurozone Spain central government had a team working around the clock

play09:15

collaborating with banks to set aside money for potential non-performance loans when things were

play09:19

profitable. This was very abnormal in the pre-crisis west and the official record indicates that they

play09:23

set aside about 35 billion euros but here's the problem it wasn't nearly enough to save the country

play09:29

from what was to come not even close. So what were the key issues here? What really caused it all to

play09:34

come crashing down? Well to start like any good relationship communication is key and that's

play09:38

an area where Spain was sorely lacking. Immigration was one of the primary initial motors for housing

play09:43

development and a reason to put many to work on construction projects as quickly as possible.

play09:47

It turns out that Spain overshot their estimates for exactly how many homes were needed and that's

play09:51

a bit of an understatement. Putting it into perspective by 2006 the country had constructed

play09:55

more than 800,000 homes or the house about 200,000 families. To add to this chaos some participants

play10:01

in the Spanish housing bubble didn't even go through the trouble of changing regulations to

play10:05

suit their needs they just lied. In a paper published by two professors Jose Maria Rea and

play10:09

Jose Garcia Maltova the two studied the nature of the Spanish mortgage system to understand house

play10:13

prices. They did this by looking at the loan to value ratio or LTV. This ratio is computed using

play10:18

the value between the mortgage which is given and the value of the house. Seems simple enough but

play10:23

there was a problem. The disconnect became more elaborate because this value was determined by

play10:27

outside speculators, appraisal companies. Their job was to provide pricing for the homes according

play10:31

to a set of characteristics and that's how it works according to the study. The Bank of Spain

play10:34

is estimated that an LTV equal or lower than 80% is a good mortgage because of the fact that 20%

play10:39

of the value of the house is already been paid. However the closer an LTV is to 100% the riskier

play10:44

the mortgage is and the higher the probability of not paying back the debt. If the bank was facing

play10:48

a mortgage with an LTV higher than 80% it was unlikely that the Bank of Spain would accept it.

play10:52

This is where Rea and Maltova made a gut wrenching discovery. Banks actually managed to give mortgages

play10:57

that were not following banking policy and here's how they managed to do this over and over again.

play11:02

If a financial worker noticed that a family had an LTV closer to or equal to 100% they would just

play11:07

call up the appraisal company and change the price of the house giving the home a lower LTV.

play11:11

According to these investigators the appraisal company raised the price of the house so the

play11:14

bank could give them the mortgage, the buyer could happily enjoy his or her new home and the

play11:18

Spanish bank was none the wiser. Of course this was possibly the most dangerous involuntary risk a

play11:22

regional bank or car park could make giving mortgages to clients that had no security with

play11:26

high price real estate manipulated by appraisers and financial institutions frankly too hungry to

play11:31

consider the consequences and amongst 80% of Spain's population as homeowners this all felt

play11:35

like a dream come true that is until the bubble finally burst. With poor data and incentivized

play11:40

deception everything finally came crashing down in the blink of an eye. By the time everything

play11:44

in the housing market imploded Spanish real estate debt equaled almost 50% of the country's GDP.

play11:49

Thousands of families were unable to pay their massive debts and since the homes were well into

play11:53

negative equity banks had no way to recoup their losses. The once seemingly bountiful flow of credit

play11:58

dried up almost immediately leaving speculative developers which were ubiquitous at the time to

play12:02

devolve into a large mass of non-performing loans. Needless to say that 35 billion euro nest egg

play12:07

didn't do too much. Now again this is all easy to see as a bit ridiculous with the benefit of

play12:11

hindsight but there are a lot of countries in the world today in arguably worse positions who have

play12:16

also fallen to the trap of assuming it can't happen to them. For example my own home of Australia

play12:21

now has a higher level of household debt to GDP than Spain did right before its generational crash

play12:25

accounting for 116.6% of the country's nominal GDP in March 2023 compared with Spain's all-time

play12:31

high of what now looks like a rather modest 85%. The increase in the Australian household debt to

play12:36

income ratio has been more pronounced than in most other countries rising from the bottom half of

play12:39

the distribution across advanced economies in the late 1980s to the top quartile by 2018.

play12:44

There are also the same key warning signs of generous tax policies for real estate investing,

play12:48

banks willing to look the other way to get a deal done, migration and field speculative mania and

play12:52

a self-assurance that just because we have nice beaches our home should be worth 15 times national

play12:56

income. Then there's Canada. As of the end of 2023 Canada's household debt to GDP ratio was

play13:02

estimated to be 104% which is again higher than Spain's ever was. There are also the same

play13:07

anecdotes in a lot of these modern economies about tradesmen making much more money than

play13:10

their professional counterparts with more training and real estate agents getting their own TV shows.

play13:15

Spain's meteoric house price rise in the early 2000s now almost looks relatively conservative

play13:19

compared to the house price increases experienced in these economies over the past five years and

play13:24

as nice as it would be to say that things turned out just fine for Spain the reality is that it

play13:28

is still dealing with the fallout of this crisis almost two decades later. Initially Spain did

play13:33

what many countries do when they're trying to revive their economy put simply when in doubt

play13:37

spend it out and spend they did spending more as a percentage of GDP on stimulus than any other

play13:41

European country. All of this would have probably been front page news for years if it weren't for

play13:45

another country stealing the spotlight with its own financial failures. Greece. For Greece in 2009

play13:51

the new government then disclosed that Greece's fiscal deficit was far higher than anyone thought

play13:55

one market started to lose confidence in Greece's economy and they became the new headline in many

play13:59

ways burying the cautionary tale of Spain's real estate for nearly two decades. Obviously this

play14:03

didn't suddenly nullify the Spanish problem for Spain itself just because the world's eyes

play14:07

looked away from the falling tree doesn't mean the Spanish people weren't still there to hear

play14:10

the sound of the fall themselves. There are a number of serious challenges the country still

play14:14

deals with to this very day. While most western nations took a beating at the start of the 2008

play14:19

housing crisis Spain's system was hit particularly hard and even though they managed to see a few

play14:23

years of growth their GDP still hasn't recovered from where it was in 2007. When the country was

play14:28

flying higher in the 90s annual salaries competed with the likes of France, Germany and the UK.

play14:32

However now it stands far lower than most other developed nations at 29,113 euros on average

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an annual income that is about 9 to 11 percent less than what they were experiencing before the

play14:43

crash. With a steady rise in debt and inflation the average Spaniard is worse off today than they

play14:47

were two decades ago. With increased international borrowing in the bailout of Spain's banks the

play14:51

nation was forced to modify the structure of all but two of the aforementioned 45 car cars

play14:55

referenced earlier in the video making it harder for people to access credit even to this day.

play14:59

Moreover its ties to the euro or once promising move for the financial stability removes much of

play15:03

Spain's ability to depreciate exchange rates. This in tandem with lower income saw what economists

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refer to as brain drain the emigration of highly trained intelligent people from a particular country

play15:12

which as it turns out doesn't bode well for a nation requiring problem solvers. The days of

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blue collar workers riding in sports cars are also a fading memory as unemployment remains higher

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than in most other European nations. As of April 2024 there's been an upward trend in fact the

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stats can be somewhat misleading as many of those deemed employed are actually just working small

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gigs to make ends meet with no promise of long term career opportunities. Of course it may be too

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late for Spain and the country will need to grow back slowly if it's to do it at all but for other

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countries there's always an opportunity to change these habits and this is where the message

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becomes crystal clear. With these common themes hopping up in other nations it's time for those

play15:46

to look at what Spain really is at least from an economics perspective. It's more than just a

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country with a struggling economy, astronomical youth unemployment, low growth and ironically

play15:54

high housing costs. It is in every sense of the word a warning. A warning that an economy cannot

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solve fiscal problems unilaterally with one sector assuming mass amounts of debt. A warning that

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excitement can eclipse rational judgement. A warning that if a housing crash like this can

play16:06

happen in Spain it can happen feasibly anywhere else. Fast money is exactly that. Fast money and

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it can disappear just as quickly or faster than it arrived. Now Spain's neighbour Portugal

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experienced a similar set of challenges but they're trying to rebuild their economy in a unique way

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that looks like it's working but hasn't been particularly popular. You should be able to

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click to that video on your screen now. Thanks for watching mate. Bye.

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الوسوم ذات الصلة
Economic GrowthSpanish CrisisReal Estate BubbleInvestment CautionEurozone ImpactHousing MarketDebt ManagementFinancial HistoryEU IntegrationConstruction BoomGlobal Economy
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