Using Weekly Profiles for Daily Bias (Simplified)
Summary
TLDREste video introduce el concepto de perfiles semanales y cómo utilizarlos para obtener un sesgo diario en el trading. El presentador explica tres perfiles semanales de alta probabilidad: la expansión clásica, la reversión a mitad de semana y la reversión de consolidación. Se enfatiza en evitar el trading los lunes y antes del primer evento de noticias de alto impacto de la semana, utilizando el calendario económico como guía. A través de ejemplos detallados, se muestra cómo identificar estos perfiles en gráficos reales y aplicar un protocolo semanal para predecir movimientos de precios, maximizando las oportunidades de trading con un enfoque sistemático.
Takeaways
- 📊 Los perfiles semanales se usan para determinar el sesgo diario analizando las velas semanales y su desglose en gráficos diarios.
- 📉 Hay tres perfiles semanales principales: expansión clásica, reversión a mitad de semana y reversión de consolidación.
- 🚫 Se recomienda evitar operar los lunes ya que no son días de expansión y suelen preceder a eventos importantes de noticias.
- 🗓️ Es importante utilizar el calendario económico para filtrar eventos de alto impacto y planificar las operaciones en torno a ellos.
- 🔍 Definir rangos de precio de descuento (PD) de cuatro horas o superiores es crucial para anticipar reversiones en el marco semanal.
- 🔄 Un cambio en el estado de entrega se utiliza para confirmar las reversiones semanales, observando tiempo, precio y cierre a través de velas opuestas.
- 📅 Los martes, miércoles y jueves se consideran los días más propicios para operar según el perfil semanal en curso.
- 📈 La expansión clásica se espera de martes a jueves, mientras que la reversión a mitad de semana y la reversión de consolidación afectan principalmente a jueves y viernes.
- 💡 Es esencial adaptar las estrategias de trading al perfil semanal identificado para aumentar la probabilidad de éxito.
- 🎓 El enfoque conservador de evitar operar antes de noticias de alto impacto y los lunes puede mejorar la efectividad y reducir el riesgo.
Q & A
¿Qué es un perfil semanal y cómo se traduce en un gráfico?
-Un perfil semanal se basa en la comprensión del open, low, high, close (apertura, mínimo, máximo, cierre) de la vela semanal. Este concepto se desglosa en un gráfico diario, donde cinco velas diarias conforman lo que se considera un perfil semanal.
¿Cuántos tipos de perfiles semanales menciona el ICT y cuántos se explican en el vídeo?
-El ICT ha dado seis tipos de perfiles semanales, pero en el vídeo se refinan y se explican solo tres perfiles que se consideran de alta probabilidad.
¿Qué es la semana de expansión clásica y cuándo ocurre?
-La semana de expansión clásica ocurre cuando el lunes o martes forman el reverso y el precio se expande en la dirección opuesta hasta el jueves. Se caracteriza por una clara secuencia de apertura, mínimo, máximo y cierre de la vela semanal.
¿Cómo se utiliza el perfil de reversión de mitad de semana para obtener un sesgo diario?
-El perfil de reversión de mitad de semana se utiliza cuando el miércoles forma un reverso y el precio se expande desde ese punto por el resto de la semana. Esto establece un sesgo diario para el jueves y el viernes, anticipando una continuación del rango semanal lejos del punto de reversión.
¿Qué es el perfil de reversión de consolidación?
-El perfil de reversión de consolidación ocurre cuando el precio se revierte un jueves y se expande en la dirección opuesta hasta el viernes. Este perfil ofrece un sesgo claro para el trading del viernes, donde el objetivo principal será el lado opuesto del rango consolidado.
¿Por qué se recomienda evitar el trading los lunes bajo el marco de perfiles semanales?
-Se recomienda evitar el trading los lunes porque bajo los tres perfiles mencionados, el lunes nunca es un día de expansión. Además, el lunes raramente cae antes de un evento de noticias de alto impacto, lo que significa que se anticipa acción de precio de alta resistencia, lo cual se prefiere evitar.
¿Cómo se utiliza el calendario económico en el protocolo semanal?
-El calendario económico se utiliza para filtrar eventos de noticias significativos de alto impacto y evitar el trading los días antes del primer conductor de noticias de alto impacto significativo de la semana. Esto ayuda a evitar quedar atrapado en la acumulación previa al lanzamiento y favorece el trading en condiciones de alta probabilidad.
¿Cuáles son los pasos del protocolo semanal para aplicar en el mercado?
-Los pasos incluyen evitar el trading los lunes, no operar los días previos al primer evento de noticias de alto impacto de la semana, definir los PDAs de marco temporal superior para enmarcar un reverso dentro de un perfil semanal definido, y observar un cambio en el estado de entrega para confirmar el reverso semanal.
¿Qué es un cambio en el estado de entrega y cómo se identifica?
-Un cambio en el estado de entrega se identifica por tiempo, precio y un cierre a través de velas cerradas opuestas. Es el momento en que el flujo de órdenes de marco temporal superior está cambiando dentro de la semana y se utiliza como confirmación para los reversos.
¿Cómo se determinan los objetivos semanales según el vídeo?
-Los objetivos semanales se determinan utilizando el entendimiento de los perfiles semanales y el análisis del calendario económico para predecir la expansión del precio después de eventos de noticias significativos, y luego observando un cambio en el estado de entrega para confirmar la dirección de la expansión.
Outlines
📈 Uso de perfiles semanales para determinar el sesgo diario
Este video introduce el concepto de utilizar perfiles semanales para establecer un sesgo diario en el trading, explicando los fundamentos de los perfiles semanales a través del análisis de velas semanales y cómo se descomponen en un gráfico diario. Se presenta una simplificación del sistema a tres perfiles semanales de alta probabilidad: expansión clásica, reversión a mitad de semana y reversión de consolidación, cada uno con características y estrategias de trading específicas. Se enfatiza en la importancia de comprender estos perfiles para mejorar la eficiencia en la obtención de un sesgo diario, junto con un recordatorio de recursos adicionales para una comprensión más profunda.
🗓️ Protocolo semanal para aplicar perfiles semanales
El segundo segmento del video detalla un protocolo semanal paso a paso para aplicar los perfiles semanales en el trading en vivo, comenzando con la recomendación de evitar el trading los lunes. Se destaca la importancia de utilizar el calendario económico para filtrar eventos de alto impacto y cómo esto informa los días propicios para el trading, evitando los días previos a estos eventos significativos. Este enfoque conservador busca asegurar condiciones de trading de alta probabilidad y evitar ser atrapado en la acumulación previa al lanzamiento de noticias de alto impacto. Se concluye con ejemplos prácticos en gráficos para identificar perfiles semanales y determinar el sesgo de trading, subrayando la importancia de la observación de un cambio en el estado de entrega como confirmación del sesgo semanal.
🔍 Aplicación práctica del protocolo semanal
El último segmento profundiza en la aplicación práctica del protocolo semanal, presentando ejemplos detallados de cómo observar y confirmar reversales semanales mediante la identificación de cambios en el estado de entrega. Se enfatiza en la secuenciación de tiempo, precio y cierre a través de velas opuestas para confirmar estos cambios, proporcionando una estrategia clara para anticipar y actuar sobre movimientos expansivos en los días específicos de la semana. Este enfoque sistemático ilustra cómo los traders pueden utilizar una metodología estructurada para mejorar su precisión y eficacia en el mercado, concluyendo con un resumen de los pasos clave del protocolo y un llamado a la acción para los espectadores para aplicar estos conceptos en su trading.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Perfiles semanales
💡Sesgo diario
💡Expansión clásica
💡Reversión de mitad de semana
💡Reversión de consolidación
💡Evitar el trading los lunes
💡Calendario económico
💡Arreglos de descuento y prima PD
💡Cambio de estado de entrega
💡Objetivo semanal
Highlights
Introduction to using weekly profiles for daily trading bias.
Explanation of weekly profile concept based on weekly candle patterns.
Breakdown of weekly candles into daily charts for profile analysis.
Efficient daily bias determination using three specific weekly profiles.
Description of the 'Classic Expansion Week' profile.
Analysis of bullish and bearish weekly candles in Classic Expansion Week.
Introduction to the 'Midweek Reversal' weekly profile.
Detailed explanation of bullish and bearish midweek reversals.
Overview of the 'Consolidation Reversal' weekly profile.
Analyzing bullish and bearish scenarios in the Consolidation Reversal profile.
Protocol for applying weekly profiles in live market trading.
Avoiding Monday trading and significance of high-impact news.
Using an economic calendar to filter significant news events.
Protocol steps for applying weekly profiles, including news event analysis.
Defining high time frame PD arrays and identifying weekly objectives.
Importance of observing changes in state of delivery for confirming reversals.
Transcripts
foreign
what's going on everyone welcome back to
another video and this one I'll be
talking about a simple process of using
weekly profiles to get your daily bias
just to mention I will be sharing
everything you need to know on weekly
profiles in this video but if you want a
really detailed explanation you can go
down below and click the linked PDF in
the description and that's going to go
even farther in depth on this topic with
that being said we can start by
answering the question of what is a
weekly profile and how does it translate
on an actual chart the basis of this
concept is framed around the
understanding of the open low high close
and open high low close of the weekly
Candle on the left we have a single
bullish weekly candle which is open low
I close and on the right we have a
single bearish weekly candle which is
open high low close when you break the
single weekly candle down into a daily
chart these five daily candles are what
we consider a weekly profile using this
understanding of how the weekly candle
prints on a chart and the three profiles
will be showing you in the next part of
this video we're able to get really
efficient daily bias just as a quick
disclaimer yes ICT has given six types
of weekly profiles which you can find in
the core content videos but I ever find
my system down to only three profiles
which I consider high probability so
that's what I'll be sharing with you
here the first weekly profile to
understand is the classic expansion week
this is one Monday or Tuesday form the
reversal and price expands in the
opposing Direction into Thursday on the
left here we can see a bullish classic
expansion week with the clear open low
high and close of the weekly candle as
previously mentioned here on the daily
chart either Monday or Tuesday for May
load of the week at a four hour or above
discount PD array and price expands off
that point through Thursday into the
weekly objective same idea here on the
right but this is a bearish classic
expansion week with the Open high low
and close of the weekly candle on the
daily chart we expect Monday or Tuesday
to trade higher into a four hour premium
array to form a high of the week and
expand to the downside of that reversal
through Thursday into the weekly
objective from the point of reversal
this profile offers bias for Tuesday
Wednesday and Thursday's trading as for
Friday using the understanding of the
TGIF setup we do not anticipate a
continuation of the weekly range on this
day I have a video going over the
function of the TGIF setup if you are
not already familiar with it and I will
also have that video linked down below
the next profile we're going to cover is
the midweek reversal this is when
Wednesday forms a reversal and price
expands away from that point for the
remainder of the week on the left here
is an example of a bullish midweek
reversal the weekly candle is an open
low high and close but the anticipation
that the closing price will be near or
at the high of the week looking at a
daily chart Monday or Tuesday can either
be Consolidated or offered to down close
candles away from the weekly draw which
can be considered a Judas swing on
Wednesday price makes a move down into a
four hour or above discount array and
expands off that price point into the
weekly objective same idea here on the
right but this is showing a bearish
midweek reversal the weekly candle is an
open high low and close with again the
anticipation that price will close near
or at the low of the week here on a
daily chart Monday or Tuesday will
either be two up close candles
considering a Judah swing or will be
relatively Consolidated near the opening
price on Wednesday price will trade up
into a four hour or above premium array
and expand off that price point to the
downside into the weekly objective under
the midweek reversal profile we have
established daily bias for both Thursday
and Friday where we anticipate a
continuation of the weekly range away
from the reversal point in the form of
expansion the third and final weekly
profile is the consolidation reversal
this is when price reverses on a
Thursday and expands in the opposing
direction through Friday on the left
here is an example of a bullish
consolidation reversal the weekly candle
is an open low high and close and just
like the midweek reverso we are
anticipating the closing price to be
near or at the high of the week looking
on the daily chart Monday through
Wednesday will be Consolidated around
the opening price of the week on
Thursday price manipulates the external
low of the Consolidated range and
expands off that price point through
Friday into the weekly objective and
again on the right we are seeing a
bearish consolidation reversal the
weekly candle is an open high low close
with the closing price being near or at
the low of the week moving to a daily
chart again Monday through Wednesday
will be Consolidated near the opening
price in the internal range Thursday
price manipulates the external high of
the Consolidated range and then expands
away towards the weekly draw through
Friday this profile offers clear bias
for Friday's trading where the main
target will be the opposing side of the
Consolidated range now that you
understand the basics of the three
weekly profiles and how they offer daily
bias for specific days we can go over
the actual protocol that you can follow
each week to apply this in a market
that's trading live the first step of
the protocol and one of the most
important is to avoid trading on Mondays
under the three profiles I previously
mentioned Monday is never an expansion
day it is only ever a Juda swing a
consolidation or a reversal number two
significant high impact news never falls
on a Monday with the understanding that
Monday will always fall before a high
impact news event in the week we can
anticipate High Resistance price action
which we're going to want to avoid the
third and final reason is if you were to
attempt to trade Monday when relying on
a weekly profile framework you have no
data for the week to determine what the
profile is likely going to be the only
profile which Monday sometimes plays a
significance in is a classic expansion
week if Monday happens to trade into a
higher time frame PD array to reverse
price considering each of those factors
it's highly in your favor to avoid this
day of trading and simply keep your
charts closed the next step of the
weekly protocol is to take advantage of
the economic calendar if you search
forexfactory.com calendar this is the
page you'll be taken to this is where
you can find the news events which are
taking place throughout the week across
all asset classes our first step here is
to filter out the noise of all the
unnecessary news events as all we're
concerned about are the significant high
impact news events which are taking
place during the week if we press filter
in the top right we get this drop down
of all these options under expected
impact we want to remove the orange
yellow and gray folder we can keep each
event type and under currencies you're
going to want to select the one which is
correlated with the pair you are trading
I'm using indices as an example so I
will select USD once I click apply
filter you can now see that our list
only contains red folder USD news now
that your economic calendar is properly
filtered we can go into the question of
how do you actually use this to your
advantage the main rule under this
framework is to avoid trading the dates
before the first significant high impact
news driver of the week while each of
these events show red folders they're
each weighed differently in their amount
of significance the one rule of thumb to
follow to know which news events are
significant on the market is to note
either fomc press conference or any red
folded news event that is released at 8
30. using that rule on this current week
we would consider this fomc press
conference at 2 30 on Wednesday as the
first significant high impact news
driver of the week that would mean
regardless of the price chart we would
be avoiding trading Monday and Tuesday
another example here shows the first
significant high impact news driver on 8
30 on Monday but if we recall the first
rule is that we don't trade Monday so we
will look to Tuesday as the first day of
the week and that has an 8 30 high
impact news driver so we consider
Tuesday as the first day of potential
trading moving on to another example
it's clear to see here that there is no
significant high impact News until CPI
which is 8 30 on Thursday that would
mean we consider Monday Tuesday and
Wednesday as a low probability
conditions and we would not be seeking
trades until Thursday the logic of the
economic calendar is that the days prior
to a high impact news event of the week
it is likely to be Consolidated or
accumulated the high impact news event
is when volatility is released into the
market and the following days can be
expansive well this may seem like a
conservative approach to the market it's
a sacrifice being made to ensure that
you're trading in high probability
conditions that are like likely to offer
expansion instead of being caught up in
pre-release accumulation with the first
two steps of the weekly protocol covered
we can move to a price chart and
continue on with a real example here on
the chart this vertical line is noting
the weak open rule number one as already
mentioned is avoiding Monday's trading
now that Monday is traded the next step
is to look at the economic calendar to
see which day has the first high impact
news release on the screen now you can
see that 8 30 unemployment claims on
Thursday is the first significant news
driver of the week that means that we
will continue to avoid price through
Wednesday now that Monday through
Wednesday has traded we now have the
advantage to use those three days as
data for the weekly profile it makes it
easier to predict the following days
this now takes us into the third step of
the weekly protocol which is defining
the higher time frame PD arrays four
hour and above for price to reverse from
and the opposing weekly objective here
on a four hour chart using a really
simple 50 FIB anchoring from low to high
the dealing range we can see prices were
tracing into a discount fair value gap
on the opposing end you can see we have
relative equal highs which is acting as
a draw and can be used as the weekly
objective this simple framework here is
good enough to anticipate a move to the
upside on our weekly objective
considering it is in line with one of
our three weekly profiles which would be
a midweek reversal
the fourth and final element of this
weekly protocol is to observe a change
in state of delivery to confirm the
weekly reversal on the left we have a
graph showing a bullish change in state
of delivery the three parts to defining
a change in state of delivery are time
price and a close through opposing
closed candles on the left here we have
an example of a bullish change in state
of delivery the element of time is the
day of week we are anticipating a low
being formed within a defined weekly
profile price is pairing the day of the
week with a four hour or above discount
PD array lastly we look for price to
close above the down close candle or
candles which engage the hard time frame
discount array so this candle here would
depict a change in state of delivery
same ID here but for a bearish change in
state of delivery time is the day of
week we are anticipating a reversal
under a defined loopy profile price is
the four hour above premium PD array the
price is engaging and finally we have a
close below the up close candle or
candles that ran into the premium this
outlines the moment that higher time
frame order flow is Shifting within the
week and is used as a confirmation for
reversals now moving back to our
previous chart example ideally we want
to be looking for a change in state of
delivery on the hourly chart but this is
a good example when the hourly chart
isn't as clear we can move down to the
30 minute to get a more refined view on
price on a 30 minute chart it's much
easier now to see the consecutive down
close candles which engage our hard time
frame discount array remembering the
previous criteria of a change in saved
delivery we have time which is price
reversing on a Wednesday which falls
under a midweek reversal we are pairing
time with price on this reversal with a
four hour discount fair value Gap and
here on this candle we have a close
above the consecutive down close candles
with each part of our weekly protocol
being met we now have daily bias for
Thursday and Friday and can anticipate
an upside expansion on both days
to cover one more example using this
weekly protocol we'll move on to the
following week again step number one is
avoiding Monday's trading now that
Monday is printed we want to go to the
economic calendar and note the first
significant high impact news driver of
the week with the pop-up on the screen
again you can see that Thursday 8 30
unemployment claims is the first
significant high impact news driver of
the week so that means that we will be
sitting out Monday through Wednesday
using Monday through Wednesday price
action as data to identify the current
weekly profile it's clear to see that
the market is in a consolidation so what
we want to do is Mark out the external
High and the external low of that range
now we wait for time and price to line
up to see if the market will engage
either side of the external range on a
Thursday which will confirm a
consolidation reversal profile observing
Thursday's price action we can confirm a
consolidation reversal profile and now
have daily bias for Friday's trading
anticipating a continuation of upside
expansion time is the reversal taking
place on a Thursday price is the
engagement of the external consolidation
low and here we have a close above the
consecutive down close candles which ran
into the low which is a bullish change
in state of delivery as anticipated
under the consolidation reversal profile
price expands higher on Friday through
the opposing end of the consolidation
range
link down below you can find a nine
minute live walkthrough of my executions
on this trade
to do a quick recap of what I've covered
in this video the four weekly protocol
steps are number one avoid Monday's
trading number two no trading days prior
to the first significant high impact
news release of the week number three to
find four hour and above PD arrays to
frame a reversal within a defined weekly
profile and number four observe a change
in state of delivery ideally on the
hourly chart the beauty of this way of
operating is that you don't have to be a
master analyst on these charts you
simply need to follow a system and
that's what I've given you here this is
Baseline for weekly profiles and should
be simple enough for anyone to apply if
they wish that's all I have for you in
this video I hope you enjoyed and I will
see you in the next one
thank you
[Music]
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