What makes government legitimate in the Middle East? | reTHINK TANK

Summary

This script explores the complex factors contributing to government legitimacy in the Middle East, challenging the notion that nation-states or religious adherence automatically confer legitimacy. It examines the roles of tradition, tribal loyalty, religion, and fear, and discusses the impact of social contracts and good governance. The script suggests that while there's no one-size-fits-all solution, a new generation's demand for accountable governance could be a unifying force, warning current governments to adapt or risk irrelevance.

Takeaways

• 😱 The Islamic State's rejection of state boundaries and its brutality shocked the Middle East.
• 🏛️ The 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement is often seen as the 'original sin' for drawing the lines of the modern Middle East.
• 🌐 Despite artificial borders, governments can still gain legitimacy and craft national identity.
• 🏙️ The Arab Spring demonstrated that even homogeneous nation-states like Egypt can experience upheaval.
• 👥 The United Arab Emirates' diverse population has not been significantly affected by regional instability.
• 🕌 Religion, particularly Islam, plays a significant role in Middle Eastern governments' legitimacy.
• 📜 Lebanon's confessional system attempts to balance power among different religious groups, but has led to conflict.
• 📊 Qatar's constitution illustrates a 'social contract' where citizens trade certain freedoms for state services.
• 🔍 Good governance and social contracts alone do not guarantee legitimacy; stability is also crucial.
• 👑 The stability of Arab monarchies is not guaranteed, and recent history shows a mix of survival and overthrow.
• 🌟 A generational shift is occurring, with younger generations seeking legitimacy based on good governance rather than just ethnicity or religion.

Q & A

What was the Islamic State's stance on existing state boundaries in the Middle East?

The Islamic State shocked the Middle East not only because of its brutality, but also because it openly rejected existing state boundaries.

What is the significance of the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement in the context of the Middle East?

The 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement is often suggested as the 'original sin' for drawing the lines of the modern Middle East, despite many states dating their identities to before the colonial era.

How can governments gain legitimacy in the eyes of their citizens despite artificial borders?

Governments can gain legitimacy by crafting national identity and providing services, which can lead to recognition and acceptance of authority by the citizenry.

What is the role of a nation-state's homogeneity in its legitimacy?

A nation-state's homogeneity in culture, language, or ethnicity doesn't guarantee legitimacy by default, as seen with Egypt experiencing the Arab Spring despite being a nation-state.

How does the United Arab Emirates' diversity contrast with its stability during the Arab Spring?

The UAE was unaffected by the Arab Spring and has had stable rule and prosperity, despite its citizenry being diverse with few Emiratis and a large non-Emirati population.

Is Islam the key to government legitimacy in the Middle East?

Contrary to popular opinion, Islamic law per se might not be the key to legitimacy; rather, its mention can give people a sense that their beliefs are represented.

What is the significance of Lebanon's confessional constitution in terms of government legitimacy?

Lebanon's confessional constitution reserves political positions for different faiths, reflecting the religious diversity and the fears of tyranny among different religious groups.

How does Qatar's constitution provide insight into what makes Middle Eastern governments legitimate?

Qatar's constitution declares Islam as the state religion and guarantees state care for the young and free education, suggesting a 'social contract' where citizens receive state services in exchange for relinquishing certain freedoms.

What is the role of social contracts and good governance in the legitimacy of Middle Eastern governments?

Social contracts and good governance may form the basis of legitimacy, but a country needs to be otherwise stable for a social contract to work, as seen in Iraq where services were more valued than efficiency.

Why might the conventional wisdom about Arab monarchies being more stable be misleading?

The conventional wisdom that Arab monarchies are more stable, especially in diverse countries, doesn't conform to recent history, as monarchies in Egypt, Libya, and Afghanistan have been overthrown, while oil-rich monarchies have survived by paying off opposition.

What is the current generational change in the Middle East regarding government legitimacy?

A generational change is underway where the new generation is unwilling to base legitimacy solely on ethnic identity or religion, and instead, demands for good governance may unite the young across the region.