Using Weekly Profiles for Daily Bias (Simplified)

Summary

This video introduces a simple yet effective method for utilizing weekly profiles to determine daily market bias. By analyzing the open, low, high, and close of weekly candles, the video breaks down three main types of weekly profiles—classic expansion, midweek reversal, and consolidation reversal. It also highlights a four-step weekly protocol, including avoiding Monday trading, utilizing economic calendars, identifying key PD arrays, and observing changes in state of delivery. The approach offers a structured framework for traders, focusing on high-probability conditions rather than complex chart analysis.

Takeaways

• 📊 Weekly profiles break down a single weekly candle into five daily candles, allowing traders to anticipate daily bias based on the weekly structure.
• 🔥 There are three high-probability weekly profiles: Classic Expansion Week, Midweek Reversal, and Consolidation Reversal, each providing specific daily bias patterns.
• 🚀 Classic Expansion Week occurs when a reversal forms Monday or Tuesday and price expands through Thursday, offering bias mainly for Tuesday to Thursday.
• 🔄 Midweek Reversal occurs when a reversal forms on Wednesday, leading to expansion for the remainder of the week and bias primarily for Thursday and Friday.
• 🛑 Consolidation Reversal happens when price consolidates Monday-Wednesday and reverses on Thursday, giving clear bias for Friday’s expansion.
• ⛔ Avoid trading on Mondays because it is rarely an expansion day, typically presents a Judas swing or consolidation, and lacks weekly profile data.
• 📰 Use the economic calendar to identify the first significant high-impact news event of the week and avoid trading prior to that day to reduce low-probability setups.
• 📌 Identify 4-hour or higher PD arrays (premium or discount) to frame potential reversals and weekly objectives, providing structure for trades.
• ✅ Confirm reversals using a change in state of delivery, which combines time (day of week), price (PD array engagement), and candle close (above/below opposite closes).
• 📅 Following the weekly protocol ensures trading in high-probability conditions, simplifying market analysis and allowing traders to focus on system-based decisions.
• 💡 The combination of weekly profiles, PD arrays, and economic calendar analysis allows traders to anticipate daily bias without needing to predict market movements intuitively.
• 📈 Post-news volatility often drives expansion; understanding timing relative to high-impact news helps align trades with likely market movement.

Q & A

What is a weekly profile in trading?

A weekly profile is a representation of how a weekly candle (open, high, low, close) breaks down into daily price action, providing a framework to anticipate daily bias for the trading week.

What are the three high-probability weekly profiles discussed in the video?

The three high-probability weekly profiles are: 1) Classic Expansion Week, 2) Midweek Reversal, and 3) Consolidation Reversal.

How does a Classic Expansion Week form and what is its daily bias?

A Classic Expansion Week forms when a reversal occurs on Monday or Tuesday, and price expands in the opposing direction through Thursday. The daily bias is for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, while Friday usually does not continue the weekly range.

What defines a Midweek Reversal and which days show trading bias?

A Midweek Reversal occurs when price reverses on Wednesday and expands for the rest of the week. The daily bias is primarily for Thursday and Friday, anticipating expansion away from the reversal point.

Explain the Consolidation Reversal profile and its trading bias.

The Consolidation Reversal profile forms when price consolidates Monday through Wednesday and then reverses on Thursday. The daily bias is mainly for Friday, expecting price to expand toward the opposing side of the consolidation range.

Why should traders avoid trading on Mondays according to the weekly protocol?

Mondays are often non-expansion days, typically forming Judas swings or consolidations. High-impact news rarely occurs on Monday, and there is insufficient data to identify the weekly profile, making trading riskier.

How should traders use the economic calendar in this protocol?

Traders should identify the first significant high-impact news event of the week and avoid trading on days prior. This ensures trading occurs during high-probability, volatile conditions instead of pre-release consolidation.

What is a PD (Premium/Discount) array and how is it used?

A PD array is a high time frame (4H or above) area where price is likely to reverse. Discount arrays are potential bullish reversal zones, and premium arrays are potential bearish reversal zones. They help define entry points and weekly objectives.

What is a 'Change in State of Delivery' and why is it important?

A Change in State of Delivery occurs when price action aligns with time (day of week), price (engagement with PD array), and a closing pattern through opposing candles. It confirms the weekly reversal and provides validated daily bias for trading.

How can traders confirm a weekly profile using daily price action?

Traders observe the first few trading days after Monday, mark high and low points, and check for engagement with PD arrays. When a change in state of delivery occurs, it confirms the profile and provides directional bias for the remainder of the week.

What is the TGIF setup mentioned in the video?

The TGIF setup refers to the idea that Friday usually does not continue the weekly range expansion, particularly in Classic Expansion Weeks. Traders use this to anticipate limited movement on Fridays in certain profiles.

Why is this weekly profile system considered suitable for non-expert traders?

The system provides a structured framework with clear rules—avoiding Mondays, using economic calendars, marking PD arrays, and confirming reversals with state of delivery—allowing traders to follow high-probability setups without needing advanced chart analysis skills.