Why will future globalisation be so different | Richard Baldwin | TEDxLausanne

TEDx Talks

19 Sept 201813:57

Summary

TLDRThis talk challenges the traditional image of globalization as merely the exchange of physical goods, proposing a future where digital technology enables 'telework migration,' allowing services to be provided across borders. The speaker discusses the economic incentives and technological advancements, such as online freelancing platforms, machine translation, and advanced telecommunications, that are accelerating this shift. The rapid pace of digital progress, exemplified by the exponential growth in computing power, suggests that this new era of globalization is approaching faster than most anticipate, offering both opportunities and challenges for competitive and less competitive citizens alike.

Takeaways

🌐 Globalization is often visualized as cargo ships with containers, but the future of globalization will involve more than just physical goods.
😯 The speaker aims to change the perception of globalization and to stir a mix of anxiety and excitement about its future implications.
🛠 Globalization has historically been driven by the concept of arbitrage, where companies exploit differences in what countries are good at producing.
🚢 Shipping physical goods across borders has been easier than 'shipping' services due to the nature of services requiring the provider and buyer to be in the same place.
💡 Digital technology is changing the landscape by making it easier for services to be provided across borders, a phenomenon referred to as 'telework migration'.
🌟 The economic incentive for 'telework migration' is significant, with large salary differences between countries creating a push for service globalization.
🏡 Domestic telecommuting is expanding to a global scale, with companies arranging to hire foreign freelancers online, potentially reducing costs.
🌍 Online freelancing platforms like Upwork are facilitating the buying and selling of services globally, increasing the accessibility of foreign talent.
📚 Machine translation has improved drastically, making it easier for non-native speakers to participate in the global service market.
🤖 Advanced telecommunications, such as telepresence and telepresence robots, are creating virtual co-presence, further enabling global service provision.
📈 The pace of digital technology advancement, illustrated by the exponential growth in processing power, suggests that the shift to service globalization is happening faster than most expect.
🚀 While globalization presents opportunities for competitive individuals, it also brings challenges for those less competitive, prompting a dual sense of excitement and concern for the future.

Q & A

What is the traditional image of globalization that the speaker wants to change?
-The traditional image of globalization that the speaker wants to change is the mental picture of a cargo ship with lots of containers, which represents the movement of physical goods across borders.
What does the speaker suggest is the fundamental nature of globalization?
-The speaker suggests that the fundamental nature of globalization is arbitrage, where companies exploit differences in what countries are especially good at making and sell those goods elsewhere.
Why has globalization historically been more about goods rather than services?
-Globalization has been more about goods than services because it's easier to ship physical goods across borders than it is to ship services, which often require the service provider and buyer to be in the same place at the same time.
How is digital technology changing the nature of globalization?
-Digital technology is changing the nature of globalization by making it easier for people to perform services across borders, thus enabling 'telework' or 'tell-a-migration', which was previously difficult due to technical barriers.
What are the economic incentives for tell-a-migration according to the speaker?
-The economic incentives for tell-a-migration include the significant salary differences across countries, which make it profitable for companies to hire foreign freelancers who can perform services remotely at a lower cost.
What are the four factors the speaker identifies as enabling tell-a-migration?
-The four factors enabling tell-a-migration are domestic telecommuting, online freelancing platforms, machine translation, and advanced telecommunications such as telepresence and telepresence robots.
How does the speaker describe the impact of Moore's Law on digital technology and globalization?
-The speaker describes the impact of Moore's Law on digital technology and globalization by illustrating the exponential growth in processing speed of devices like iPhones, which has accelerated the pace at which digital technology is transforming the possibilities for globalization.
What is the significance of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 10 comparison in the script?
-The comparison between the iPhone 6 and iPhone 10 demonstrates the rapid pace of technological advancement, showing that the progress made in processing speed between 2015 and 2017 was greater than that between 1969 and 2015.
How does the speaker suggest that future globalization will affect different groups of people?
-The speaker suggests that future globalization will provide more opportunities for a nation's most competitive citizens, but it will also mean more competition for the least competitive citizens, thus raising both excitement and anxiety.
What is the speaker's final message regarding the audience's perspective on future globalization?
-The speaker's final message is that the audience, being competitive citizens, should be more excited than nervous about future globalization, but they should also be mindful of the challenges it presents to the least competitive citizens.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Redefining Globalization

The speaker begins by challenging the traditional image of globalization as cargo ships and containers, suggesting that future globalization will be different and more abstract. They aim to change the audience's perception of globalization, raising both excitement and anxiety levels. The speaker introduces the concept of 'arbitrage' as the driving force behind globalization, explaining how companies exploit differences in what countries are good at producing. The focus has been on physical goods due to the ease of shipping them across borders compared to services, which are more challenging to globalize because they require the service provider and buyer to be in the same place. The speaker hints at digital technology as a game-changer in this context.

05:01

🚀 The Digital Transformation of Globalization

This paragraph delves into how digital technology is enabling 'telework migration,' where people can work remotely across borders. The speaker discusses the economic incentives for this shift, using the example of salary differences between a US and Polish accountant. They outline four factors facilitating this transformation: domestic telecommuting, online freelancing platforms like Upwork, machine translation advancements, and advanced telecommunications technologies such as telepresence and telepresence robots. These developments are making it profitable and technically feasible for service providers to work in one country while serving clients in another, thus expanding the scope of globalization beyond physical goods.

10:03

📈 The Accelerating Pace of Globalization

The speaker emphasizes the rapid pace at which digital technology is advancing, using the comparison of an iPhone's computational power to that of the Apollo 11 mission. They illustrate the exponential growth in our ability to transmit, store, and process information, which is doubling approximately every two years. This acceleration is making once-implausible concepts like instant, free machine translation a reality. The speaker concludes by reflecting on the implications of this rapid change for globalization, suggesting that it will involve more 'doing' than 'making,' and will bring both opportunities and challenges for competitive and less competitive citizens alike.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Globalization

Globalization refers to the process of increased interconnectedness and interdependence among countries through the exchange of goods, services, information, and culture. In the video, the speaker aims to shift the audience's perception of globalization from merely the exchange of physical goods to the exchange of services and actions facilitated by digital technology.

💡Arbitrage

Arbitrage in the context of the video means exploiting differences in markets to make a profit. The speaker explains that globalization has been driven by companies taking advantage of countries' comparative advantages in producing certain goods, which is a form of arbitrage.

💡Services

Services are intangible products that include actions or performances rather than physical items. The video discusses how globalization has traditionally focused on goods, but the speaker argues that digital technology is making it easier to globalize services, which have been historically harder to 'ship' across borders.

💡Digital Technology

Digital technology encompasses the tools and systems based on digital electronics that aid various human activities. The speaker highlights how digital technology is changing the landscape of globalization by enabling 'tel-migration,' allowing for the provision of services across borders without physical presence.

💡Tel-migration

Tel-migration is a term coined by the speaker to describe the phenomenon of people working remotely in one country while providing services to another. It is a key concept in the video, illustrating how digital technology is breaking down barriers to the globalization of services.

💡Telecommuting

Telecommuting is the practice of working from home or another location outside the office. The speaker uses telecommuting as an example of how companies are adapting to remote work, which could lead to the global expansion of telecommuting and the hiring of foreign freelancers.

💡Freelancing Platforms

Freelancing platforms are online marketplaces that connect freelancers with clients seeking services. The speaker mentions platforms like Upwork, which facilitate the buying and selling of services online, making it easier for companies to find and hire foreign freelancers.

💡Machine Translation

Machine translation is the automatic translation of text or speech from one language to another by computer systems. The video emphasizes the advancements in machine translation, which are making it easier for freelancers from different linguistic backgrounds to offer their services globally.

💡Telepresence

Telepresence refers to technology that gives a person the feeling of being present at a location other than their physical location. The speaker discusses telepresence rooms and robots as examples of how advanced telecommunications are making remote service provision more effective and personal.

💡Moore's Law

Moore's Law is the observation that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles about every two years, leading to exponential growth in computing power. The speaker uses Moore's Law to illustrate the rapid pace of technological advancement, which is accelerating the process of tel-migration and the globalization of services.

💡Competitiveness

Competitiveness in the video is related to the ability of individuals or nations to compete effectively in the global market. The speaker concludes by noting that while globalization presents more opportunities for competitive individuals, it also brings more competition for those who are less competitive, thus raising both excitement and anxiety about the future of globalization.

Highlights

The speaker aims to change the audience's perception of globalization and to evoke a mix of anxiety and excitement about its future.

Globalization has traditionally been associated with the movement of goods rather than services, due to the ease of shipping physical items across borders.

The concept of 'arbitrage' is central to globalization, with companies exploiting differences in what countries are good at producing.

Services have been less globalized due to the technical difficulty of delivering them across borders, requiring the service provider and buyer to be in the same place.

Digital technology is breaking down barriers to service globalization, enabling 'telework migration' where people work remotely across borders.

Economic incentives for tewerk migration are significant, with large salary differences between countries creating a potential for cost savings.

The speaker introduces the idea of 'telework migration' facilitated by digital technology, allowing for remote work across national borders.

Domestic telecommuting is expanding to a global scale, with companies adapting to include remote foreign workers.

Online freelancing platforms like Upwork are making it easier to buy and sell services globally, increasing the accessibility of foreign freelancers.

Machine translation has improved dramatically, becoming instant and free, and is set to revolutionize the availability of foreign freelancers.

Advanced telecommunications, such as telepresence and telepresence robots, are creating virtual co-presence, enhancing remote work interactions.

The pace of digital technology advancement is rapid, with processing speeds doubling every couple of years, accelerating the potential for tewerk migration.

An example given is the exponential increase in computing power between the Apollo 11 mission and modern smartphones, illustrating the rapid progress in technology.

The speaker predicts that future globalization will involve more 'doing' than 'making', with digital technology facilitating the globalization of services.

Globalization presents both opportunities and challenges, offering more chances for competitive individuals while increasing competition for others.

The audience is encouraged to view future globalization with a mix of nervousness for the least competitive and excitement for the opportunities it may bring.